BLS Analysis for Recruiters – February 2024

By on March 8, 2024 in BLS Analysis

Bob Marshall’s February 2024 BLS Analysis for Recruiters; 3/8/24

February BLS Preface

TBMG Product & Training Updates:

Coaching Update

Top Echelon Presentation Update

*Top Echelon Expert Recruiter Coaching Series

New Presentation on

Tuesday, March 12th, 2023*

On March 12th at 1pm eastern, I will conduct my next FREE webinar in the Top Echelon Expert Recruiter Coaching Series.  These webinars cover some of the most critical issues currently facing our industry.  And mine especially deal with sharing the classic techniques from the big billers I have known over my now 44 year recruitment career. 

Well, for those of you who come to this edition of the Top Echelon Expert Recruiting Coaching Series (which is free!), I will have a brand-new presentation entitled, “Cultivating a Growth Mindset”, which will include:

So, come join me at this FREE webinar on Tuesday, March 12th, at 1pm EST and let’s explore these topics together!

Hope to see you there!

Product Update

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Please dedicate a moment to share your recruiting business insights with us.

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BLS Analysis for Recruiters

February Business Articles

Hiring Managers Forsee More Turnover, Cost Rising to $36,295

Daily News, February 28, 2024

About 33% of US hiring managers anticipate employee turnover at their company to increase in the next year, according to a report by Express Employment Professionals. In addition, HR managers anticipate an average turnover cost of $36,295 annually; more than 20% expect the cost to climb to $100,000 or higher.

For hiring managers anticipating increased turnover this year, 38% point to better pay and benefits offered elsewhere as a top factor, followed by increased workplace demands (35%) and employees resigning (33%).

“High turnover in the booming jobs market of the past few years has led to a strained workforce that is stressed and burned out,” Bill Stoller, CEO at Express Employment International, said in a press statement. “With data showing more employees are remaining in place, now is the perfect time to create retention tactics to stabilize headcount with top talent.”

The report also found that to counteract high turnover and give some reprieve to their employees, 88% of organizations are making plans to hire next year — a significant increase from 81% reported last year.

The survey was conducted by The Harris Poll on behalf of Express Employment Professionals between Oct. 31 and Nov. 10, 2023, among 1,007 US hiring decision-makers.

70% of Gen Z Either Freelancing or Considering it

Daily News, February 28, 2024

Nearly 70% of Gen Z globally are either actively freelancing or considering it in the future, according to a report released today by talent platform Fiverr International Ltd.

“The youngest members of today’s workforce, Gen Zers, have faced nothing but hurdles — a global pandemic and unprecedented development in technology,” Fiverr Chief Business Officer Gali Arnon said in a press release. “Now, in the face of layoffs and the implementation of AI across the corporate world, Gen Z workers are relying on themselves for the stability that they need to pursue their career ambitions by choosing freelancing.”

Fiverr defines Gen Z as individuals between the ages of 16 and 26.

The report found that 40% of Gen Z freelancers are currently or willing to work full time, while 30% are working in a part-time capacity.

For members of Gen Z, top priorities include comfort and financial security, with 44% desiring to be financially comfortable as part of their larger career ambition, while 20% aim to retire early.

Moreover, a quarter of those in Gen Z are interested in entrepreneurship, while 14% wish to freelance for their entire careers.

In the US alone, 38% of Gen Z believe that full-time freelancing protects them against layoffs, and nearly 36% view it as a backup plan in case of job loss.

Compared to 2023, more than 70% of US respondents are thinking more about freelancing, and 25% perceive it as more stable than traditional full-time employment.

Another important finding: 18% of Gen Z in the US believe freelancing makes them less susceptible to AI replacement.

Other findings in the report:

  • Nearly 20% of US members of Gen Z believe that companies have no loyalty to employees anymore, prompting almost 70% of freelancers aged between 16 and 20 to start freelancing.
  • In terms of work arrangement, 29% of US members of Gen Z desire full control over return-to-office policies, while 28% prefer a hybrid work environment and 25% aspire to entrepreneurship.
  • Concerning job security, 10% of respondents globally reported being laid off, and another 14% said they fear such circumstances.
  • Overall, nearly 30% of respondents wish for flexible work arrangements, including the ability to travel for work and work from anywhere.

The survey, conducted in partnership with Censuswide, includes responses from 10,033 members of Gen Z across the UK, US, Germany and France; more than 5,000 were from the US. The data was collected between Jan. 26 and Jan. 30.

More than Half of Workers Forced to Return to Office Plan to Change Jobs:  ResumeBuilder

Daily News, February 23, 2024

More than half of employees mandated to return to the office by their employers are searching for new jobs, according to a report by ResumeBuilder. Of those surveyed, 18% are currently looking for a new job, while 36% plan to look for one this year.

In addition, many of those currently searching for a new job are doing so actively. While 11% are applying to more than 10 positions per week, 28% are applying to 6 to 10 positions, and 60% are applying to 1 to 5 jobs.

Top reasons workers are searching for new job opportunities include a higher salary (70%), better benefits (56%) and more growth opportunities (50%).

“It’s abundantly clear that employees are looking for a greater degree of autonomy in determining how and where they work from,” Stacie Haller, chief career advisor at ResumeBuilder, said in a press statement. “Companies that prioritize aligning their practices with the preferences of their workforce are the ones successfully retaining talent. Those that do not are witnessing a surge in turnover rates.”

The report also found that 60% of employees want to work from the office less frequently than required. Of those who want to work fully remotely, 67% said they would be willing to take a pay cut.

ResumeBuilder surveyed 557 full-time US workers this month for the report.

Despite Pessimism, over a Third of Employees to Seek New Jobs

Daily News, February 14, 2024

While 37% of US employees are looking for a new job in 2024, only 28% believe there are more opportunities in their field than a year ago — down from 34% when asked a year ago, according to a survey by Express Employment Professionals.

Mixed feelings exist regarding the difficulty of landing a job, with 51% of job seekers deeming it easy and 49% considering it difficult. Still, 69% of job seekers believe it will take them six months or less to find a job, up from 62% in the previous survey.

