BLS Analysis for March 2014

** Special Note for my distribution list readers:  I see many of you have emailed or called asking about my March BLS Analysis for Recruiters since you hadn’t received it yet.  Sorry for the delay.  I just returned to my office today from a training swing to the West Coast.  Thanks for your understanding.  Below is the report for March 2014.  Enjoy!

 

Marshall’s March 2014 BLS Analysis; 4/4/14

 

 March BLS Preface

 

TBMG News

 

Bob Marshall – Training/Coaching Updates

 

IPA National Convention 2014, Las Vegas, NV, April 3-4, 2014

I will be the keynote speaker at the Inter-City Personnel Associates (IPA) National Convention at Bally’s, Las Vegas, NV on April 3-4, 2014.

My two presentations will be: “How to Teach a Recruiter to Bill $1,010,349.50 in One Year” & “Marketing Call Mastery”.

 

Mark Whitby’s, RecruiterTrainingOnline Webinar, April 24, 2014

 I will be presenting at Mark Whitby’s RecruiterTrainingOnline Webinar on April 24, 2014, at 11am (Eastern Time).

My presentation will be:  “If It Don’t Make Dollars (or pounds), It Don’t Make Sense (or pence)! – The six main recruitment activities to implement on a daily basis.

 

US Recruiters Network (USRN) National Convention 2014, Minneapolis, MN, October 2-3, 2014

I will be the keynote speaker at the US Recruiters Network (USRN) National Convention in Minneapolis, MN on October 2-3, 2014.

My three presentations will be:  “Your Desk as a Manufacturing Plant” & “Establishing Elegant Rapport Through Elegant Communication” & “How to Teach a Recruiter to Bill $1,010,349.50 in One Year”.

 

 COACHING**

**Now, if you are serious about increasing your billings, give my prized ‘$1,000,000 billing in one year’ student, David Thaler (502-531-9890), a call.  He will let you know what I did for him and what I can do for you to help you reach your maximum potential.  If you are ready to invest in yourself and to receive the info you need, to bill at high levels, I can give you that information.  Then it will be up to you to execute.  The ball is in your court.

New for 2014, all of my coaching will be based on my new “TBMG 20 WEEK TRAINING FORMAT”.  The syllabus for the format is available upon request.

*The descriptions of my coaching plans, and all of my products, are available to you on my website: www.themarshallplan.org or you can reach me at 770-898-5550 or email me at: bob@themarshallplan.org.

 

Preface

 Many of you continue to correspond with me about these monthly BLS analyses and have asked if it is OK to use them in your presentations.  The answer is, of course, yes!  That is why I spend the time to assemble this information.  I would encourage any of you who have that desire to weave any of the information I have printed below into your presentations.  I write these analyses for the benefit of our recruitment industry in general and for the members of my distribution list in particular.  So use this info as you deem appropriate.

I also write these monthly BLS analyses to not only counterbalance the negative/incorrect press reporting of our general economic state but, more than that, to remind all of my recruitment readers that, at the level we work, there is no unemployment and so we must recruit to find the candidates our client companies so desperately need!

So, to my recruiter colleagues, get out there and do what your name implies…RECRUIT!  When your client companies have unique and difficult positions to fill, they need you.  When they are being picky, they need you.  When they are longing for more production from fewer employees, they need you.  Go fill those needs.  These should be the halcyon days in the recruitment arena!

Finally, always remember that we are not in an HR business, but in a ‘circumventing the time factor in the hiring sequence’ business—and adding value to our client companies.

 

 Census says US employment services revenue up 2.9%

Daily News, March 12, 2014

The Census Bureau reported the U.S. employment services industry had revenue of $66,520,000,000 in the fourth quarter of 2013.  That’s up 2.9% compared to the fourth quarter of 2012 based on seasonally adjusted estimates. Fourth-quarter revenue rose 3.3% sequentially from the third quarter.

Employment services include employment placement agencies, executive search firms, temporary employment agencies and professional employer organizations.

Census estimates of staffing industry revenue differ from other estimates.

