Bob Marshall’s September 2015 BLS Analysis for Recruiters; 10/2/15
September BLS Preface
TBMG News
Bob Marshall – Training/Coaching Updates:
The Ohio Recruiters Association (ORA) Fall Workshop, October 19, 2015
I will be presenting to the ORA Fall Workshop on Monday, October 19, 2015 at the Nationwide Hotel and Conference Center in Columbus Ohio. My presentations will run from 9:45 am to 3:30 pm. The titles of the presentations will include: Your Desk as a Manufacturing Plant; How to Establish Elegant Rapport through Elegant Communication; How to Teach a Recruiter to Bill $1,010,349.50 in One Year; & Recruiting the ‘Placeable’ Candidate.
Top Echelon, Free Recruiter Training Webinar, December 8, 2015
My Top Echelon presentation (title to be announced) will be on Tuesday afternoon, December 8, 2015, at 1pm, Eastern Time.
COACHING UPDATES
TBMG Silver Coaching Plan, (revised 2015)
*An affordable investment for those you want the accountability factor;
*We have twice per month telephone meetings—basically every other week (although I will be available at any time should the need to talk arise);
*Your numbers will be tracked on a weekly basis (recommended);
*$600 per month; 3-month commitment;
*The goal with this plan is to double your current levels of production;
And that is basically that!
You can also read the descriptions of my other coaching plans, and all of my products, on my website @ www.themarshallplan.org or you can reach me directly at 770-898-5550 or email me @ bob@themarshallplan.org.
Preface
Many of you continue to correspond with me about these monthly BLS analyses and have asked if it is OK to use them in your presentations. The answer is, of course, yes! That is why I spend the time to assemble this information. I would encourage any of you who have that desire to weave any of the information I have printed below into your presentations. I write these analyses for the benefit of our recruitment industry in general and for the members of my distribution list in particular. So use this info as you deem appropriate.
I also write these monthly BLS analyses to not only counterbalance the negative/incorrect press reporting of our general economic state but, more than that, to remind all of my recruitment readers that, at the level we work, there is no unemployment and so we must recruit to find the candidates our client companies so desperately need!
So, to my recruiter colleagues, get out there and do what your name implies…RECRUIT! When your client companies have unique and difficult positions to fill, they need you. When they are being picky, they need you. When they are longing for more production from fewer employees, they need you. Go fill those needs. These should be the halcyon days in the recruitment arena!
Finally, always remember that we are not in an HR business, but in a ‘circumventing the time factor in the hiring sequence’ business—and adding value to our client companies.
GDP estimate revised upward, beats forecast
Daily News, September 25, 2015
US real GDP rose in the 2nd quarter at an annual rate of 3.9%, according to a 3rd estimate that revises an earlier, 2nd estimate of 3.7%, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. Personal consumption expenditures and nonresidential fixed investment increased more than previously estimated.
In the 1st quarter, real GDP increased only 0.6%.
Bloomberg reports the new estimate exceeds the median forecast of 76 economists surveyed, which called for a 3.7% gain in GDP. “Declining energy prices have been a big support, and that was a big windfall for consumers,” said Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, told Bloomberg. “We’ve been growing above trend, and we think that’ll probably continue for at least the 3rd and 4th quarters.”
Jason Furman, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors wrote in a blog post on Whitehouse.gov: “Real GDP growth in the 2nd quarter was revised up for a 2nd time, as consumers spent more and businesses invested more than previously estimated. This morning’s report confirms that the economy grew at a much faster pace in the 2nd quarter than in the 1st, with strong personal consumption leading the rebound. Over the first half of 2015, domestic demand remained robust, even as slowing foreign demand and reduced oil-driven drilling investment dragged on growth.”
Fed Chair Janet Yellen Says She Expects Interest Rate Hike by End of Year
NBC News, Erin McClam, September 25, 2015
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen says she expects the central bank to begin raising interest rates by the end of the year.
The Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate to near zero in 2008, during the financial crisis, and has not raised it since. Yellen made the prediction in a lecture Thursday night at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
Stocks were set to open sharply higher Friday on Wall Street. Dow Jones industrial average futures were up more than 200 points. Investors have been waiting for months for clarity from the Fed on when it will raise rates as the economy improves.
At its latest policy meeting, last week, the Fed chose not to raise rates, citing concerns about the world economy and low inflation. The Fed meets twice more this year, in late October and mid-December.
Yellen, 69, paused twice toward the end of her speech, appearing to have lost her place, and was seen afterward by paramedics. The Fed said she “felt dehydrated at the end of a long speech under bright lights” and felt fine later.
Are New Manufacturing Decline Stats Recession Signs?
Roger McKinney, Affluent Investor, September 18, 2015
In the Ricardo Effect, Hayek’s chief contribution to the Austrian business-cycle theory (ABCT), the turning point in the cycle from expansion to recession happens when the makers of consumer goods and services employ more workers and buy less equipment. Equipment makers face plummeting sales and rising costs for materials and labor, and therefore a profits squeeze. So they cut back on production.
Signs of that may have appeared in New York. The New York Federal Reserve released its August 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey reporting that the index fell to -14.9, its lowest level since 2009 in the depths of the latest recession. Naturally, economists had expected the number to be +3.86. A positive number suggests growth ahead and you can guess what negative numbers mean.
