BLS Analysis for October 2017

Bob Marshall’s October 2017 BLS Analysis for Recruiters; 11/3/17

 

October BLS Preface

 

TBMG Coaching Updates and News

 

Bob Marshall – Coaching & Speaking Updates:

 

“Goal Setting for 2018—A Six Part Series”; October-November 2017

 

We are in the middle of this series*.  Part Three was sent out on Tuesday and that article is now on my website under the tab “Featured Articles”.

 

FYI, here are the six topics and the release dates:

 

Tuesday, October 17 – Part One – The Goal Setting Overview

 

Tuesday, October 24 – Part Two – The Yearly Planning Worksheet

 

Tuesday, October 31 – Part Three – The Quarterly Goal Sheets

 

Tuesday, November 7 – Part Four – The 100 Point Sheet

 

Tuesday, November 14 – Part Five – Advice from the UK

 

Tuesday, November 21 – Part Six – Be a Role Model

 

*If you missed any of the parts to this series, contact me directly.

 

The next Illuminati presentation is tentatively scheduled for mid-November with the famous UK recruitment coach and trainer—Terry Edwards

 

More details to follow once the date is set.

 

Affordable Individualized Meeting will continue to be offered in November & December, 2017

 

I am continuing to offer virtual hour long meetings covering any recruitment topic.  These are structured specifically for your office and can include interaction and Q&A.  The meetings are personalized for your group or individual.  I use FreeConference.com and the meetings can be recorded.  For more details, contact me directly.

 

 

“Look for excellence, not perfection.  Everyone has flaws; the key is how they deal with them.”

 

WHY A COACH?

 

“Teachers open the door; but you must enter by yourself”—Chinese Proverb

 

In the opinion of ex-Dallas Cowboys football coach Tom Landry who coached from 1960-1988,

 

“A coach is someone who tells you what you don’t want to hear,

who has you see what you don’t want to see,

so you can be who you have always known you could be.”

 

Is now the time to pick a Coach?

 

I realize that taking that first step to engage a Coach to help you reach a higher level of production is not as easy as it sounds.  After all, your training investment – and your time – are important and deserve every consideration.  I share your feelings.  I believe that how you approach your recruitment career matters…that you should get what you pay for, and then some…that you should enjoy your time with your Coach as you are benefiting from it…and that you should never settle for the ordinary.

 

So for those of you who have been toying with the idea of working with a recruitment coach, now may be the time.  Only you can come to that decision point.

 

When considering ‘individual change management’, consider this theosophical proverb, “When the student is ready, the teacher will appear!”

 

“Bob Marshall is a speaker’s speaker and a trainer’s trainer.  He has a gift for taking the cornerstones of the business and compelling people and teams to not only hone their skills but to execute. We’ve had Bob engage our teams a number of times over the last few years and our groups always come away more focused on the core and more energized to perform. Come ready to learn because this man knows the business and will make you better!”

 

—David Alexander, President, Adecco & Soliant, January, 2017

 

If you are ready to take the first step, you can read descriptions of my coaching plans, and all of my products, on my website @ www.themarshallplan.org.  Then, call me directly at 770-898-5550 or email me @ bob@themarshallplan.org.

 

Preface

 

Many of you continue to correspond with me about these monthly BLS analyses and have asked if it is OK to use them in your presentations.  The answer is, of course, yes!  That is why I spend the time to assemble this information.  I would encourage any of you who have that desire to weave any of the information I have printed below into your presentations.  I write these analyses for the benefit of our recruitment industry in general and for the members of my distribution list in particular.  So use this info as you deem appropriate.

 

I also write these monthly BLS analyses to not only counterbalance the negative/incorrect press reporting of our general economic state but, more than that, to remind all of my recruitment readers that, at the level we work, there is no unemployment and so we must recruit to find the candidates our client companies so desperately need!

 

So, to my recruiter colleagues, get out there and do what your name implies…RECRUIT!  When your client companies have unique and difficult positions to fill, they need you.  When they are being picky, they need you.  When they are longing for more production from fewer employees, they need you.  Go fill those needs.  These should be the halcyon days in the recruitment arena!

 

Finally, always remember that we are not in an HR business, but in a ‘circumventing the time factor in the hiring sequence’ business—and adding value to our client companies.

 

 

US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Posts 3% Growth in Q3

Daily News, October 27, 2017

 

US real gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 3.0% in the third quarter, according to the “advance” estimate of GDP growth released today by the US Commerce Department.  In the first quarter, real GDP advanced 3.1%.

 

This is the first time the economy has grown at or above a 3% annual rate for two consecutive quarters since the middle of 2014, Brian Schaitkin, senior economist at The Conference Board, wrote in a statement.  Investment and trade data suggest that the US economy is “well equipped” to ride momentum from 2017 to growth of nearly 2.5% for 2018.

 

“Consumer spending continued to grow at a solid pace despite some economic disruptions caused by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma,” Schaitkin wrote.  “Strong September auto sales numbers indicate that these disruptions may be temporary and could lead to strong spending during the fourth quarter.  Residential investment continued to retreat, but the process of post-storm rebuilding in Texas and Florida could help drive a recovery in next quarter and into 2018.”

 

 

IT and Engineering Job Growth Decelerates in September in Wake of Hurricanes

Daily News, October 16, 2017

 

US IT and engineering job growth decelerated in September after a modest uptick in August, according to the TechServe Alliance, a national trade association of the IT and engineering staffing and solutions industry.

 

“Despite the deceleration in the rate of growth, both IT and engineering outperformed the overall labor market which actually contracted for the first time in 7 years in light of the hurricanes that hit Texas and Florida,” said TechServe Alliance CEO Mark Roberts.

 

“Given the weather events had an adverse impact on 2 states that are economic powerhouses, I think the deceleration in the rate of growth is no cause for alarm,” Roberts said.  “We fully expect employment to rebound in these areas in the coming months.”

 

The number of IT jobs in the US edged up 0.1% in September from August to more than 5,300,000, according to the TechServe Alliance.  Year over year, IT employment in the US rose by 2.3% in September, adding 121,100 IT jobs.

 

Engineering employment growth also edged up 0.1% in September from August to almost 2,600,000 jobs.  Year over year, the increase was 1.9%, representing 32,900 engineering jobs.

 

 

Governor Brown Signs Legislation Banning Salary History Inquiries

Fisher Phillips Blog, October 12, 2017

California joins other states and municipalities in banning inquiries into salary history of applicants.  AB 168 prohibits employers from seeking salary history information or relying on the salary history information regarding applicants for employment.  AB 168 goes into effect on January 1, 2018.

 

California has joined the ranks of a growing number of jurisdictions to prevent employers from asking about salary history information.  On October 12, Governor Jerry Brown signed Assembly Bill 168 (Eggman), a bill that prohibits public and private employers from seeking or relying upon the salary history of applicants for employment.