The survey notes that while employed job seekers have been at their current company for an average of eight years, more than one-third are actively searching for a new job.

What is driving the searches for new jobs? Express’ survey found that 85% of job seekers had concerns about their current company. Top fears include not getting the salary increase/raise they deserve, 48%; changes in team structure, 29%; and risk of losing their job before finding a new one, 28%. Other fears include a slowdown in work opportunities because of the economy, never being promoted or the company reducing its workforce due to the economic climate.

“The good news for employers is quality talent is out there and ready to make a move if the circumstances are right,” Express Employment CEO Bill Stoller said in a press release. “While openings have decreased from their record high, it appears job seekers are still optimistic about securing positions in the next six months, hoping to connect them with the perfect opportunity.”

The online survey includes responses from 1,002 US adults. It was conducted from Nov. 9 to Nov. 26, 2023, by The Harris Poll on behalf of Express Employment Professionals.

Candidates Cite Job-Search Process Challenges

Daily News, February 12, 2024

‘Time to apply’ and ‘fatigue’ ranked among the top challenges for pursuing a new job, according to a study by CompTIA that included all types of roles.

The data comes from CompTIA’s Job Seeker Trends study, which included a survey that took place from Jan. 10 through Jan. 17 and included 1,001 job seekers.

Top challenges in pursuing a new job included:

  1. Time to apply for jobs, fill out applications, and participate in interviews
  2. Mental fatigue and stress of lengthy job searches
  3. Automated application systems that screen out candidates
  4. Balancing job searches with the demands of work or family
  5. Information overload with job boards and career sites
  6. Too many rounds of interviews
  7. Figuring out where/how to start job search strategy

CompTIA’s survey also asked about factors contributing to job seekers pursuing new employment. They were:

  1. Financial situation changed
  2. Stuck in a rut and wanting something new
  3. Burnout or stress
  4. Unhappy with current career trajectory
  5. Values or life priorities changed

Another finding: 67% of those seeking jobs know about AI, and 19% have used AI to review or enhance a résumé or cover letter, 14% have used it for interactive coaching and 14% have used it to automatically apply for jobs or manage applications.

Near-Term US Economic Outlook Improves, Forecasters Say

Daily News, February 9, 2024

The near-term economic outlook for the US looks better now than it did 3 months ago, according to a survey of 34 economists taking part in the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s First Quarter 2024 Survey of Professional Forecasters.

The US real gross domestic product is now estimated to grow at 2.1% in the first quarter, up from 0.8% in their previous estimation.

They also raised the number of new jobs the US is expected to create each month in the first quarter to 235,800, up from their previous forecast of 65,700.

Forecasters also lowered their estimate of the unemployment rate through the fourth quarter of this year.

In addition, forecasters reduced their estimate of a downturn in the economy this year to 17.3% from 40.9% in a previous estimate.

Top Execs Most Optimistic Since First Part of 2022

Daily News, February 8, 2024

The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence improved, rising to a level of 53 this quarter from 46 in the fourth quarter of 2023. The measure is now above 50, which reflects more positive than negative responses. It’s the first time the reading has been above 50 since the first quarter of 2022.

“CEOs are feeling better about the economy but remain cautious about risks ahead,” Roger Ferguson Jr., vice chairman of The Business Council and trustee of The Conference Board, said in a press statement. “In supplemental questions asked this quarter, CEOs overwhelmingly identified political uncertainty ahead of US elections (51%) as the greatest US challenge affecting businesses in 2024. Meanwhile, CEOs said the greatest global challenge affecting businesses this year is the spread of existing wars (46%).”

Among the findings of the first-quarter survey:

  • 32% of CEOs said economic conditions were better than six months ago, up from 18% in Q4. In addition, 22% said conditions were worse, down from 32% in the fourth quarter of 2023.
  • On the assessment of their industries, 31% of CEOs said their industries improved compared to six months ago, up from 27%. Conversely, 25% said conditions were worse, down from 37% in the previous quarter.
  • In addition, 36% of CEOs expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months, up from 19% in the previous quarter, while 27% expect conditions to worsen, down significantly from 47%.
  • More than one-third of CEOs, 35%, expect to expand their workforces over the next 12 months, down only slightly from 38% in the fourth quarter of 2023. However, 23% of CEOs expect to reduce their workforce, up from 13%. That said, 31% of CEOs reported problems attracting qualified workers, though only in key areas, similar to the 32% in the fourth-quarter survey. Only 15% report serious and widespread problems attracting qualified workers, unchanged from the fourth quarter.
  • 72% of CEOs expect to increase wages by 3% or more over the next year, edging up from 71% in Q4.

The survey included responses from 138 CEOs and was conducted between Jan. 16 and Jan. 29. 

Fewer Workers Planning to Switch Jobs: Robert Half

Daily News, February 6, 2024

Fewer workers are planning to switch jobs, according to a study released today by Robert Half Inc. Only 36% of US workers plan to seek a new job in the next 6 months, down from 49% when asked in July 2023.

Why are more workers staying? The top reason was their current job offers a level of flexibility that they aren’t willing to lose; this was cited by 44% of people surveyed. It was followed by those saying they were fulfilled in their current role at 42% and those who say they feel well compensated for their work at 37%.

“The churn in the labor market of the past few years has normalized,” Dawn Fay, operational president of Robert Half, said in a press release. “We’re now seeing workers pause and take stock of their careers as well as employers taking a more strategic approach to hiring.”

The percentage of workers likely to make a move fell across generations. While 55% of Gen Z said they were likely to make a move, that’s down from 74% who were asked the question in July 2023. Among baby boomers, only 13% were planning to make a move, down from 23% in the previous survey.

However, when asked about factors that might prompt them to look for a new position, 55% of workers cited higher salary, 36% reported better benefits and perks and 32% said a job with more remote flexibility than their current company offers.

Fay noted that while employers may have more leverage in today’s job market, they still face hiring challenges.

