BLS Analysis for Recruiters January 2023

By on February 5, 2023 in BLS Analysis

Bob Marshall’s January 2023 BLS Analysis for Recruiters;

2/3/23

January BLS Preface

TBMG Coaching Updates and Product News:

Time to engage a Coach?

I realize that taking that first step to engage a Coach to help you reach a higher level of production is not as easy as it sounds.  After all, your training investment – and your time – are important and deserve every consideration.  I share your feelings.  I believe that how you approach your recruitment career matters…that you should get what you pay for, and then some…that you should enjoy your time with your Coach as you are benefiting from it…and that you should never settle for the ordinary.

So for those of you who have been toying with the idea of working with a recruitment coach (and for those of you who have tried a coach and it just didn’t work out), now may be the time to pick a coach who molds the training around the recruiter and not the recruiter around the training.  In Coaching, as in Life, Flexibility is Key!

When considering ‘individual change management’, think of the theosophical proverb, “When the student is ready, the teacher will appear!”  Only you can come to that decision point.  If you are ready, so am I.

In the opinion of ex-Dallas Cowboys football coach Tom Landry who coached from 1960-1988, “A coach is someone who tells you what you don’t want to hear, who has you see what you don’t want to see, so you can be who you have always known you could be.”

Football legend, Vince Lombardi said it best, “Some people try to find things in this game that don’t exist, but football is only two things – blocking and tackling.”  It doesn’t sound very sexy, but it is what it is.  Likewise, Recruitment is only two things – marketing and recruiting.  It’s as simple as that.  Don’t try to over-think this thing.  It reminds me of the old saying that you shouldn’t try to put lipstick on a pig…it doesn’t work, and it annoys the pig!

Daily we have the ability to learn great lessons.  And one of the primary ones is to not deviate from your strengths.  There are many ways to be successful at what you do as long as you rely on your strengths!  No matter what fancy alternatives are presented to you to replace picking up the phone and speaking into it, the ‘classic’ direct marketing call wins every time.  The Classics are the classics for a reason.  They have worked in the past, are working in the present and will continue to work in the future.  Follow the classics to top production!  Choose one of the coaching plans below:

3-month, Platinum Plan

This is a 3-month commitment plan.  In this plan, I will put in place all of the tools that you will need to become a profitable recruiter.  My five major products (training manual, daily planner, QRG, forms and the ‘Classics’ audio series) are included in this selection.  We will have a meeting, up to one hour, once per week and I will be available to continually work with you and answer your questions on a weekly, basis.  Admission into the Illuminati Think Tank series is included, with access to select recordings.

1-month, Gold Plan

This is a month-to-month plan.  In this plan, I will be available to you for four hours to be parceled out as you choose during a 4-week period.  Admission into the Illuminati Think Tank series is included.

Every other week, Silver Plan

This is a month-to-month plan.  In this plan, I will be available to you for 2 separate meetings, up to one hour, to be parceled out every other week to be used within a 4-week period.  Admission into the Illuminati Think Tank series is included.

Hourly, Bronze Plan

This is an ‘a la carte’ hourly plan.  Call for details and availability.

Our new TBMG Training Program:

ENROLL NOW

Preface

Many of you continue to correspond with me about these monthly BLS analyses and have asked if it is OK to use them in your presentations.  The answer is, of course, yes!  That is why I spend the time to assemble this information.  I would encourage any of you who have that desire to weave any of the information I have printed below into your presentations.  I write these analyses for the benefit of our recruitment industry in general and for the members of my distribution list in particular.  So, use this info as you deem appropriate.

I also write these monthly BLS analyses to not only counterbalance the negative/incorrect press reporting of our general economic state but, more than that, to remind all of my recruitment readers that, at the level we work, there is no unemployment and so we must recruit to find the candidates our client companies so desperately need!

So, to my recruiter colleagues, get out there and do what your name implies…RECRUIT!  When your client companies have unique and difficult positions to fill, they need you.  When they are being picky, they need you.  When they are longing for more production from fewer employees, they need you.  Go fill those needs.  These should be the halcyon days in the recruitment arena!

Finally, always remember that we are not in an HR business, but in a ‘circumventing the time factor in the hiring sequence’ business—and adding value to our client companies.

Semi-Retirement May be One Strategy to Keep Older Workers: Express Employment Professionals

Daily News, January 27, 2023

As the workforce continues to age, companies are facing challenges in retaining their older employees as they are increasingly choosing to retire, with retiring employees anticipated to account for 28% of turnover in 2023, according to a new survey by Express Employment Professionals. The survey found that among those who retired from their company in the past 2 years, 79% were 60 years of age or older.

However, one strategy companies are using to address this issue is offering semi-retirement options to older employees, allowing employees to reduce their hours and have a flexible schedule.

The survey found that 30% of companies now offer semi-retirement options. Nearly 59% of hiring managers whose company offers semi-retirement say the number of employees choosing to semi-retire has remained the same over the past two years, while about 37% reported that the number of those semi-retiring has actually increased.

“As baby boomers continue to age and consider retirement, the labor shortage is only going to get worse,” Express Employment International CEO Bill Stoller said. “Semi-retirement is one solution to allow experienced workers time to train their successors, ensuring a seamless knowledge transfer and business continuity.”

Express Employment Professionals’ survey was conducted online by The Harris Poll between Dec. 1 and Dec. 15, 2022. It included responses from 1,002 adult US hiring decision-makers who are employed full-time or self-employed.

Employment Growth at Lowest Level since April 2021; Recession Concerns Still High: NABE

Daily News, January 23, 2023

Employment growth over the last three months was at its lowest reading since April 2021, according to the “Business Conditions Survey” released today by National Association for Business Economics. In addition, 64% of survey respondents said they feel the US is either already in a recession or has a more-than-even likelihood of entering a recession in the next 6 months.

“The results of the January 2023 NABE Business Conditions Survey indicate widespread concern about entering a recession this year,” said NABE President Julia Coronado, founder and president, MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC. “For the first time since 2020, more respondents expect falling rather than increased employment at their firms in the next 3 months.”

NABE’s survey found 25% of respondents said employment rose at their firms over the last three months while 10% said it fell — for a net rising index of 15. That’s down from 22 in the October survey and the lowest since the April 2021 survey.

Looking forward over the next 3 months, the net rising index on employment turned negative.

NABE’s report found that 12% of firms planned to hire in the next 3 months while 19% planned to reduce staff, resulting in an NRI of -7. It had been at a level of 8 in the October report and at 21 in the year-ago survey.

Still, 63% of respondents report rising wages over the past 3 months, unchanged from the October 2022 survey.

The current NABE survey also asked about labor shortages; however, 34% said their firm wasn’t facing a labor shortage. In addition, 14% said that while they have a labor shortage, it has already started to abate. And 28% said they expected labor shortages to abate in the second half of this year, though only 5% expected labor shortages to abate in the first half of this year.

Respondents also indicated recession expectations remain high, with more than half putting more than 50-50 odds that the US is already in a recession (3%) or will be entering a recession over the next 12 months (53%). In the October survey when 64% of respondents indicated that the US is either already in a recession or has a more-than-even likelihood of entering a recession in the next 12 months.

Respondents to the survey included 60 NABE members. NABE is an association of business economists.

Majority Admit to Lying on their Résumés, Survey Says

Daily News, January 20, 2013

More than a third of US job seekers, 35%, admitted to lying in some parts of the hiring process, according to a survey by ResumeBuilder.com. 41% of men say they lied in the hiring process, compared to 29% of women. Overall, candidates without a high school diploma are also more likely to lie than those with other levels of education.

Among those who admit to lying, most tend to lie on their résumés, according to the report. It found that 72% of Americans admitted to lying on their résumés. Educational credentials, years of experience, skills and abilities and length of previous positions were among the areas where candidates fibbed.

