Bob Marshall’s BLS Analysis; 10/5/12
September BLS Preface
TBMG News
To potential students: If you want to increase your income as a recruiter, all the details of my three plans are available to you on my website: www.TheMarshallPlan.org or you can reach me at 770-898-5550.
Preface
Over the past months, some of you have corresponded with me about these monthly BLS analyses and asked if it is OK to use them in your presentations. The answer is, of course, yes! That is why I spend the time to write down this information. I would encourage any of you who have that desire to weave any of the information I have printed below into your presentations. I write these analyses for the benefit of our recruitment industry in general and for the members of my distribution list in particular. So use this info as you deem appropriate.
I also write these monthly BLS analyses to not only counterbalance the negative/incorrect press reporting of our general economic state but, more than that, to remind all of my recruitment readers that, at the level we work, there is no unemployment and so we must recruit to find the candidates our client companies so desperately need!
So to my recruiter colleagues, get out there and do what your name implies…RECRUIT. When your client companies have unique and difficult positions to fill, they need you. When they are being picky, they need you. When they are longing for more production from fewer employees, they need you. Go fill those needs. These should be the halcyon days in the recruitment arena!
Finally, always remember that we are not in an HR business, but in a ‘circumventing the time factor in the hiring sequence’ business—and adding value to our client companies
Microsoft offers U.S. big bucks for H-1B visas
*Special Note: Below are some of my edited snippets from an article by Kyung M. Song published in the Seattle Times Washington bureau on September 27, 2012.
WASHINGTON — Faced with 6,000 job openings and Congress at loggerheads over whether to admit more skilled workers from overseas, Microsoft on Thursday offered a twofer solution — charging employers millions of dollars for the right to hire more foreigners and using the money for training to eventually fill those jobs with Americans.
The proposal, which Microsoft unveiled in Washington, D.C., is the company’s most public foray into the ongoing ideological battle over immigration reform and quotas on temporary H-1B visas for highly skilled foreign labor.
Microsoft framed the issue in stark economic terms: In a nation beset by high unemployment rates, jobs with six-figure salaries are going begging for qualified hires, particularly minorities.
For instance, the U.S. is expected to add an average of 120,000 computer-related jobs requiring at least a bachelor’s degree for each of the next 10 years. But colleges and universities are minting half as many graduates as needed. “It’s a problem that’s approaching dimensions of a genuine crisis,” said Brad Smith, Microsoft executive vice president and general counsel.
The proposal would likely face an uphill climb in Congress, at least for now. Just last week, House Democrats helped defeat a Republican bill that would have granted permanent residency to 55,000 high-tech workers each year by diverting green cards that now go to less-educated foreigners via lottery.
Microsoft is calling on Congress to grant 20,000 new H-1B visas each year solely for jobs in science, technology, engineering or mathematics (STEM). The current annual cap is 65,000 visas, about half of which are claimed for computer-related occupations.
Microsoft requested an average of 4,100 H-1B visas annually between 2010 and 2011, more than any other corporation.
Additionally, Microsoft wants the federal government to release 20,000 green cards each year from an accumulated pool of a half-million unused ones so high-tech workers could remain in the United States as permanent residents. Without a green card, an H-1B visa holder’s stay is limited to a total of six years.
Although Microsoft offered the plan only in its name, Smith said other employers and trade groups share its concerns about the skills gap. Failure to meet the labor challenge, Smith said, would only push high-tech American jobs abroad.
Smith said companies could pay $10,000 for each of the additional 20,000 H-1B visa reserved for STEM occupations. Large employers now pay $1,500 apiece, along with several thousand dollars more in various fees. For green cards, the fee would be $15,000.
Altogether, Smith said, the fees would bring in $500 million a year.
Microsoft also detailed how that money might be spent. It called for hiring and training more STEM teachers for kindergarten through 12th grade and making advanced-placement computer-science courses available in 95 percent of U.S. high schools that lack them, among other things. It also said colleges should expand their enrollment capacity for STEM applicants, particularly in computer sciences.
Smith called the new $10,000 fee for an H-1B visa a small one-time investment.
A typical new hire for a Microsoft programmer or software-engineer position might command a salary of $100,000 to $120,000, plus a $20,000 signing bonus. Add $50,000 in stock options, plus the cost of an office and other expenses, Smith said, and the total cost might add up to $200,000.
Smith argued that small companies and startups should be able to bear the higher fees just as easily, since salaries don’t vary significantly across companies.
Big Georgia companies sitting on billions in cash
*Special Note: Below are some of my edited snippets from an article by Russell Grantham published in The Atlanta Journal-Constitution on September 16, 2012 addressing the “money on the sidelines” issue that is affecting us all.
Georgia’s largest public companies have been piling up a mountain of cash – nearly $42 billion at latest count – as the firms reap the benefits of previous cost-cutting and a growing global economy.
The big companies also have opened the taps somewhat, spending more on investments in their businesses, acquisitions and payments to their investors.
But so far, such spending hasn’t translated into job growth, at least for Georgia’s 15 largest public companies on the Fortune 500 list, which ranks them by revenues. Those firms, ranging from giant retailer Home Depot to packaging manufacturer Rock-Tenn, employed 1.2 million people at the end of last year. That was 8,700 fewer people than at year-end 2007 — the start of the Great Recession — even though several have acquired other companies during that time.
