Bob Marshall’s July 2026 BLS Analysis for Recruiters; 8/7/26

July BLS Coaching Preface

*Be sure to visit our New Website @ www.themarshallplan.org

**“HIRE WIRE” – The Podcast for Recruiters**

Continuing with this BLS report—and again thanks to Kevin Franks, our marketing guru—we will provide the monthly podcast for recruiters, “Hire Wire”, the deep dive that explores my report in a short, 15 minute or so, audio format. So, for those of you who have asked for a shorter summary, we now have that available. Just click on the following links and enjoy the audio.

Here is the link:  https://youtu.be/p_R3nxSQTXI

Recruiting Has Changed. Human Nature Hasn’t.

After more than 46 years of uninterrupted recruiting, I’ve learned one lesson that has stood the test of time:

“Technology changes. Markets change. Recruiting fundamentals don’t.”

The recruiting business is changing faster than ever…

Artificial Intelligence is transforming sourcing.

Automation is streamlining processes.

Candidates are harder to reach.

Hiring Managers have less time than ever.

And many recruiters are working harder…yet producing less.

Why?

Because technology has changed.

Human behavior hasn’t.

After more than 46 years in this profession, I’ve recruited through recessions, hiring booms, labor shortages, technology revolutions, and every type of market you can imagine.

I’ve watched fax machines disappear, email replace letters, LinkedIn transform recruiting, and now AI reshape our profession.

But one thing has never changed.

The highest-producing recruiters aren’t necessarily the smartest.

They aren’t the busiest.

And they certainly aren’t the ones making the most calls.

They’re the recruiters who consistently gain access to Hiring Managers, uncover the real hiring need, ask better questions, build stronger relationships, and spend their time on activities that actually generate revenue.

That’s what I teach.

Not scripts.

Not gimmicks.

Not the latest recruiting fad.

I teach systems that continue to work no matter how technology evolves.

If you’re looking to build a recruiting business instead of simply working a recruiting desk, my coaching can help you:

• Develop trusted relationships with Hiring Managers instead of competing with everyone else.

• Secure higher-quality job orders you can actually fill.

• Build a predictable business development process instead of hoping the phone rings.

• Eliminate low-value activity and focus on what produces placements.

• Create a realistic path toward $500,000—and beyond—in annual production.

This isn’t theory.

These are field-tested systems developed over more than four decades, refined through thousands of successful placements, and proven by recruiters across every type of market.

No long-term contracts.

No complicated programs.

Just practical coaching you can begin using immediately.

David’s Story

Several years ago, a recruiter I’ll call David contacted me because he felt stuck.

He wasn’t failing.

In fact, by most standards, he was doing well.

He arrived early.

Stayed late.

Made plenty of calls.

Interviewed candidates every day.

His calendar was full.

His activity level was impressive.

Yet his production had reached a ceiling he couldn’t seem to break through.

When we reviewed his desk together, the problem became obvious.

It wasn’t effort.

It wasn’t experience.

It wasn’t the market.

It was where he was investing his time.

Like many recruiters, he had become extremely busy…but not always productive.

So we changed that.

We redesigned how he qualified job orders.

We strengthened his Hiring Manager relationships.

We built a daily process centered on revenue-producing activities instead of simply staying busy.

Within a year, David crossed the million-dollar billing mark.

What changed?

Not his work ethic.

His focus.

Because in recruiting, success usually isn’t about doing more.

It’s about doing more of what matters.

If you’re ready to stop spinning your wheels and start building a recruiting business that consistently produces bigger fees, I’d be happy to talk with you.

Email: bob@themarshallplan.org

Call: 770-898-5550

TBMG International

Home of the $500K in 12 Months Program

Pointed in Approach. Precise in Delivery.