 

A number of states (Delaware, Massachusetts, and Oregon) have passed similar laws which will become effective later this year or in coming years.  Cities are getting in on the action as well.  Philadelphia passed an ordinance which was to go into effect in May, but is currently under legal challenge. New York City recently adopted an ordinance that will become law on October 31.  San Francisco Mayor Ed Lee signed an ordinance in July that will go into effect on July 1, 2018.

 

What’s The Rationale?

 

Gender pay equity has been a hot topic nationally and in California in recent years.  According to federal data from 2015, the median wages for women in California are 84.8 percent of those for men.

 

Two years ago, Governor Brown signed into law SB 358 (Jackson) to strengthen California’s Equal Pay Act to require equal pay for “substantially similar” work.  And just last year, the Governor signed AB 1676 (Campos), which provides that salary history cannot, by itself, be used to justify pay inequities.

 

Proponents of salary history bans generally argue that they are necessary to eradicate the gender pay gap, which they contend is exacerbated when employers base compensation on prior rates of pay which may reflect historic inequities.

 

However, employers have generally argued that they utilize salary history information for legitimate, non-discriminatory reasons, such as matching their job offers to current market rates.  In addition, employers have argued that prohibiting them from reviewing salary history information will result in wasted time for both parties where the employee’s expectations or requirements for compensation far exceed what the employer is able to offer for the position.

 

What Can’t Employers Do?

 

AB 168 makes it unlawful for an employer to seek salary history information, orally or in writing, personally or through an agent, about an applicant for employment.  “Salary history information” includes compensation and benefits.

 

In addition, AB 168 prohibits an employer from relying on the salary history information of an applicant as a factor in determining whether to offer employment to an applicant or what salary to offer an applicant.  This language appears to significantly undercut the language enacted last year in AB 1676. AB 1676 specifically provided that salary history cannot “by itself” be used to justify pay inequality, but presumably salary history could still be a relevant factor.  However, AB 168 provides that an employer cannot rely on salary history as “a factor” at all.

 

AB 168 specifies that it does not prohibit an applicant from “voluntarily and without prompting” disclosing salary history information to a prospective employer.  If the applicant does so, the employer may consider or rely on that information in determining the salary for that applicant.

 

In addition, the new law provides that it does not apply to salary history information disclosable to the public pursuant to federal or state law, such as the California Public Records Act or the federal Freedom of Information Act.  Salary information for public employees is largely a matter of public record.

 

What Must Employers Do?

 

AB 168 also requires an employer, upon reasonable request, to provide the pay scale information to an applicant applying for employment.  Therefore, if an applicant inquires as to how much a specific position pays, the employer is required to provide the pay scale for that position.

 

What About Other Pending Related Legislation?

 

Governor Brown signed AB 168 at a press conference with the California Legislative Women’s Conference where he signed a number of bills touted as “supporting California’s women, working parents and children.”

 

Notably absent from the list of bills signed was Assembly Bill 1209 (Gonzalez Fletcher).  That bill would require employers with 500 or more employees to compile gender pay disparity information for exempt employees and board members, and submit that information to the California Secretary of State, who would in turn publish the information on a public website.  Employers have expressed concern that this “wall of shame” bill would assume the employer has violated the law, when existing law expressly allows for pay disparities based on a number of legitimate non-discriminatory reasons (none of which are taken into account in this bill).

 

The Governor’s failure to include AB 1209 in this bill signing ceremony may be telling.  But only time will tell for sure.  The Governor has until October 15 to sign or veto that bill.

 

What Should Employers Do Next?

 

AB 168 goes into effect on January 1, 2018.  Prior to that date, employers should carefully review their employment applications and hiring processes to ensure that they do not impermissibly inquire into, or rely upon, salary history information.  In particular, job applications and new hire packets should be amended to remove any inquiries into prior salary history. In addition, all staff involved in the hiring process should be trained about the law’s new requirements and how it impacts the types of inquiries and questions that are permissible and not permissible.

 

 

Ranstad Workmonitor:  Disconnect between Employers and Employees in ‘Upskilling’ Outlook

Daily News, October 10, 2017

 

A discrepancy exists between employers’ and employees’ attitudes toward upskilling, according to Randstad’s 3rd quarter Workmonitor survey released today.

 

While more than 80% of employees feel they have a responsibility to upskill, many US employers and employees are not taking action for upskilling opportunities in the workplace.  More than one-third of US employees surveyed reported they have done nothing to upskill in the past 12 months; upskilling is defined as attending workshops, completing online courses, receiving consultation from a specialist, participating in personal coaching sessions or pursuing further education.

 

The survey asked US employees to consider a variety of types of upskilling opportunities over the last 12 months:

 

* 67% said they feel they need more training and skills to stay up-to-date.

* Nearly 40% said their employers have not offered and paid for anything related to upskilling.

* 40% said they wouldn’t arrange for and pay out of their own pockets to upskill themselves.

 

The study also queried the types of skills employees seek to improve and revealed that prioritizing personal versus vocational skills runs along a generational divide.  66% of 18 to 34-year-olds feel they need to strengthen their personal skills; however, only 28% of those 45 years and older said they needed to boost their personal skills, with 70% reporting vocational upskilling was critical to their development.

 

“There are many things companies can do to help their employees’ upskill and prepare for jobs of the future,” said Michelle Prince, senior VP, global head of learning and development, Randstad.  “It is in a company’s best interest to help their people grow in their profession or into leadership roles, as this can offset the severe skills gap happening in the market and increase employee engagement and retention.  Employees who are given opportunities to continually advance their professional proficiency are what will keep a company relevant and stay ahead of the competition.”

 

Soft skills are rapidly becoming a more valuable skill in the US workforce, particularly for millennials.  This is especially true with the rise of artificial intelligence.

 

“People are realizing there’s more to being a good worker than knowing how to do your job,” Prince said.  “Learning what is needed for the future, optimizing the tools your company provides and staying current on the industry are important to avoid becoming obsolete at work.  You also have to be able to apply that in the context of being an effective communicator and collaborator when working with others.”

 

Prince advised that upskilling efforts require a strategic combination of both technical understanding and the human element to be effective.  She lauded online learning options like study.com, Mind Tools, Coursera, Degreed, edX, ITPro.tv, Udacity, Udemy, and access to MOOCs from many universities that provide free and low-cost learning opportunities that enable development of technical and soft skills.

 

The Randstad Workmonitor covers 33 countries around the world. The 3rd quarter study was conducted online from July 18 to Aug. 2.  The minimum sample size is 400 interviews per country.

 

 

Companies to Hire More Workers this Q4 than last, Survey says

Daily News, October 6, 2017

 

Employers plan to increase hiring for both seasonal jobs and traditional, ongoing jobs in the fourth quarter, according to CareerBuilder’s annual Q4 2017 Job Forecast survey of hiring managers and workers released today.  A majority of employers also said they plan to increase pay.

 

Looking across industries, the survey found 35% of employers expect to hire seasonal workers in the fourth quarter, up from 33% in a similar survey last year.  Additionally, the percentage of employers that are transitioning seasonal employees into traditional, ongoing staff — which has increased at an accelerated rate over the last few years — reached a new high at 70%.