Since mid-2007, the 15 companies have increased their stockpiles of cash, short-term investments and other reserves to $41.7 billion from $24.2 billion.
Coca-Cola is the standout, with cash and reserves of almost $17 billion at the end of June — a third of its annual sales. The Atlanta beverage giant says it plans to use its cash stockpile, as well as money borrowed at historically low rates, to fuel ambitious growth plans here and overseas, as well as big payouts to shareholders.
The company says it has bought $1.6 billion of its stock so far this year and invested $10 billion over the past three years in its U.S. operations, with plans for more than $30 billion in global investments over the next five years.
But some experts say that, in general, companies big and small are likely to continue saving money for a rainy day, rather than investing it in expansions or paying it to shareholders because they face uncertainty in so many quarters.
“Corporations want a margin of safety to deal with potentially bad outcomes,” said Adrian Cronje, chief investment officer at Atlanta investment advisory firm Balentine LLC.
Nationally, cash reserves now equal 5 percent of corporations’ assets — their highest level since 1961, he said. The typical level is about 3.8 percent.
Others say companies are sitting on more cash because economic demand is weak and they don’t see enough profitable projects to invest in.
“They’re building up the cash because they don’t need it for investment,” said Dean Baker, an economist and co-director of the Center for Economic Policy Research in Washington, D.C. Companies could spend more money on acquisitions or bigger dividends, but most likely “they’ll keep sitting on it,” he said, until customer demand for their products gets considerably stronger.
Either way, the situation translates into a continued weak job market, with Georgia’s unemployment rate at a relatively high 9.3 percent. Nationally, the U.S. economy added just 96,000 jobs in August, well below the 125,000 level economists had been predicting, and down from 141,000 in July. Unemployment fell at the same time to 8.1 percent from 8.3 percent in July, but economists said that was due largely to people giving up the job hunt.
About 395,000 people left the job market, more than offsetting last month’s weak job growth, said Don Sabbarese, director of the Econometric Center at Kennesaw State University’s Coles College of Business. Even though the U.S. economy has been recovering since 2009, employers still aren’t adding enough new jobs to keep pace with the number of new people entering the job market, he said.
“We’ve got 125,000 new people coming into the job market every month,” he said. “It’s a tough situation.”
“It’s not going to change until it’s clear that the economy is working close to its full potential,” said investment adviser Cronje.
The U.S. economy grew at a slack 1.7 percent annual rate in the April-June quarter, the Commerce Department said last month (*editor note: this was downsized to 1.3% on 9/27/12). Economists expect more slow growth in the second half of the year.
Cronje said companies big and small are worried about the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November. They also worry about whether Congress will be able to avoid political gridlock that could lead to federal budget cuts and tax increases that could trip up already weak economic growth.
Flush with cash
Cash reserves at Georgia’s 15 largest public companies grew more than 70 percent over the last five years as firms reaped profits from running lean and holding off on hiring.
Year….. Total Cash Reserves
2Q 2012….. $41.7 billion
2Q 2011….. $36.4 billion
2Q 2010….. $31.1 billion
2Q 2009….. $27.2 billion
2Q 2008….. $20.7 billion
2Q 2007….. $24.2 billion
*Source: Bloomberg, staff research
Cash Reserves at Georgia’s Largest Firms
Georgia’s Fortune 500 companies hold a total of nearly $42 billion in cash, short-term investments and other reserves. Here’s a breakdown*:
|
Company |
Cash Total 2Q 2012 |
% Change Since 2007 |
|
|
|
|
|
Home Depot |
$2,800,000,000 |
|
|
UPS |
$7,300,000,000 |
245% |
|
Coca-Cola |
$17,000,000,000 |
147% |
|
Delta Air Lines |
$3,500,000,000 |
3.5% |
|
Aflac |
$2,100,000,000 |
52% |
|
Southern Co |
$659,000,000 |
290% |
|
Genuine Parts |
$172,000,000 |
|
|
First Data |
$483,000,000 |
|
|
SunTrust Banks |
$5,800,000,000 |
36% |
|
AGCO |
$393,000,000 |
71% |
|
Coca-Cola Enterprises |
$422,000,000 |
138% |
|
Newell Rubbermaid |
$371,000,000 |
128% |
|
Mohawk Industries |
$319,000,000 |
453% |
|
NCR Corp |
$377,000,000 |
|
|
Rock-Tenn |
$35,000,000 |
201% |
*Source: Bloomberg, staff research
Kelly Services Survey Results: Job Changes Key to Career Growth
September 25 2012
More than one-in-three respondents (43%) to the global workforce index survey by Kelly Services Inc. (NASD: KELYA) said they believe changing jobs is more important than remaining with their existing employer when it comes to developing their skills and advancing their careers.
Other survey highlights include:
- 63% said that if they did change jobs, they would be in a good position to negotiate a similar or better position.
- 60% said experience with multiple employers is an asset in their career development.
- 36% admitted that they actively look for new jobs, even when happy in their current ones.
- Only 22% believe they will have the chance to progress or gain a promotion at their current employer in the next year.
- Half of those surveyed believe that their current employer is not realizing their full potential.