 

 Only 38% of employers continuously recruit

Daily News, March 12, 2014

Only 38% of employers continuously recruit throughout the year for positions that may open up down the line despite concerns over skills gaps and challenges posed by extended vacancies, according to a survey by CareerBuilder.

Among human resource managers who don’t continuously recruit, 46% cited time as the primary inhibitor. Cost was only a prohibitive factor to 29% of this group.

65% of a subset of human resources managers who continuously recruit say the tactic shortened their time to hire, and 54% said it lowered their cost per hire.

“Pipeline management and proactive recruiting will only save time in the back end,” said Kelly Kudola, Americas recruiting manager for Kelly Services. “There are so many more resources used in the reactive interviewing and screening process that our recruiters don’t have the time not to continuously recruit.”

The survey was conducted online by Harris Poll on behalf of CareerBuilder among 2,201 hiring managers and human resource professionals. The survey was conducted between Nov. 6 and Dec. 2, 2013.

 

 Robert Half:  CFOs unconcerned about baby boomer retirements

Daily News, March 21, 2014

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports one-fifth of the U.S. workforce has passed or is nearing retirement age, but many executives aren’t too concerned with losing baby boomer employees to retirement in the next couple of years, according a recent survey by Robert Half International Inc.  While 31% of chief financial officers said they were worried about this possibility, 63% reported being unconcerned.

CFOs were asked, “How concerned are you about losing employees from the baby boomer generation to retirement in the next 2 years?”  Their responses:

  • Not at all concerned: 42%
  • Somewhat unconcerned: 21%
  • Somewhat concerned: 25%
  • Very concerned: 6%
  • Don’t know/no answer: 6%

Of the CFOs concerned about baby boomer retirements, 39% cited leadership as the greatest potential loss to their business due to the retirements and 23% cited legacy knowledge.

“Although losing baby boomers to retirement may not be a universal concern yet, employers, as a best practice, should prepare themselves for the exit of experienced professionals from the workforce,” said Paul McDonald, Robert Half senior executive director.  “Mentorship and succession plans can be effective means of passing on legacy knowledge, and retaining and developing a company’s next generation of leaders.”

The survey is based on interviews with more than 2,100 CFOs from companies in more than 20 of the largest U.S. markets.

 

New Normal: Many Gen Xers See Future in Rubble

Martha C. White, NBC News, March 23, 2014

The nation’s economic recovery has limped along for so long that some Gen Xers are coming to a dour conclusion: Rather than just a temporary setback, these years of economic malaise may end up costing them — and their children — the future they once took for granted.

That’s not just a problem for workers who are languishing through what should be their prime earning years. It also could threaten to further drag down a recovery that already faces plenty of other headwinds, if these consumers are falling behind financially at a time when they should be fueling economic growth.

“That’s really a serious problem because those people in the middle are in the years when your balance sheet should be improving the most,” said Randall Olsen, a professor of economics at Ohio State University. “A lot of the unemployment … has struck prime age workers. There’s a serious possibility they may never work again,” he said.

As of mid-2013, the average American household’s net worth was around 14% lower than the pre-recession peak 7 years earlier, Olsen found. Americans between the ages of 35 and 54 were still 27% below their peak net worth, considerably higher than both older and younger age groups.

The drain that extended unemployment has on household wealth affects the current economy — last quarter’s GDP data was revised down to an annualized growth rate of just 2.4% — but it’s more troubling for what it foreshadows about this generation’s ability to secure its own financial future as well as that of its children.

A 2013 report by the Pew Charitable Trusts found that between 2007 and 2010, Gen X households lost 45% of their wealth, seriously hurting their goal of a comfortable retirement. “At the median, Gen-Xers will have enough resources to replace only about half of their preretirement income,” Pew predicted.

A January study published by the Insured Retirement Institute found that only 65% of Gen Xers have anything saved for retirement, down 7% in just 2 years. It found that more than 40% have less than $50,000 saved. The same number — 42% — said they’re not confident that they’ll have enough money for a comfortable retirement, a figure that’s more than doubled since researchers last asked the question 2 years ago.

For many in this age bracket, the slide in household income started well before the recession. For the middle quintile, income peaked in 2000; for the bottom 20%, it was 1999. Real income has fallen for each group by around 9% and 16%, respectively, since then, the Insured Retirement Institute found.