Bob Marshall began his recruiting career over 46 years ago at MR in Reno, NV.  In 1986 he established The Bob Marshall Group, International, where he has trained recruiters throughout the United States and also in the United Kingdom, Malta and Cyprus.  With a dedication to executive recruiting, he continues to offer his proven training systems to individuals, firms, and private corporations both domestic and in select international territories.  To learn more about his activities and descriptions of his products and services, contact him directly @770-898-5550/470-456-0386(cell); bob@themarshallplan.org; or visit his website @ www.TheMarshallPlan.org.

July Business Articles

Lack of AI training contributing to talent shortage 

SIA, Jake Tiger, July 28, 2026

Staffing an AI-focused workforce has become a priority for many US employers. However, rising demand highlights a shortage of not only AI skills but also the training resources that upskill workers, according to a new survey from Indeed and YouGov. 

The survey of more than 1,000 workers and hirers found that AI fluency has become a focus for many when hiring, with 59% of employers saying finding AI-native talent in the next year is essential and 45% saying they are actively seeking these workers. 

 At the same time, just 19% of job seekers felt fluent in AI, and only 32% said they had received proper AI training from their employer. 

The findings provide more evidence of a skills shortage in the labor market as employers aim to reshape workforces faster than employees can become familiar with AI. 

The survey also found a gap between the expectations of employers and workers, with the former saying AI should be more heavily integrated. For example, 58% of hirers expected AI to be used to automate repetitive tasks, while only 27% of workers said the same. 

Of the workers in the survey who considered themselves AI natives, 77% said they had received adequate training; however, for workers who were yet to heavily integrate AI, only 15% said they had received proper training. 

With the reported lack of corporate training resources on AI, many workers have started teaching themselves, as about 70% of workers surveyed said they have started experimenting with AI tools on the job. Only 8% of workers said they lacked the time to learn new AI skills. 

Younger workers are leading the charge when it comes to incorporating AI, with 35% of Gen Z workers considering themselves AI fluent — the largest percentage of any age group. Millennials trailed at 24%, while the overall workforce came in at 19%. 

AI engineers and data center field technicians among emerging roles

SIA, Craig Johnson, July 27, 2026

Digital transformation and AI are reshaping the tech workforce, but the impact is more nuanced than simple workforce expansion or automation, according to a new SIA report.

Companies are rethinking workforce composition, and jobs set to become more common include content engineers and data center field technician.

Tech “organizations are increasingly reporting productivity gains from AI-assisted development, automation and digital labor,” writes Amy Horvat, a senior research analyst at SIA and author of the report. “However, rather than eliminating the need for technology talent altogether, these gains are prompting companies to rethink workforce composition, skill requirements and career progression.”

There may be less need for junior developers and testers, but there is increasing demand for more experienced tech professionals.

Here are four job titles forecast to be more common as digital transformation expands:

Content engineer: Enable the creation and function of strong AI agents by delving into the details of how humans work, including their decision-making processes, and build detailed functional schematics to train and guide digital workers.

Data center field technician: Focus on physical AI infrastructure, including installation and maintenance of the massive amount of servers and wiring installed in data centers.

Forward-deployed engineer: Embed with specific clients to understand the specifics of the data, workflows and business context in order to design and customize technology solutions.

Full-stack agentic engineer: Manage applications across all technologies with a focus on understanding the AI tools available, as well as AI-native workflows used to connect them.

Robert Half Q2 revenue slips 2.8%; says hiring demand improving

SIA, Craig Johnson, July 24, 2026

Revenue at Robert Half fell 2.8% in the second quarter to $1.34 billion, while business accelerated in its technology staffing and perm placement business.

“Many of our small and midsize business clients continue to operate with lean organizations after several years of disciplined cost management,” CEO M. Keith Waddell said in a conference call with analysts on Thursday. “As confidence improves and strategic priorities advance, we’re seeing demand for specialized talent and consulting expertise to help execute those initiatives.”

Waddell added, “Hiring demand continues to improve and market conditions are increasingly more supportive of our business.”