“In this tight labor market, many hiring managers are struggling with high employee turnover in a tight labor market,” said Stacie Haller, chief career advisor at ResumeBuilder. “However, this research proves that it’s even more critical for employers to carefully vet each candidate.”

When it comes to lying on job applications, 73% of respondents who lied said they were hired for the job, and nearly half never faced consequences for lying. Additionally, 41% of job seekers who lied have no regrets about lying, while 46% do and 14% are unsure.

The study was conducted online by survey platform Pollfish on Jan. 5 and includes responses from 1,250 Americans.

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 106,000 Jobs in January; Annual Pay was Up 7.3%

ROSELAND, N.J. – February 1, 2023

Private sector employment increased by 106,000 jobs in January and annual pay was up 7.3% year-over-year, according to the January ADP® National Employment Report TM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”).

The jobs report and pay insights use ADP’s fine-grained anonymized and aggregated payroll data of over 25,000,000 U.S. employees to provide a representative picture of the labor market.

The report details the current month’s total private employment change, and weekly job data from the previous month. ADP’s pay measure uniquely captures the earnings of a cohort of almost 10,000,000 employees over a 12-month period.

“In January, we saw the impact of weather-related disruptions on employment during our reference week,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Hiring was stronger during other weeks of the month, in line with the strength we saw late last year.”

JOBS REPORT

Private employers added 106,000 jobs in January.  Employment was soft during our Jan. 12 reference week as the U.S. was hit with extreme weather.  California was coping with record floods and back-to-back storms delivered ice and snow to the central and eastern U.S.

* Sum of components may not equal total, due to rounding.  The December total of jobs added was revised from 235,000 to 253,000.

Change in U.S. Private Employment:  106,000

Change by Industry Sector

Goods-producing: -3,000

Natural resources/mining -2,000

Construction -24,000

Manufacturing 23,000

Service-providing: 109,000

Trade/transportation/utilities -41,000

Information 5,000

Financial activities 30,000

Professional/business services 8,000

Education/health services 12,000

Leisure/hospitality 95,000

Other services

Change by U.S. Regions

Northeast: 42,000

New England 11,000

Middle Atlantic 31,000

Midwest: -40,000

East North Central -41,000

West North Central 1,000

South: 55,000

South Atlantic 36,000

East South Central 28,000

West South Central -9,000

West: 27,000

Mountain 31,000

Pacific -4,000

Change by Establishment Size

Small establishments: -75,000

1-19 employees -70,000

20-49 employees -5,000

Medium establishments: 64,000

50-249 employees 99,000

250-499 employees -35,000

Large establishments: 128,000

500+ employees 128,000

PAY INSIGHTS

Pay growth was flat in January

Pay growth for job stayers held at 7.3% for the second month, with most industries little changed.  One outlier was the information sector, where pay growth decelerated from 7% to 6.6%.

For job changers, pay growth accelerated to 15.4%.

Median Change in Annual Pay (ADP matched person sample)

Job-Stayers 7.3%

Job-Changers 15.4%

Median Change in Annual Pay for Job-Stayers by Industry Sector

Goods-producing:

Natural resources/mining 7.9%

Construction 7.1%

Manufacturing 7.2%

Service-providing:

Trade/transportation/utilities 7.5%

Information 6.6%

Financial activities 7.4%

Professional/business services 6.7%

Education/health services 7.2%

Leisure/hospitality 10.1%

Other services 6.8%

Median Change in Annual Pay for Job-Stayers by Firm Size

Small firms:

1-19 employees 5.5%

20-49 employees 7.0%

Medium firms:

50-249 employees 7.6%

250-499 employees 7.6%

Large firms:

500+ employees 7.7%

The February 2023 ADP National Employment Report will be released at 8:15 a.m. ET on March 8, 2023

Bottom-line:  To my audience of recruiters, always remember this:  Our ‘bread and butter’, especially on the contingency side of the house, has historically been, and continues to be, small and medium-sized client companies.  Along with the large companies, these companies need to be in included in your niche!

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary – December 2022

February 1, 2023     

The number of job openings increased to 11,000,000 on the last business day of December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 6,200,000 and 5,900,000, respectively. Within separations, quits (4,100,000) and layoffs and discharges (1,500,000) changed little. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, and by establishment size class.

Job Openings

On the last business day of December, the number and rate of job openings increased to 11,000,000 and 6.7%, respectively. In December, the largest increases in job openings were in accommodation and food services (+409,000), retail trade (+134,000), and construction (+82,000). The number of job openings decreased in information (-107,000).

Hires

In December, the number and rate of hires changed little at 6,200,000 and 4.0%, respectively. Hires changed little in all industries.

Separations

Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.

In December, the number of total separations changed little at 5,900,000, and the rate remained unchanged at 3.8%. The number of total separations decreased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-67,000).

In December, the number of quits was little changed at 4,100,000, and the rate was unchanged at 2.7%. Quits decreased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (69,000) but increased in other services (+65,000).

In December, the number and rate of layoffs and discharges changed little at 1,500,000 and 1.0%, respectively. Layoffs and discharges decreased in finance and insurance (43,000) but increased in federal government (+4,000).

The number of other separations was little changed in December at 336,000. Other separations increased in retail trade (+29,000) and in health care and social assistance (+19,000). Other separations decreased in state and local government, excluding education (-10,000) and in educational services (-6,000).

Establishment Size Class

In December, the job openings rate increased in establishments with 50 to 249 employees but decreased in establishments with 5,000 or more employees. The total separations rate increased in establishments with 10 to 49 employees but decreased in establishments with 50 to 249 employees and 250 to 999 employees.

The quits rate increased in establishments with 10 to 49 employees but decreased in establishments with 50 to 249 employees and 250 to 999 employees.

____________

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey estimates for January 2023 are scheduled to be released on Wednesday, March 8, 2023, at 10:00 a.m. (ET).

As we recruiters know that 11,000,000 number only represents 20% of the jobs currently available in the marketplace.  The other 80% of job openings are unpublished and are filled through networking or word of mouth or by using a RECRUITER.   So, those 11,000,000 published job openings now become a total of 55,000,000 published AND hidden job orders.

 

Online Labor Demand Falls in December

January 11, 2023

The Conference Board®−Lightcast® Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index fell in December to 157.1 (July 2018=100), down from 158.8 in November. The 1.1% decrease between November and December follows a 0.5% decrease between October and November. Overall, the Index is down 9.6% from a year ago.

The Conference Board®-Lightcast® Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index measures the change in advertised online job vacancies over time, reflecting monthly trends in employment opportunities across the US. The Help Wanted OnLine® Index is produced in collaboration with Lightcast (formerly Emsi Burning Glass), the global pioneer in real-time labor market data and analysis. This collaboration enhances the Help Wanted OnLine® program by providing additional insights into important labor market trends.

PROGRAM NOTES

Prior to 2020, The Conference Board constructed the HWOL Index based solely on online job ads over time. Using a methodology designed to reduce non-economic volatility contributed by online job sources, the HWOL Index served an effective measure of changes in labor demand over time.

Beginning January 2020, the HWOL Index was refined as an estimate of change in job openings (based on BLS JOLTS), using a series of econometric models which incorporate job ads with other macroeconomic indicators such as employment and aggregate hours worked. By adopting a modeled approach which combines other data sources with data on online job ads, the HWOL Index more accurately tracks important movements in the labor market.

The Conference Board®-Lightcast® Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index measures changes over time in advertised online job vacancies, reflecting monthly trends in employment opportunities across the US. The HWOL Data Series aggregates the total number of ads available by month from the HWOL universe of online job ads. Ads in the HWOL universe are collected in real-time from over 50,000 online job domains including traditional job boards, corporate boards, social media sites, and smaller job sites that serve niche markets and smaller geographic areas.