“This has not been a good time, and a lot of that hay that should have been made years ago has not been made … especially for retirement,” said Anthony Carnevale, director of the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce.

 

 The new ADP/Moody’s National Employment Report;

65% of all new job growth in March 2014, comes from Small and Mid-size Companies

April 2, 2014

Private sector employment increased by 191,000 jobs from February to March, according to the March ADP National Employment Report®, which is produced by ADP®, a leading global provider of Human Capital Management (HCM) solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics.  The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

By Company Size

Small businesses: 72,000

1-19 employees 38,000

20-49 employees 34,000

Medium businesses: 52,000

50-499 employees 52,000

Large businesses: 67,000

500-999 employees 14,000

1,000+ employees 53,000

 

By Sector

Goods producing 28,000

Service providing 164,000

 

Industry Snapshot

Construction 20,000

Manufacturing 5,000

Trade/transportation/utilities 36,000

Financial activities 5,000

Professional/business services 53,000

 

Goods-producing employment rose by 28,000 jobs in March, slightly faster than an upwardly revised pace of 25,000 in February.  Most of the gains came from the construction industry which added 20,000 jobs over the month; compared to an average of 16,000 during the prior three months.  Manufacturers added 5,000 jobs in March, the same as February.

Service-providing employment rose by 164,000 jobs in March, up from the upwardly revised 153,000 in February.  The report indicates that professional/business services contributed the most to growth in service-providing industries, adding 53,000 jobs, slightly more than the 49,000 in February.  Expansion in trade/transportation/utilities grew by 36,000, about equal to the 37,000 jobs added in February.  The 5,000 new jobs in financial activities mark the strongest pace of growth in the industry since November 2013.

“The 191,000 U.S. private sector jobs added in March is slightly above the twelve-month average,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP.  “Hopefully, this could be a sign there is more growth to come.”

 

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market is coming out from its deep winter slumber.  Job gains are consistent with the pace prior to the brutal winter.  The gains are broad based across industries and business size classes.  Even better numbers are likely in coming months as the weather warms.”

(The April 2014 ADP National Employment Reportwill be released at 8:15 a.m. ET on April 30, 2014).

 

Due to the important contribution that small businesses make to economic growth, employment data that are specific to businesses with 49 or fewer employees is reported each month in the ADP Small Business Report®, a subset of the ADP National Employment Report.

 

March 2014 Small Business Report Highlights

Total Small Business Employment:             72,000

 

●By Size  
►1-19 employees 38,000
►20-49 employees 34,000
●By Sector for 1-49 Employees  
►Goods Producing 9,000
►Service Producing 63,000
●By Sector for 1-19 Employees  
►Goods Producing 9,000
►Service Producing 29,000
●By Sector for 20-49 Employees  
►Goods Producing 0
►Service Producing 34,000

 

Bottom-line:  To my audience of recruiters, always remember this:  Our ‘bread and butter’, especially on the contingency side of the house, has historically been, and continues to be, small and medium-sized client companies.  Along with the large companies, these companies need to be in included in your niche!

 

Job Openings and Structural Unemployment

On March 11th, the BLS reported that there were 4,000,000 job openings on the last business day of January, little changed from DecemberThe 4,000,000 reflects published openings comprised of jobs that are advertised either online or in print format.

The hires rate (3.3%) and separations rate (3.2%) were little changed in January. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by geographic region.  (The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey results for February 2014 are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, April 8th, 2014).

As we recruiters know, that 4,000,000 number only represents 20% of the jobs currently available in the marketplace.  The other 80% of job openings are unpublished and are filled through networking or word of mouth or by using a RECRUITER.   So, those 4,000,000 published job openings now become a total of 20,000,000 published and hidden job orders.

In March there were 10,486,000 unemployed workers.  What was the main reason why those workers were unemployed?  Two Words:  Structural Unemployment.  If we can’t figure out how to educate and/or reeducate those 10,486,000 unemployed, then they will keep reappearing each month as a BLS unemployment statistic—as they have.  In the meantime, our recruitment marketplace flourishes!