Revenue at the professional staffing provider was above the $1.32 billion average estimate of analysts, according to Yahoo Finance. It was also above the midpoint of the company’s guidance for a decline of 4%.

Geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty persist, and inflation and war in the Middle East remain key concerns, Waddell said.  However, AI is still complementing, not replacing, the types of professionals Robert Half staffs.

“We’re seeing growing demand for candidates who combine deep domain expertise with AI fluency and the judgment required to apply these technologies effectively and responsibly, including verifying the accuracy of their outcomes,” he said.

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 44,000 Jobs in July; Almost 71% of New Job Creation (31,000) came from Small and Mid-sized Establishments; Annual Pay was Up 4.4%

ROSELAND, N.J. – August 5, 2026

Private sector employment increased by 44,000 jobs in July and pay was up 4.4% year-over-year according to the July ADP National Employment Report® produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”).  

The ADP National Employment Report is an independent measure of the labor market based on the anonymized weekly payroll data of more than 26 million private-sector employees in the United States.

ADP’s Pay Insights captures over 15 million individual pay change observations each month. Together, the jobs report and pay insights use ADP’s fine-grained data to provide a representative and high-frequency picture of the private-sector labor market.

*The June total number of jobs added was revised from 98,000 to 95,000.

“Job-changers are highly sensitive to real-time economic conditions, and their rapid pay growth implies supply constraints in parts of the labor market,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Typical hiring patterns, meanwhile, are changing as employers react to shifting macro-economic conditions.”

JOBS REPORT

Private employers added 44,000 jobs in July

Sector-level hiring was choppy last month but pay sent a clear signal. Year-over-year pay for job-changers accelerated to its fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Change in U.S. Private Employment:       44,000

Change by Industry

Goods-producing: <-3,000>

Natural resources/mining <-6,000>

Construction 1,000

Manufacturing 2,000

Service-providing: 47,000

Trade/transportation/utilities <-8,000>

Information 5,000

Financial activities 10,000

Professional/business services 9,000

Education/health services 36,000

Leisure/hospitality <-11,000>

Other services 6,000

Change by U.S. Regions

Northeast: 37,000

New England 16,000

Middle Atlantic 21,000

Midwest: <-9,000>

East North Central<-11,000>

West North Central 2,000

South: 9,000

South Atlantic <-8,000>

East South Central 2,000

West South Central 15,000

West: 7,000

Mountain <-4,000>

Pacific 11,000

Change by Establishment Size

Small establishments: 23,000

1-19 employees 27,000

20-49 employees <-4,000>

Medium establishments: 8,000

50-249 employees 2,000

250-499 employees 6,000

Large establishments: 13,000

500+ employees 13,000

PAY INSIGHTS

Pay growth for job-changers accelerated in July

Pay gains for job-stayers held steady at 4.4% last month, while pay growth for job-changers rose to 7%, the largest year-over-year increase since August 2025.

Median Change in Annual Pay

Job-Stayers 4.4%

Job-Changers 7.0%

Median Change in Annual Pay for Job-Stayers by Industry

Goods-producing:

Natural resources/mining 4.0%

Construction 4.5%

Manufacturing 5.0%

Service-providing:

Trade/transportation/utilities 4.4%

Information 4.0%

Financial activities 5.2%

Professional/business services 4.1%

Education/health services 4.1%

Leisure/hospitality 4.4%

Other services 4.1%

Median Change in Annual Pay for Job-Stayers by Firm Size

Small firms:

1-19 employees 2.4%

20-49 employees 4.0%

Medium firms:

50-249 employees 4.7%

250-499 employees 4.8%

Large firms:

500+ employees 4.8%

The August 2026 ADP National Employment Report will be released on September 2, 2026, at 8:15 a.m. ET.

Bottom-line: To my audience of recruiters, always remember this: Our ‘bread and butter’, especially on the contingency side of the house, has historically been, and continues to be, small and medium-sized client companies.  Along with the large companies, these companies need to be included in your niche!