New orders for manufactured goods fell to -15.7 while shipments of finished good declined to -13.8 and inventory levels dropped to -17.3. The Fed has analyzed the index as a proxy for the future of the economy as a whole and claims that the survey “potentially offers significant information about trends in U.S. manufacturing production and employment,” and is at least as good as the surveys by the Institute for Supply Management and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Business Outlook. According to the Investopedia article on the survey, the ISM survey indicates a modest slowdown while the Philadelphia one confirms the Empire State survey.
Most financial pundits will dismiss the manufacturing surveys because manufacturing makes up only about 12% of US GDP. They dismissed the fall in oil prices for similar reasons. But keep in mind that the highly stylized GDP figures report only about half of the economic activity in the country because its creators wanted to report only new output net of most costs. The BEA has added a new series called Gross Output that doubles the size of manufacturing in the total economy and more clearly reflects reality.
At the same time, the energy and manufacturing sectors are not islands in the economy. Suffering in those sectors indicates that their customers are hurting and the slowdown will hurt their suppliers. As they lay off employees, sales of consumer goods will begin to decline.
We can look at the economy as the Mississippi River flowing from raw materials to finished consumer goods. Raw materials producers are at the headwaters in the north of the US and retailers at the delta outside New Orleans where the river empties into the Gulf of Mexico. Manufacturers are in the middle transforming raw materials into capital goods and consumer goods. Shipping companies are the barges plowing up and down the muddy river. A drought in the upper regions of the river will not show up immediately in New Orleans, but eventually the river will run shallower there.
We have watched for months as the energy and minerals sectors have crashed and hurt the economies of commodity exporting nations such as Brazil, Russia, Australia and Canada. The Chinese dragon, the consumer goods supplier to the West, is in the hospital. In the US, the collapse in oil prices is hurting Texas, Oklahoma, Montana, Colorado and the Dakotas while Caterpillar has endured years of declining sales.
All of those industries employ vast numbers of services, such as accounting, engineering and law firms as well as use hotels and restaurants. Trucking, rail and ship transportation is woven into the fabric. It’s only a matter of time before the drought reaches New Orleans and shows up in the GDP.
Talking heads in the media will scoff at the recent sell-off in the stock market, claiming that the market is out of touch with the real economy. They don’t seem to know that the market is forward looking and is trying to tell us where it thinks profits are headed. Of course, most of them probably sold their stocks at the bottom of the last bear market and only recently got back in.
Qualified workers becoming scarce in many states, The Conference Board says
Daily News, September 17, 2015
Companies in high-risk US regions — particularly the Northeast and Midwest — need to start planning now for deep and long-lasting labor shortages, according to an executive action report by The Conference Board. The report, “The US Labor Supply Problem: Which States Are Most at Risk?” is part of a research series tracing the global impact of aging populations and shrinking workforces over the next decade and beyond.
“We are now in a period of unusually slow working-age population growth — nearly zero through 2030, according to the US Census Bureau,” said Gad Levanon, director of macroeconomic research at The Conference Board and a co-author of the report. “The underlying demographic trends mean even delayed retirement and higher participation rates will do little to stop labor demand from far outstripping labor-force growth. But while adjusting to this reality will require national thinking and perhaps a federal policy response, the onset and impact of the worker shortage will vary widely across the US. For many places in the Northeast and Midwest, the time is now.”
The report breaks down the 2015 to 2030 labor-market outlook for each of the 50 states. Key findings include:
• Immigration may be a wildcard — and game-changer — for expanding labor supply to meet expected demand. While factors like birth and death rates, population distribution, and retirement expectations are only bent — if at all — over decades and generations, net migration can be increased considerably in the relatively short term. While unlikely in the current political climate, reform that boosts visas for skilled workers and regularizes the status of undocumented residents could substantially mitigate projected labor shortages across the country.
• The size and shape of working-age populations vary widely across states, and will diverge further. To calculate where they are headed, the report compares the current size of two age groups as a proportion of the working-age population: 3 to 17 year olds, whom will be entering the workforce over the next 15 years; and 50 to 64 year olds, whom will be leaving. With its unusually high fertility rate, the younger group in Utah outnumbers the older by over 18 percentage points. Texas (+7.77 points), Idaho (+6.36), and Arizona (+3.94) also have large rising cohorts of young workers. Throughout the Northeast, by contrast, 3 to 17 year olds are substantially outnumbered as a proportion of the population by 50 to 64 year olds, with the problem most acute in Maine (−10.91), Vermont (−10.35), and New Hampshire (−8.81).
• The combined effects of age distribution and migration will mean serious labor-force contraction in some states, relatively healthy growth in others. Nationwide, the working-age population is projected to grow 5.2% between 2015 and 2030. However, while states like Nevada, Arizona, and Texas may see their working-age populations grow by over 20%, others — largely in the Northeast and Midwest — could see contraction approaching 10%. (These projections are based on historical trends and will likely be counteracted somewhat by worker movements adjusting to demand.)