 

Online Labor Demand Falls by 292,100 in March

April, 2, 2014

  • March loss offsets February gain and leaves Q1’14 basically unchanged 
  • March losses occurred in 18 of the 22 Standard Occupation Codes

Online advertised vacancies were down 292,100 to 4,894,100 in March, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series. The February Supply/Demand rate stands at 2.0 unemployed for each vacancy with a total of 5.3 million more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies.

“The March decline largely offsets the February gain and left the first quarter of 2014 with a minor drop of 50,000. It’s not the start of the year we were hoping for,” said June Shelp, Vice President at The Conference Board. “The flat trend that we saw throughout last year seems to have continued into the first quarter of this year.”

The Supply/Demand rates show that for professional jobs like physicians and computer workers there are 3 to 5 ads for every unemployed worker, making it hard for employers to find candidates to fill their advertised jobs. The situation is quite different for occupations like construction and production workers where there are anywhere from 4 to 7 job seekers competing for every opening.

 

(The April 2013 Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Serieswill be released at 10:00 am ET on April 30th, 2014).

 

 

U-6 Update

 

In March, 2014 the regular unemployment number was 6.7%, but that broader U-6 measure was 12.7%, almost twice as high as the regular unemployment figure.

 

The above 12.7% is referred to as the U6 unemployment rate (found in the monthly BLS Employment Situation Summary, Table A-15; Table A-12 in 2008 and before).  It counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts “marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons.”  Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week.  And the “marginally attached workers” include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work.  The age considered for this calculation is 16 year and over.

 

Here is a look at the March U-6 numbers for the past 11 years:

 

March 2013                 13.8%

March 2012                 14.5%

March 2011                 15.7%

March 2010                 16.8%

March 2009                 15.6%

March 2008                 9.1%

March 2007                 8.0%

March 2006                 8.2%

March 2005                 9.1%

March 2004                 9.9%

March 2003                 10.0%

 

The March BLS Analysis

The unemployment rate is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a division of the US Department of Labor.  The rate is found by dividing the number of unemployed by the total civilian labor force.  On April 4th, 2014, the BLS published the most recent unemployment rate for March, 2014 of 6.7% (actually it is 6.712%, down slightly by .004% from 6.716% in February, 2014).

 

The unemployment rate was determined by dividing the unemployed of 10,486,000 (—up from the month before by 27,000—since March, 2013 this number has decreased by 1,220,000) by the total civilian labor force of 156,227,000 (up by 503,000 from February, 2014).  Since March 2013, our total civilian labor force has increased by 1,128,000 workers.

 

(The continuing ‘Strange BLS Math’ saga):  The BLS continues to increase the total Civilian Noninstitutional Population—this time up to 247,258,000.  In one year’s time this population has increased by 2,263,000.  This is an increase of 173,000 from last month’s increase.  The Civilian Noninstitutional Population has increased each month…

 

Up from February 2014 by 173,000
Up from January 2014 by 170,000
Up from December 2013 by 170,000
Up from November 2013 by 178,000
Up from October 2013 by 186,000
Up from September 2013 by 213,000
Up from August 2013 by 209,000
Up from July 2013 by 203,000
Up from June 2013 by 204,000
Up from May 2013 by 189,000
Up from April 2013 by 188,000
Up from March 2013 by 180,000
Up from February 2013 by 167,000
Up from January 2013 by 165,000
Up from December 2012 by 313,000
Up from November 2012 by 176,000
Up from October 2012 by 191,000
Up from September 2012 by 211,000
Up from August 2012 by 206,000
Up from July 2012 by 212,000
Up from June 2012 by 199,000
Up from May 2012 by 189,000
Up from April 2012 by 182,000
Up from March 2012 by 180,000
Up from February 2012 by 169,000
Up from January 2012 by 335,000
Up from December 2011 by 2,020,000

 

And this month the BLS has increased the Civilian Labor Force to 156,227,000 (up from February by 503,000).