Like The Conference Board’s long-running Help Wanted Advertising Index of print ads (which was published for over 55 years and discontinued in July 2008), Help Wanted OnLine® measures help wanted advertising—i.e. labor demand. The HWOL Data Series began in May 2005 and was revised in December 2018. With the December 2018 revision, The Conference Board released the HWOL Index, improving upon the HWOL Data Series’ ability to assess local labor market trends by reducing volatility and non-economic noise and improving correlation with local labor market conditions.

In 2019, Lightcast (formerly Emsi Burning Glass) joined the Help Wanted OnLine® program as the new sole provider of online job ad data for HWOL. With this partnership, the HWOL Data Series has been revised historically to reflect a new universe and methodology of online job advertisements and therefore cannot be used in conjunction with the pre-revised HWOL Data Series. The HWOL Data Series begins in January 2015 and the HWOL Index begins in December 2005. HWOL Index values prior to 2020 are based on job ads collected by CEB, Inc.

Those using this data are urged to review the information on the database and methodology available on The Conference Board website and contact us with questions and comments.

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

About Lightcast

As the global leader in labor market analytics, Lightcast illuminates the future of work with data-driven talent strategies. Formerly Emsi Burning Glass, Lightcast finds purpose in sharing the insights that build communities, educators, and companies, and takes pride in knowing our work helps others find fulfillment, too. Headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts, and Moscow, Idaho, Lightcast is active in more than 30 countries and has offices in the United Kingdom, Italy, New Zealand, and India. Lightcast is backed by global private equity leader KKR.

The next release for January 2023 is Wednesday, February 15, 2023, at 10 AM

U-6 Update

In January 2023, the regular unemployment rate edged down to 3.4% and the broader U-6 measure edged up to 6.6%.

The above 6.6% is referred to as the U-6 unemployment rate (found in the monthly BLS Employment Situation Summary, Table A-15; Table A-12 in 2008 and before).  It counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts “marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons.”  Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week.  And the “marginally attached workers” include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work.  The age considered for this calculation is 16 years and over.

Here is a look at the January U-6 numbers for the previous 20 years:

January            2021                7.1%

January            2020                11.1%

January            2019                6.9%

January            2018                8.0%

January            2017                8.2%

January            2016                9.4%

January            2015                9.9%

January            2014                11.3%

January            2013                12.7%

January            2012                14.4%

January            2011                15.1%

January            2010                16.1%

January            2009                16.5%

January            2008                13.9%

January            2007                9.0%

January            2006                8.3%

January            2005                8.4%

January            2004                9.3%

January            2003                9.9%

January            2002                9.9%

The January 2023 BLS Analysis

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 517,000 in January and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.4%, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.  Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. Employment also increased in government, partially reflecting the return of workers from a strike.
 

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised up by 34,000, from +256,000 to +290,000, and the change for December was revised up by 37,000, from +223,000 to +260,000. With these revisions, employment gains in November and December combined were 71,000 higher than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors. The annual benchmark process also contributed to the November and December revisions.)

The unemployment rate is also published by the BLS.  That rate is found by dividing the number of unemployed by the total civilian labor force.  On February 3rd, 2023, the BLS published the most recent unemployment rate for January 2023 of 3.4% (actually, it is 3.434%, down .035% from 3.469% in December.

The unemployment rate was determined by dividing the unemployed of 5,694,000

(–down from the month before by 28,000—since January 2022, this number has decreased by 817,000) by the total civilian labor force of 165,832,000 (up by 866,000 from December 2022).  Since January 2022, our total civilian labor force has increased by 2,199,000 workers.

(The continuing ‘Strange BLS Math’ saga—after a detour in December 2016 when the BLS {for the first time in years} DECREASED the total Civilian Noninstitutional Population—this month the BLS increased this total to 265,962,000.  This is an increase of 1,118,000 from last month’s increase of 136,000.  In one year, this population has increased by 2,760,000.  For the last 3 years the Civilian Noninstitutional Population has increased each month—except in December 2016, December 2018, December 2019, & December 2020—by…)

Up from December 2022by1,118,000
Up from November 2022by136,000
Up from October 2022by173,000
Up from September 2022by179,000
Up from August 2022by172,000
Up from July 2022by172,000
Up from June 2022by177,000
Up from May 2022by156,000
Up from April 2022by120,000
Up from March 2022by115,000
Up from February 2022by120,000
Up from January 2022by122,000
Up from December 2021by1,066,000
Up from November 2021by107,000
Up from October 2021by121,000
Up from September 2021by142,000
Up from August 2021by155,000
Up from July 2021by142,000
Up from June 2021by131,000
Up from May 2021by128,000
Up from April 2021by107,000
Up from March 2021by100,000
Up from February 2021by85,000
Up from January 2021by67,000
Down from December 2020by379,000
Up from November 2020by145,000
Up from October 2020by160,000
Up from September 2020by183,000
Up from August 2020by184,000
Up from July 2020by185,000
Up from June 2020by169,000
Up from May 2020by157,000
Up from April 2020by151,000
Up from March 2020by138,000
Up from February 2020by130,000
Up from January 2020by126,000

Subtract the ‘civilian labor force’ from the ‘civilian noninstitutional population’) and you get 100,130,000 ‘Not in Labor Force’—up by 252,000 from last month’s 99,878,000.  In one year, this NILF population has increased by 560,000.  The government tells us that most of these NILFs got discouraged and just gave up looking for a job.  My monthly recurring question is: “If that is the case, how do they survive when they don’t earn any money because they don’t have a job?  Are they ALL relying on the government to support them??”

This month, our Employment Participation Rate—the population 16 years and older working or seeking work—rose to 62.4%.  This rate is at the historically low rate of 62.4% recorded in September 2015—and, before that, the rate recorded in October 1977—9 months into Jimmy Carter’s presidency—almost 40 years ago!

Final take on these numbers:  Fewer people looking for work will always bring down the unemployment rate.

Anyway, back to the point I am trying to make.  On the surface, these new unemployment

rates are scary, but let’s look a little deeper and consider some other numbers.

The unemployment rate includes all types of workers—construction workers, government workers, etc.  We recruiters, on the other hand, mainly place management, professional and related types of workers.  That unemployment rate in January was 2.1% (this rate was .4% higher than last month’s 1.7%).  Or you can look at it another way.  We usually place people who have college degrees.  That unemployment rate in January was2.0% (this rate was .1% higher than last month’s 1.9%).

Now stay with me a little longer.  This gets better.  It’s important to understand (and none of the pundits mention this) that the unemployment rate, for many reasons, will never be 0%, no matter how good the economy is.  Without boring you any more than I have already, let me add here that Milton Friedman (the renowned Nobel Prize-winning economist), is famous for the theory of the “natural rate of unemployment” (or the term he preferred, NAIRU, which is the acronym for Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment).  Basically, this theory states that full employment presupposes an ‘unavoidable and acceptable’ unemployment rate of somewhere between 4-6% with it.  Economists often settle on 5%, although the “New Normal Unemployment Rate” has been suggested to fall at 6.7%.

Nevertheless (if you will allow me to apply a ‘macro’ concept to a ‘micro’ issue), if this rate is applied to our main category of Management, Professional and Related types of potential recruits, and/or our other main category of College-Degreed potential recruits, because of the COVID-19 shutdown, we are not that far above the 4-6% threshold for full employment…and that will change as soon as we all return to work!

THE IMPORTANCE OF GDP

“The economic goal of any nation, as of any individual, is to get the greatest results with the least effort.  The whole economic progress of mankind has consisted in getting more production with the same labor…Translated into national terms, this first principle means that our real objective is to maximize production.  In doing this, full employment—that is, the absence of involuntary idleness—becomes a necessary by-product.  But production is the end, employment merely the means.  We cannot continuously have the fullest production without full employment.  But we can very easily have full employment without full production.”