The global workforce index survey is an annual look at opinions about work and the workplace from a generational viewpoint. Approximately 170,000 people in 30 countries participated in the survey, including about 20,000 in the United States
Small & Mid-sized Companies account for 89.5% of total job growth in September!
Every month, when I read the new ADP National Employment Report*, I am reminded of the job creation impact that small and mid-sized companies have on our economy. This month’s report, covering September 2012 employment, was no exception.
*Re: BLS and ADP; trying to reconcile government reports with private industry reports is a bit of a challenge—especially when Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, processes it’s info in a different time frame (12th of the month) and pulls from roughly 344,000 business clients representing more than 21,000,000 US employees. So, it’s a little bit like comparing apples with oranges. At the best, the ADP report has a mixed track record at presaging the government’s monthly report. That being said…
On October 3rd, ADP reported that employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 162,000 from August to September on a seasonally adjusted basis. This was down by 27,000 from the previous month which was revised down by 12,000 to an increase of 189,000 (not the 201,000 that was reported last month). The June to July increase was reduced by 17,000 to an increase of 156,000.
Employment in the private, service-providing sector expanded 144,000 in September, down from 175,000 (revised down from the 185,000 reported last month) in August. Employment in the private, goods-producing sector added 18,000 jobs in September, up from 16,000 jobs in August and from 15,000 in July. Manufacturing employment rose 4,000 this month, following an increase of 3,000 in August.
Construction employment rose for the fourth consecutive month, adding 10,000 jobs (as it did last month), marking the best reading since March when mild winter weather was boosting construction activity.
The financial services sector added 7,000 in September (down from 8,000 jobs from July to August), marking the fourteenth consecutive monthly gain.
But here is the real good news for those of you who include small and mid-sized companies in your specialty niches (as I strongly recommend):
In September…
Small business (those with up to 49 employees) payrolls rose +81,000, down from the 99,000 jobs created among small businesses last month.
Medium business (50-499 employees) payrolls rose +64,000, down from 86,000 jobs created in August. Of the 64,000 jobs created on medium-sized payrolls, 10,000 jobs were created by the goods-producing sector and 54,000 jobs were created by the service-providing sector.
Large business (500+ employees) payrolls increased by +17,000. This is an increase from 16,000 in August, but a decrease from +23,000 in July. This is an increase from +12,000 in June. This follows increases of +9,000 in May, +4,000 in April, +22,000 in March, +20,000 in February, +20,000 in January, +37,000 in December and +12,000 in November and follows declines in October of and in September of .
So, the combined small and medium-sized company employment growth of +145,000 (down from 185,000 in August) accounted for a strong 89.5% of the total 162,000 (down from 201,000 in August, down from 163,000 in July and 176,000 in June, up from 133,000 in May and 119,000 in April, but down from 209,000 in March and from 216,000 in February) job growth in September, 2012.
Here are the recent monthly past percentages of combined small and medium-sized company job growth in relation to total job growth:
August 2012 92.0%
July 2012 85.9%
June 2012 93.8%
May 2012 93.2%
April 2012 96.6%
March 2012 89.5%
February 2012 90.7%
January 2012 98.2%
December 2011 88.6%
Bottom-line: To my audience of recruiters, always remember this: Our ‘bread and butter’, especially on the contingency side of the house, has historically been, and continues to be, small and medium-sized client companies. Along with the large companies, these companies need to be in your marketing mix!
Job Openings and Structural Unemployment
On September 11th, the BLS reported that there were 3,700,000 job openings on the last business day of July—a decrease from the 3,800,000 job openings announced for the last business day of June. (The next BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey results for August 2012 are scheduled to be released on October 10th). The 3,700,000 reflects published openings comprised of jobs that are advertised either online or in print format.
As we recruiters know, that 3,700,000 number only represents 20% of the jobs currently available in the marketplace. The other 80% of job openings are unpublished and are filled through networking or word of mouth or by using a RECRUITER. So, those 3,700,000 published job openings now become a total of 18,500,000 published and hidden job orders.
In September there were 12,088,000 unemployed workers. What was the main reason why those job openings were open? Two Words: Structural Unemployment. If we can’t figure out how to educate and/or reeducate those 12,088,000 unemployed, then they will keep reappearing each month as a BLS unemployment statistic—as they have. In the meantime, our recruitment marketplace flourishes!
The number of jobs advertised online in the United States increased by 128,600 in September to approximately 4.8 million, according to a report released October 3 by The Conference Board. The increase follows a loss of 262,300 in July and August.
The average monthly gain in 2012 is 55,000 with a sharp gain in sales occupations in September. Following a strong increase of 625,000 in the first half of 2012, the third quarter finished down 134,000.
“The September rise was welcome news, especially the strong gain for sales staff and managers, which made up almost one third of the increase,” said June Shelp, vice president at The Conference Board. “Occupations commonly associated with building (Construction and Building and Grounds Maintenance) also rose a combined 8,900 in September as employers had to replace or add workers. In 2012, the average monthly increase has been 55,000 and 48 of the 50 states (all but Vermont and Wyoming) are showing gains.”
The September BLS Analysis
The unemployment rate is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a division of the US Department of Labor. The rate is found by dividing the number of unemployed by the total civilian labor force. On October 5th, 2012, the BLS published the most recent unemployment rate for September, 2012 of 7.8% (actually it is 7.796 down .315 from 8.111, in August, 2012). This is the first time it has been below 8% in 43 months.