“Professionals who possess the desired skills to help boost company productivity, alleviate workloads and complete mission-critical projects are still in high demand,” she said. “Hiring managers should have a thoughtful plan in place so they are ready to compete for talent.”

The online survey firm includes responses from more than 1,275 adult workers in finance and accounting, technology, marketing and creative, legal, administrative and customer support and human resources at companies with 20 or more employees in the US. It was conducted from Oct. 27 to Nov. 17, 2023.

US Service Sector Activity Reaches 7-Month High

Daily News, February 5, 2024

Business activity in the US service sector accelerated to a seven-month high in January amid an increase in new orders, according to the S&P Global US Services PMI.

“The US service sector started the year in a sweet spot, with output and demand growth accelerating while price pressures cooled markedly,” Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a press release. “The key driver of faster growth was the financial services sector, where looser financial conditions tied to expectations of lower interest rates spurred greater activity in January. Households are also benefitting from loosened financial conditions, driving renewed growth in consumer-facing services.”

The S&P Global US Services PMI Business Activity Index rose to a reading of 52.5 in January from 51.4 in December 2023.

Williamson sees further improvement in February.

“Business optimism about growth prospects in the service sector has likewise jumped higher, encouraging further payroll growth, albeit the latter limited by labor shortages,” he said.

Price pressures have also shifted lower.

“Overall service sector input cost growth is now running at the second lowest for over three years, helping pull selling price growth across goods and services down to a level consistent with inflation dropping materially below the Federal Reserve’s 2% target in the near future,” Williamson said.

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 140,000 Jobs in February; Over 57% of the New Job Creation (82,000) came from Small & Medium Establishments; Annual Pay was Up 5.1%

ROSELAND, N.J. – March 6, 2024

Private sector employment increased by 140,000 jobs in February and annual pay was up 5.1% year-over-year, according to the February ADP® National Employment Report TM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”).

The ADP National Employment Report is an independent measure and high-frequency view of the private-sector labor market based on actual, anonymized payroll data of more than 25,000,000 U.S. employees. The jobs report and pay insights use ADP’s fine-grained anonymized and aggregated payroll data to provide a representative picture of the private-sector labor market.

The report details the current month’s total private employment change, and weekly job data from the previous month. Because the underlying ADP payroll databases are continuously updated, the report provides a high frequency, near real-time measure of U.S. employment. This measure reflects the number of employees on ADP client payrolls (Payroll Employment) to provide a richer understanding of the labor market. ADP’s pay measure uniquely captures the earnings of a cohort of almost 10,000,000 employees over a 12-month period.

*Sum of components may not equal total, due to rounding. The January total of jobs added was revised from 107,000 to 111,000.

“Job gains remain solid. Pay gains are trending lower but are still above inflation,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “In short, the labor market is dynamic, but doesn’t tip the scales in terms of a Fed rate decision this year.”

JOBS REPORT

Private employers added 140,000 jobs in February.  While employment growth remained steady, pay gains for job-changers accelerated for the first time in more than a year, rising to 7.6% from 7.2%.

Change in U.S. Private Employment: 140,000

Change by Industry Sector

Goods-producing: 30,000

Natural resources/mining <-4,000>

Construction 28,000

Manufacturing 6,000

Service-providing: 110,000

Trade/transportation/utilities 24,000

Information <-2,000>

Financial activities 17,000

Professional/business services 5,000

Education/health services 11,000

Leisure/hospitality 41,000

Other services 14,000

Change by U.S. Regions

Northeast: 20,000

New England 6,000

Middle Atlantic 14,000

Midwest: 39,000

East North Central 32,000

West North Central 7,000

South: 37,000

South Atlantic 35,000

East South Central <-13,000>

West South Central 15,000

West: 42,000

Mountain 7,000

Pacific 35,000

Change by Establishment Size

Small establishments: 13,000

1-19 employees 11,000

20-49 employees 2,000

Medium establishments: 69,000

50-249 employees 53,000

250-499 employees 16,000

Large establishments: 61,000

500+ employees 61,000

PAY INSIGHTS

Pay gains for job-changers rose in February.  For job-changers, year-over-year pay gains were 7.6%, up from the prior month and the first increase since November 2022.

Pay gains for job-stayers continued to decelerate, reaching 5.1%, the smallest gain since August 2021.

Median Change in Annual Pay (ADP matched person sample)

Job-Stayers 5.1%

Job-Changers 7.6%

Median Change in Annual Pay for Job-Stayers by Industry Sector

Goods-producing:

Natural resources/mining 4.5%

Construction 5.5%

Manufacturing 4.8%

Service-providing:

Trade/transportation/utilities 4.6%

Information 4.8%

Financial activities 5.5%

Professional/business services 5.1%

Education/health services 5.7%

Leisure/hospitality 5.9%

Other services 5.5%

Median Change in Annual Pay for Job-Stayers by Firm Size

Small firms:

1-19 employees 4.4%

20-49 employees 5.2%

Medium firms:

50-249 employees 5.4%

250-499 employees 5.3%

Large firms:

500+ employees 5.1%

The March 2024 ADP National Employment Report will be released at 8:15 a.m. ET on April 3, 2024.

Bottom-line:  To my audience of recruiters, always remember this:  Our ‘bread and butter’, especially on the contingency side of the house, has historically been, and continues to be, small and medium-sized client companies.  Along with the large companies, these companies need to be included in your niche!

Job Openings and Labor Turnover – January 2024

March 6, 2024

The number of job openings changed little at 8,900,000 on the last business day of January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5,700,000 and 5,300,000, respectively. Within separations, quits (3,400,000) and layoffs and discharges (1,600,000) changed little. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, and by

establishment size class. This release also includes 2023 annual estimates for job openings, hires, and separations.

Job Openings

On the last business day of January, the number of job openings changed little at 8,900,000; this measure is down from a series high of 12,200,000 in March 2022. Over the month, the rate was unchanged at 5.3%. In January, job openings increased in nondurable goods manufacturing (+82,000) but decreased in private educational services (-41,000).

Hires

In January, the number and rate of hires were little changed at 5,700,000 and 3.6%, respectively. Hires decreased in state and local government education (-37,000).