• States at the highest risk of labor shortages are those that both have relatively low unemployment rates now and projected weak labor force growth in the future. These states are concentrated in the Midwest and New England, but also include Montana, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Oregon. By contrast, favorable demographic trends and relatively high unemployment remaining from the Great Recession reduce the likelihood of serious shortages in California, Arizona, Nevada, and other Southwest states. A unique case, Texas has extremely tight labor markets now, but a long-term outlook moderated by high numbers of youth and migrants entering the workforce.
• Effects of a tightening labor markets are already being felt in many locales, even as others continue to struggle with high unemployment. Businesses must take these forces into account in their planning, and work with policymakers to improve job skills and labor-force participation in the areas in which they operate. Given sufficient private- and public-sector attention, the size of the labor market and its low barriers to worker movement may ultimately help the US weather the challenge of aging populations better than other advanced economies like Europe and Japan.
CEO survey finds decline in GDP estimate, hiring plans
Daily News, September 15, 2015
CEOs now expect 2015 US gross domestic product growth of 2.4%, down from last quarter’s estimate of 2.5%, according to the Business Roundtable’s third-quarter 2015 CEO Economic Outlook Survey. CEOs expect sales, investment and hiring to decrease in the next 6 months, according to the report.
The survey found 33% of respondents expect their company’s US employment to increase in the next 6 months, down slightly from 34% in the 2nd-quarter survey; 32% expect employment to decrease in the next 6 months, up from 26% in the prior survey; and 35% expect no change, down from 40% in the 2nd-quarter survey.
“The downward trend in CEO plans for investment and hiring continues to reflect reasonable caution regarding near-term prospects for modest U.S. growth,” said Randall Stephenson, chairman of Business Roundtable and chairman and CEO of AT&T Inc.
According to the survey, 41% of respondents expect their company’s US capital spending to increase in the next 6 months, up from 35% in the 2nd-quarter survey.
“Predictability is critical to spur investment and unlock economic expansion and job growth,” Stephenson said. “Congress and the Administration need to work together to pass a prudent spending plan and renew expired tax provisions. US workers cannot afford the instability that comes with inaction.”
The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index — a composite index of CEO expectations for the next 6 months of sales, capital spending and employment — fell in the 3rd-quarter to a reading of 74.1 from 81.3 in the 2nd-quarter. The long-term average of the index is 80.4.
The Business Roundtable is an association of CEOs. The 3rd-quarter 2015 survey included 141 member CEOs and was completed between Aug. 5 and Aug. 26, 2015.
The new ADP/Moody’s National Employment Report: only 47% of all new job growth in September, 2015 came from Small and Mid-size Companies!
September 30, 2015
Private sector employment increased by 200,000 jobs from August to September (up from the increase of 190,000 jobs last month), according to the September ADP National Employment Report®, which is produced by ADP® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
By Company Size
Small businesses: 38,000
1-19 employees 19,000
20-49 employees 19,000
Medium businesses: 56,000
50-499 employees 56,000
Large businesses: 106,000
500-999 employees <-3,000>
1,000+ employees 109,000
By Sector
Goods producing 12,000
Service providing 188,000
Industry Snapshot
Construction 35,000
Manufacturing <-15,000>
Trade/transportation/utilities 39,000
Financial activities 15,000
Professional/business services 29,000
Payrolls for businesses with 49 or fewer employees increased by 37,000 jobs in September, less than half of the August gain. Employment among companies with 50-499 employees increased by 56,000 jobs, 18,000 fewer than the previous month. Employment gains at large companies – those with 500 or more employees – rose dramatically from August, adding 106,000 jobs in September. However, companies with 500-999 employees lost 3,000 jobs. Companies with over 1,000 employees added 109,000 jobs, accounting for over half the total jobs added for the month.
Goods-producing employment rose by 12,000 jobs in September, off from 15,000 the previous month. The construction industry added 35,000 jobs in September, almost double the 18,000 gained in August. Meanwhile, manufacturing dropped into negative territory losing 15,000 jobs in September, the worst showing since December 2010.
Service-providing employment rose by 188,000 jobs in September, up from 172,000 in August. The report indicates that professional/business services contributed 29,000 jobs in September, nearly even with August’s 30,000 jobs gained. Trade/transportation/utilities grew by 39,000, up from 25,000 the previous month. The 15,000 new jobs added in financial activities were on par with last month’s 14,000.
“Businesses with more than 1,000 employees contributed over half of the job gains in September, despite weakness in energy and manufacturing,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, VP and head of the ADP Research Institute. “The largest companies appear to be starting to overcome the impacts of weak global demand and the high dollar, while the smallest companies may have pulled back as concerns about the resiliency of the U.S. economy grew and consumer confidence softened.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The U.S. job machine continues to produce jobs at a strong and consistent pace. Despite job losses in the energy and manufacturing industries, the economy is creating close to 200,000 jobs per month. At this pace full employment is fast approaching.”
(The October 2015 ADP National Employment Report will be released at 8:15 a.m. ET on November 4, 2015).
Due to the important contribution that small businesses make to economic growth, employment data that are specific to businesses with 49 or fewer employees is reported each month in the ADP Small Business Report®, a subset of the ADP National Employment Report.