The unemployment rate was determined by dividing the unemployed of 12,088,000 (down from the month before by 456,000—since September, 2011 (one year ago), this number has decreased by 1,809,000) by the total civilian labor force of 155,063,000 (up by 418,000 from August, 2012). Since September 2011, our total civilian labor force has increased by 1,059,000 people.
(The continuing ‘Strange BLS Math’ saga): The BLS continues to increase the total Civilian Working Population—this time up to 243,772,000; up from August by 206,000; up from July by 212,000; up from June by 199,000; up from May by 189,000; up from April by 182,000; up from March by 180,000; up from February by 169,000; up from January by 335,000; and up from December by 2,020,000. And this month they have slightly increased the Civilian Labor Force to 155,063,000 (up from August by 418,000).
Subtract the second number from the first number and you get 88,709,000 ‘Not in Labor Force’. That is an increase of 2,012,000 ‘Not in Labor Force’ since December 2011—9 months ago. In one year’s time, since September 2011, 2,643,000 US workers have vanished! Where did those 2,643,000 potential workers disappear to? That’s approximately 8.4% of the entire US population of 314,519,672. I am assuming they still have to eat and pay their rent. They still need money, don’t they?
Because of these new numbers, our Employment Participation Rate—the population 16 years and older working or seeking work—has risen slightly to 63.6% (1/10th higher than August’s historic low level) and tying April 2012’s low rate. This is the second lowest Employment Participation Rate recorded since September 1981! Final take on these numbers: Fewer people looking for work will always bring down the unemployment rate).
This one year historical ‘look back’ chart explains these phenomena:
|
Mo/Yr |
Not in Labor Force |
Change from prior month |
Participation Rate |
Change from prior month |
|
9/12 |
88,710,000 |
|
63.6% |
+.1% |
|
8/12 |
88,921,000 |
+581,000 |
63.5% |
|
|
7/12 |
88,340,000 |
+348,000 |
63.7% |
|
|
6/12 |
87,992,000 |
+34,000 |
63.8% |
No change |
|
5/12 |
87,958,000 |
|
63.8% |
+.2% |
|
4/12 |
88,419,000 |
+522,000 |
63.6% |
|
|
3/12 |
87,897,000 |
+333,000 |
63.8% |
|
|
2/12 |
87,564,000 |
|
63.9% |
+.2% |
|
1/12 |
87,874,000 |
+1,177,000 |
63.7% |
|
|
12/11 |
86,697,000 |
+194,000 |
64.0% |
No change |
|
11/11 |
86,503,000 |
+290,000 |
64.0% |
|
|
10/11 |
86,213,000 |
+146,000 |
64.1% |
No change |
|
9/11 |
86,067,000 |
|
64.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Totals |
|
2,643,000 |
|
|
(The continuing ‘Strange BLS Math’ saga—Part II): If we add those 2,643,000 workers who have mysteriously disappeared over the last year to the current unemployed ranks of 12,088,000 then we get a grand total of 14,731,000. Now, divide those unemployed/’missing in actions’ by the total civilian labor force and we get a real unemployment rate of 9.5%…and I’m not even including the underemployed.
(The continuing ‘Strange BLS Math’ saga—Part III): In September, the BLS reported that the Civilian labor force grew by 418,000, yet the unemployed decreased by 456,000. What happened to those 38,000 workers who were not included in the new labor force numbers? Just asking…
(The continuing ‘Strange BLS Math’ saga—Part IV): In September, the BLS reported that the number of unemployed workers fell by 456,000. And they reported that a modest 114,000 jobs were created. So, what happened to those leftover 342,000 workers who are no longer unemployed??
Anyway, back to the point I am trying to make. On the surface, these new unemployment rates are scary, but let’s look a little deeper and consider some other numbers.
The unemployment rate includes all types of workers—construction workers, government workers, etc. We recruiters, on the other hand, mainly place management, professional and related types of workers. That unemployment rate in September fell dramatically to 3.9% (this rate is down from last month’s 4.5% and the previous month’s 4.8%). Or, you can look at it another way. We usually place people who have college degrees. That unemployment rate in September remained at 4.1% (this rate is the same as the last three month’s 4.1%).
Now stay with me a little longer. This gets better. It’s important to understand (and none of the pundits mention this) that the unemployment rate, for many reasons, will never be 0%, no matter how good the economy is. Without boring you any more than I have already, let me add here that Milton Friedman (the renowned Nobel Prize-winning economist), is famous for the theory of the “natural rate of unemployment” (or the term he preferred, NAIRU, which is the acronym for Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment). Basically, this theory states that full employment presupposes an ‘unavoidable and acceptable’ unemployment rate of somewhere between 4-6% with it. Economists often settle on 5%, although the “New Normal Unemployment Rate” has been suggested to fall at 6.7%.
Nevertheless (if you will allow me to apply a ‘macro’ concept to a ‘micro’ issue), if this rate is applied to our main category of Management, Professional and Related types of potential recruits, and/or our other main category of College-Degreed potential recruits, we find no unemployment! None! Zilch!