Separations

Total separations include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations include separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.

The number of total separations in January changed little at 5,300,000, and the rate was 3.4% for the third month in a row. Over the month, the number of total separations decreased in health care and social assistance (-86,000) and in federal government

(-8,000).

In January, the number and rate of quits were little changed at 3,400,000 million and 2.1%, respectively. The number of quits increased in information (+23,000) but decreased in real estate and rental and leasing (-16,000).

In January, the number of layoffs and discharges changed little at 1,600,000, and the rate was 1.0% for the third month in a row. The number of layoffs and discharges decreased in state and local government education (-19,000) but increased in mining and logging (+7,000).

The number of other separations was little changed in January at 384,000.

Establishment Size Class

In January, establishments with 1 to 9 employees saw little change in their job openings rate, hires rate, and total separations rate. The job openings rate decreased for establishments with 5,000 or more employees.

December 2023 Revisions

The number of job openings for December was revised down by 137,000 to 8,900,000, the number of hires was revised up by 166,000 to 5,800,000, and the number of total separations was revised up by 54,000 to 5,400,000. Within separations, the number of quits was revised up by 47,000 to 3,400,000 and the number of layoffs and discharges was revised down by 9,000 to 1,600,000. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published

estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors. The annual benchmark process also contributes to the December revisions.)

Annual Levels and Rates

Consistent with BLS practice, annual estimates are published for not seasonally adjusted data each year with the January news release. For details about how these estimates are calculated, see the technical note.

In 2023, the annual average job openings level was 9,400,000, a decrease of 1,800,000 from 2022. The annual average job openings rate was 5.7% in 2023, compared to 6.8% in 2022.

In 2023, the annual hires level was 71,000,000, a decrease of 5,800,000 from 2022. Annual total separations decreased by 4,200,000 in 2023 to 68,100,000. Annual quits decreased by 6,100,000 in 2023 to 44,400,000 and accounted for 65.2% of total separations. Annual layoffs and discharges increased by 2,100,000 in 2023 to 19,800,000 and accounted for 29.0% of total separations. Annual other separations decreased by 176,000 in 2023 to 3,900,000 and accounted for 5.8% of total separations.

The annual average hires rate for 2023 was 3.8%, down from 4.2% in 2022. The annual average total separations rate for 2023 was 3.6%, compared to 3.9% in 2022. The annual average rates for the components of total separations were 2.4% for quits, 1.1% for layoffs and discharges, and 0.2% for other separations.

___________

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey estimates for February 2024 are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, April 2, 2024, at 10:00 a.m. (ET).

As we recruiters know, that 8,900,000 number only represents 20% of the jobs currently available in the marketplace.  The other 80% of job openings are unpublished and are filled through networking or word of mouth or by using a RECRUITER.   So, those 8,900,000 published job openings now become a total of 44,500,000 published AND hidden job orders.

Online Labor Demand Decreases Slightly in January

February 13, 2024

The Conference Board−Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index fell in January 2024 to 150.7 (July 2018=100), down from an upwardly revised 152.0 in December. The 0.8 percent decrease between January and December followed a 1.1% increase between December and November. Overall, the Index is down 8.7% from one year ago.

The HWOL Index measures the change in advertised online job vacancies over time, reflecting monthly trends in employment opportunities across the US. The Help Wanted OnLine® Index is produced in collaboration with Lightcast, the global leader in real-time labor market data and analysis. This collaboration enhances the Help Wanted OnLine® program by providing additional insights into important labor market trends.

PROGRAM NOTES

Prior to 2020, The Conference Board constructed the HWOL Index based solely on online job ads over time. Using a methodology designed to reduce non-economic volatility contributed by online job sources, the HWOL Index served an effective measure of changes in labor demand over time.

Beginning January 2020, the HWOL Index was refined as an estimate of change in job openings (based on BLS JOLTS), using a series of econometric models which incorporate job ads with other macroeconomic indicators such as employment and aggregate hours worked. By adopting a modeled approach which combines other data sources with data on online job ads, the HWOL Index more accurately tracks important movements in the labor market.

The Conference Board-Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index measures changes over time in advertised online job vacancies, reflecting monthly trends in employment opportunities across the US. The HWOL Data Series aggregates the total number of ads available by month from the HWOL universe of online job ads. Ads in the HWOL universe are collected in real-time from over 50,000 online job domains including traditional job boards, corporate boards, social media sites, and smaller job sites that serve niche markets and smaller geographic areas.

Like The Conference Board’s long-running Help Wanted Advertising Index of print ads (which was published for over 55 years and discontinued in July 2008), Help Wanted OnLine® measures help wanted advertising—i.e. labor demand. The HWOL Data Series began in May 2005 and was revised in December 2018. With the December 2018 revision, The Conference Board released the HWOL Index, improving upon the HWOL Data Series’ ability to assess local labor market trends by reducing volatility and non-economic noise and improving correlation with local labor market conditions.

In 2019, Lightcast (formerly Emsi Burning Glass) joined the Help Wanted OnLine® program as the new sole provider of online job ad data for HWOL. With this partnership, the HWOL Data Series has been revised historically to reflect a new universe and methodology of online job advertisements and therefore cannot be used in conjunction with the pre-revised HWOL Data Series. The HWOL Data Series begins in January 2015 and the HWOL Index begins in December 2005. HWOL Index values prior to 2020 are based on job ads collected by CEB, Inc.

Those using this data are urged to review the information on the database and methodology available on The Conference Board website and contact us with questions and comments.


About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

About Lightcast

As the global leader in labor market analytics, Lightcast illuminates the future of work with data-driven talent strategies. Formerly Emsi Burning Glass, Lightcast finds purpose in sharing the insights that build communities, educators, and companies, and takes pride in knowing our work helps others find fulfillment, too. Headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts, and Moscow, Idaho, Lightcast is active in more than 30 countries and has offices in the United Kingdom, Italy, New Zealand, and India. Lightcast is backed by global private equity leader KKR.