Job Openings and Labor Turnover – June 2026

August 4^th, 2026

The number of job openings was little changed at 7,400,000 in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires were unchanged at 5,300,000, while total separations changed little at 5,400,000. Within separations, quits (3,200,000) and layoffs and discharges (1,800,000) were unchanged. 

This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, and by establishment size class. Job openings include all positions that are open on the last business day of the month. Hires and separations include all changes to the payroll during the entire month.

Job Openings

The number and rate of job openings were little changed at 7,400,000 and 4.4%, respectively, in June. The number of job openings increased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+97,000) and in federal government (+39,000). Job openings decreased in wholesale trade (-74,000), nondurable goods manufacturing (-55,000), and mining and logging (-9,000).

Hires

The number of hires was unchanged at 5,300,000, while the rate changed little at 3.4% in June. Hires decreased in federal government (-6,000).

Separations

Total separations include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations include separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.

In June, the number and rate of total separations changed little at 5,400,000 million and 3.4%, respectively. Total separations changed little in all industries.

In June, the number and rate of quits were unchanged at 3,200,000 and 2.0%, respectively. Quits decreased in federal government (-4,000).

The number and rate of layoffs and discharges were unchanged at 1,800,000 million and 1.1%, respectively, in June. Layoffs and discharges changed little in all industries.

The number of other separations was little changed at 353,000 in June.

Establishment Size Class

In June, establishments with 1 to 9 employees and establishments with 5,000 or more employees showed little or no change in job openings, hires, and separations rates.

May 2026 Revisions

The number of job openings for May was revised down by 57,000 to 7,500,000, the number of hires was revised up by 82,000 to 5,300,000, and the number of total separations was revised up by 159,000 to 5,300,000. Within separations, the number of quits was revised up by 88,000 to 3,200,000, and the number of layoffs and discharges was revised up by 53,000 to 1,800,000. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)

____________

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover news release for July 2026 is scheduled to be published on Tuesday, September 1, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. (ET).

As we recruiters know, that 7,400,000 number only represents 20% of the jobs currently available in the marketplace.  The other 80% of job openings are unpublished and are filled through networking or word of mouth or by using a RECRUITER.   So, those 7,400,000 published job openings now become a total of 37,000,000 published and hidden job orders.

Online Labor Demand Increased in June

July 8, 2026

The Conference Board−Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index increased in June 2026 to 117.3 (July 2018=100), up from an upwardly revised 116.0 in May. The 1.1% increase between June and May followed a 0.1% increase between May and April. Overall, the Index is up 6.6% from one year ago.

The HWOL Index measures the change in advertised online job vacancies over time, reflecting monthly trends in employment opportunities across the US. The Help Wanted OnLine® Index is produced in collaboration with Lightcast, the global leader in real-time labor market data and analysis. This collaboration enhances the Help Wanted OnLine® program by providing additional insights into important labor market trends.

PROGRAM NOTES

The June 2025 data release reflects an update to our job board coverage as a few job boards made changes to their access policy. To minimize any impact, and improve and supplement our job board coverage, we have broadened and updated our job board coverage.

Prior to 2020, The Conference Board constructed the HWOL Index based solely on online job ads over time. Using a methodology designed to reduce non-economic volatility contributed by online job sources, the HWOL Index served an effective measure of changes in labor demand over time.

Beginning January 2020, the HWOL Index was refined as an estimate of change in job openings (based on BLS JOLTS), using a series of econometric models which incorporate job ads with other macroeconomic indicators such as employment and aggregate hours worked. By adopting a modeled approach which combines other data sources with data on online job ads, the HWOL Index more accurately tracks important movements in the labor market.

HWOL Annual Revision. With the April 2025 press release, the HWOL program has incorporated its annual revision, which helps ensure the accuracy and consistency of the HWOL Data Series. This year’s annual revision includes updates to the Occupational coding and the Geographical coding for the HWOL Data Series from January 2015-forward. The HWOL Index has also been updated from January 2020-forward.