THE IMPORTANCE OF GDP
“The economic goal of any nation, as of any individual, is to get the greatest results with the least effort. The whole economic progress of mankind has consisted in getting more production with the same labor…Translated into national terms, this first principle means that our real objective is to maximize production. In doing this, full employment—that is, the absence of involuntary idleness—becomes a necessary by-product. But production is the end, employment merely the means. We cannot continuously have the fullest production without full employment. But we can very easily have full employment without full production.”
—Economics in One Lesson, by Henry Hazlitt, Chapter X, “The Fetish of Full Employment”
On September 27th, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the “third” estimate of our GDP number for the second quarter of 2012 had moved down from 1.7% to 1.3%. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.0%. The economy needs to expand at about 3% just to keep the unemployment rate from rising.
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR UNEMPLOYMENT EVER TO BE ZERO
‘Unemployment’ is an emotional ‘trigger’ word. It conjures up negative thoughts. But it is important to realize that, while we want everyone who wants a job to have the opportunity to work, unemployment can never be zero and, in fact, can be disruptive to an economy if it gets too close to zero. Very low unemployment can actually hurt the economy by creating an upward pressure on wages which invariably leads to higher production costs and prices. This can lead to inflation. The lowest the unemployment rate has been in the US was 2.5%. That was in May and June 1953 when the economy overheated due to the Korean War. When this bubble burst, it kicked off the Recession of 1953. A healthy economy will always include some percentage of unemployment.
There are five main sources of unemployment:
1. Cyclical (or demand-deficient) unemployment – This type of unemployment fluctuates with the business cycle. It rises during a recession and falls during the subsequent recovery. Workers who are most affected by this type of unemployment are laid off during a recession when production volumes fall and companies use lay-offs as the easiest way to reduce costs. These workers are usually rehired, some months later, when the economy improves.
2. Frictional unemployment – This comes from the normal turnover in the labor force. This is where new workers are entering the workforce and older workers are retiring and leaving vacancies to be filled by the new workers or those re-entering the workforce. This category includes workers who are between jobs.
3. Structural unemployment – This happens when the skills possessed by the unemployed worker don’t match the requirements of the opening—whether those be in characteristics and skills or in location. This can come from new technology or foreign competition (e.g., foreign outsourcing). This type of unemployment usually lasts longer than frictional unemployment because retraining, and sometimes relocation, is involved. Occasionally jobs in this category can just disappear overseas.
4. Seasonal unemployment – This happens when the workforce is affected by the climate or time of year. Construction workers and agricultural workers aren’t needed as much during the winter season because of the inclement weather. On the other hand, retail workers experience an increase in hiring shortly before, and during, the holiday season, but can be laid off shortly thereafter.
5. Surplus unemployment – This is caused by minimum wage laws and unions. When wages are set at a higher level, unemployment can often result. Why? To keep within the same payroll budget, the company must let go of some workers to pay the remaining workers a higher salary.
Other factors influencing the unemployment rate:
1. Length of unemployment – Some studies indicate that an important factor influencing a workers decision to accept a new job is directly related to the length of the unemployment benefit they are receiving. In early 2009, eligibility for unemployment benefits was extended from 26 weeks to as much as 99 weeks. Studies suggest that this reduces the incentive of the unemployed to seek and accept less desirable jobs.
2. Changes in GDP – Since hiring workers takes time, the improvement in the unemployment rate usually lags behind the improvement in the GDP.
WHERE RECRUITERS PLACE
Now back to the issue at hand, namely the recruiting, and placing, of professionals and those with college degrees.
If you take a look at the past few years of unemployment in the September “management, professional and related” types of worker category, you will find the following rates:
September 2011 4.4%
September 2010 4.4%
September 2009 5.2%
September 2008 2.8%
September 2007 2.1%
September 2006 2.1%
September 2005 2.3%
September 2004 2.5%
September 2003 3.2%
September 2002 3.3%
Here are the rates, during those same time periods, for “college-degreed” workers:
September 2011 4.2%
September 2010 4.5%
September 2009 4.9%
September 2008 2.6%
September 2007 2.0%
September 2006 2.0%
September 2005 2.4%
September 2004 2.6%
September 2003 3.2%
September 2002 2.9%
So, while September’s 2012 rates for these two categories, at 3.9% and 4.1% respectively, are not huge when looking at the big picture, it’s not anything to be very happy about either—especially when we see how well we had it during the 2002-2008 time frame. But regardless, these unemployment numbers usually include a good number of job hoppers, job shoppers and rejects. We, on the other hand, are engaged by our client companies to find those candidates who are happy, well-appreciated, making good money and currently working and we entice them to move for even better opportunities—especially where new technologies are expanding. This will never change. And that is why, no matter the unemployment rate, we still need to market to find the best job orders and we still need to recruit to find the best candidates.