 

More employers plan to add full-time, ongoing employees in the fourth quarter, with 43% saying they plan to do so, compared with 34% in a similar survey last year.

 

However, in the fourth quarter, 7% of employers expect to reduce staff, compared to 9% last year. And 47% anticipate no change in the fourth quarter; 3% are unsure.

 

Nearly one-fifth of workers surveyed, 19%, said they are looking for a seasonal job over the holidays this year, up from 16% last year.

 

“Our survey is pointing to a significant year-over-year gain in permanent hiring and a smaller boost in seasonal hiring in Q4, though the short-term effects of hurricane damage on the US mainland remain to be seen,” said CareerBuilder CEO Matt Ferguson.  “One of the most telling trends from our research is the fact that many employers are willing to increase pay for both permanent and seasonal staff.  This speaks to the sharpening competitive dynamic among employers that we have seen throughout 2017.”

 

When queried about pay, 51% of employers hiring seasonal employees said they expect to increase pay for seasonal workers in the fourth quarter, with 45% paying $15 or more per hour.

 

For full-time, ongoing employees, 73% of employers plan to increase salaries in the fourth quarter.

 

Among retailers, 50% plan to hire seasonal employees, on par with 49% in last year’s survey.  However, the percentage paying $10 or more per hour jumped to 66% from 53% in 2016 and 43% in 2015.

 

The survey also reviewed third-quarter hiring, and found 44% of employers added full-time, ongoing headcount while 8% decreased headcount, both improvements over the previous year.

 

Top positions for which companies are hiring seasonal talent in the fourth quarter include:

 

* Customer service: 38%

* Accounting/finance: 24%

* Administrative/clerical support: 22%

* Technology: 18%

* Shipping and delivery: 15%

* Inventory management: 14%

* Gift-wrapping: 12%

* Hospitality: 10%

* Sales (nonretail): 9%

* Public relations: 9%

* Marketing: 9%

 

The survey was conducted online within the US by Harris Poll on behalf of CareerBuilder among 2,257 hiring managers and human resource professionals and 3,697 full-time workers.  The survey was conducted from Aug. 16 to Sept. 15, 2017.

 

 

Understanding Artificial Intelligence and its Effect on the Job Market

Fred Coon Blog, October 5, 2017

 

If you’re aware that your current job status is likely to change in relation to the effects of AI, start building your adaptation strategy immediately.

 

Earliest Signs

 

In the 15th Century in the Netherlands, if you were a weaver, it was a manual skill you learned from your mother, and she from hers.  It was a coarse-weave you created, but it was the only thing available.  At least, that was so until the steam or water-powered textile loom came along and took away a large part of your livelihood.

 

That technological behemoth could turn out high quality, finely woven cloth by the yard…by the mile!  That was “automation”—and its first big impact on human labor.

 

People have railed at automation in the past, and these weavers were said to have thrown their wooden shoes (sabot) into the machines in protest.  It may not be true, but it could possibly be where we get the word “sabotage”.

 

There is a Difference

 

We need to make a distinction here.  Automated Manufacture (AM) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) are two completely different concepts, and that must be perfectly clear.

 

Automation is not an intelligent process.  It does eliminate some jobs (usually very difficult ones), but also creates many others.  The machines must be maintained by someone, and usually more is produced, so it must be sold, shipped, and handled, requiring more people.

 

Artificial intelligence, on the other hand, is a simulation of the human thought process by a program designed to take unregulated input, interpret it in a human-centric context, and respond as a human would.  For example:

 

A pair of empty paint cans come down twin conveyor belts, heading for two filling stations—one automated, the other controlled by AI.  On the AM side, the can comes to a stop under a spigot when it hits a solenoid switch.  The AM dispenses one gallon of paint, applies a lid, and presses it closed before sending it on to the labeling machine.

 

On the AI line, the conveyor is halted when a camera recognizes that a paint-can has arrived.  It follows it protocols, fills the can, puts a lid on it, and sends it off to the labeling machine.  The net effect is the same, however…

 

Let’s imagine that the cans fell over, or that they are upside down.  Now what happens?  The AM machine is going to pump a gallon of paint and make a mess.  The AI machine will not.

 

It has been trained to react to problems.  Maybe it has an air-powered piston that will kick the can into a “reject” container.  If it is really sophisticated, it may have a system to rotate a can under its scanner until it recognizes that the can is oriented properly before proceeding with the operation.  In either case, no paint was wasted, no mess was made, and the company saved money.

 

There are lots of examples of routine, middle-skilled jobs that involve relatively structured tasks, and those are the jobs that are being eliminated the fastest.  Those kinds of jobs are easier for our friends in the artificial intelligence community to design robots to handle them.  They could be software robots; they could be physical robots—Erik Brynjolfsson; American Academic, Professor /Director at MIT

 

AI Learning

 

As AI advances, it can be left on its own to experiment (either in reality or in simulations; it has no way to tell the difference).  It has massive speed and infinite patience so it can try every possible combination within the parameters given by its human teacher.

 

After thousands and thousands of tries, it learns to group certain actions together that lead to success, and eliminate strategies that always fail.  This is the way humans learn, too.

 

Advantages

 

A sufficiently indoctrinated AI is called an “Expert System”.  Consider an AI programmed with all the knowledge, techniques, and strategies of the top 20 Thoracic Surgeons in the entire world.  That would be great if the International Space Station had a remote Robotic Surgeon and an astronaut had appendicitis.  And that’s only 250 miles.  How about that same unit (dozens of copies) all over the world run from a central location, or each being discrete and autonomous?

 

That expertise can cover any field from auto mechanics to particle physics, but it can go a step further and freely combine the knowledge of one field with another in order to make new connections and extrapolations that humans might not make for years, centuries, or ever.  The fact is that a hacker doesn’t know what an electrician knows, who doesn’t know what a gardener knows, who doesn’t know what an electronics engineer knows, and so on…  Blending of knowledge could remove most of the impediments to our progress.

 

For example, we talk about esoteric materials—like Carbon Nanotubes—being necessary to build a “space elevator”.  We require a material strong enough to support its own weight from Geo-stationary Orbit all the way down to the surface of the Earth so that a ride into space would cost between $1-3.00 per kilogram, instead of our current price of up to $20,000 per kilogram via rocket.

 

That’s all very noble, but it is difficult to accomplish.  Scientists have been working on this for decades and still haven’t come up with an answer.  An AI might be able to solve the problem in weeks or months.  Maybe we already have the knowledge for anti-gravity, warp drive, or teleporters, but it is spread over dozens of fields and professions, and might never be discovered because there are so many barriers to understanding between disciplines.

 

Disadvantage—You’ll have to learn

 

Jobs like data entry and server maintenance have the potential for going the way of the dinosaur.  These are easy tasks for early and basic artificial intelligence programs.

 

If you want to go into the field of artificial intelligence yourself, it’s going to be necessary to study things like statistics, robotics, and algebra.  There are even courses of study arising in our educational institutions.  Do your research to make sure that they are not just pandering and are actually offering something of value.