September 2015 Small Business Report Highlights
Total Small Business Employment: 37,000
●By Size
►1-19 employees 19,000
►20-49 employees 19,000
●By Sector for 1-49 Employees
►Goods Producing 8,000
►Service Producing 29,000
●By Sector for 1-19 Employees
►Goods Producing 6,000
►Service Producing 12,000
●By Sector for 20-49 Employees
►Goods Producing 2,000
►Service Producing 17,000
Bottom-line: To my audience of recruiters, always remember this: Our ‘bread and butter’, especially on the contingency side of the house, has historically been, and continues to be, small and medium-sized client companies. Along with the large companies, these companies need to be in included in your niche!
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary – July 2015
On September 9th, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the number of job openings again rose to a series high of 5,800,000 on the last business day of July. The number of hires and separations edged down to 5,000,000 and 4,700,000, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was 1.9% for the 4th month in a row, and the layoffs and discharges rate declined to 1.1%. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by four geographic regions.
Job Openings
Job openings increased to a new series high in July, reaching 5,800,000. The prior series high was 5,400,000 in May 2015. The series began in December 2000. The job openings rate for July rose to 3.9% after measuring 3.6% in the prior 3 months. The number of job openings rose in July for total private and was little changed for government. Several industries experienced a rise in openings in July: professional and business services (+122,000), accommodation and food services (+82,000), retail trade (+77,000), and nondurable goods manufacturing (+27,000). In the regions, the number of openings rose in the Northeast (+154,000) and South (+141,000).
The number of job openings (not seasonally adjusted) increased over the 12 months ending in July for total nonfarm and total private. The number of job openings for government was little changed. Job openings rose over the year for many industries with the largest increases occurring in professional and business services (+452,000), health care and social assistance (+174,000), accommodation and food services (+141,000), and retail trade (+136,000). Job openings decreased over the year in mining and logging (-8,000). The number of job openings increased over the year in all 4 regions.
Hires
The number of hires was 5,000,000 in July, edging down from June. The hires rate was 3.5%. The number of hires edged down for total private and was little changed for government in July. There was little change in the number of hires in all industries and regions over the month.
Over the 12 months ending in July, the number of hires (not seasonally adjusted) was little changed for total nonfarm and total private, and rose for government. At the industry level, hires increased in accommodation and food services (+113,000) and in federal government (+13,000), but decreased in construction (-109,000) and in arts, entertainment, and recreation (-37,000). The number of hires was little changed in all 4 regions.
Net Change in Employment
Large numbers of hires and separations occur every month throughout the business cycle. Net employment change results from the relationship between hires and separations. When the number of hires exceeds the number of separations, employment rises, even if the hires level is steady or declining. Conversely, when the number of hires is less than the number of separations, employment declines, even if the hires level is steady or rising. Over the 12 months ending in July 2015, hires totaled 60,600,000 and separations totaled 57,800,000, yielding a net employment gain of 2,700,000. These totals include workers who may have been hired and separated more than once during the year.
(The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey results for August 2015 are scheduled to be released on Friday, October 16, 2015).
As we recruiters know, that 5,800,000 number only represents 20% of the jobs currently available in the marketplace. The other 80% of job openings are unpublished and are filled through networking or word of mouth or by using a RECRUITER. So, those 5,800,000 published job openings now become a total of 29,000,000 published and hidden job orders.
In September there were 7,915,000 unemployed workers. What was the main reason why those workers were unemployed? Two Words: Structural Unemployment. If we can’t figure out how to educate and/or reeducate those 7,915,000 unemployed, then they will keep reappearing each month as a BLS unemployment statistic—as they have. In the meantime, our recruitment marketplace flourishes!
Online Labor Demand Declines 138,500 in September
September 30, 2015
• Following 2 months of increases, labor demand drops in September
• September losses were spread across most States
• US Supply/Demand rate continues to improve as demand remains strong and unemployment falls
Online advertised vacancies declined 138,500 to 5,280,200 in September, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series, released today. The August Supply/Demand rate stands at 1.48 unemployed for each advertised vacancy with a total of 2,600,000 more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies. The number of unemployed was 8,000,000 in August.
“The third quarter of 2015 closed with a small over-the-quarter decline of 21,000,” said Gad Levanon, Managing Director of Macroeconomic and Labor Market Research at The Conference Board. “Labor demand in 2015 started with a very strong first quarter, followed by losses in the second quarter and an essentially flat third quarter, leaving the average monthly increases in 2015 at a modest 18,000 per month. While the number of ads flattened in recent months, it remains at a very high level, suggesting a strong labor demand.”
In September, the Professional category showed gains in Computer/Math (+11.1), Healthcare Practitioners (+7.1) and Management (+3.9) with losses in the other areas. The Services/Production category saw losses in all areas including Office and Administration (−20.3), Food (−13.0) and Transportation (−11.7).
The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® Data Series (HWOL) measures the number of new, first-time online jobs and jobs reposted from the previous month for over 16,000 Internet job boards, corporate boards and smaller job sites that serve niche markets and smaller geographic areas.
(The October 2015 Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series will be released at 10:00 AM ET on Wednesday, November 4, 2015).
U-6 Update
In September, 2015 the regular unemployment number remained at 5.1%, and the broader U-6 measure dropped to 10.0%, a little less than twice as high as the regular unemployment figure.