 

Subtract the second number (‘civilian labor force’) from the first number (‘civilian noninstitutional population’) and you get 91,031,000 ‘Not in Labor Force’—slightly lower than last month’s 91,361,000 (not the 91,030,000 in the report).  Since March, 2013, 1,135,000 US workers have vanished!  Where did those 1,135,000 potential workers disappear to in one year’s time?  I am assuming they still have to eat and pay their rent.  They still need money, don’t they?  The government tells us that these NILFs got discouraged and just gave up looking for a job.  My monthly recurring question is:  “If that is the case, how do they live when they don’t earn any money because they don’t have a job?  Are they all relying on the government to support them??”

 

Our Employment Participation Rate—the population 16 years and older working or seeking work—rose to 63.2%This is the eighth lowest Employment Participation Rate recorded since July 1978…just over one and a half years into President Carter’s term of office, 36 years ago!  One year ago, our Participation Rate in December was 63.3%.

 

Final take on these numbers:  Fewer people looking for work will always bring down the unemployment rate.

 

Anyway, back to the point I am trying to make.  On the surface, these new unemployment rates are scary, but let’s look a little deeper and consider some other numbers.

 

The unemployment rate includes all types of workers—construction workers, government workers, etc.  We recruiters, on the other hand, mainly place management, professional and related types of workers.  That unemployment rate in March was 3.3% (this rate rose .1% from last month’s 3.2%).  Or, you can look at it another way.  We usually place people who have college degrees.  That unemployment rate in March was 3.4% (this rate was the same as last month’s 3.4%).

 

Now stay with me a little longer.  This gets better.  It’s important to understand (and none of the pundits mention this) that the unemployment rate, for many reasons, will never be 0%, no matter how good the economy is.  Without boring you any more than I have already, let me add here that Milton Friedman (the renowned Nobel Prize-winning economist), is famous for the theory of the “natural rate of unemployment” (or the term he preferred, NAIRU, which is the acronym for Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment).  Basically, this theory states that full employment presupposes an ‘unavoidable and acceptable’ unemployment rate of somewhere between 4-6% with it.  Economists often settle on 5%, although the “New Normal Unemployment Rate” has been suggested to fall at 6.7%.

 

Nevertheless (if you will allow me to apply a ‘macro’ concept to a ‘micro’ issue), if this rate is applied to our main category of Management, Professional and Related types of potential recruits, and/or our other main category of College-Degreed potential recruits, we are below the 4-6% threshold for full employment…we find no unemployment!  None!  Zilch!

 

 

THE IMPORTANCE OF GDP

 

“The economic goal of any nation, as of any individual, is to get the greatest results with the least effort.  The whole economic progress of mankind has consisted in getting more production with the same labor…Translated into national terms, this first principle means that our real objective is to maximize production.  In doing this, full employment—that is, the absence of involuntary idleness—becomes a necessary by-product.  But production is the end, employment merely the means.  We cannot continuously have the fullest production without full employment.  But we can very easily have full employment without full production.”

–Economics in One Lesson, by Henry Hazlitt, Chapter X, “The Fetish of Full Employment”

 

On March 27th, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced the 4th quarter, “third” estimate, of our real gross domestic product (GDP) — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States.  GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2013 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.1%.

 

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month.  In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.4%.  With this third estimate for the fourth quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains largely the same; personal consumption expenditures (PCE) was larger than previously estimated, while private investment in inventories and in intellectual property products were smaller than previously estimated.

 

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from federal government spending and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

 

The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter reflected a downturn in private inventory investment, a larger decrease in federal government spending, a downturn in residential fixed investment, and a deceleration in state and local government spending that were partly offset by accelerations in PCE and in exports, a deceleration in imports, and an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment.

 

2013 GDP

 

Real GDP increased 1.9% in 2013 (that is, from the 2012 annual level to the 2013 annual level), compared with an increase of 2.8% in 2012.

 

The increase in real GDP in 2013 primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and private inventory investment that were partly offset by a negative contribution from federal government spending.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

 

The deceleration in real GDP in 2013 primarily reflected a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, a larger decrease in federal government spending, and decelerations in PCE and in exports that were partly offset by a deceleration in imports and a smaller decrease in state and local government spending.

 

The next GDP release, for the First Quarter 2014 (Advance Estimate), will be on April 30, 2014.