The Conference Board-Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index measures changes over time in advertised online job vacancies, reflecting monthly trends in employment opportunities across the US. The HWOL Data Series aggregates the total number of ads available by month from the HWOL universe of online job ads. Ads in the HWOL universe are collected in real-time from over 50,000 online job domains including traditional job boards, corporate boards, social media sites, and smaller job sites that serve niche markets and smaller geographic areas.

Like The Conference Board’s long-running Help Wanted Advertising Index of print ads (which was published for over 55 years and discontinued in July 2008), Help Wanted OnLine® measures help wanted advertising—i.e. labor demand. The HWOL Data Series began in May 2005 and was revised in December 2018. With the December 2018 revision, The Conference Board released the HWOL Index, improving upon the HWOL Data Series’ ability to assess local labor market trends by reducing volatility and non-economic noise and improving correlation with local labor market conditions.

In 2019, Lightcast (formerly Emsi Burning Glass) joined the Help Wanted OnLine® program as the new sole provider of online job ad data for HWOL. With this partnership, the HWOL Data Series has been revised historically to reflect a new universe and methodology of online job advertisements and therefore cannot be used in conjunction with the pre-revised HWOL Data Series. The HWOL Data Series begins in January 2015 and the HWOL Index begins in December 2005. HWOL Index values prior to 2020 are based on job ads collected by CEB, Inc.

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

About Lightcast

As the global leader in labor market analytics, Lightcast illuminates the future of work with data-driven talent strategies. Formerly Emsi Burning Glass, Lightcast finds purpose in sharing the insights that build communities, educators, and companies, and takes pride in knowing our work helps others find fulfillment, too. Headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts, and Moscow, Idaho, Lightcast is active in more than 30 countries and has offices in the United Kingdom, Italy, New Zealand, and India. Lightcast is backed by global private equity leader KKR.

Next release for July 2026 to be released Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 10am.

July U-6 Update

In July 2026, the regular unemployment rate fell to 4.1% and the broader U-6 measure remained at 7.9%.

The above 7.9% is referred to as the U-6 unemployment rate (found in the monthly BLS Employment Situation Summary, Table A-15; Table A-12 in 2008 and before).  It counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate) but also counts “marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons.”  Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week.  And the “marginally attached workers” include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking but still want to work.  The age considered for this calculation is 16 years and over.

Here is a look at the July U-6 numbers for the previous 23 years:

The JULY 2026 BLS Analysis

Both total nonfarm payroll employment (-23,000) and the unemployment rate (4.1%) changed little in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment declined in local government education and retail trade. Employment continued to trend up in health care

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 66,000, from +129,000 to +63,000, and the change for June was revised down by 37,000, from +57,000 to +20,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 103,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)

The unemployment rate is also published by the BLS.  That rate is found by dividing the number of unemployed by the total civilian labor force.  On August 7^th, 2026, the BLS published the most recent unemployment rate for July 2026 of 4.1% (actually, it is 4.090%, down by .099% from 4.189% in June).

The unemployment rate was determined by dividing the unemployed of 6,916,000

(–down from the month before by 178,000—since July 2025, this number has decreased by 356,000) by the total civilian labor force of 169,094,000 (down by 264,000 from June 2026).  Since July 2025, our total civilian labor force has decreased by 1,318,000 workers.

(The continuing ‘Strange BLS Math’ saga—after a detour in December 2016 when the BLS {for the first time in years} DECREASED the total Civilian Noninstitutional Population—this month the BLS increased this total to 275,282,000.  This is an increase of 116,000 from last month’s increase of 112,000.  In one year, this population has increased by 1,497,000.  For the last several years the Civilian Noninstitutional Population has increased each month—except in December 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020 & 2023—by…)

Subtract the ‘civilian labor force’ from the ‘civilian noninstitutional population’) and you get 106,189,000 ‘Not in Labor Force’—up by 381,000 from last month’s 105,808,000.  In one year, this NILF population has increased by 2,816,000.  The government tells us that most of these NILFs got discouraged and just gave up looking for a job.  My monthly recurring question is: “If that is the case, how do they survive when they don’t earn any money because they don’t have a job?  Are they ALL relying on the government to support them??”