The above 10.0% is referred to as the U6 unemployment rate (found in the monthly BLS Employment Situation Summary, Table A-15; Table A-12 in 2008 and before). It counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts “marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons.” Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week. And the “marginally attached workers” include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work. The age considered for this calculation is 16 year and over.
Here is a look at the September U-6 numbers for the past 12 years:
September 2014 11.8%
September 2013 13.6%
September 2012 14.7%
September 2011 16.4%
September 2010 17.1%
September 2009 17.0%
September 2008 11.2%
September 2007 8.4%
September 2006 8.0%
September 2005 9.0%
September 2004 9.4%
September 2003 10.4%
The September BLS Analysis
The unemployment rate is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a division of the US Department of Labor. The rate is found by dividing the number of unemployed by the total civilian labor force. On October 2nd, 2015, the BLS published the most recent unemployment rate for September, 2015 of 5.1% (actually it is 5.050%, down by .062% from 5.112% in August, 2015.
The unemployment rate was determined by dividing the unemployed of 7,915,000 (— down from the month before by 114,000—since September, 2014 this number has decreased by 1,322,000) by the total civilian labor force of 156,715,000 (down by 350,000 from August, 2015). Since September 2014, our total civilian labor force has increased by 870,000 workers.
(The continuing ‘Strange BLS Math’ saga): The BLS continues to increase the total Civilian Noninstitutional Population—this time up to 251,325,000. This is an increase of 229,000 from last month’s increase. In one year’s time, this population has increased by 2,879,000. The Civilian Noninstitutional Population has increased each month by…)
Up from August 2015 by 229,000
Up from July 2015 by 220,000
Up from June 2015 by 213,000
Up from May 2015 by 208,000
Up from April 2015 by 189,000
Up from March 2015 by 186,000
Up from February 2015 by 191,000
Up from January 2015 by 176,000
Up from December 2014 by 696,000
Up from November 2014 by 143,000
Up from October 2014 by 187,000
Up from September 2014 by 211,000
Up from August 2014 by 217,000
Up from July 2014 by 206,000
Up from June 2014 by 209,000
Up from May 2014 by 192,000
Up from April 2014 by 183,000
Up from March 2014 by 181,000
Up from February 2014 by 173,000
Up from January 2014 by 170,000
Up from December 2013 by 170,000
Up from November 2013 by 178,000
Up from October 2013 by 186,000
Up from September 2013 by 213,000
Up from August 2013 by 209,000
Up from July 2013 by 203,000
Up from June 2013 by 204,000
Up from May 2013 by 189,000
Up from April 2013 by 188,000
Up from March 2013 by 180,000
Up from February 2013 by 167,000
Up from January 2013 by 165,000
Up from December 2012 by 313,000
Up from November 2012 by 176,000
Up from October 2012 by 191,000
Up from September 2012 by 211,000
Up from August 2012 by 206,000
Up from July 2012 by 212,000
Up from June 2012 by 199,000
Up from May 2012 by 189,000
Up from April 2012 by 182,000
Up from March 2012 by 180,000
Up from February 2012 by 169,000
Up from January 2012 by 335,000
Up from December 2011 by 2,020,000
And this month the BLS has decreased the Civilian Labor Force to 156,715,000 (down from August by 350,000).
Subtract the second number (‘civilian labor force’) from the first number (‘civilian noninstitutional population’) and you get 94,610,000 ‘Not in Labor Force’—up by 579,000 from last month’s 94,031,000. Since September, 2014, 2,009,000 US workers have vanished! Where did those 2,009,000 potential workers disappear to in one year’s time? I am assuming they still have to eat and pay their rent. They still need money, don’t they? The government tells us that these NILFs got discouraged and just gave up looking for a job. My monthly recurring question is: “If that is the case, how do they live when they don’t earn any money because they don’t have a job? Are they ALL relying on the government to support them??”
This month our Employment Participation Rate—the population 16 years and older working or seeking work—fell to a significantly low of 62.4%. This is .2% below the historically low rate of 62.6% recorded last month—and, before that, the rate recorded in October 1977—9 months into Jimmy Carter’s presidency—38 years ago!
Final take on these numbers: Fewer people looking for work will always bring down the unemployment rate.
Anyway, back to the point I am trying to make. On the surface, these new unemployment rates are scary, but let’s look a little deeper and consider some other numbers.
The unemployment rate includes all types of workers—construction workers, government workers, etc. We recruiters, on the other hand, mainly place management, professional and related types of workers. That unemployment rate in September was 2.4% (this rate was .5% lower than last month’s 2.9%). Or, you can look at it another way. We usually place people who have college degrees. That unemployment rate in September was 2.5% (this rate was the same as last month’s 2.5%).
Now stay with me a little longer. This gets better. It’s important to understand (and none of the pundits mention this) that the unemployment rate, for many reasons, will never be 0%, no matter how good the economy is. Without boring you any more than I have already, let me add here that Milton Friedman (the renowned Nobel Prize-winning economist), is famous for the theory of the “natural rate of unemployment” (or the term he preferred, NAIRU, which is the acronym for Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment). Basically, this theory states that full employment presupposes an ‘unavoidable and acceptable’ unemployment rate of somewhere between 4-6% with it. Economists often settle on 5%, although the “New Normal Unemployment Rate” has been suggested to fall at 6.7%.