Below are the numbers for the over 25 year olds:
Less that H.S. diploma – Unemployment Rate
|
12/08 |
|
10.9% |
|
1/09 |
2/09 |
3/09 |
4/09 |
5/09 |
6/09 |
7/09 |
8/09 |
9/09 |
10/09 |
11/09 |
12/09 |
|
12.0% |
12.6% |
13.3% |
14.8% |
15.5% |
15.5% |
15.4% |
15.6% |
15.0% |
15.5% |
15.0% |
15.3% |
|
1/10 |
2/10 |
3/10 |
4/10 |
5/10 |
6/10 |
7/10 |
8/10 |
9/10 |
10/10 |
11/10 |
12/10 |
|
15.2% |
15.6% |
14.5% |
14.7% |
15.0% |
14.1% |
13.8% |
14.0% |
15.4% |
15.3% |
15.7% |
15.3% |
|
1/11 |
2/11 |
3/11 |
4/11 |
5/11 |
6/11 |
7/11 |
8/11 |
9/11 |
10/11 |
11/11 |
12/11 |
|
14.2% |
13.9% |
13.7% |
14.6% |
14.7% |
14.3% |
15.0% |
14.3% |
14.0% |
13.8% |
13.2% |
13.8% |
|
1/12 |
2/12 |
3/12 |
4/12 |
5/12 |
6/12 |
7/12 |
8/12 |
9/12 |
|
13.1% |
12.9% |
12.6% |
12.5% |
13.0% |
12.6% |
12.7% |
12.0% |
11.3% |
H.S. Grad; no college – Unemployment Rate
|
12/08 |
|
7.7% |
|
1/09 |
2/09 |
3/09 |
4/09 |
5/09 |
6/09 |
7/09 |
8/09 |
9/09 |
10/09 |
11/09 |
12/09 |
|
8.1% |
8.3% |
9.0% |
9.3% |
10.0% |
9.8% |
9.4% |
9.7% |
10.8% |
11.2% |
10.4% |
10.5% |
|
1/10 |
2/10 |
3/10 |
4/10 |
5/10 |
6/10 |
7/10 |
8/10 |
9/10 |
10/10 |
11/10 |
12/10 |
|
10.1% |
10.5% |
10.8% |
10.6% |
10.9% |
10.8% |
10.1% |
10.3% |
10.0% |
10.1% |
10.0% |
9.8% |
|
1/11 |
2/11 |
3/11 |
4/11 |
5/11 |
6/11 |
7/11 |
8/11 |
9/11 |
10/11 |
11/11 |
12/11 |
|
9.4% |
9.5% |
9.5% |
9.7% |
9.5% |
10.0% |
9.3% |
9.6% |
9.7% |
9.6% |
8.8% |
8.7% |
|
1/12 |
2/12 |
3/12 |
4/12 |
5/12 |
6/12 |
7/12 |
8/12 |
9/12 |
|
8.4% |
8.3% |
8.0% |
7.9% |
8.1% |
8.4% |
8.7% |
8.8% |
8.7% |
Some College; or AA/AS – Unemployment Rate
|
12/08 |
|
5.6% |
|
1/09 |
2/09 |
3/09 |
4/09 |
5/09 |
6/09 |
7/09 |
8/09 |
9/09 |
10/09 |
11/09 |
12/09 |
|
6.2% |
7.0% |
7.2% |
7.4% |
7.7% |
8.0% |
7.9% |
8.2% |
8.5% |
9.0% |
9.0% |
9.0% |
|
1/10 |
2/10 |
3/10 |
4/10 |
5/10 |
6/10 |
7/10 |
8/10 |
9/10 |
10/10 |
11/10 |
12/10 |
|
8.5% |
8.0% |
8.2% |
8.3% |
8.3% |
8.2% |
8.3% |
8.7% |
9.1% |
8.5% |
8.7% |
8.1% |
|
1/11 |
2/11 |
3/11 |
4/11 |
5/11 |
6/11 |
7/11 |
8/11 |
9/11 |
10/11 |
11/11 |
12/11 |
|
8.0% |
7.8% |
7.4% |
7.5% |
8.0% |
8.4% |
8.3% |
8.2% |
8.4% |
8.3% |
7.6% |
7.7% |
|
1/12 |
2/12 |
3/12 |
4/12 |
5/12 |
6/12 |
7/12 |
8/12 |
9/12 |
|
7.2% |
7.3% |
7.5% |
7.6% |
7.9% |
7.5% |
7.1% |
6.6% |
6.5% |
BS/BS + – Unemployment Rate
|
12/08 |
|
3.7% |
|
1/09 |
2/09 |
3/09 |
4/09 |
5/09 |
6/09 |
7/09 |
8/09 |
9/09 |
10/09 |
11/09 |
12/09 |
|
3.8% |
4.1% |
4.3% |
4.4% |
4.8% |
4.7% |
4.7% |
4.7% |
4.9% |
4.7% |
4.9% |
5.0% |
|
1/10 |
2/10 |
3/10 |
4/10 |
5/10 |
6/10 |
7/10 |
8/10 |
9/10 |
10/10 |
11/10 |
12/10 |
|
4.9% |
5.0% |
4.9% |
4.9% |
4.7% |
4.4% |
4.5% |
4.6% |
4.4% |
4.7% |
5.1% |
4.8% |
|
1/11 |
2/11 |
3/11 |
4/11 |
5/11 |
6/11 |
7/11 |
8/11 |
9/11 |
10/11 |
11/11 |
12/11 |
|