 

The economy needs to expand at about 3% just to keep the unemployment rate from rising.  Two consecutive quarters of a falling GDP indicate Recession.

 

 IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR UNEMPLOYMENT EVER TO BE ZERO

‘Unemployment’ is an emotional ‘trigger’ word…a ‘third rail’, if you will.  It conjures up negative thoughts.  But it is important to realize that, while we want everyone who wants a job to have the opportunity to work, unemployment can never be zero and, in fact, can be disruptive to an economy if it gets too close to zero.  Very low unemployment can actually hurt the economy by creating an upward pressure on wages which invariably leads to higher production costs and prices.  This can lead to inflation.  The lowest the unemployment rate has been in the US was 2.5%.  That was in May and June 1953 when the economy overheated due to the Korean War.  When this bubble burst, it kicked off the Recession of 1953.  A healthy economy will always include some percentage of unemployment.

 

There are five main sources of unemployment:

 

  1. Cyclical (or demand-deficient) unemployment – This type of unemployment fluctuates with the business cycle.  It rises during a recession and falls during the subsequent recovery.  Workers who are most affected by this type of unemployment are laid off during a recession when production volumes fall and companies use lay-offs as the easiest way to reduce costs.  These workers are usually rehired, some months later, when the economy improves.

 

  1. Frictional unemployment – This comes from the normal turnover in the labor force.  This is where new workers are entering the workforce and older workers are retiring and leaving vacancies to be filled by the new workers or those re-entering the workforce.  This category includes workers who are between jobs.

 

  1. Structural unemployment – This happens when the skills possessed by the unemployed worker don’t match the requirements of the opening—whether those be in characteristics and skills or in location.  This can come from new technology or foreign competition (e.g., foreign outsourcing).  This type of unemployment usually lasts longer than frictional unemployment because retraining, and sometimes relocation, is involved.  Occasionally jobs in this category can just disappear overseas.

 

  1. Seasonal unemployment – This happens when the workforce is affected by the climate or time of year.  Construction workers and agricultural workers aren’t needed as much during the winter season because of the inclement weather.  On the other hand, retail workers experience an increase in hiring shortly before, and during, the holiday season, but can be laid off shortly thereafter.

 

  1. Surplus unemployment – This is caused by minimum wage laws and unions.  When wages are set at a higher level, unemployment can often result.  Why?  To keep within the same payroll budget, the company must let go of some workers to pay the remaining workers a higher salary.

 

Other factors influencing the unemployment rate:

 

  1. Length of unemployment – Some studies indicate that an important factor influencing a workers decision to accept a new job is directly related to the length of the unemployment benefit they are receiving.  Just recently the government re-extended the eligibility for unemployment benefits from 26 weeks to as much as 73 weeks.  Studies suggest that this reduces the incentive of the unemployed to seek and accept less desirable jobs.

 

  1. Changes in GDP – Since hiring workers takes time, the improvement in the unemployment rate usually lags behind the improvement in the GDP.

 

 WHERE RECRUITERS PLACE

Now back to the issue at hand, namely the recruiting, and placing, of professionals and those with college degrees.

If you take a look at the past few years of unemployment in the March “management, professional and related” types of worker category, you will find the following rates:

 

March 2013                 3.6%

March 2012                 4.2%

March 2011                 4.3%

March 2010                 4.7%

March 2009                 4.2%

March 2008                 2.1%

March 2007                 1.8%

March 2006                 2.1%

March 2005                 2.3%

March 2004                 2.7%

March 2003                 2.9%

March 2002                 2.8%

 

Here are the rates, during those same time periods, for “college-degreed” workers:

 

March 2013                 3.8%

March 2012                 4.2%

March 2011                 4.4%

March 2010                 4.8%

March 2009                 4.4%

March 2008                 2.1%

March 2007                 1.8%

March 2006                 2.2%

March 2005                 2.4%

March 2004                 2.9%

March 2003                 3.1%

March 2002                 2.8%

 

So, while March’s 2014 rates for these two categories, 3.3% and 3.4%, respectively, are trending positively, when looking at the big picture, it’s not anything to be very happy about either—especially when we see how well we had it during the 2002-2008 time frame.  But regardless, these unemployment numbers usually include a good number of job hoppers, job shoppers and rejects.  We, on the other hand, are engaged by our client companies to find those candidates who are happy, well-appreciated, making good money and currently working and we entice them to move for even better opportunities—especially where new technologies are expanding.  This will never change.  And that is why, no matter the unemployment rate, we still need to market to find the best job orders and we still need to recruit to find the best candidates.