Nevertheless (if you will allow me to apply a ‘macro’ concept to a ‘micro’ issue), if this rate is applied to our main category of Management, Professional and Related types of potential recruits, and/or our other main category of College-Degreed potential recruits, we are well below the 4-6% threshold for full employment…we find no unemployment! None! Zilch! A Big Goose Egg!
THE IMPORTANCE OF GDP
“The economic goal of any nation, as of any individual, is to get the greatest results with the least effort. The whole economic progress of mankind has consisted in getting more production with the same labor…Translated into national terms, this first principle means that our real objective is to maximize production. In doing this, full employment—that is, the absence of involuntary idleness—becomes a necessary by-product. But production is the end, employment merely the means. We cannot continuously have the fullest production without full employment. But we can very easily have full employment without full production.”
–Economics in One Lesson, by Henry Hazlitt, Chapter X, “The Fetish of Full Employment”
On September 25th, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced the real gross domestic product (GDP) — the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes — increased at an annual rate of +3.9% in the second quarter of 2015, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.6%.
The GDP estimate is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.7%. With the third estimate for the second quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and nonresidential fixed investment increased more than previously estimated.
The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
*The economy needs to expand at about +3% to keep the unemployment rate from rising.
(The “advance” estimate for the 3rd Quarter 2015 GDP will be released on October 29, 2015).
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR UNEMPLOYMENT EVER TO BE ZERO
‘Unemployment’ is an emotional ‘trigger’ word…a ‘third rail’, if you will. It conjures up negative thoughts. But it is important to realize that, while we want everyone who wants a job to have the opportunity to work, unemployment can never be zero and, in fact, can be disruptive to an economy if it gets too close to zero. Very low unemployment can actually hurt the economy by creating an upward pressure on wages which invariably leads to higher production costs and prices. This can lead to inflation. The lowest the unemployment rate has been in the US was 2.5%. That was in May and June 1953 when the economy overheated due to the Korean War. When this bubble burst, it kicked off the Recession of 1953. A healthy economy will always include some percentage of unemployment.
There are five main sources of unemployment:
1. Cyclical (or demand-deficient) unemployment – This type of unemployment fluctuates with the business cycle. It rises during a recession and falls during the subsequent recovery. Workers who are most affected by this type of unemployment are laid off during a recession when production volumes fall and companies use lay-offs as the easiest way to reduce costs. These workers are usually rehired, some months later, when the economy improves.
2. Frictional unemployment – This comes from the normal turnover in the labor force. This is where new workers are entering the workforce and older workers are retiring and leaving vacancies to be filled by the new workers or those re-entering the workforce. This category includes workers who are between jobs.
3. Structural unemployment – This happens when the skills possessed by the unemployed worker don’t match the requirements of the opening—whether those be in characteristics and skills or in location. This can come from new technology or foreign competition (e.g., foreign outsourcing). This type of unemployment usually lasts longer than frictional unemployment because retraining, and sometimes relocation, is involved. Occasionally jobs in this category can just disappear overseas.
4. Seasonal unemployment – This happens when the workforce is affected by the climate or time of year. Construction workers and agricultural workers aren’t needed as much during the winter season because of the inclement weather. On the other hand, retail workers experience an increase in hiring shortly before, and during, the holiday season, but can be laid off shortly thereafter.
5. Surplus unemployment – This is caused by minimum wage laws and unions. When wages are set at a higher level, unemployment can often result. Why? To keep within the same payroll budget, the company must let go of some workers to pay the remaining workers a higher salary.
Other factors influencing the unemployment rate:
1. Length of unemployment – Some studies indicate that an important factor influencing a workers decision to accept a new job is directly related to the length of the unemployment benefit they are receiving. Currently, in 2015, workers in most states are eligible for up to 26 weeks of benefits from the regular state-funded unemployment compensation program, although eight states provide fewer weeks and two provide more. No additional weeks of federal benefits are available in any state: the temporary Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC) program expired at the end of 2013, and no state currently qualifies to offer more weeks under the permanent Extended Benefits (EB) program. Studies suggest that additional weeks of benefits reduce the incentive of the unemployed to seek and accept less desirable jobs.
2. Changes in GDP – Since hiring workers takes time, the improvement in the unemployment rate usually lags behind the improvement in the GDP.
WHERE RECRUITERS PLACE
Now back to the issue at hand, namely the recruiting, and placing, of professionals and those with college degrees.