4.2% |
4.3% |
4.4% |
4.5% |
4.5% |
4.4% |
4.3% |
4.3% |
4.2% |
4.4% |
4.4% |
4.1% |
|
1/12 |
2/12 |
3/12 |
4/12 |
5/12 |
6/12 |
7/12 |
8/12 |
9/12 |
|
4.2% |
4.2% |
4.2% |
4.0% |
3.9% |
4.1% |
4.1% |
4.1% |
4.1% |
Management, Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate
|
12/08 |
|
3.3% |
|
1/09 |
2/09 |
3/09 |
4/09 |
5/09 |
6/09 |
7/09 |
8/09 |
9/09 |
10/09 |
11/09 |
12/09 |
|
4.1% |
3.9% |
4.2% |
4.0% |
4.6% |
5.0% |
5.5% |
5.4% |
5.2% |
4.7% |
4.6% |
4.6% |
|
1/10 |
2/10 |
3/10 |
4/10 |
5/10 |
6/10 |
7/10 |
8/10 |
9/10 |
10/10 |
11/10 |
12/10 |
|
5.0% |
4.8% |
4.7% |
4.5% |
4.5% |
4.9% |
5.0% |
5.1% |
4.4% |
4.5% |
4.7% |
4.6% |
|
1/11 |
2/11 |
3/11 |
4/11 |
5/11 |
6/11 |
7/11 |
8/11 |
9/11 |
10/11 |
11/11 |
12/11 |
|
4.7% |
4.4% |
4.3% |
4.0% |
4.4% |
4.7% |
5.0% |
4.9% |
4.4% |
4.4% |
4.2% |
4.2% |
|
1/12 |
2/12 |
3/12 |
4/12 |
5/12 |
6/12 |
7/12 |
8/12 |
9/12 |
|
4.3% |
4.2% |
4.2% |
3.7% |
4.0% |
4.4% |
4.8% |
4.5% |
3.9% |
Or employed…(,000)
|
12/08 |
|
52,548 |
|
1/09 |
2/09 |
3/09 |
4/09 |
5/09 |
6/09 |
7/09 |
8/09 |
9/09 |
10/09 |
11/09 |
12/09 |
|
52,358 |
52,196 |
52,345 |
52,597 |
52,256 |
51,776 |
51,810 |
51,724 |
52,186 |
52,981 |
52,263 |
52,131 |
|
1/10 |
2/10 |
3/10 |
4/10 |
5/10 |
6/10 |
7/10 |
8/10 |
9/10 |
10/10 |
11/10 |
12/10 |
|
52,159 |
52,324 |
52,163 |
52,355 |
51,839 |
51,414 |
50,974 |
50,879 |
51,757 |
51,818 |
52,263 |
51,704 |
|
1/11 |
2/11 |
3/11 |
4/11 |
5/11 |
6/11 |
7/11 |
8/11 |
9/11 |
10/11 |
11/11 |
12/11 |
|
51,866 |
52,557 |
53,243 |
53,216 |
52,778 |
52,120 |
51,662 |
51,997 |
52,665 |
52,864 |
52,787 |
52,808 |
|
1/12 |
2/12 |
3/12 |
4/12 |
5/12 |
6/12 |
7/12 |
8/12 |
9/12 |
|
53,152 |
53,208 |
53,771 |
54,055 |
54,156 |
53,846 |
53,165 |
53,696 |
54,655 |
And unemployed…(,000)
|
12/08 |
|
1,802 |
|
1/09 |
2/09 |
3/09 |
4/09 |
5/09 |
6/09 |
7/09 |
8/09 |
9/09 |
10/09 |
11/09 |
12/09 |
|
2,238 |
2,137 |
2,292 |
2,164 |
2,373 |
2,720 |
3,034 |
2,925 |
2,859 |
2,593 |
2,530 |
2,509 |
|
1/10 |
2/10 |
3/10 |
4/10 |
5/10 |
6/10 |
7/10 |
8/10 |
9/10 |
10/10 |
11/10 |
12/10 |
|
2,762 |
2,637 |
2,600 |
2,464 |
2,450 |
2,644 |
2,687 |
2,762 |
2,381 |
2,417 |
2,525 |
2,468 |
|
1/11 |
2/11 |
3/11 |
4/11 |
5/11 |
6/11 |
7/11 |
8/11 |
9/11 |
10/11 |
11/11 |
12/11 |
|
2,557 |
2,435 |
2,381 |
2,196 |
2,419 |
2,598 |
2,742 |
2,671 |
2,450 |
2,410 |
2,336 |
2,303 |
|
1/12 |
2/12 |
3/12 |
4/12 |
5/12 |
6/12 |
7/12 |
8/12 |
9/12 |
|
2,410 |
2,336 |
2,330 |
2,062 |
2,275 |
2,472 |
2,666 |
2,556 |
2,245 |
For a total Management, Professional & Related workforce of…(,000)
|
12/08 |
|
54,350 |
|
1/09 |
2/09 |
3/09 |
4/09 |
5/09 |
6/09 |
7/09 |
8/09 |
9/09 |
10/09 |
11/09 |
12/09 |
|
54,596 |
54,333 |
54,637 |
54,761 |
54,629 |
54,496 |
54,844 |
54,649 |
55,045 |
55,574 |