This month, our Employment Participation Rate—the population 16 years and older working or seeking work—remained at 61.4%.  This rate is 1.0% below the historically low rate of 62.4% recorded in September 2015—and, before that, the rate recorded in October 1977—9 months into Jimmy Carter’s presidency—almost 49 years ago!

Final take on these numbers:  Fewer people looking for work will always bring down the unemployment rate.

Anyway, back to the point I am trying to make.  On the surface, these new unemployment

rates are scary, but let’s look a little deeper and consider some other numbers.

The unemployment rate includes all types of workers—construction workers, government workers, etc.  We recruiters, on the other hand, mainly place management, professional and related types of workers.  That unemployment rate in July was 2.9% (this rate was .1% higher than last month’s 2.8%).  Or you can look at it another way.  We usually place people who have college degrees.  That unemployment rate in July was 2.7% (this rate was exactly the same as last month’s 2.7%).

Now stay with me a little longer.  This gets better.  It’s important to understand (and none of the pundits mention this) that the unemployment rate, for many reasons, will never be 0%, no matter how good the economy is.  Without boring you any more than I have already, let me add here that Milton Friedman (the renowned Nobel Prize-winning economist), is famous for the theory of the “natural rate of unemployment” (or the term he preferred, NAIRU, which is the acronym for Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment).  Basically, this theory states that full employment presupposes an ‘unavoidable and acceptable’ unemployment rate of somewhere between 4-6% with it.  Economists often settle on 5%, although the “New Normal Unemployment Rate” has been suggested to fall at 6.7%.

Nevertheless (if you will allow me to apply a ‘macro’ concept to a ‘micro’ issue), if this rate is applied to our main category of Management, Professional and Related types of potential recruits, and/or our other main category of College-Degreed potential recruits,

we are well below the 4-6% threshold for full employment…we find no unemployment!  None!  Zilch!  A Big Goose Egg! 

THE IMPORTANCE OF GDP

“The economic goal of any nation, as of any individual, is to get the greatest results with the least effort.  The whole economic progress of mankind has consisted in getting more production with the same labor…Translated into national terms, this first principle means that our real objective is to maximize production.  In doing this, full employment—that is, the absence of involuntary idleness—becomes a necessary by-product.  But production is the end, employment merely the means.  We cannot continuously have the fullest production without full employment.  But we can very easily have full employment without full production.”

–Economics in One Lesson, by Henry Hazlitt, Chapter X, “The Fetish of Full Employment”

On July 30^th, 2026, the Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.5% in the first second quarter of 2026 (April, May, and June), according to the advance estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 2.1%.

The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the second quarter were increases in consumer spending, investment, and exports that were partly offset by a decrease in government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

Compared to the first quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter reflected a downturn in government spending and decelerations in investment and exports that were partly offset by an acceleration in consumer spending. Imports increased more in the second quarter than in the first quarter.

Annual Update of the National and Regional Economic Accounts

With improvements in the concurrent production of BEA statistics, the 2026 annual updates of national, industry, and regional data will begin on the same day for the first time: September 30, 2026. The annual update of the National Economic Accounts includes GDP, gross domestic income, GDP by industry, monthly personal income and outlays, and related statistics in the National Income and Product Accounts and the Industry Economic Accounts. The update of the Regional Economic Accounts includes GDP by state and by county, personal income by state and by county, and related statistics.