If you take a look at the past few years of unemployment in the September “management, professional and related” types of worker category, you will find the following rates:
September 2014 2.8%
September 2013 3.5%
September 2012 3.9%
September 2011 4.4%
September 2010 4.4%
September 2009 5.2%
September 2008 2.8%
September 2007 2.1%
September 2006 2.1%
September 2005 2.3%
September 2004 2.5%
September 2003 3.2%
September 2002 3.3%
Here are the rates, during those same time periods, for “college-degreed” workers:
September 2014 2.9%
September 2013 3.7%
September 2012 4.0%
September 2011 4.2%
September 2010 4.5%
September 2009 4.8%
September 2008 2.6%
September 2007 2.0%
September 2006 2.0%
September 2005 2.3%
September 2004 2.6%
September 2003 3.2%
September 2002 2.9%
So, while September’s 2015 rates for these two categories, 2.4% and 2.5%, respectively, are trending very positively, when looking at the big picture, it’s not anything to be very happy about either—especially when we see how well we had it during the 2005-2007 time frame. But regardless, these unemployment numbers usually include a good number of job hoppers, job shoppers and rejects. We, on the other hand, are engaged by our client companies to find those candidates who are happy, well-appreciated, making good money and currently working and we entice them to move for even better opportunities—especially where new technologies are expanding. This will never change. And that is why, no matter the unemployment rate, we still need to market to find the best possible job orders and we still need to recruit to find the best possible candidates.
Below are the numbers for the over 25 year olds:
Less that H.S. diploma – Unemployment Rate
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
7.7% 7.4% 8.2% 7.9% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 9.7% 9.8% 10.4% 10.6% 10.9%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
12.0% 12.6% 13.3% 14.8% 15.5% 15.5% 15.4% 15.6% 15.0% 15.5% 15.0% 15.3%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
15.2% 15.6% 14.5% 14.7% 15.0% 14.1% 13.8% 14.0% 15.4% 15.3% 15.7% 15.3%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
14.2% 13.9% 13.7% 14.6% 14.7% 14.3% 15.0% 14.3% 14.0% 13.8% 13.2% 13.8%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
13.1% 12.9% 12.6% 12.5% 13.0% 12.6% 12.7% 12.0% 11.3% 12.2% 12.2% 11.7%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
12.0% 11.2% 11.1% 11.6% 11.1% 10.7% 11.0% 11.3% 10.3% 10.9% 10.8% 9.8%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
9.6% 9.8% 9.6% 8.9% 9.1% 9.1% 9.6% 9.1% 8.4% 7.9% 8.5% 8.6%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
8.5% 8.4% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.2% 8.3% 7.7% 7.9%
H.S. Grad; no college – Unemployment Rate
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
4.6% 4.7% 5.1% 5.0% 5.2% 5.2% 5.3% 5.8% 6.3% 6.5% 6.9% 7.7%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
8.1% 8.3% 9.0% 9.3% 10.0% 9.8% 9.4% 9.7% 10.8% 11.2% 10.4% 10.5%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.5% 10.8% 10.6% 10.9% 10.8% 10.1% 10.3% 10.0% 10.1% 10.0% 9.8%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.4% 9.5% 9.5% 9.7% 9.5% 10.0% 9.3% 9.6% 9.7% 9.6% 8.8% 8.7%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.4% 8.3% 8.0% 7.9% 8.1% 8.4% 8.7% 8.8% 8.7% 8.4% 8.1% 8.0%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.1% 7.9% 7.6% 7.4% 7.4% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.3% 7.3% 7.1%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.5% 6.4% 6.3% 6.3% 6.5% 5.8% 6.1% 6.2% 5.3% 5.7% 5.6% 5.3%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.4% 5.8% 5.4% 5.5% 5.5% 5.2%
Some College; or AA/AS – Unemployment Rate
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
3.7% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.6% 5.0% 5.1% 5.3% 5.5% 5.6%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
6.2% 7.0% 7.2% 7.4% 7.7% 8.0% 7.9% 8.2% 8.5% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
8.5% 8.0% 8.2% 8.3% 8.3% 8.2% 8.3% 8.7% 9.1% 8.5% 8.7% 8.1%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
8.0% 7.8% 7.4% 7.5% 8.0% 8.4% 8.3% 8.2% 8.4% 8.3% 7.6% 7.7%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
7.2% 7.3% 7.5% 7.6% 7.9% 7.5% 7.1% 6.6% 6.5% 6.9% 6.6% 6.9%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
7.0% 6.7% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5% 6.4% 6.0% 6.1% 6.0% 6.3% 6.4% 6.1%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.0% 6.2% 6.1% 5.7% 5.5% 5.0% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 4.8% 4.9% 4.9%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.2% 5.1% 4.8% 4.7% 4.4% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.3%
BS/BS + – Unemployment Rate
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 2.6% 3.1% 3.2% 3.7%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
3.8% 4.1% 4.3% 4.4% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.9% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.9% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.4% 4.7% 5.1% 4.8%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.2% 4.3% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.1%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% 3.4% 3.3%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 3.1% 3.2% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 2.9%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.8% 2.7% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5%
Management, Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 3.3% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 4.0% 4.6% 5.0% 5.5% 5.4% 5.2% 4.7% 4.6% 4.6%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 4.5% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 4.4% 4.5% 4.7% 4.6%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.7% 4.4% 4.3% 4.0% 4.4% 4.7% 5.0% 4.9% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 4.2%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 3.7% 4.0% 4.4% 4.8% 4.5% 3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.9%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 4.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.5% 3.4% 3.1% 2.9%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 2.9% 3.1% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 2.7%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.9% 2.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.9% 3.1% 2.9% 2.4%