 

If you want to stick to the more familiar things, then Data Science is probably a very good bet.  We’re still going to need human minds to figure out how to sort Big Data to get the most use out of it.  So make sure you understand things like Ruby, Python, Hadoop, SQL, Java, and JavaScript, of course.

 

Jobs will go, but new ones will arise

 

AI will displace workers—there is no doubt—but people already working in Tech will have a relatively easy time of upgrading their skills to remain relevant.  For people outside of tech, there are still opportunities.

 

The job of teaching AIs how to understand spoken English is falling to actual English teachers.  By simply expanding their skills a tiny bit in the computer field, they suddenly become a much-desired commodity in the world of computer AI development.

 

If you step back and look at technology from every era, it has displaced jobs but also created a lot of jobs—Ginni Rometty; American Businesswoman, President/CEO of IBM

 

It’s only going to get better

 

AI will eventually be able to spot a cyberattack in mere microseconds, and end it.  Right now, however, security is a great field to be working in.  Some employees still make poor judgments like open unexpected e-mail attachments, or follow links to unvetted websites.  And, as with anything new, IoT, or the Internet of Things, is exposing us to a brand new collection of vulnerabilities.

 

In the latter case, the camera which you have covering your inside front door so that you can see when the kids get home from school—it might be hackable and accessible to anyone in your neighborhood.  The same is true for that nanny-cam you keep in the children’s bedroom “just in case”.  If you can write code that delivers unhackable IoT devices so parents know that strangers aren’t watching their children, you’ll have a job for life.

 

The Takeaway

 

Knowing that change is coming, and is inevitable, is what will allow you to be prepared.  Don’t wait until the last moment.  If what you are doing now is likely to change substantially, start building your adaptation strategy immediately.  This is all the warning you are likely to get so take advantage of it!

 

 

The new ADP/Moody’s National Employment Report:  Almost 62% of all new job growth in October 2017 came from Small and Medium-size Companies!

November 1, 2017

 

Private sector employment increased by 235,000 jobs from September to October (a 125,000 job increase from September’s revised 110,000—down by 25,000 from the originally reported 135,000), according to the October ADP National Employment Report®.

 

This report is produced by ADP® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics.  The matched sample used to develop the ADP National Employment Report® was derived from ADP payroll data, which represents 411,000 U.S. clients employing nearly 24,000,000 workers in the U.S.

 

By Company Size

 

Small businesses:       79,000

1-19 employees           43,000

20-49 employees         36,000

 

Medium businesses:  66,000

50-499 employees       66,000

 

Large businesses:      90,000

500-999 employees     20,000

1,000+ employees       70,000

 

By Sector

 

  1. Goods-producing:                                          85,000

 

  1. Natural resources/mining                           1,000
  2. Construction                                             62,000
  3. Manufacturing                                          22,000

 

  1. Service-providing:     150,000

 

  1. Trade/transportation/utilities          <-50,000>
  2. Information                                  <-27,000>
  3. Financial activities                9,000
  4. Professional/business services 109,000
  5. Professional/technical services                                68,000
  6. Management of companies/enterprises                      8,000
  7. Administrative/support services                              34,000
  8. Education/health services                           39,000
  9. Health care/social assistance                                   44,000
  10. Education                                                                <-5,000>
  11. Leisure/hospitality                                      45,000
  12. Other services                                            24,000

 

Franchise Employment

 

Franchise Jobs             30,600

 

“The job market remains healthy and hiring bounced back with one of the best performances we’ve seen all year,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.  “Although the service providing sector was hard hit last month due to the weather, we saw significant growth in professional services, especially in the higher paid professional technical jobs.  Additionally, small businesses rebounded well from the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, posting very strong gains.”

 

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market rebounded strongly from the hit it took from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.  Resurgence in construction jobs shows the rebuilding is already in full swing.  Looking through the hurricane-created volatility, job growth is robust.”

 

 (The November 2017 ADP National Employment Report will be released at 8:15 a.m. ET on December 6, 2017.)

 

Due to the important contribution that small businesses make to economic growth, employment data that is specific to businesses with 49 or fewer employees is reported each month in the ADP Small Business Report®, a subset of the ADP National Employment Report.

 

October 2017 Small Business Report Highlights

 

Total Small Business Employment:             79,000 (an 86,000 increase)

 

●By Size  
►1-19 employees 43,000
►20-49 employees 36,000
●By Sector for 1-49 Employees  
►Goods Producing 32,000
►Service Producing 47,000
●By Sector for 1-19 Employees  
►Goods Producing 18,000
►Service Producing 25,000
●By Sector for 20-49 Employees  
►Goods Producing 14,000
►Service Producing 22,000

 

Bottom-line:  To my audience of recruiters, always remember this:  Our ‘bread and butter’, especially on the contingency side of the house, has historically been, and continues to be, small and medium-sized client companies.  Along with the large companies, these companies need to be in included in your niche!

 

 

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary – August 2017

October 11, 2017

 

On October 11th, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the number of job openings was little changed at 6,100,000 on the last business day of August.  Over the month, hires and separations were also little changed at 5,400,000 and 5,200,000, respectively.  Within separations, the quits rate and the layoffs and discharges rate were little changed at 2.1% and 1.2%, respectively.  This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by 4 geographic regions.

 

Job Openings

 

On the last business day of August, there were 6,100,000 job openings, little changed from July.  The job openings rate was 4.0% in August.  The number of job openings was little changed for total private and for government.  Job openings increased in health care and social assistance (+71,000) and in durable goods manufacturing (+31,000).  Job openings decreased in other services (-95,000), educational services (-51,000), and nondurable goods manufacturing (-48,000).  The number of job openings increased in the Midwest region.

 

Hires

 

The number of hires was little changed at 5,400,000 in August.  The hires rate was 3.7%.   The number of hires was little changed for total private and for government.  The number of hires was little changed in all industries.  Hires decreased in the Northeast region.

 

Separations

 

Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations.  Total separations is referred to as turnover.  Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee.  Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs.  Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer.  Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.

 

The number of total separations was little changed at 5,200,000 in August.  The total separations rate was 3.6%.  The number of total separations was little changed for total private and for government.  Total separations was little changed in all industries.  The number of total separations decreased in the South region.

 

The number of quits was little changed at 3,100,000 in August.  The quits rate was 2.1%.  The number of quits was little changed for total private and for government.  Quits decreased in information (-14,000) and mining and logging (-6,000).  In the regions, the number of quits increased in the West, but decreased in the South.

 

There were 1,700,000 layoffs and discharges in August, little changed from July.  The layoffs and discharges rate was 1.2% in August.  The number of layoffs and discharges was little changed for total private and for government.  The layoffs and discharges level decreased in state and local government education (-11,000) and federal government

(-4,000).  The number of layoffs and discharges was little changed in all 4 regions.

 

The number of other separations was little changed in August.  Other separations was little changed for total private and for government.  Other separations was also little changed in all industries and regions.