 

Below are the numbers for the over 25 year olds:

 

Less that H.S. diploma – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
7.7% 7.4% 8.2% 7.9% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 9.7% 9.8% 10.4% 10.6% 10.9%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
12.0% 12.6% 13.3% 14.8% 15.5% 15.5% 15.4% 15.6% 15.0% 15.5% 15.0% 15.3%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
15.2% 15.6% 14.5% 14.7% 15.0% 14.1% 13.8% 14.0% 15.4% 15.3% 15.7% 15.3%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
14.2% 13.9% 13.7% 14.6% 14.7% 14.3% 15.0% 14.3% 14.0% 13.8% 13.2% 13.8%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
13.1% 12.9% 12.6% 12.5% 13.0% 12.6% 12.7% 12.0% 11.3% 12.2% 12.2% 11.7%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
12.0% 11.2% 11.1% 11.6% 11.1% 10.7% 11.0% 11.3% 10.3% 10.9% 10.8% 9.8%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
9.6% 9.8% 9.6%

 

 H.S. Grad; no college – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
4.6% 4.7% 5.1% 5.0% 5.2% 5.2% 5.3% 5.8% 6.3% 6.5% 6.9% 7.7%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
8.1% 8.3% 9.0% 9.3% 10.0% 9.8% 9.4% 9.7% 10.8% 11.2% 10.4% 10.5%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.5% 10.8% 10.6% 10.9% 10.8% 10.1% 10.3% 10.0% 10.1% 10.0% 9.8%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.4% 9.5% 9.5% 9.7% 9.5% 10.0% 9.3% 9.6% 9.7% 9.6% 8.8% 8.7%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.4% 8.3% 8.0% 7.9% 8.1% 8.4% 8.7% 8.8% 8.7% 8.4% 8.1% 8.0%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.1% 7.9% 7.6% 7.4% 7.4% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.3% 7.3% 7.1%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.5% 6.4% 6.3%

 

 Some College; or AA/AS – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
3.7% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.6% 5.0% 5.1% 5.3% 5.5% 5.6%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
6.2% 7.0% 7.2% 7.4% 7.7% 8.0% 7.9% 8.2% 8.5% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
8.5% 8.0% 8.2% 8.3% 8.3% 8.2% 8.3% 8.7% 9.1% 8.5% 8.7% 8.1%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
8.0% 7.8% 7.4% 7.5% 8.0% 8.4% 8.3% 8.2% 8.4% 8.3% 7.6% 7.7%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
7.2% 7.3% 7.5% 7.6% 7.9% 7.5% 7.1% 6.6% 6.5% 6.9% 6.6% 6.9%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
7.0% 6.7% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5% 6.4% 6.0% 6.1% 6.0% 6.3% 6.4% 6.1%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.0% 6.2% 6.1%

 

BS/BS + – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 2.6% 3.1% 3.2% 3.7%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
3.8% 4.1% 4.3% 4.4% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.9% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.9% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.4% 4.7% 5.1% 4.8%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.2% 4.3% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.1%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% 3.4% 3.3%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.2% 3.4% 3.4%

 

Management, Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 3.3% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 4.0% 4.6% 5.0% 5.5% 5.4% 5.2% 4.7% 4.6% 4.6%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 4.5% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 4.4% 4.5% 4.7% 4.6%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.7% 4.4% 4.3% 4.0% 4.4% 4.7% 5.0% 4.9% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 4.2%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 3.7% 4.0% 4.4% 4.8% 4.5% 3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.9%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 4.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.5% 3.4% 3.1% 2.9%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.1% 3.2% 3.3%

 

Or employed…(,000)

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
52,165 52,498 52,681 52,819 52,544 52,735 52,655 52,626 53,104 53,485 53,274 52,548