Next release: August 26, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. EDT
GDP (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits, 2nd Quarter 2026

IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR UNEMPLOYMENT EVER TO BE ZERO

‘Unemployment’ is an emotional ‘trigger’ word…a ‘third rail’, if you will.  It conjures up negative thoughts.  But it is important to realize that, while we want everyone who wants a job to have the opportunity to work, unemployment can never be zero and, in fact, can be disruptive to an economy if it gets too close to zero.  Very low unemployment can actually hurt the economy by creating an upward pressure on wages which invariably leads to higher production costs and prices.  This can lead to inflation.  The lowest the unemployment rate has been in the US was 2.5%.  That was in May and June 1953 when the economy overheated due to the Korean War.  When this bubble burst, it kicked off the Recession of 1953.  A healthy economy will always include some percentage of unemployment.

There are five main sources of unemployment:

1.  Cyclical (or demand-deficient) unemployment – This type of unemployment fluctuates with the business cycle.  It rises during a recession and falls during the subsequent recovery.  Workers who are most affected by this type of unemployment are laid off during a recession when production volumes fall, and companies use lay-offs as the easiest way to reduce costs.  These workers are usually rehired, some months later, when the economy improves.

2.  Frictional unemployment – This comes from the normal turnover in the labor force.  This is where new workers are entering the workforce and older workers are retiring and leaving vacancies to be filled by the new workers or those re-entering the workforce.  This category includes workers who are between jobs.

3.  Structural unemployment – This happens when the skills possessed by the unemployed worker don’t match the requirements of the opening—whether those be in characteristics and skills or in location.  This can come from new technology or foreign competition (e.g., foreign outsourcing).  This type of unemployment usually lasts longer than frictional unemployment because retraining, and sometimes relocation, is involved.  Occasionally jobs in this category can just disappear overseas.

4.  Seasonal unemployment – This happens when the workforce is affected by the climate or time of year.  Construction workers and agricultural workers aren’t needed as much during the winter season because of the inclement weather.  On the other hand, retail workers experience an increase in hiring shortly before, and during, the holiday season, but can be laid off shortly thereafter.

5.  Surplus unemployment – This is caused by minimum wage laws and unions.  When wages are set at a higher level, unemployment can often result.  Why?  To keep within the same payroll budget, the company must let go of some workers to pay the remaining workers a higher salary.

Other factors influencing the unemployment rate:

1.  Length of unemployment – Some studies indicate that an important factor influencing a worker’s decision to accept a new job is directly related to the length of the unemployment benefit they are receiving.  Currently, workers in most states are eligible for up to 26 weeks of benefits from the regular state-funded unemployment compensation program.

Extended Benefits are available to workers who have exhausted regular unemployment insurance benefits during periods of high unemployment. The basic Extended Benefits program provides up to 13 additional weeks of benefits when a State is experiencing high unemployment. Some States have also enacted a voluntary program to pay up to 7 additional weeks (20 weeks maximum) of Extended Benefits during periods of extremely high unemployment.

Studies suggest that additional weeks of benefits reduce the incentive of the unemployed to seek and accept less-desirable jobs.

2.  Changes in GDP – Since hiring workers takes time, the improvement in the unemployment rate usually lags the improvement in the GDP.

WHERE RECRUITERS PLACE

Now back to the issue at hand, namely the recruiting, and placing, of professionals and those with college degrees.

If you look at the past 26 years of unemployment in the July “management, professional and related” types of worker category, you will find the following rates:

Here are the rates, during those same time periods, for “college-degreed” workers:

The July 2026 rates for these two categories, 2.9% and 2.7%, respectively, are pretty low.  But regardless, these unemployment numbers usually include a good number of job-hoppers, job-shoppers and rejects.  We, on the other hand, are engaged by our client companies to find those candidates who are happy, well-appreciated, making good money and currently working and we entice them to move for even better opportunities—especially where new technologies are expanding.  This will never change.  And that is why, no matter the overall unemployment rate, we still need to MARKET to find the best possible job orders to work and we still need to RECRUIT to find the best possible candidates for those Job Orders.

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