–Economics in One Lesson, by Henry Hazlitt, Chapter X, “The Fetish of Full Employment”

On January 26th, 2023, the real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.9% in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2%.

The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency.  The “second” estimate for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on February 23, 2023.

The increase in real GDP reflected increases in private inventory investment, consumer spending, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

The increase in private inventory investment was led by manufacturing (mainly petroleum and coal products as well as chemicals) as well as mining, utilities, and construction industries (led by utilities). The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both services and goods. Within services, the increase was led by health care, housing and utilities, and “other” services (notably, personal care services). Within goods, the leading contributor was motor vehicles and parts. Within federal government spending, the increase was led by nondefense spending. The increase in state and local government spending primarily reflected an increase in compensation of state and local government employees. Within nonresidential fixed investment, an increase in intellectual property products was partly offset by a decrease in equipment.

Within residential fixed investment, the leading contributors to the decrease were new single-family construction as well as brokers’ commissions. Within exports, a decrease in goods (led by nondurable goods excluding petroleum) was partly offset by an increase in services (led by travel as well as transport). Within imports, the decrease primarily reflected a decrease in goods (led by durable consumer goods).

Compared to the third quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a downturn in exports and decelerations in nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by an upturn in private inventory investment, an acceleration in federal government spending, and a smaller decrease in residential fixed investment. Imports decreased less in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter.

GDP for 2022

Real GDP increased 2.1% in 2022 (from the 2021 annual level to the 2022 annual level), compared with an increase of 5.9 percent in 2021 (table 1). The increase in real GDP in 2022 primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and federal government spending. Imports increased.

The increase in consumer spending reflected an increase in services that was partly offset by a decrease in goods. Within services, the increase was led by “other” services (mainly international travel), food services and accommodations, and health care. The decrease in goods primarily reflected decreases in food and beverages as well as motor vehicles and parts that were partly offset by increases in recreational goods and vehicles and “other” nondurable goods (mainly pharmaceuticals). The increase in exports reflected increases in both goods and services. The increase in private inventory investment primarily reflected increases in manufacturing, wholesale trade, and retail trade industries. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment reflected increases in intellectual property products (led by software) and in equipment (led by information processing equipment) that were partly offset by a decrease in structures (led by commercial and health care as well as power and communication structures).

The decrease in residential fixed investment mainly reflected a decrease in new single-family construction as well as brokers’ commissions. The decrease in federal government spending reflected decreases in both defense and nondefense spending. Within imports, both goods (led by nonautomotive capital goods) and services (led by travel) increased.

Measured from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2022, real GDP increased 1.0% during the period, compared with an increase of 5.7% from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021.

*          *          *

Next release, February 23, 2023, at 8:30 a.m. EST
Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate)
Fourth Quarter and Year 2022

IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR UNEMPLOYMENT EVER TO BE ZERO

‘Unemployment’ is an emotional ‘trigger’ word…a ‘third rail’, if you will.  It conjures up negative thoughts.  But it is important to realize that, while we want everyone who wants a job to have the opportunity to work, unemployment can never be zero and, in fact, can be disruptive to an economy if it gets too close to zero.  Very low unemployment can actually hurt the economy by creating an upward pressure on wages which invariably leads to higher production costs and prices.  This can lead to inflation.  The lowest the unemployment rate has been in the US was 2.5%.  That was in May and June 1953 when the economy overheated due to the Korean War.  When this bubble burst, it kicked off the Recession of 1953.  A healthy economy will always include some percentage of unemployment.

There are five main sources of unemployment:

1.  Cyclical (or demand-deficient) unemployment – This type of unemployment fluctuates with the business cycle.  It rises during a recession and falls during the subsequent recovery.  Workers who are most affected by this type of unemployment are laid off during a recession when production volumes fall, and companies use lay-offs as the easiest way to reduce costs.  These workers are usually rehired, some months later, when the economy improves.

2.  Frictional unemployment – This comes from the normal turnover in the labor force.  This is where new workers are entering the workforce and older workers are retiring and leaving vacancies to be filled by the new workers or those re-entering the workforce.  This category includes workers who are between jobs.

3.  Structural unemployment – This happens when the skills possessed by the unemployed worker don’t match the requirements of the opening—whether those be in characteristics and skills or in location.  This can come from new technology or foreign competition (e.g., foreign outsourcing).  This type of unemployment usually lasts longer than frictional unemployment because retraining, and sometimes relocation, is involved.  Occasionally jobs in this category can just disappear overseas.

4.  Seasonal unemployment – This happens when the workforce is affected by the climate or time of year.  Construction workers and agricultural workers aren’t needed as much during the winter season because of the inclement weather.  On the other hand, retail workers experience an increase in hiring shortly before, and during, the holiday season, but can be laid off shortly thereafter.

5.  Surplus unemployment – This is caused by minimum wage laws and unions.  When wages are set at a higher level, unemployment can often result.  Why?  To keep within the same payroll budget, the company must let go of some workers to pay the remaining workers a higher salary.

Other factors influencing the unemployment rate:

1.  Length of unemployment – Some studies indicate that an important factor influencing a worker’s decision to accept a new job is directly related to the length of the unemployment benefit they are receiving.

Currently, workers in most states are eligible for up to 26 weeks of benefits from the regular state-funded unemployment compensation program, although seven states provide fewer weeks, and one provides more.  Extended Benefits (EB) have triggered on in 14 states plus the District of Columbia and the Virgin Islands.  Additional weeks of federal benefits are also available through September 6, 2021.

Studies suggest that additional weeks of benefits reduce the incentive of the unemployed to seek and accept less-desirable jobs.

2.  Changes in GDP – Since hiring workers takes time, the improvement in the unemployment rate usually lags the improvement in the GDP.

WHERE RECRUITERS PLACE

Now back to the issue at hand, namely the recruiting, and placing, of professionals and those with college degrees.

If you look at the past 23 years of unemployment in the January “management, professional and related” types of worker category, you will find the following rates:

January            2022               2.3%

January            2021              3.7%

January            2020               2.2%

January            2019               2.5%

January            2018               2.2%

January            2017               2.3%

January            2016               2.3%

January            2015               2.9%

January            2014               3.1%

January            2013               3.9%

January            2012               4.3%

January            2011               4.7%

January            2010               5.0%

January            2009               4.1%

January            2008               2.2%

January            2007               2.0%

January            2006               2.1%

January            2005               2.4%

January            2004               3.0%

January            2003               3.2%

January            2002               3.1%

January            2001               1.8%

January            2000               1.8%

Here are the rates, during those same time periods, for “college-degreed” workers:

January            2022               2.3%

January            2021               4.0%

January            2020               2.0%

January            2019               2.4%

January            2018               2.2%

January            2017               2.5%

January            2016               2.5%

January            2015               2.8%

January            2014               3.3%

January            2013               3.8%

January            2012               4.2%

January            2011               4.2%

January            2010               4.8%

January            2009               3.8%

January            2008               2.1%

January            2007               2.1%

January            2006               2.1%

January            2005               2.4%

January            2004               2.9%

January            2003               3.0%

January            2002               2.9%

January            2001               1.6%

January            2000               1.8%

The January 2023 rates for these two categories, 2.1% and 2.0%, respectively, are pretty low.  But regardless, these unemployment numbers usually include a good number of job hoppers, job shoppers and rejects.  We, on the other hand, are engaged by our client companies to find those candidates who are happy, well-appreciated, making good money and currently working and we entice them to move for even better opportunities—especially where new technologies are expanding.  This will never change.  And that is why, no matter the overall unemployment rate, we still need to MARKET to find the best possible job orders to work and we still need to RECRUIT to find the best possible candidates for those Job Orders.