54,793 |
54,640 |
|
1/10 |
2/10 |
3/10 |
4/10 |
5/10 |
6/10 |
7/10 |
8/10 |
9/10 |
10/10 |
11/10 |
12/10 |
|
54,921 |
54,961 |
54,763 |
54,819 |
54,289 |
54,058 |
53,661 |
53,641 |
54,138 |
54,235 |
54,788 |
54,172 |
|
1/11 |
2/11 |
3/11 |
4/11 |
5/11 |
6/11 |
7/11 |
8/11 |
9/11 |
10/11 |
11/11 |
12/11 |
|
54,423 |
54,992 |
55,624 |
55,412 |
55,197 |
54,718 |
54,404 |
54,668 |
55,115 |
55,274 |
55,123 |
55,111 |
|
1/12 |
2/12 |
3/12 |
4/12 |
5/12 |
6/12 |
7/12 |
8/12 |
9/12 |
|
55,562 |
55,544 |
56,101 |
56,117 |
56,431 |
56,318 |
55,831 |
56,252 |
56,900 |
Management, Business and Financial Operations – Unemployment Rate
|
12/08 |
|
3.9% |
|
1/09 |
2/09 |
3/09 |
4/09 |
5/09 |
6/09 |
7/09 |
8/09 |
9/09 |
10/09 |
11/09 |
12/09 |
|
4.6% |
4.5% |
4.5% |
4.4% |
4.6% |
4.8% |
4.9% |
5.0% |
5.2% |
5.4% |
5.4% |
5.2% |
|
1/10 |
2/10 |
3/10 |
4/10 |
5/10 |
6/10 |
7/10 |
8/10 |
9/10 |
10/10 |
11/10 |
12/10 |
|
5.2% |
5.1% |
5.4% |
5.1% |
4.9% |
4.8% |
4.7% |
4.9% |
4.3% |
5.0% |
5.5% |
5.7% |
|
1/11 |
2/11 |
3/11 |
4/11 |
5/11 |
6/11 |
7/11 |
8/11 |
9/11 |
10/11 |
11/11 |
12/11 |
|
5.3% |
4.9% |
4.8% |
4.6% |
4.9% |
4.6% |
4.6% |
4.6% |
4.6% |
4.7% |
4.6% |
4.4% |
|
1/12 |
2/12 |
3/12 |
4/12 |
5/12 |
6/12 |
7/12 |
8/12 |
9/12 |
|
4.5% |
4.4% |
4.4% |
4.0% |
4.1% |
3.8% |
3.8% |
3.7% |
3.5% |
Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate
|
12/08 |
|
2.9% |
|
1/09 |
2/09 |
3/09 |
4/09 |
5/09 |
6/09 |
7/09 |
8/09 |
9/09 |
10/09 |
11/09 |
12/09 |
|
3.7% |
3.5% |
3.9% |
3.6% |
4.2% |
5.1% |
6.0% |
5.6% |
5.2% |
4.2% |
4.1% |
4.2% |
|
1/10 |
2/10 |
3/10 |
4/10 |
5/10 |
6/10 |
7/10 |
8/10 |
9/10 |
10/10 |
11/10 |
12/10 |
|
4.9% |
4.6% |
4.3% |
4.1% |
4.3% |
5.0% |
5.2% |
5.3% |
4.4% |
4.1% |
4.1% |
3.8% |
|
1/11 |
2/11 |
3/11 |
4/11 |
5/11 |
6/11 |
7/11 |
8/11 |
9/11 |
10/11 |
11/11 |
12/11 |
|
4.3% |
4.1% |
3.9% |
3.5% |
4.0% |
4.9% |
5.3% |
5.1% |
4.4% |
4.1% |
4.0% |
4.0% |
|
1/12 |
2/12 |
3/12 |
4/12 |
5/12 |
6/12 |
7/12 |
8/12 |
9/12 |
|
4.2% |
4.1% |
4.0% |
3.5% |
4.0% |
4.8% |
5.5% |
5.2% |
4.3% |
Sales & Related – Unemployment Rate
|
12/08 |
|
7.0% |
|
1/09 |
2/09 |
3/09 |
4/09 |
5/09 |
6/09 |
7/09 |
8/09 |
9/09 |
10/09 |
11/09 |
12/09 |
|
7.7% |
8.4% |
8.9% |
8.6% |
8.9% |
9.1% |
8.3% |
8.7% |
8.9% |
9.5% |
9.1% |
8.9% |
|
1/10 |
2/10 |
3/10 |
4/10 |
5/10 |
6/10 |
7/10 |
8/10 |
9/10 |
10/10 |
11/10 |
12/10 |
|
10.1% |
10.2% |
9.7% |
9.2% |
9.6% |
9.4% |
10.1% |
9.0% |
9.4% |
9.1% |
8.8% |
8.3% |
|
1/11 |
2/11 |
3/11 |
4/11 |
5/11 |
6/11 |
7/11 |
8/11 |
9/11 |
10/11 |
11/11 |
12/11 |
|
9.3% |
9.0% |
8.5% |
8.5% |
9.4% |
9.7% |
9.4% |
8.6% |
9.4% |
8.2% |
7.8% |
7.7% |
|
1/12 |
2/12 |
3/12 |
4/12 |
5/12 |
6/12 |
7/12 |
8/12 |
9/12 |
|
8.2% |
7.9% |
8.1% |
7.6% |
7.9% |
8.4% |
8.3% |
8.6% |
7.9% |