Or employed…(,000)
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
52,165 52,498 52,681 52,819 52,544 52,735 52,655 52,626 53,104 53,485 53,274 52,548
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
52,358 52,196 52,345 52,597 52,256 51,776 51,810 51,724 52,186 52,981 52,263 52,131
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
52,159 52,324 52,163 52,355 51,839 51,414 50,974 50,879 51,757 51,818 52,263 51,704
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
51,866 52,557 53,243 53,216 52,778 52,120 51,662 51,997 52,665 52,864 52,787 52,808
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
53,152 53,208 53,771 54,055 54,156 53,846 53,165 53,696 54,655 55,223 54,951 54,635
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
54,214 54,563 54,721 54,767 54,740 54,323 54,064 54,515 55,013 55,155 55,583 54,880
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
55,096 55,501 56,036 55,896 56,202 55,714 55,381 55,646 56,365 56,759 57,110 56,888
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
57,367 57,596 57,805 57,953 58,155 57,710 57,392 57,288 58,105
And unemployed…(,000)
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
1,164 1,159 1,121 1,088 1,407 1,478 1,585 1,779 1,539 1,647 1,786 1,802
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
2,238 2,137 2,292 2,164 2,373 2,720 3,034 2,925 2,859 2,593 2,530 2,509
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
2,762 2,637 2,600 2,464 2,450 2,644 2,687 2,762 2,381 2,417 2,525 2,468
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
2,557 2,435 2,381 2,196 2,419 2,598 2,742 2,671 2,450 2,410 2,336 2,303
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
2,410 2,336 2,330 2,062 2,275 2,472 2,666 2,556 2,245 2,170 2,077 2,221
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
2,211 2,164 2,020 1,980 1,990 2,358 2,286 2,130 1,978 1,930 1,749 1,637
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
1,784 1,845 1,890 1,642 1,795 2,001 2,011 1,930 1,617 1,582 1,656 1,568
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
1,741 1,601 1,398 1,435 1,460 1,714 1,807 1,686 1,414
For a total Management, Professional & Related workforce of…(,000)
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
53,329 53,657 53,802 53,907 53,951 54,213 54,240 54,405 54,643 55,132 55,060 54,350
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
54,596 54,333 54,637 54,761 54,629 54,496 54,844 54,649 55,045 55,574 54,793 54,640
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
54,921 54,961 54,763 54,819 54,289 54,058 53,661 53,641 54,138 54,235 54,788 54,172
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
54,423 54,992 55,624 55,412 55,197 54,718 54,404 54,668 55,115 55,274 55,123 55,111
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
55,562 55,544 56,101 56,117 56,431 56,318 55,831 56,252 56,900 57,393 57,028 56,856
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
56,425 56,727 56,741 56,747 56,730 56,681 56,350 56,645 56,991 57,085 57,332 56,517
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
56,880 57,346 57,926 57,538 57,997 57,715 57,392 57,576 57,982 58,341 58,766 58,456
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
59,108 59,197 59,203 59,388 59,615 59,424 59,199 58,974 59,519
Management, Business and Financial Operations – Unemployment Rate
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 3.0% 3.6% 3.9%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.4% 5.2%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.2% 5.1% 5.4% 5.1% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.9% 4.3% 5.0% 5.5% 5.7%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
5.3% 4.9% 4.8% 4.6% 4.9% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 4.4%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.5% 4.4% 4.4% 4.0% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 4.1%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
4.0% 3.9% 3.5% 3.5% 3.8% 3.5% 3.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.7% 3.2% 3.1%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.4% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.9% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.4%
Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.9% 3.2% 3.6% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.9% 4.6% 4.3% 4.1% 4.3% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3% 4.4% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.3% 4.1% 3.9% 3.5% 4.0% 4.9% 5.3% 5.1% 4.4% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.8% 5.5% 5.2% 4.3% 3.9% 3.5% 3.8%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 4.6% 4.7% 4.0% 3.6% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 2.6% 2.9% 4.0% 4.1% 3.9% 3.1% 2.7% 2.9% 2.8%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.9% 2.7% 2.2% 2.3% 2.1% 3.2% 3.6% 3.3% 2.4%
Sales & Related – Unemployment Rate
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
5.2% 5.2% 4.8% 4.3% 5.1% 5.6% 6.2% 6.3% 5.7% 6.1% 6.5% 7.0%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
7.7% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 8.9% 9.1% 8.3% 8.7% 8.9% 9.5% 9.1% 8.9%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.2% 9.7% 9.2% 9.6% 9.4% 10.1% 9.0% 9.4% 9.1% 8.8% 8.3%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.3% 9.0% 8.5% 8.5% 9.4% 9.7% 9.4% 8.6% 9.4% 8.2% 7.8% 7.7%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.2% 7.9% 8.1% 7.6% 7.9% 8.4% 8.3% 8.6% 7.9% 7.0% 7.3% 7.0%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.5% 8.2% 7.7% 6.9% 7.1% 6.7% 6.9% 7.2% 7.5% 7.3% 7.0% 6.3%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
7.1% 7.7% 6.8% 5.8% 6.8% 6.1% 6.2% 5.6% 5.4% 5.2% 5.3% 5.0%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.8% 5.2% 5.8% 5.5% 5.8% 5.6% 5.8% 5.4% 5.6%