Below are the numbers for the over 25-year old’s:

Less than H.S. diploma – Unemployment Rate

1/082/083/084/085/086/087/088/089/0810/0811/0812/08
7.7%7.4%8.2%7.9%8.4%8.9%8.6%9.7%9.8%10.4%10.6%10.9%
1/092/093/094/095/096/097/098/099/0910/0911/0912/09
12.0%12.6%13.3%14.8%15.5%15.5%15.4%15.6%15.0%15.5%15.0%15.3%
1/102/103/104/105/106/107/108/109/1010/1011/1012/10
15.2%15.6%14.5%14.7%15.0%14.1%13.8%14.0%15.4%15.3%15.7%15.3%
1/112/113/114/115/116/117/118/119/1110/1111/1112/11
14.2%13.9%13.7%14.6%14.7%14.3%15.0%14.3%14.0%13.8%13.2%13.8%
1/122/123/124/125/126/127/128/129/1210/1211/1212/12
13.1%12.9%12.6%12.5%13.0%12.6%12.7%12.0%11.3%12.2%12.2%11.7%
1/132/133/134/135/136/137/138/139/1310/1311/1312/13
12.0%11.2%11.1%11.6%11.1%10.7%11.0%11.3%10.3%10.9%10.8%9.8%
1/142/143/144/145/146/147/148/149/1410/1411/1412/14
9.6%9.8%9.6%8.9%9.1%9.1%9.6%9.1%8.4%7.9%8.5%8.8%
1/152/153/154/155/156/157/158/159/1510/1511/1512/15
8.5%8.4%8.6%8.6%8.6%8.2%8.3%7.7%7.7%7.3%6.8%6.7%
1/162/163/164/165/166/167/168/169/1610/1611/1612/16
7.4%7.3%7.4%7.5%7.1%7.5%6.3%7.2%8.5%7.3%7.9%7.9%
1/172/173/174/175/176/177/178/179/1710/1711/1712/17
7.3%7.9%6.8%6.5%6.1%6.4%6.9%6.0%6.5%5.7%5.2%6.3%
1/182/183/184/185/186/187/188/189/1810/1811/1812/18
5.4%5.7%5.5%5.9%5.4%5.5%5.1%5.7%5.5%6.0%5.6%5.8%
1/192/193/194/195/196/197/198/199/1910/1911/1912/19
5.7%5.3%5.9%5.4%5.4%5.3%5.1%5.4%4.8%5.6%5.3%5.2%
1/202/203/204/205/206/207/208/209/2010/2011/2012/20
5.5%5.7%6.8%21.2%19.9%16.6%15.4%12.6%10.7%9.9%9.2%9.8%
1/212/213/214/215/216/217/218/219/2110/2111/2112/21
9.1%10.1%8.2%9.3%9.1%10.2%9.5%7.8%7.9%7.4%5.7%5.2%
1/222/223/224/225/226/227/228/229/2210/2211/2212/22
6.3%4.3%5.2%5.4%5.2%5.8%5.9%6.2%5.6%6.3%4.4%5.0%
1/232/233/234/235/236/237/238/239/2310/2311/2312/23
4.5%         

H.S. Grad; no college – Unemployment Rate

1/082/083/084/085/086/087/088/089/0810/0811/0812/08
4.6%4.7%5.1%5.0%5.2%5.2%5.3%5.8%6.3%6.5%6.9%7.7%
1/092/093/094/095/096/097/098/099/0910/0911/0912/09
8.1%8.3%9.0%9.3%10.0%9.8%9.4%9.7%10.8%11.2%10.4%10.5%
1/102/103/104/105/106/107/108/109/1010/1011/1012/10
10.1%10.5%10.8%10.6%10.9%10.8%10.1%10.3%10.0%10.1%10.0%9.8%
1/112/113/114/115/116/117/118/119/1110/1111/1112/11
9.4%9.5%9.5%9.7%9.5%10.0%9.3%9.6%9.7%9.6%8.8%8.7%
1/122/123/124/125/126/127/128/129/1210/1211/1212/12
8.4%8.3%8.0%7.9%8.1%8.4%8.7%8.8%8.7%8.4%8.1%8.0%
1/132/133/134/135/136/137/138/139/1310/1311/1312/13
8.1%7.9%7.6%7.4%7.4%7.6%7.6%7.6%7.6%7.3%7.3%7.1%
1/142/143/144/145/146/147/148/149/1410/1411/1412/14
6.5%6.4%6.3%6.3%6.5%5.8%6.1%6.2%5.3%5.7%5.6%5.3%
1/152/153/154/155/156/157/158/159/1510/1511/1512/15
5.4%5.4%5.3%5.4%5.8%5.4%5.5%5.5%5.3%5.3%5.4%5.6%
1/162/163/164/165/166/167/168/169/1610/1611/1612/16
5.3%5.3%5.4%5.4%5.1%5.0%5.0%5.1%5.2%5.5%4.9%5.1%
1/172/173/174/175/176/177/178/179/1710/1711/1712/17
5.2%5.0%4.9%4.6%4.7%4.6%4.5%5.1%4.3%4.3%4.3%4.2%
1/182/183/184/185/186/187/188/189/1810/1811/1812/18
4.5%4.4%4.3%4.3%3.9%4.2%4.0%3.9%3.7%4.0%3.5%3.8%
1/192/193/194/195/196/197/198/199/1910/1911/1912/19
3.8%3.8%3.7%3.5%3.5%3.9%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.7%3.7%3.7%
1/202/203/204/205/206/207/208/209/2010/2011/2012/20
3.8%3.6%4.4%17.3%15.3%12.1%10.8%9.8%9.0%8.1%7.8%7.8%
1/212/213/214/215/216/217/218/219/2110/2111/2112/21
7.1%7.2%6.7%6.9%6.8%7.0%6.3%6.0%5.8%5.4%5.2%4.6%
1/222/223/224/225/226/227/228/229/2210/2211/2212/22
4.6%4.5%4.0%3.8%3.8%3.6%3.6%4.2%3.7%3.9%3.9%3.6%
1/232/233/234/235/236/237/238/239/2310/2311/2312/23
3.7%         

Some College; or AA/AS – Unemployment Rate

1/082/083/084/085/086/087/088/089/0810/0811/0812/08
3.7%3.8%3.9%4.0%4.3%4.4%4.6%5.0%5.1%5.3%5.5%5.6%
1/092/093/094/095/096/097/098/099/0910/0911/0912/09
6.2%7.0%7.2%7.4%7.7%8.0%7.9%8.2%8.5%9.0%9.0%9.0%
1/102/103/104/105/106/107/108/109/1010/1011/1012/10
8.5%8.0%8.2%8.3%8.3%8.2%8.3%8.7%9.1%8.5%8.7%8.1%
1/112/113/114/115/116/117/118/119/1110/1111/1112/11
8.0%7.8%7.4%7.5%8.0%8.4%8.3%8.2%8.4%8.3%7.6%7.7%
1/122/123/124/125/126/127/128/129/1210/1211/1212/12
7.2%7.3%7.5%7.6%7.9%7.5%7.1%6.6%6.5%6.9%6.6%6.9%
1/132/133/134/135/136/137/138/139/1310/1311/1312/13
7.0%6.7%6.4%6.4%6.5%6.4%6.0%6.1%6.0%6.3%6.4%6.1%
1/142/143/144/145/146/147/148/149/1410/1411/1412/14
6.0%6.2%6.1%5.7%5.5%5.0%5.3%5.4%5.4%4.8%4.9%5.0%
1/152/153/154/155/156/157/158/159/1510/1511/1512/15
5.2%5.1%4.8%4.7%4.4%4.2%4.4%4.4%4.3%4.3%4.4%4.1%
1/162/163/164/165/166/167/168/169/1610/1611/1612/16
4.2%4.2%4.1%4.1%3.9%4.2%4.3%4.3%4.2%4.2%3.9%3.8%
1/172/173/174/175/176/177/178/179/1710/1711/1712/17
3.8%4.0%3.7%3.7%4.0%3.8%3.7%3.8%3.6%3.7%3.6%3.6%
1/182/183/184/185/186/187/188/189/1810/1811/1812/18
3.4%3.5%3.6%3.5%3.2%3.3%3.2%3.5%3.2%3.0%3.1%3.3%
1/192/193/194/195/196/197/198/199/1910/1911/1912/19
3.4%3.2%3.4%3.1%2.8%3.0%3.2%3.1%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.7%
1/202/203/204/205/206/207/208/209/2010/2011/2012/20
2.8%3.0%3.7%15.0%13.3%10.9%10.0%8.0%8.1%6.6%6.3%6.3%
1/212/213/214/215/216/217/218/219/2110/2111/2112/21
6.2%5.9%5.9%5.8%5.9%5.8%5.0%5.1%4.5%4.4%3,7%3.6%
1/222/223/234/225/226/227/228/229/2210/2211/2212/22
3.6%3.8%3.0%3.1%3.4%3.1%2.8%2.9%2.9%3.0%3.2%2.9%
1/232/233/234/235/236/237/238/239/2310/2311/2312/23
2.9%         