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
52,358 52,196 52,345 52,597 52,256 51,776 51,810 51,724 52,186 52,981 52,263 52,131

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
52,159 52,324 52,163 52,355 51,839 51,414 50,974 50,879 51,757 51,818 52,263 51,704

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
51,866 52,557 53,243 53,216 52,778 52,120 51,662 51,997 52,665 52,864 52,787 52,808

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
53,152 53,208 53,771 54,055 54,156 53,846 53,165 53,696 54,655 55,223 54,951 54,635

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
54,214 54,563 54,721 54,767 54,740 54,323 54,064 54,515 55,013 55,155 55,583 54,880

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
55,096 55,501 56,036

 

And unemployed…(,000)

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
1,164 1,159 1,121 1,088 1,407 1,478 1,585 1,779 1,539 1,647 1,786 1,802

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
2,238 2,137 2,292 2,164 2,373 2,720 3,034 2,925 2,859 2,593 2,530 2,509

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
2,762 2,637 2,600 2,464 2,450 2,644 2,687 2,762 2,381 2,417 2,525 2,468

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
2,557 2,435 2,381 2,196 2,419 2,598 2,742 2,671 2,450 2,410 2,336 2,303

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
2,410 2,336 2,330 2,062 2,275 2,472 2,666 2,556 2,245 2,170 2,077 2,221

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
2,211 2,164 2,020 1,980 1,990 2,358 2,286 2,130 1,978 1,930 1,749 1,637

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
1,784 1,845 1,890

 

For a total Management, Professional & Related workforce of…(,000)

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
53,329 53,657 53,802 53,907 53,951 54,213 54,240 54,405 54,643 55,132 55,060 54,350

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
54,596 54,333 54,637 54,761 54,629 54,496 54,844 54,649 55,045 55,574 54,793 54,640

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
54,921 54,961 54,763 54,819 54,289 54,058 53,661 53,641 54,138 54,235 54,788 54,172

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
54,423 54,992 55,624 55,412 55,197 54,718 54,404 54,668 55,115 55,274 55,123 55,111

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
55,562 55,544 56,101 56,117 56,431 56,318 55,831 56,252 56,900 57,393 57,028 56,856

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
56,425 56,727 56,741 56,747 56,730 56,681 56,350 56,645 56,991 57,085 57,332 56,517

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
56,880 57,346 57,926

 

Management, Business and Financial Operations – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 3.0% 3.6% 3.9%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.4% 5.2%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.2% 5.1% 5.4% 5.1% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.9% 4.3% 5.0% 5.5% 5.7%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
5.3% 4.9% 4.8% 4.6% 4.9% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 4.4%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.5% 4.4% 4.4% 4.0% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 4.1%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
4.0% 3.9% 3.5% 3.5% 3.8% 3.5% 3.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.7% 3.2% 3.1%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.4% 3.6% 3.5%

 

Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.9% 3.2% 3.6% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.9% 4.6% 4.3% 4.1% 4.3% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3% 4.4% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.3% 4.1% 3.9% 3.5% 4.0% 4.9% 5.3% 5.1% 4.4% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.8% 5.5% 5.2% 4.3% 3.9% 3.5% 3.8%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 4.6% 4.7% 4.0% 3.6% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
2.9% 3.0% 3.1%

 

 Sales & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
5.2% 5.2% 4.8% 4.3% 5.1% 5.6% 6.2% 6.3% 5.7% 6.1% 6.5% 7.0%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
7.7% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 8.9% 9.1% 8.3% 8.7% 8.9% 9.5% 9.1% 8.9%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.2% 9.7% 9.2% 9.6% 9.4% 10.1% 9.0% 9.4% 9.1% 8.8% 8.3%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.3% 9.0% 8.5% 8.5% 9.4% 9.7% 9.4% 8.6% 9.4% 8.2% 7.8% 7.7%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.2% 7.9% 8.1% 7.6% 7.9% 8.4% 8.3% 8.6% 7.9% 7.0% 7.3% 7.0%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.5% 8.2% 7.7% 6.9% 7.1% 6.7% 6.9% 7.2% 7.5% 7.3% 7.0% 6.3%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
7.1% 7.7% 6.8%