 

Net Change in Employment

 

Large numbers of hires and separations occur every month throughout the business cycle.  Net employment change results from the relationship between hires and separations.  When the number of hires exceeds the number of separations, employment rises, even if the hires level is steady or declining.  Conversely, when the number of hires is less than the number of separations, employment declines, even if the hires level is steady or rising.  Over the 12 months ending in August, hires totaled 63,800,000 and separations totaled 61,700,000, yielding a net employment gain of 2,100,000.  These totals include workers who may have been hired and separated more than once during the year.

____________

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey results for September 2017 are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, November 7, 2017 at 10:00 a.m. (EDT).

 

 

As we recruiters know, that 6,100,000 number only represents 20% of the jobs currently available in the marketplace.  The other 80% of job openings are unpublished and are filled through networking or word of mouth or by using a RECRUITER.   So, those 6,100,000 published job openings now become a total of 30,500,000 published AND hidden job orders.

 

In October there were 6,520,000 unemployed workers.  What was the main reason why those workers were unemployed?  Two Words:  Structural Unemployment.  If we can’t figure out how to educate and/or reeducate those 6,520,000 unemployed, then they will keep reappearing each month as a BLS unemployment statistic—as they have.  In the meantime, our recruitment marketplace flourishes!

 

 

Online Job Ads Increased 81,500 in October

November 1, 2017

 

*All 4 regions experienced gains lead by the South

*Most occupations showed gains over the month

 

Online advertised vacancies increased 81,500 to 4,563,800 in October, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series, released today.  The September Supply/Demand rate stands at 1.52 unemployed for each advertised vacancy, with a total of 2,300,000 more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies.  The number of unemployed was approximately 6,800,000 in September.

 

The Professional occupational category saw gains in Management (8.5) and Business and Financial (6.7).  The Services/Production occupational category saw gains in Transportation (32.1), Office and Administrative Support (15.7), and Food Preparation and Serving (11.0).

 

NOTE:  Recently, the HWOL Data Series has experienced a declining trend in the number of online job ads that may not reflect broader trends in the U.S. labor market.  Based on changes in how job postings appear online, The Conference Board is reviewing its HWOL methodology to ensure accuracy and alignment with market trends.

 

OCCUPATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

 

*In October, 8 of the largest 10 online occupational categories posted increases

Management ads increased 8,500 to 380,300.  The supply/demand rate lies at 1.09, i.e. over 1 job-seeker for every advertised available opening.

 

Business and financial operations ads increased 6,700 to 272,200.  The supply/demand rate lies at 0.91, i.e. over 1 advertised opening per unemployed job-seeker.

 

Education, training, and library ads increased 5,300 to 159,200.  The supply/demand rate lies at 1.40, i.e. over 1 unemployed job-seeker for every advertised available opening.

 

Transportation ads increased 32,100 to 340,700.  The supply/demand rate lies at 1.71, i.e. over 1 advertised opening per unemployed job-seeker.

 

Food preparation and serving related ads increased 11,000 to 226,600.  The supply/demand rate lies at 2.15, i.e. over 2 unemployed job-seekers for every advertised available opening.

 

Office and administrative support ads increased 15,700 to 481,800.  The supply/demand rate lies at 1.68, i.e. over 1 unemployed job-seeker for every advertised available opening.

 

(The November 2017 Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series will be released at 10:00 AM ET on Wednesday, December 6, 2017).

 

 

U-6 Update

 

In October, 2017 the regular unemployment number fell one-tenth to 4.1%, and the broader U-6 measure fell four-tenths to 7.9%.  This number has fallen seven-tenths of one percent over the last two months!

 

The above 7.9% is referred to as the U-6 unemployment rate (found in the monthly BLS Employment Situation Summary, Table A-15; Table A-12 in 2008 and before).  It counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts “marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons.”  Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week.  And the “marginally attached workers” include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work.  The age considered for this calculation is 16 year and over.

 

Here is a look at the October U-6 numbers for the past 14 years:

 

October 2016              9.5%

October 2015              9.8%

October 2014              11.5%

October 2013              13.7%

October 2012              14.5%

October 2011              16.0%

October 2010              17.0%

October 2009              17.4%

October 2008              12.0%

October 2007              8.4%

October 2006              8.1%

October 2005              8.6%

October 2004              9.4%

October 2003              10.2%

 

 

The October 2017 BLS Analysis

 

According to the October 2017 Employment Situation Summary, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a division of the US Department of Labor, the total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 261,000 in October – and increase of 243,000 over last month’s revised 18,000 increase—versus the first reported 33,000 job loss!

 

The unemployment rate is also published by the BLS.  That rate is found by dividing the number of unemployed by the total civilian labor force.  On November 3rd, 2017, the BLS published the most recent unemployment rate for October 2017 of 4.1% (actually it is 4.065%, down by .155% from 4.220%, in September, 2017.  This is the lowest unemployment rate in about 17 years!

 

The unemployment rate was determined by dividing the unemployed of 6,520,000

(–down from the month before by 281,000—since October, 2016 this number has decreased by 1,220,000) by the total civilian labor force of 160,381,000 (down by 765,000 from September, 2017).  Since October 2016, our total civilian labor force has increased by 738,000 workers.

 

(The continuing ‘Strange BLS Math’ saga—after a detour in December when the BLS {for the first time in years} DECREASED the total Civilian Noninstitutional Population—this month the BLS again increased this total to 255,766,000.  This is an increase of 204,000 from last month’s increase of 205,000.  In one year’s time, this population has increased by 1,445,000. The Civilian Noninstitutional Population has increased each month—except in December 2016—by…)

 

Up from September 2017 by 204,000
Up from August 2017 by 205,000
Up from July 2017 by 206,000
Up from June 2017 by 194,000
Up from May 2017 by 173,000
Up from April 2017 by 179,000
Up from March 2017 by 174,000
Up from February 2017 by 168,000
Up from January 2017 by 164,000
Down from December 2016 by 660,000
Up from November 2016 by 202,000
Up from October 2016 by 219,000
Up from September 2016 by 230,000
Up from August 2016 by 237,000
Up from July 2016 by 234,000
Up from June 2016 by 223,000
Up from May 2016 by 223,000
Up from April 2016 by 205,000
Up from March 2016 by 201,000
Up from February 2016 by 191,000
Up from January 2016 by 180,000
Up from December 2015 by 461,000
Up from November 2015 by 189,000
Up from October 2015 by 206,000
Up from September 2015 by 216,000
Up from August 2015 by 229,000
Up from July 2015 by 220,000
Up from June 2015 by 213,000
Up from May 2015 by 208,000
Up from April 2015 by 189,000
Up from March 2015 by 186,000
Up from February 2015 by 191,000
Up from January 2015 by 176,000
Up from December 2014 by 696,000
Up from November 2014 by 143,000
Up from October 2014 by 187,000
Up from September 2014 by 211,000
Up from August 2014 by 217,000
Up from July 2014 by 206,000
Up from June 2014 by 209,000
Up from May 2014 by 192,000
Up from April 2014 by 183,000
Up from March 2014 by 181,000
Up from February 2014 by 173,000
Up from January 2014 by 170,000
Up from December 2013 by 170,000
Up from November 2013 by 178,000
Up from October 2013 by 186,000
Up from September 2013 by 213,000
Up from August 2013 by 209,000
Up from July 2013 by 203,000
Up from June 2013 by 204,000
Up from May 2013 by 189,000
Up from April 2013 by 188,000
Up from March 2013 by 180,000
Up from February 2013 by 167,000
Up from January 2013 by 165,000
Up from December 2012 by 313,000
Up from November 2012 by 176,000
Up from October 2012 by 191,000
Up from September 2012 by 211,000
Up from August 2012 by 206,000
Up from July 2012 by 212,000
Up from June 2012 by 199,000
Up from May 2012 by 189,000
Up from April 2012 by 182,000
Up from March 2012 by 180,000
Up from February 2012 by 169,000
Up from January 2012 by 335,000
Up from December 2011 by 2,020,000

 

This month the BLS has decreased the Civilian Labor Force to 160,381,000 (down from September by 765,000).