The next release for February 2024 is Wednesday, March 13, 2024.

U-6 Update

In February 2024, the regular unemployment rate rose to 3.9% and the broader U-6 measure edged up to 7.3%.

The above 7.3% is referred to as the U-6 unemployment rate (found in the monthly BLS Employment Situation Summary, Table A-15; Table A-12 in 2008 and before).  It counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts “marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons.”  Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week.  And the “marginally attached workers” include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work.  The age considered for this calculation is 16 years and over.

Here is a look at the February U-6 numbers for the previous 21 years:

February                      2023                6.8%

February                      2022                7.2%

February                      2021                11.1%

February                      2020                7.0%

February                      2019                7.2%

February                      2018                8.2%

February                      2017                9.2%

February                      2016                9.8%

February                      2015                11.0%

February                      2014                12.6%

February                     2013                14.3%

February                      2012                15.0%

February                      2011                15.9%

February                      2010                16.8%

February                     2009                15.0%

February                      2008                9.0%

February                      2007                8.1%

February                      2006                8.4%

February                      2005                9.3%

February                      2004                9.7%

February                      2003                10.1%

The February 2024 BLS Analysis

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.  Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance and in transportation and warehousing.  This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys.  
 
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised down by 43,000, from +333,000 to +290,000, and the change for January was revised down by 124,000, from +353,000 to +229,000.  With these revisions, employment in December and January combined is 167,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)

The unemployment rate is also published by the BLS.  That rate is found by dividing the number of unemployed by the total civilian labor force.  On March 8th, 2024, the BLS published the most recent unemployment rate for February 2024 of 3.9% (actually, it is 3.857% up .196% from 3.661% in January.

The unemployment rate was determined by dividing the unemployed of 6,458,000

(–up from the month before by 334,000—since February 2023, this number has increased by 496,000) by the total civilian labor force of 167,426,000 (up by 150,000 from January 2024).  Since February 2023, our total civilian labor force has increased by 1,163,000 workers.

(The continuing ‘Strange BLS Math’ saga—after a detour in December 2016 when the BLS {for the first time in years} DECREASED the total Civilian Noninstitutional Population—this month the BLS again decreased this total to 267,711,000.  This is a increase of 171,000 from last month’s decrease of 451,000.  In one year, this population has increased by 1,599,000.  For the last 3 years the Civilian Noninstitutional Population has increased each month—except in December 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020 & January 2024—by…)

Up from January 2024by171,000
Down from December 2023by451,000
Up from November 2023by169,000
Up from October 2023by180,000
Up from September 2023by214,000
Up from August 2023by215,000
Up from July 2023by211,000
Up from June 2023by152,000
Up from May 2023by183,000
Up from April 2023by175,000
Up from March 2023by171,000
Up from February 2023by160,000
Up from January 2023by150,000
Up from December 2022by1,118,000
Up from November 2022by136,000
Up from October 2022by173,000
Up from September 2022by179,000
Up from August 2022by172,000
Up from July 2022by172,000
Up from June 2022by177,000
Up from May 2022by156,000
Up from April 2022by120,000
Up from March 2022by115,000
Up from February 2022by120,000
Up from January 2022by122,000
Up from December 2021by1,066,000
Up from November 2021by107,000
Up from October 2021by121,000
Up from September 2021by142,000
Up from August 2021by155,000
Up from July 2021by142,000
Up from June 2021by131,000
Up from May 2021by128,000
Up from April 2021by107,000
Up from March 2021by100,000
Up from February 2021by85,000
Up from January 2021by67,000

Subtract the ‘civilian labor force’ from the ‘civilian noninstitutional population’) and you get 100,285,000 ‘Not in Labor Force’—up by 20,000 from last month’s 100,265,000.  In one year, this NILF population has increased by 436,000.  The government tells us that most of these NILFs got discouraged and just gave up looking for a job.  My monthly recurring question is: “If that is the case, how do they survive when they don’t earn any money because they don’t have a job?  Are they ALL relying on the government to support them??”

This month, our Employment Participation Rate—the population 16 years and older working or seeking work—remained at 62.5%.  This rate is .1% higher than the historically low rate of 62.4% recorded in September 2015—and, before that, the rate recorded in October 1977—9 months into Jimmy Carter’s presidency—almost 40 years ago!

Final take on these numbers:  Fewer people looking for work will always bring down the unemployment rate.

Anyway, back to the point I am trying to make.  On the surface, these new unemployment

rates are scary, but let’s look a little deeper and consider some other numbers.

The unemployment rate includes all types of workers—construction workers, government workers, etc.  We recruiters, on the other hand, mainly place management, professional and related types of workers.  That unemployment rate in February was 2.2% (this rate was .1% above last month’s 2.1%).  Or you can look at it another way.  We usually place people who have college degrees.  That unemployment rate in February was 2.2% (this rate was .1% above last month’s 2.1%).

Now stay with me a little longer.  This gets better.  It’s important to understand (and none of the pundits mention this) that the unemployment rate, for many reasons, will never be 0%, no matter how good the economy is.  Without boring you any more than I have already, let me add here that Milton Friedman (the renowned Nobel Prize-winning economist), is famous for the theory of the “natural rate of unemployment” (or the term he preferred, NAIRU, which is the acronym for Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment).  Basically, this theory states that full employment presupposes an ‘unavoidable and acceptable’ unemployment rate of somewhere between 4-6% with it.  Economists often settle on 5%, although the “New Normal Unemployment Rate” has been suggested to fall at 6.7%.

Nevertheless (if you will allow me to apply a ‘macro’ concept to a ‘micro’ issue), if this rate is applied to our main category of Management, Professional and Related types of potential recruits, and/or our other main category of College-Degreed potential recruits,

we are well below the 4-6% threshold for full employment…we find no unemployment!  None!  Zilch!  A Big Goose Egg! 