BS/BS + – Unemployment Rate

1/082/083/084/085/086/087/088/089/0810/0811/0812/08
2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.3%2.4%2.5%2.7%2.6%3.1%3.2%3.7%
1/092/093/094/095/096/097/098/099/0910/0911/0912/09
3.9%4.1%4.3%4.4%4.8%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.9%4.7%4.9%5.0%
1/102/103/104/105/106/107/108/109/1010/1011/1012/10
4.8%5.0%4.9%4.9%4.7%4.4%4.5%4.6%4.4%4.7%5.1%4.8%
1/112/113/114/115/116/117/118/119/1110/1111/1112/11
4.2%4.3%4.4%4.5%4.5%4.4%4.3%4.3%4.2%4.4%4.4%4.1%
1/122/123/124/125/126/127/128/129/1210/1211/1212/12
4.2%4.2%4.2%4.0%3.9%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%3.8%3.8%3.9%
1/132/133/134/135/136/137/138/139/1310/1311/1312/13
3.8%3.8%3.8%3.9%3.8%3.9%3.8%3.5%3.7%3.8%3.4%3.3%
1/142/143/144/145/146/147/148/149/1410/1411/1412/14
3.3%3.4%3.4%3.3%3.2%3.3%3.1%3.2%2.9%3.1%3.2%2.8%
1/152/153/154/155/156/157/158/159/1510/1511/1512/15
2.8%2.7%2.5%2.7%2.7%2.5%2.6%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%
1/162/163/164/165/166/167/168/169/1610/1611/1612/16
2.5%2.5%2.6%2.4%2.4%2.5%2.5%2.7%2.5%2.6%2.3%2.5%
1/172/173/174/175/176/177/178/179/1710/1711/1712/17
2.5%2.4%2.5%2.4%2.3%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.3%2.0%2.1%2.1%
1/182/183/184/185/186/187/188/189/1810/1811/1812/18
2.1%2.3%2.2%2.1%2.0%2.3%2.2%2.1%2.0%2.0%2.2%2.1%
1/192/193/194/195/196/197/198/199/1910/1911/1912/19
2.4%2.2%2.0%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.2%2.1%2.0%2.1%2.0%1.9%
1/202/203/204/205/206/207/208/209/2010/2011/2012/20
2.0%1.9%2.5%8.4%7.4%6.9%6.7%5.3%4.7%4.2%4.2%3.8%
1/212/213/214/215/216/217/218/219/2110/2111/2112/21
4.0%3.8%3.7%3.5%3.2%3.5%3.1%2.8%2.5%2.4%2.3%2.1%
1/222/223/224/225/226/227/228/229/2210/2211/2212/22
2.3%2.2%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.1%2.0%1.9%1.8%1.9%2.0%1.9%
1/232/233/234/235/236/237/238/239/2310/2311/2312/23
2.0%         

Management, Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

1/082/083/084/085/086/087/088/089/0810/0811/0812/08
2.2%2.2%2.1%2.0%2.6%2.7%2.9%3.3%2.8%3.0%3.2%3.3%
1/092/093/094/095/096/097/098/099/0910/0911/0912/09
4.1%3.9%4.2%4.0%4.6%5.0%5.5%5.4%5.2%4.7%4.6%4.6%
1/102/103/104/105/106/107/108/109/1010/1011/1012/10
5.0%4.8%4.7%4.5%4.5%4.9%5.0%5.1%4.4%4.5%4.7%4.6%
1/112/113/114/115/116/117/118/119/1110/1111/1112/11
4.7%4.4%4.3%4.0%4.4%4.7%5.0%4.9%4.4%4.4%4.2%4.2%
1/122/123/124/125/126/127/128/129/1210/1211/1212/12
4.3%4.2%4.2%3.7%4.0%4.4%4.8%4.5%3.9%3.8%3.6%3.9%
1/132/133/134/135/136/137/138/139/1310/1311/1312/13
3.9%3.8%3.6%3.5%3.5%4.2%4.1%3.8%3.5%3.4%3.1%2.9%
1/142/143/144/145/146/147/148/149/1410/1411/1412/14
3.1%3.2%3.3%2.9%3.1%3.5%3.5%3.4%2.8%2.7%2.8%2.7%
1/152/153/154/155/156/157/158/159/1510/1511/1512/15
2.9%2.7%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.9%3.1%2.9%2.4%2.2%2.1%2.0%
1/162/163/164/165/166/167/168/169/1610/1611/1612/16
2.3%2.4%2.4%2.1%2.1%2.8%3.0%3.1%2.7%2.5%2.3%2.2%
1/172/173/174/175/176/177/178/179/1710/1711/1712/17
2.3%2.1%2.0%2.0%1.9%2.3%2.7%2.8%2.3%2.1%2.0%2.0%
1/182/183/184/185/186/187/188/189/1810/1811/1812/18
2.2%2.0%2.0%1.8%1.7%2.5%2.4%2.5%2.0%1.9%2.1%2.1%
1/192/193/194/195/196/197/198/199/1910/1911/1912/19
2.5%2.0%2.0%1.6%1.7%2.4%2.4%2.3%1.9%1.8%1.8%1.8%
1/202/203/204/205/206/207/208/209/2010/2011/2012/20
2.2%1.8%2.5%7.7%6.6%6.5%6.6%5.5%4.5%3.7%3.7%3.4%
1/212/213/214/215/216/217/218/219/2110/2111/2112/21
3.7%3.2%3.1%3.0%2.8%3.5%3.3%3.2%2.4%2.2%1.9%1.7%
1/222/223/224/225/226/227/228/229/2210/2211/2212/22
2.3%2.2%1.5%1.6%1.6%2.2%2.4%2.4%1.8%2.0%1.8%1.7%
1/232/233/234/235/236/237/238/239/2310/2311/2312/23
2.1%         

Or employed… (,000)