 

Subtract the second number (‘civilian labor force’) from the first number (‘civilian noninstitutional population’) and you get 95,385,000 ‘Not in Labor Force’—up by 968,000 from last month’s 94,417,000.  In one year’s time, this NILF population has increased by 707,000.  The government tells us that most of these NILFs got discouraged and just gave up looking for a job.  My monthly recurring question is:  “If that is the case, how do they survive when they don’t earn any money because they don’t have a job?  Are they ALL relying on the government to support them??”

 

This month our Employment Participation Rate—the population 16 years and older working or seeking work— fell .4% to 62.7%.  This is .3% above the historically low rate of 62.4% recorded in September 2015—and, before that, the rate recorded in October 1977—9 months into Jimmy Carter’s presidency—almost 40 years ago!

 

Final take on these numbers:  Fewer people looking for work will always bring down the unemployment rate.

 

Anyway, back to the point I am trying to make.  On the surface, these new unemployment rates are scary, but let’s look a little deeper and consider some other numbers.

 

The unemployment rate includes all types of workers—construction workers, government workers, etc.  We recruiters, on the other hand, mainly place management, professional and related types of workers.  That unemployment rate in October was 2.1% (this rate was .2% lower than last month’s 2.3%).  Or, you can look at it another way.  We usually place people who have college degrees.  That unemployment rate in October was 2.0% (this rate was .3% lower than last month’s 2.3%).

 

Now stay with me a little longer.  This gets better.  It’s important to understand (and none of the pundits mention this) that the unemployment rate, for many reasons, will never be 0%, no matter how good the economy is.  Without boring you any more than I have already, let me add here that Milton Friedman (the renowned Nobel Prize-winning economist), is famous for the theory of the “natural rate of unemployment” (or the term he preferred, NAIRU, which is the acronym for Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment).  Basically, this theory states that full employment presupposes an ‘unavoidable and acceptable’ unemployment rate of somewhere between 4-6% with it.  Economists often settle on 5%, although the “New Normal Unemployment Rate” has been suggested to fall at 6.7%.

 

Nevertheless (if you will allow me to apply a ‘macro’ concept to a ‘micro’ issue), if this rate is applied to our main category of Management, Professional and Related types of potential recruits, and/or our other main category of College-Degreed potential recruits, we are well below the 4-6% threshold for full employment…we find no unemployment!  None!  Zilch!  A Big Goose Egg!

 

 

THE IMPORTANCE OF GDP

 

“The economic goal of any nation, as of any individual, is to get the greatest results with the least effort.  The whole economic progress of mankind has consisted in getting more production with the same labor…Translated into national terms, this first principle means that our real objective is to maximize production.  In doing this, full employment—that is, the absence of involuntary idleness—becomes a necessary by-product.  But production is the end, employment merely the means.  We cannot continuously have the fullest production without full employment.  But we can very easily have full employment without full production.”

 

Economics in One Lesson, by Henry Hazlitt, Chapter X, “The Fetish of Full Employment”

On October 27th, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced the real gross domestic product (GDP) — the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes — increased at an annual rate of 3.0% in the third quarter of 2017, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter of 2017, real GDP increased 3.1%. The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter advance estimate is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency.  The “second” estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 29, 2017. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and federal government spending.  These increases were partly offset by negative contributions from residential fixed investment and state and local government spending.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. The deceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter primarily reflected decelerations in PCE, in nonresidential fixed investment, and in exports that were partly offset by an acceleration in private inventory investment and a downturn in imports.                         .Three Update Releases to GDP BEA releases 3 vintages of the current quarterly estimate for GDP:  “advance” estimates are released near the end of the first month following the end of the quarter and are based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency; “second” and “third” estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively, and are based on more detailed and more comprehensive data as they become available. Annual and comprehensive updates are typically released in late July.  Annual updates generally cover at least the 3 most recent calendar years (and their associated quarters) and incorporate newly available major annual source data as well as some changes in methods and definitions to improve the accounts.  Comprehensive (or benchmark) updates are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as major conceptual improvements.

(The Third Quarter 2017 “Second” Estimate will be released on November 29th, 2017)

 

 

IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR UNEMPLOYMENT EVER TO BE ZERO

 

‘Unemployment’ is an emotional ‘trigger’ word…a ‘third rail’, if you will.  It conjures up negative thoughts.  But it is important to realize that, while we want everyone who wants a job to have the opportunity to work, unemployment can never be zero and, in fact, can be disruptive to an economy if it gets too close to zero.  Very low unemployment can actually hurt the economy by creating an upward pressure on wages which invariably leads to higher production costs and prices.  This can lead to inflation.  The lowest the unemployment rate has been in the US was 2.5%.  That was in May and June 1953 when the economy overheated due to the Korean War.  When this bubble burst, it kicked off the Recession of 1953.  A healthy economy will always include some percentage of unemployment.

 

There are five main sources of unemployment:

 

  1. Cyclical (or demand-deficient) unemployment – This type of unemployment fluctuates with the business cycle. It rises during a recession and falls during the subsequent recovery.  Workers who are most affected by this type of unemployment are laid off during a recession when production volumes fall and companies use lay-offs as the easiest way to reduce costs.  These workers are usually rehired, some months later, when the economy improves.

 

  1. Frictional unemployment – This comes from the normal turnover in the labor force. This is where new workers are entering the workforce and older workers are retiring and leaving vacancies to be filled by the new workers or those re-entering the workforce.  This category includes workers who are between jobs.

 

  1. Structural unemployment – This happens when the skills possessed by the unemployed worker don’t match the requirements of the opening—whether those be in characteristics and skills or in location. This can come from new technology or foreign competition (e.g., foreign outsourcing).  This type of unemployment usually lasts longer than frictional unemployment because retraining, and sometimes relocation, is involved.  Occasionally jobs in this category can just disappear overseas.

 

  1. Seasonal unemployment – This happens when the workforce is affected by the climate or time of year. Construction workers and agricultural workers aren’t needed as much during the winter season because of the inclement weather.  On the other hand, retail workers experience an increase in hiring shortly before, and during, the holiday season, but can be laid off shortly thereafter.