THE IMPORTANCE OF GDP

“The economic goal of any nation, as of any individual, is to get the greatest results with the least effort.  The whole economic progress of mankind has consisted in getting more production with the same labor…Translated into national terms, this first principle means that our real objective is to maximize production.  In doing this, full employment—that is, the absence of involuntary idleness—becomes a necessary by-product.  But production is the end, employment merely the means.  We cannot continuously have the fullest production without full employment.  But we can very easily have full employment without full production.”

–Economics in One Lesson, by Henry Hazlitt, Chapter X, “The Fetish of Full Employment”

On February 28th, the real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.9%.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than was available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.3%. The update primarily reflected a downward revision to private inventory investment that was partly offset by upward revisions to state and local government spending and consumer spending.

The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, state and local government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

Compared to the third quarter of 2023, the deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and slowdowns in federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and consumer spending. Imports decelerated.

Updates to GDP

With the second estimate, downward revisions to private inventory investment and federal government spending were partly offset by upward revisions to state and local government spending, consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and exports. Imports were revised up.

GDP for 2023

Real GDP increased 2.5% in 2023 (from the 2022 annual level to the 2023 annual level), compared with an increase of 1.9% in 2022. The increase in real GDP in 2023 primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, exports, and federal government spending that were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and private inventory investment. Imports decreased.

Measured from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.1% during the period, compared with an increase of 0.7% from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2022.

*          *          *

Next release, March 28, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. EDT
Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate)
Corporate Profits
Gross Domestic Product by Industry
Fourth Quarter 2023 and Year 2023

IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR UNEMPLOYMENT EVER TO BE ZERO

‘Unemployment’ is an emotional ‘trigger’ word…a ‘third rail’, if you will.  It conjures up negative thoughts.  But it is important to realize that, while we want everyone who wants a job to have the opportunity to work, unemployment can never be zero and, in fact, can be disruptive to an economy if it gets too close to zero.  Very low unemployment can actually hurt the economy by creating an upward pressure on wages which invariably leads to higher production costs and prices.  This can lead to inflation.  The lowest the unemployment rate has been in the US was 2.5%.  That was in May and June 1953 when the economy overheated due to the Korean War.  When this bubble burst, it kicked off the Recession of 1953.  A healthy economy will always include some percentage of unemployment.

There are five main sources of unemployment:

1.  Cyclical (or demand-deficient) unemployment – This type of unemployment fluctuates with the business cycle.  It rises during a recession and falls during the subsequent recovery.  Workers who are most affected by this type of unemployment are laid off during a recession when production volumes fall, and companies use lay-offs as the easiest way to reduce costs.  These workers are usually rehired, some months later, when the economy improves.

2.  Frictional unemployment – This comes from the normal turnover in the labor force.  This is where new workers are entering the workforce and older workers are retiring and leaving vacancies to be filled by the new workers or those re-entering the workforce.  This category includes workers who are between jobs.

3.  Structural unemployment – This happens when the skills possessed by the unemployed worker don’t match the requirements of the opening—whether those be in characteristics and skills or in location.  This can come from new technology or foreign competition (e.g., foreign outsourcing).  This type of unemployment usually lasts longer than frictional unemployment because retraining, and sometimes relocation, is involved.  Occasionally jobs in this category can just disappear overseas.

4.  Seasonal unemployment – This happens when the workforce is affected by the climate or time of year.  Construction workers and agricultural workers aren’t needed as much during the winter season because of the inclement weather.  On the other hand, retail workers experience an increase in hiring shortly before, and during, the holiday season, but can be laid off shortly thereafter.

5.  Surplus unemployment – This is caused by minimum wage laws and unions.  When wages are set at a higher level, unemployment can often result.  Why?  To keep within the same payroll budget, the company must let go of some workers to pay the remaining workers a higher salary.

Other factors influencing the unemployment rate:

1.  Length of unemployment – Some studies indicate that an important factor influencing a worker’s decision to accept a new job is directly related to the length of the unemployment benefit they are receiving.  Currently, workers in most states are eligible for up to 26 weeks of benefits from the regular state-funded unemployment compensation program.

Extended Benefits are available to workers who have exhausted regular unemployment insurance benefits during periods of high unemployment. The basic Extended Benefits program provides up to 13 additional weeks of benefits when a State is experiencing high unemployment. Some States have also enacted a voluntary program to pay up to 7 additional weeks (20 weeks maximum) of Extended Benefits during periods of extremely high unemployment.

Studies suggest that additional weeks of benefits reduce the incentive of the unemployed to seek and accept less-desirable jobs.

2.  Changes in GDP – Since hiring workers takes time, the improvement in the unemployment rate usually lags the improvement in the GDP.

WHERE RECRUITERS PLACE

Now back to the issue at hand, namely the recruiting, and placing, of professionals and those with college degrees.

If you look at the past 24 years of unemployment in the February “management, professional and related” types of worker category, you will find the following rates:

February                     2023                2.0%

February                     2022                2.2%

February                      2021               3.2%

February                     2020                1.8%

February                     2019                2.0%

February                     2018                2.0%

February                     2017                2.1%

February                      2016                2.4%

February                     2015                2.7%

February                     2014                3.2%

February                     2013                3.8%

February                      2012                4.2%

February                     2011                4.4%

February                     2010                4.8%

February                     2009                3.9%

February                     2008                2.2%

February                     2007                1.9%

February                      2006                2.1%

February                      2005                2.5%

February                     2004                2.7%

February                     2003                3.1%

February                     2002                2.8%

February                     2001                1.8%

February                      2000                1.6%

Here are the rates, during those same time periods, for “college-degreed” workers:

February                     2023                2.0%

February                     2022                2.2%

February                     2021                3.8%

February                     2020                1.9%

February                     2019                2.2%

February                     2018                2.2%

February                     2017                2.4%

February                     2016                2.5%

February                     2015                2.7%

February                     2014                3.4%

February                      2013                3.9%

February                      2012                4.2%

February                     2011                4.3%

February                     2010                4.9%

February                     2009                4.2%

February                      2008                2.1%

February                     2007                1.9%

February                      2006                2.2%

February                      2005                2.4%

February                     2004                2.9%

February                     2003                3.0%

February                     2002                2.8%

February                     2001                1.6%

February                      2000                1.6%

The February 2024 rates for these two categories, 2.2% and 2.2%, respectively, are pretty low.  But regardless, these unemployment numbers usually include a good number of job hoppers, job shoppers and rejects.  We, on the other hand, are engaged by our client companies to find those candidates who are happy, well-appreciated, making good money and currently working and we entice them to move for even better opportunities—especially where new technologies are expanding.  This will never change.  And that is why, no matter the overall unemployment rate, we still need to MARKET to find the best possible job orders to work and we still need to RECRUIT to find the best possible candidates for those Job Orders.