1/082/083/084/085/086/087/088/089/0810/0811/0812/08
52,16552,49852,68152,81952,54452,73552,65552,62653,10453,48553,27452,548
1/092/093/094/095/096/097/098/099/0910/0911/0912/09
52,35852,19652,34552,59752,25651,77651,81051,72452,18652,98152,26352,131
1/102/103/104/105/106/107/108/109/1010/1011/1012/10
52,15952,32452,16352,35551,83951,41450,97450,87951,75751,81852,26351,704
1/112/113/114/115/116/117/118/119/1110/1111/1112/11
51,86652,55753,24353,21652,77852,12051,66251,99752,66552,86452,78752,808
1/122/123/124/125/126/127/128/129/1210/1211/1212/12
53,15253,20853,77154,05554,15653,84653,16553,69654,65555,22354,95154,635
1/132/133/134/135/136/137/138/139/1310/1311/1312/13
54,21454,56354,72154,76754,74054,32354,06454,51555,01355,15555,58354,880
1/142/143/144/145/146/147/148/149/1410/1411/1412/14
55,09655,50156,03655,89656,20255,71455,38155,64656,36556,75957,11056,888
1/152/153/154/155/156/157/158/159/1510/1511/1512/15
57,36757,59657,80557,95358,15557,71057,39257,28858,10558,45658,66759,030
1/162/163/164/165/166/167/168/169/1610/1611/1612/16
59,01459,58360,08059,69059,61359,18158,43458,52659,59959,76659,70760,069
1/172/173/174/175/176/177/178/179/1710/1711/1712/17
59,92161,06461,15661,31761,17460,70559,92359,55960,99061,06261,81862,121
1/182/183/184/185/186/187/188/189/1810/1811/1812/18
62,12362,90863,06762,56162,36061,34961,43361,59362,18162,92963,08463,642
1/192/193/194/195/196/197/198/199/1910/1911/1912/19
63,81864,28164,29963,56063,59463,41863,39463,67964,34364,99765,54865,682
1/202/203/204/205/206/207/208/209/2010/2011/2012/20
65,53366,09165,88161,15262,33063,29062,45163,09562,75963,27763,38764,007
1/212/213/214/215/216/217/218/219/2110/2111/2112/21
63,88664,47164,50364,26464,26864,31664,17964,12265,16365,33566,06066,366
1/222/223/224/225/226/227/228/229/2210/2211/2212/22
66,74067,75467,82367,31967,65267,22467,87468,37769,05668,91869.15669,297
1/232/233/234/235/236/237/238/239/2310/2311/2312/23
69,249         

And unemployed… (,000)

1/082/083/084/085/086/087/088/089/0810/0811/0812/08
1,1641,1591,1211,0881,4071,4781,5851,7791,5391,6471,7861,802
1/092/093/094/095/096/097/098/099/0910/0911/0912/09
2,2382,1372,2922,1642,3732,7203,0342,9252,8592,5932,5302,509
1/102/103/104/105/106/107/108/109/1010/1011/1012/10
2,7622,6372,6002,4642,4502,6442,6872,7622,3812,4172,5252,468
1/112/113/114/115/116/117/118/119/1110/1111/1112/11
2,5572,4352,3812,1962,4192,5982,7422,6712,4502,4102,3362,303
1/122/123/124/125/126/127/128/129/1210/1211/1212/12
2,4102,3362,3302,0622,2752,4722,6662,5562,2452,1702,0772,221
1/132/133/134/135/136/137/138/139/1310/1311/1312/13
2,2112,1642,0201,9801,9902,3582,2862,1301,9781,9301,7491,637
1/142/143/144/145/146/147/148/149/1410/1411/1412/14
1,7841,8451,8901,6421,7952,0012,0111,9301,6171,5821,6561,568
1/152/153/154/155/156/157/158/159/1510/1511/1512/15
1,7411,6011,3981,4351,4601,7141,8071,6861,4141,3121,2761,208
1/162/163/164/165/166/167/168/169/1610/1611/1612/16
1,4041,4561,4771,2511,3051,7121,7821,8691,6521,5061,3821,361
1/172/173/174/175/176/177/178/179/1710/1711/1712/17
1,4251,3131,2651,2541,2081,4401,6561,7311,4631,2851,2661,290
1/182/183/184/185/186/187/188/189/1810/1811/1812/18
1,3741,3011,3101,1341,0831,5751,5391,5911,2991,2461,3301,368
1/192/193/194/195/196/197/198/199/1910/1911/1912/19
1,6071,3171,2891,0401,0861,5401,5911,4761,2351,1611,2081,171
1/202/203/204/205/206/207/208/209/2010/2011/2012/20
1,4541,2071,6635,0794,4324,3904,4003,6802,9462,4482,4152,235
1/212/213/214/215/216/217/218/219/2110/2111/2112/21
2,4332,1582,0632,0141,8792,3032,2032,1231,5801,4531,3081,146
1/222/223/224/225/226/227/228/229/2210/2211/2212/22
1,5831,4901,0531,0881,0981,5201,6501,6471,2911,3981,2471,198
1/232/233/234/235/236/237/238/239/2310/2311/2312/23
1,460         

For a total Management, Professional & Related workforce of…(,000)

1/082/083/084/085/086/087/088/089/0810/0811/0812/08
53,32953,65753,80253,90753,95154,21354,24054,40554,64355,13255,06054,350
1/092/093/094/095/096/097/098/099/0910/0911/0912/09
54,59654,33354,63754,76154,62954,49654,84454,64955,04555,57454,79354,640
1/102/103/104/105/106/107/108/109/1010/1011/1012/10
54,92154,96154,76354,81954,28954,05853,66153,64154,13854,23554,78854,172
1/112/113/114/115/116/117/118/119/1110/1111/1112/11
54,42354,99255,62455,41255,19754,71854,40454,66855,11555,27455,12355,111
1/122/123/124/125/126/127/128/129/1210/1211/1212/12
55,56255,54456,10156,11756,43156,31855,83156,25256,90057,39357,02856,856
1/132/133/134/135/136/137/138/139/1310/1311/1312/13
56,42556,72756,74156,74756,73056,68156,35056,64556,99157,08557,33256,517
1/142/143/144/145/146/147/148/149/1410/1411/1412/14
56,88057,34657,92657,53857,99757,71557,39257,57657,98258,34158,76658,456
1/152/153/154/155/156/157/158/159/1510/1511/1512/15
59,10859,19759,20359,38859,61559,42459,19958,97459,51959,76859,94360,238
1/162/163/164/165/166/167/168/169/1610/1611/1612/16
60,41861,03961,55760,94160,91860,89360,21660,39561,25161,27261,08961,430
1/172/173/174/175/176/177/178/179/1710/1711/1712/17
61,34662,37762,42162,57162,38262,14561,57961,29062,45362,34763,08463,411
1/182/183/184/185/186/187/188/189/1810/1811/1812/18
63,49764,20964,37763,69563,44362,92462,97263,18463,48064,17564,41465,010
1/192/193/194/195/196/197/198/199/1910/1911/1912/19
65,42565,59865,58864,60064,68064,95864,98565,15565,57866,15866,75666,853
1/202/203/204/205/206/207/208/209/2010/2011/2012/20
66,98767,29867,54466,23166,76267,68066,85166,77565,70565,67565,80266,242
1/212/213/214/215/216/217/218/219/2110/2111/2112/21
66,31966,62966,56666,27866,14766,61966,38266,24566,74366,78867,36867,512
1/222/223/224/225/226/227/228/229/2210/2211/2212/22
68,32369,24468,87668,40768,75068,74469,52470,02470,34770,31670.40370,495
1/232/233/234/235/236/237/238/239/2310/2311/2312/23
70,709         