 

  1. Surplus unemployment – This is caused by minimum wage laws and unions. When wages are set at a higher level, unemployment can often result.  Why?  To keep within the same payroll budget, the company must let go of some workers to pay the remaining workers a higher salary.

 

Other factors influencing the unemployment rate:

 

  1. Length of unemployment – Some studies indicate that an important factor influencing a workers decision to accept a new job is directly related to the length of the unemployment benefit they are receiving. Currently, in 2017, workers in most states are eligible for up to 26 weeks of benefits from the regular state-funded unemployment compensation program, although eight states provide fewer weeks and one provides more. Studies suggest that additional weeks of benefits reduce the incentive of the unemployed to seek and accept less desirable jobs.

 

  1. Changes in GDP – Since hiring workers takes time, the improvement in the unemployment rate usually lags behind the improvement in the GDP.

 

WHERE RECRUITERS PLACE

 

Now back to the issue at hand, namely the recruiting, and placing, of professionals and those with college degrees.

 

If you take a look at the past few years of unemployment in the October “management, professional and related” types of worker category, you will find the following rates:

 

October 2016              2.5%

October 2015              2.2%

October 2014              2.7%

October 2013              3.4%

October 2012              3.8%

October 2011              4.4%

October 2010              4.5%

October 2009              4.7%

October 2008              3.0%

October 2007              2.0%

October 2006              1.9%

October 2005              2.2%

October 2004              2.4%

October 2003              2.9%

October 2002              2.8%

 

Here are the rates, during those same time periods, for “college-degreed” workers:

 

October 2016              2.6%

October 2015              2.5%

October 2014              3.0%

October 2013              3.8%

October 2012              3.7%

October 2011              4.4%

October 2010              4.7%

October 2009              4.7%

October 2008              3.1%

October 2007              2.1%

October 2006              1.9%

October 2005              2.3%

October 2004              2.5%

October 2003              3.1%

October 2002              3.0%

 

The October 2017 rates for these two categories, 2.1% and 2.0%, respectively, are low again this month and are at or close to the halcyon numbers we attained in the 2005-2007 time frames.  But regardless, these unemployment numbers usually include a good number of job hoppers, job shoppers and rejects.  We, on the other hand, are engaged by our client companies to find those candidates who are happy, well-appreciated, making good money and currently working and we entice them to move for even better opportunities—especially where new technologies are expanding.  This will never change.  And that is why, no matter the overall unemployment rate, we still need to MARKET to find the best possible job orders to work and we still need to RECRUIT to find the best possible candidates for those Job Orders.

 

 

 

Below are the numbers for the over 25 year olds:

 

 

Less than H.S. diploma – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
7.7% 7.4% 8.2% 7.9% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 9.7% 9.8% 10.4% 10.6% 10.9%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
12.0% 12.6% 13.3% 14.8% 15.5% 15.5% 15.4% 15.6% 15.0% 15.5% 15.0% 15.3%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
15.2% 15.6% 14.5% 14.7% 15.0% 14.1% 13.8% 14.0% 15.4% 15.3% 15.7% 15.3%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
14.2% 13.9% 13.7% 14.6% 14.7% 14.3% 15.0% 14.3% 14.0% 13.8% 13.2% 13.8%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
13.1% 12.9% 12.6% 12.5% 13.0% 12.6% 12.7% 12.0% 11.3% 12.2% 12.2% 11.7%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
12.0% 11.2% 11.1% 11.6% 11.1% 10.7% 11.0% 11.3% 10.3% 10.9% 10.8% 9.8%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
9.6% 9.8% 9.6% 8.9% 9.1% 9.1% 9.6% 9.1% 8.4% 7.9% 8.5% 8.8%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
8.5% 8.4% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.2% 8.3% 7.7% 7.7% 7.3% 6.8% 6.7%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
7.4% 7.3% 7.4% 7.5% 7.1% 7.5% 6.3% 7.2% 8.5% 7.3% 7.9% 7.9%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
7.7% 7.9% 6.8% 6.5% 6.1% 6.4% 6.9% 6.0% 6.5% 5.7%

 

H.S. Grad; no college – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
4.6% 4.7% 5.1% 5.0% 5.2% 5.2% 5.3% 5.8% 6.3% 6.5% 6.9% 7.7%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
8.1% 8.3% 9.0% 9.3% 10.0% 9.8% 9.4% 9.7% 10.8% 11.2% 10.4% 10.5%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.5% 10.8% 10.6% 10.9% 10.8% 10.1% 10.3% 10.0% 10.1% 10.0% 9.8%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.4% 9.5% 9.5% 9.7% 9.5% 10.0% 9.3% 9.6% 9.7% 9.6% 8.8% 8.7%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.4% 8.3% 8.0% 7.9% 8.1% 8.4% 8.7% 8.8% 8.7% 8.4% 8.1% 8.0%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.1% 7.9% 7.6% 7.4% 7.4% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.3% 7.3% 7.1%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.5% 6.4% 6.3% 6.3% 6.5% 5.8% 6.1% 6.2% 5.3% 5.7% 5.6% 5.3%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.4% 5.8% 5.4% 5.5% 5.5% 5.3% 5.3% 5.4% 5.6%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
5.3% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 5.1% 5.2% 5.5% 4.9% 5.1%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
5.3% 5.0% 4.9% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5% 5.1% 4.3% 4.3%

 

Some College; or AA/AS – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
3.7% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.6% 5.0% 5.1% 5.3% 5.5% 5.6%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
6.2% 7.0% 7.2% 7.4% 7.7% 8.0% 7.9% 8.2% 8.5% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
8.5% 8.0% 8.2% 8.3% 8.3% 8.2% 8.3% 8.7% 9.1% 8.5% 8.7% 8.1%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
8.0% 7.8% 7.4% 7.5% 8.0% 8.4% 8.3% 8.2% 8.4% 8.3% 7.6% 7.7%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
7.2% 7.3% 7.5% 7.6% 7.9% 7.5% 7.1% 6.6% 6.5% 6.9% 6.6% 6.9%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
7.0% 6.7% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5% 6.4% 6.0% 6.1% 6.0% 6.3% 6.4% 6.1%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.0% 6.2% 6.1% 5.7% 5.5% 5.0% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.2% 5.1% 4.8% 4.7% 4.4% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.4% 4.1%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 3.9% 3.8%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
3.8% 4.0% 3.7% 3.7% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.8% 3.6% 3.7%

 

BS/BS + – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 2.6% 3.1% 3.2% 3.7%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
3.8% 4.1% 4.3% 4.4% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.9% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.9% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.4% 4.7% 5.1% 4.8%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.2% 4.3% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.1%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% 3.4% 3.3%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 3.1% 3.2% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 2.8%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.8% 2.7% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.3% 2.5%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.0%

 