Below are the numbers for the over 25-year old’s:

Less than H.S. diploma – Unemployment Rate

1/082/083/084/085/086/087/088/089/0810/0811/0812/08
7.7%7.4%8.2%7.9%8.4%8.9%8.6%9.7%9.8%10.4%10.6%10.9%
1/092/093/094/095/096/097/098/099/0910/0911/0912/09
12.0%12.6%13.3%14.8%15.5%15.5%15.4%15.6%15.0%15.5%15.0%15.3%
1/102/103/104/105/106/107/108/109/1010/1011/1012/10
15.2%15.6%14.5%14.7%15.0%14.1%13.8%14.0%15.4%15.3%15.7%15.3%
1/112/113/114/115/116/117/118/119/1110/1111/1112/11
14.2%13.9%13.7%14.6%14.7%14.3%15.0%14.3%14.0%13.8%13.2%13.8%
1/122/123/124/125/126/127/128/129/1210/1211/1212/12
13.1%12.9%12.6%12.5%13.0%12.6%12.7%12.0%11.3%12.2%12.2%11.7%
1/132/133/134/135/136/137/138/139/1310/1311/1312/13
12.0%11.2%11.1%11.6%11.1%10.7%11.0%11.3%10.3%10.9%10.8%9.8%
1/142/143/144/145/146/147/148/149/1410/1411/1412/14
9.6%9.8%9.6%8.9%9.1%9.1%9.6%9.1%8.4%7.9%8.5%8.8%
1/152/153/154/155/156/157/158/159/1510/1511/1512/15
8.5%8.4%8.6%8.6%8.6%8.2%8.3%7.7%7.7%7.3%6.8%6.7%
1/162/163/164/165/166/167/168/169/1610/1611/1612/16
7.4%7.3%7.4%7.5%7.1%7.5%6.3%7.2%8.5%7.3%7.9%7.9%
1/172/173/174/175/176/177/178/179/1710/1711/1712/17
7.3%7.9%6.8%6.5%6.1%6.4%6.9%6.0%6.5%5.7%5.2%6.3%
1/182/183/184/185/186/187/188/189/1810/1811/1812/18
5.4%5.7%5.5%5.9%5.4%5.5%5.1%5.7%5.5%6.0%5.6%5.8%
1/192/193/194/195/196/197/198/199/1910/1911/1912/19
5.7%5.3%5.9%5.4%5.4%5.3%5.1%5.4%4.8%5.6%5.3%5.2%
1/202/203/204/205/206/207/208/209/2010/2011/2012/20
5.5%5.7%6.8%21.2%19.9%16.6%15.4%12.6%10.7%9.9%9.2%9.8%
1/212/213/214/215/216/217/218/219/2110/2111/2112/21
9.1%10.1%8.2%9.3%9.1%10.2%9.5%7.8%7.9%7.4%5.7%5.2%
1/222/223/224/225/226/227/228/229/2210/2211/2212/22
6.3%4.3%5.2%5.4%5.2%5.8%5.9%6.2%5.6%6.3%4.4%5.0%
1/232/233/234/235/236/237/238/239/2310/2311/2312/23
4.5%5.8%4.8%5.4%5.7%6.0%5.2%5.4%5.5%5.8%6.3%6.0%
1/242/243/244/245/246/247/248/249/2410/2411/2412/24
6.0%6.1%        

H.S. Grad; no college – Unemployment Rate

1/082/083/084/085/086/087/088/089/0810/0811/0812/08
4.6%4.7%5.1%5.0%5.2%5.2%5.3%5.8%6.3%6.5%6.9%7.7%
1/092/093/094/095/096/097/098/099/0910/0911/0912/09
8.1%8.3%9.0%9.3%10.0%9.8%9.4%9.7%10.8%11.2%10.4%10.5%
1/102/103/104/105/106/107/108/109/1010/1011/1012/10
10.1%10.5%10.8%10.6%10.9%10.8%10.1%10.3%10.0%10.1%10.0%9.8%
1/112/113/114/115/116/117/118/119/1110/1111/1112/11
9.4%9.5%9.5%9.7%9.5%10.0%9.3%9.6%9.7%9.6%8.8%8.7%
1/122/123/124/125/126/127/128/129/1210/1211/1212/12
8.4%8.3%8.0%7.9%8.1%8.4%8.7%8.8%8.7%8.4%8.1%8.0%
1/132/133/134/135/136/137/138/139/1310/1311/1312/13
8.1%7.9%7.6%7.4%7.4%7.6%7.6%7.6%7.6%7.3%7.3%7.1%
1/142/143/144/145/146/147/148/149/1410/1411/1412/14
6.5%6.4%6.3%6.3%6.5%5.8%6.1%6.2%5.3%5.7%5.6%5.3%
1/152/153/154/155/156/157/158/159/1510/1511/1512/15
5.4%5.4%5.3%5.4%5.8%5.4%5.5%5.5%5.3%5.3%5.4%5.6%
1/162/163/164/165/166/167/168/169/1610/1611/1612/16
5.3%5.3%5.4%5.4%5.1%5.0%5.0%5.1%5.2%5.5%4.9%5.1%
1/172/173/174/175/176/177/178/179/1710/1711/1712/17
5.2%5.0%4.9%4.6%4.7%4.6%4.5%5.1%4.3%4.3%4.3%4.2%
1/182/183/184/185/186/187/188/189/1810/1811/1812/18
4.5%4.4%4.3%4.3%3.9%4.2%4.0%3.9%3.7%4.0%3.5%3.8%
1/192/193/194/195/196/197/198/199/1910/1911/1912/19
3.8%3.8%3.7%3.5%3.5%3.9%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.7%3.7%3.7%
1/202/203/204/205/206/207/208/209/2010/2011/2012/20
3.8%3.6%4.4%17.3%15.3%12.1%10.8%9.8%9.0%8.1%7.8%7.8%
1/212/213/214/215/216/217/218/219/2110/2111/2112/21
7.1%7.2%6.7%6.9%6.8%7.0%6.3%6.0%5.8%5.4%5.2%4.6%
1/222/223/224/225/226/227/228/229/2210/2211/2212/22
4.6%4.5%4.0%3.8%3.8%3.6%3.6%4.2%3.7%3.9%3.9%3.6%
1/232/233/234/235/236/237/238/239/2310/2311/2312/23
3.7%3.6%4.0%3.9%3.9%3.9%3.4%3.8%4.1%4.0%4.1%4.2%
1/242/243/244/245/246/247/248/249/2410/2411/2412/24
4.3%4.2%        