Management, Business and Financial Operations – Unemployment Rate

1/082/083/084/085/086/087/088/089/0810/0811/0812/08
2.3%2.3%2.2%2.1%2.7%2.5%2.6%2.8%2.8%3.0%3.6%3.9%
1/092/093/094/095/096/097/098/099/0910/0911/0912/09
4.6%4.5%4.5%4.4%4.6%4.8%4.9%5.0%5.2%5.4%5.4%5.2%
1/102/103/104/105/106/107/108/109/1010/1011/1012/10
5.2%5.1%5.4%5.1%4.9%4.8%4.7%4.9%4.3%5.0%5.5%5.7%
1/112/113/114/115/116/117/118/119/1110/1111/1112/11
5.3%4.9%4.8%4.6%4.9%4.6%4.6%4.6%4.6%4.7%4.6%4.4%
1/122/123/124/125/126/127/128/129/1210/1211/1212/12
4.5%4.4%4.4%4.0%4.1%3.8%3.8%3.7%3.5%3.6%3.8%4.1%
1/132/133/134/135/136/137/138/139/1310/1311/1312/13
4.0%3.9%3.5%3.5%3.8%3.5%3.1%3.4%3.3%3.7%3.2%3.1%
1/142/143/144/145/146/147/148/149/1410/1411/1412/14
3.4%3.6%3.5%3.2%3.3%2.8%2.7%2.6%2.4%2.7%2.7%2.5%
1/152/153/154/155/156/157/158/159/1510/1511/1512/15
3.0%2.8%2.6%2.6%2.9%2.4%2.3%2.2%2.4%2.2%2.1%1.9%
1/162/163/164/165/166/167/168/169/1610/1611/1612/16
2.3%2.6%2.5%2.4%2.4%2.5%2.4%2.5%2.8%2.5%2.3%2.4%
1/172/173/174/175/176/177/178/179/1710/1711/1712/17
2.5%2.4%2.4%2.2%1.8%1.9%1.9%2.4%2.5%1.9%1.9%2.0%
1/182/183/184/185/186/187/188/189/1810/1811/1812/18
2.0%2.0%2.0%1.8%1.7%2.1%1.9%2.0%2.1%2.0%2.1%2.2%
1/192/193/194/195/196/197/198/199/1910/1911/1912/19
2.5%2.1%2.0%1.4%1.5%1.9%1.8%1.9%1.6%1.7%1.6%1.9%
1/202/203/204/205/206/207/208/209/2010/2011/2012/20
2.3%1.8%2.2%6.2%5.1%4.8%5.1%4.7%4.8%4.3%3.9%3.6%
1/212/213/214/215/216/217/218/219/2110/2111/2112/21
3.8%3.5%3.4%3.1%2.9%3.0%2.6%2.9%2.3%2.3%2.2%1.8%
1/222/223/224/225/226/227/228/229/2210/2211/2212/22
2.1%2.1%1.5%1.6%1.4%1.6%1.5%1.7%1.8%2.1%1.9%1.8%
1/232/233/234/235/236/237/238/239/2310/2311/2312/23
2.0%         

Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

1/082/083/084/085/086/087/088/089/0810/0811/0812/08
2.1%2.1%2.0%2.0%2.5%2.9%3.2%3.6%2.8%3.0%3.0%2.9%
1/102/103/104/105/106/107/108/109/1010/1011/1012/10
4.9%4.6%4.3%4.1%4.3%5.0%5.2%5.3%4.4%4.1%4.1%3.8%
1/112/113/114/115/116/117/118/119/1110/1111/1112/11
4.3%4.1%3.9%3.5%4.0%4.9%5.3%5.1%4.4%4.1%4.0%4.0%
1/122/123/124/125/126/127/128/129/1210/1211/1212/12
4.2%4.1%4.0%3.5%4.0%4.8%5.5%5.2%4.3%3.9%3.5%3.8%
1/132/133/134/135/136/137/138/139/1310/1311/1312/13
3.8%3.8%3.6%3.4%3.3%4.6%4.7%4.0%3.6%3.1%2.9%2.7%
1/142/143/144/145/146/147/148/149/1410/1411/1412/14
2.9%3.0%3.1%2.6%2.9%4.0%4.1%3.9%3.1%2.7%2.9%2.8%
1/152/153/154/155/156/157/158/159/1510/1511/1512/15
2.9%2.7%2.2%2.3%2.1%3.2%3.6%3.3%2.4%2.2%2.2%2.1%
1/162/163/164/165/166/167/168/169/1610/1611/1612/16
2.4%2.2%2.3%1.8%2.0%3.1%3.4%3.5%2.6%2.4%2.2%2.1%
1/172/173/174/175/176/177/178/179/1710/1711/1712/17
2.2%1.9%1.8%1.8%2.0%2.6%3.3%3.1%2.3%2.2%2.0%2.1%
1/182/183/184/185/186/187/188/189/1810/1811/1812/18
2.3%2.0%2.1%1.8%1.7%2.8%2.8%2.9%2.0%1.9%2.1%2.1%
1/192/193/194/195/196/197/198/199/1910/1911/1912/19
2.4%2.0%1.9%1.8%1.8%2.7%2.9%2.6%2.1%1.8%1.9%1.7%
1/202/203/204/205/206/207/208/209/2010/2011/2012/20
2.1%1.8%2.6%8.8%7.7%7.7%7.6%6.1%4.3%3.3%3.5%3.2%
1/212/213/214/215/216/217/218/219/2110/2111/2112/21
3.5%3.1%2.9%3.0%2.8%3.8%3.9%3.4%2.4%2.1%1.8%1.6%
1/222/223/224/225/226/227/228/229/2210/2211/2212/22
2.5%2.2%1.6%1.6%1.7%2.6%3.0%2.8%1.9%1.9%1.7%1.6%
1/232/233/234/235/236/237/238/239/2310/2311/2312/23
2.1%         

Sales & Related – Unemployment Rate

1/082/083/084/085/086/087/088/089/0810/0811/0812/08
5.2%5.2%4.8%4.3%5.1%5.6%6.2%6.3%5.7%6.1%6.5%7.0%
1/092/093/094/095/096/097/098/099/0910/0911/0912/09
7.7%8.4%8.9%8.6%8.9%9.1%8.3%8.7%8.9%9.5%9.1%8.9%
1/102/103/104/105/106/107/108/109/1010/1011/1012/10
10.1%10.2%9.7%9.2%9.6%9.4%10.1%9.0%9.4%9.1%8.8%8.3%
1/112/113/114/115/116/117/118/119/1110/1111/1112/11
9.3%9.0%8.5%8.5%9.4%9.7%9.4%8.6%9.4%8.2%7.8%7.7%
1/122/123/124/125/126/127/128/129/1210/1211/1212/12
8.2%7.9%8.1%7.6%7.9%8.4%8.3%8.6%7.9%7.0%7.3%7.0%
1/132/133/134/135/136/137/138/139/1310/1311/1312/13
8.5%8.2%7.7%6.9%7.1%6.7%6.9%7.2%7.5%7.3%7.0%6.3%
1/142/143/144/145/146/147/148/149/1410/1411/1412/14
7.1%7.7%6.8%5.8%6.8%6.1%6.2%5.6%5.4%5.2%5.3%5.0%
1/152/153/154/155/156/157/158/159/1510/1511/1512/15
5.8%5.2%5.8%5.5%5.8%5.6%5.8%5.4%5.6%5.3%5.1%4.3%
1/162/163/164/165/166/167/168/169/1610/1611/1612/16
5.0%4.4%4.4%5.2%5.1%4.9%4.9%4.8%5.2%4.4%4.6%4.6%
1/172/173/174/175/176/177/178/179/1710/1711/1712/17
5.2%4.3%3.9%4.2%4.5%4.8%4.2%4.2%3.7%4.0%4.1%3.8%
1/182/183/184/185/186/187/188/189/1810/1811/1812/18
4.6%4.5%4.5%4.1%4.2%4.4%4.0%3.5%4.0%3.6%3.7%3.6%
1/192/193/194/195/196/197/198/199/1910/1911/1912/19
4.5%5.0%4.6%3.9%3.6%3.4%3.2%3.8%3.6%3.4%3.3%3.3%
1/202/203/204/205/206/207/208/209/2010/2011/2012/20
4.5%4.2%4.3%17.1%16.2%13.3%10.9%8.6%8.9%7.0%6.3%5.3%
1/212/213/214/215/216/217/218/219/2110/2111/2112/21
6.6%6.6%6.3%6.3%6.4%6.0%6.0%5.5%5.2%4.5%4.2%3.6%
1/222/223/224/225/226/227/228/229/2210/2211/2212/22
4.2%3.6%4.3%4.1%4.2%4.1%4.1%4.0%3.8%3.4%3.3%3.4%
1/232/233/234/235/236/237/238/239/2310/2311/2312/23
4.4%