Management, Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 3.3% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 4.0% 4.6% 5.0% 5.5% 5.4% 5.2% 4.7% 4.6% 4.6%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 4.5% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 4.4% 4.5% 4.7% 4.6%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.7% 4.4% 4.3% 4.0% 4.4% 4.7% 5.0% 4.9% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 4.2%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 3.7% 4.0% 4.4% 4.8% 4.5% 3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.9%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 4.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.5% 3.4% 3.1% 2.9%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 2.9% 3.1% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 2.7%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.9% 2.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.9% 3.1% 2.9% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% 2.8% 3.0% 3.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 2.3% 2.7% 2.8% 2.3% 2.1%

 

Or employed…(,000)

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
52,165 52,498 52,681 52,819 52,544 52,735 52,655 52,626 53,104 53,485 53,274 52,548

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
52,358 52,196 52,345 52,597 52,256 51,776 51,810 51,724 52,186 52,981 52,263 52,131

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
52,159 52,324 52,163 52,355 51,839 51,414 50,974 50,879 51,757 51,818 52,263 51,704

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
51,866 52,557 53,243 53,216 52,778 52,120 51,662 51,997 52,665 52,864 52,787 52,808

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
53,152 53,208 53,771 54,055 54,156 53,846 53,165 53,696 54,655 55,223 54,951 54,635

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
54,214 54,563 54,721 54,767 54,740 54,323 54,064 54,515 55,013 55,155 55,583 54,880

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
55,096 55,501 56,036 55,896 56,202 55,714 55,381 55,646 56,365 56,759 57,110 56,888

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
57,367 57,596 57,805 57,953 58,155 57,710 57,392 57,288 58,105 58,456 58,667 59,030

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
59,014 59,583 60,080 59,690 59,613 59,181 58,434 58,526 59,599 59,766 59,707 60,069

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
59,921 61,064 61,156 61,317 61,174 60,705 59,923 59,559 60,990 61,062

 

 

And unemployed…(,000)

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
1,164 1,159 1,121 1,088 1,407 1,478 1,585 1,779 1,539 1,647 1,786 1,802

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
2,238 2,137 2,292 2,164 2,373 2,720 3,034 2,925 2,859 2,593 2,530 2,509

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
2,762 2,637 2,600 2,464 2,450 2,644 2,687 2,762 2,381 2,417 2,525 2,468

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
2,557 2,435 2,381 2,196 2,419 2,598 2,742 2,671 2,450 2,410 2,336 2,303

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
2,410 2,336 2,330 2,062 2,275 2,472 2,666 2,556 2,245 2,170 2,077 2,221

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
2,211 2,164 2,020 1,980 1,990 2,358 2,286 2,130 1,978 1,930 1,749 1,637

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
1,784 1,845 1,890 1,642 1,795 2,001 2,011 1,930 1,617 1,582 1,656 1,568

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
1,741 1,601 1,398 1,435 1,460 1,714 1,807 1,686 1,414 1,312 1,276 1,208

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
1,404 1,456 1,477 1,251 1,305 1,712 1,782 1,869 1,652 1,506 1,382 1,361

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
1,425 1,313 1,265 1,254 1,208 1,440 1,656 1,731 1,463 1,285

 

For a total Management, Professional & Related workforce of…(,000)

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
53,329 53,657 53,802 53,907 53,951 54,213 54,240 54,405 54,643 55,132 55,060 54,350

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
54,596 54,333 54,637 54,761 54,629 54,496 54,844 54,649 55,045 55,574 54,793 54,640

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
54,921 54,961 54,763 54,819 54,289 54,058 53,661 53,641 54,138 54,235 54,788 54,172

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
54,423 54,992 55,624 55,412 55,197 54,718 54,404 54,668 55,115 55,274 55,123 55,111

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
55,562 55,544 56,101 56,117 56,431 56,318 55,831 56,252 56,900 57,393 57,028 56,856

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
56,425 56,727 56,741 56,747 56,730 56,681 56,350 56,645 56,991 57,085 57,332 56,517

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
56,880 57,346 57,926 57,538 57,997 57,715 57,392 57,576 57,982 58,341 58,766 58,456

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
59,108 59,197 59,203 59,388 59,615 59,424 59,199 58,974 59,519 59,768 59,943 60,238

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
60,418 61,039 61,557 60,941 60,918 60,893 60,216 60,395 61,251 61,272 61,089 61,430

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
61,346 62,377 62,421 62,571 62,382 62,145 61,579 61,290 62,453 62,347

 

Management, Business and Financial Operations – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 3.0% 3.6% 3.9%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.4% 5.2%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.2% 5.1% 5.4% 5.1% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.9% 4.3% 5.0% 5.5% 5.7%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
5.3% 4.9% 4.8% 4.6% 4.9% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 4.4%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.5% 4.4% 4.4% 4.0% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 4.1%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
4.0% 3.9% 3.5% 3.5% 3.8% 3.5% 3.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.7% 3.2% 3.1%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.4% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.9% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 1.9%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.3% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.8% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.4% 2.5% 1.9%

 

Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.9% 3.2% 3.6% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.9% 4.6% 4.3% 4.1% 4.3% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3% 4.4% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.3% 4.1% 3.9% 3.5% 4.0% 4.9% 5.3% 5.1% 4.4% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.8% 5.5% 5.2% 4.3% 3.9% 3.5% 3.8%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 4.6% 4.7% 4.0% 3.6% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 2.6% 2.9% 4.0% 4.1% 3.9% 3.1% 2.7% 2.9% 2.8%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.9% 2.7% 2.2% 2.3% 2.1% 3.2% 3.6% 3.3% 2.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.4% 2.2% 2.3% 1.8% 2.0% 3.1% 3.4% 3.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.2% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 2.6% 3.3% 3.1% 2.3% 2.2%

 

Sales & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
5.2% 5.2% 4.8% 4.3% 5.1% 5.6% 6.2% 6.3% 5.7% 6.1% 6.5% 7.0%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
7.7% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 8.9% 9.1% 8.3% 8.7% 8.9% 9.5% 9.1% 8.9%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.2% 9.7% 9.2% 9.6% 9.4% 10.1% 9.0% 9.4% 9.1% 8.8% 8.3%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.3% 9.0% 8.5% 8.5% 9.4% 9.7% 9.4% 8.6% 9.4% 8.2% 7.8% 7.7%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.2% 7.9% 8.1% 7.6% 7.9% 8.4% 8.3% 8.6% 7.9% 7.0% 7.3% 7.0%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.5% 8.2% 7.7% 6.9% 7.1% 6.7% 6.9% 7.2% 7.5% 7.3% 7.0% 6.3%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
7.1% 7.7% 6.8% 5.8% 6.8% 6.1% 6.2% 5.6% 5.4% 5.2% 5.3% 5.0%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.8% 5.2% 5.8% 5.5% 5.8% 5.6% 5.8% 5.4% 5.6% 5.3% 5.1% 4.3%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
5.0% 4.4% 4.4% 5.2% 5.1% 4.9% 4.9% 4.8% 5.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.6%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
5.2% 4.3% 3.9% 4.2% 4.5% 4.8% 4.2% 4.2% 3.7% 4.0%