Some College; or AA/AS – Unemployment Rate

1/082/083/084/085/086/087/088/089/0810/0811/0812/08
3.7%3.8%3.9%4.0%4.3%4.4%4.6%5.0%5.1%5.3%5.5%5.6%
1/092/093/094/095/096/097/098/099/0910/0911/0912/09
6.2%7.0%7.2%7.4%7.7%8.0%7.9%8.2%8.5%9.0%9.0%9.0%
1/102/103/104/105/106/107/108/109/1010/1011/1012/10
8.5%8.0%8.2%8.3%8.3%8.2%8.3%8.7%9.1%8.5%8.7%8.1%
1/112/113/114/115/116/117/118/119/1110/1111/1112/11
8.0%7.8%7.4%7.5%8.0%8.4%8.3%8.2%8.4%8.3%7.6%7.7%
1/122/123/124/125/126/127/128/129/1210/1211/1212/12
7.2%7.3%7.5%7.6%7.9%7.5%7.1%6.6%6.5%6.9%6.6%6.9%
1/132/133/134/135/136/137/138/139/1310/1311/1312/13
7.0%6.7%6.4%6.4%6.5%6.4%6.0%6.1%6.0%6.3%6.4%6.1%
1/142/143/144/145/146/147/148/149/1410/1411/1412/14
6.0%6.2%6.1%5.7%5.5%5.0%5.3%5.4%5.4%4.8%4.9%5.0%
1/152/153/154/155/156/157/158/159/1510/1511/1512/15
5.2%5.1%4.8%4.7%4.4%4.2%4.4%4.4%4.3%4.3%4.4%4.1%
1/162/163/164/165/166/167/168/169/1610/1611/1612/16
4.2%4.2%4.1%4.1%3.9%4.2%4.3%4.3%4.2%4.2%3.9%3.8%
1/172/173/174/175/176/177/178/179/1710/1711/1712/17
3.8%4.0%3.7%3.7%4.0%3.8%3.7%3.8%3.6%3.7%3.6%3.6%
1/182/183/184/185/186/187/188/189/1810/1811/1812/18
3.4%3.5%3.6%3.5%3.2%3.3%3.2%3.5%3.2%3.0%3.1%3.3%
1/192/193/194/195/196/197/198/199/1910/1911/1912/19
3.4%3.2%3.4%3.1%2.8%3.0%3.2%3.1%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.7%
1/202/203/204/205/206/207/208/209/2010/2011/2012/20
2.8%3.0%3.7%15.0%13.3%10.9%10.0%8.0%8.1%6.6%6.3%6.3%
1/212/213/214/215/216/217/218/219/2110/2111/2112/21
6.2%5.9%5.9%5.8%5.9%5.8%5.0%5.1%4.5%4.4%3,7%3.6%
1/222/223/234/225/226/227/228/229/2210/2211/2212/22
3.6%3.8%3.0%3.1%3.4%3.1%2.8%2.9%2.9%3.0%3.2%2.9%
1/232/233/234/235/236/237/238/239/2310/2311/2312/23
2.9%3.2%3.0%2.9%3.2%3.1%3.1%3.0%3.0%3.1%2.8%3.1%
1/232/233/234/235/236/237/238/239/2310/2311/2312/23
2.9%3.2%3.0%2.9%3.2%3.1%3.1%3.0%3.0%3.1%2.8%3.1%
1/242/243/244/245/246/247/248/249/2410/2411/2412/24
3.3%3.1%        

BS/BS + – Unemployment Rate

1/082/083/084/085/086/087/088/089/0810/0811/0812/08
2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.3%2.4%2.5%2.7%2.6%3.1%3.2%3.7%
1/092/093/094/095/096/097/098/099/0910/0911/0912/09
3.9%4.1%4.3%4.4%4.8%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.9%4.7%4.9%5.0%
1/102/103/104/105/106/107/108/109/1010/1011/1012/10
4.8%5.0%4.9%4.9%4.7%4.4%4.5%4.6%4.4%4.7%5.1%4.8%
1/112/113/114/115/116/117/118/119/1110/1111/1112/11
4.2%4.3%4.4%4.5%4.5%4.4%4.3%4.3%4.2%4.4%4.4%4.1%
1/122/123/124/125/126/127/128/129/1210/1211/1212/12
4.2%4.2%4.2%4.0%3.9%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%3.8%3.8%3.9%
1/132/133/134/135/136/137/138/139/1310/1311/1312/13
3.8%3.8%3.8%3.9%3.8%3.9%3.8%3.5%3.7%3.8%3.4%3.3%
1/142/143/144/145/146/147/148/149/1410/1411/1412/14
3.3%3.4%3.4%3.3%3.2%3.3%3.1%3.2%2.9%3.1%3.2%2.8%
1/152/153/154/155/156/157/158/159/1510/1511/1512/15
2.8%2.7%2.5%2.7%2.7%2.5%2.6%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%
1/162/163/164/165/166/167/168/169/1610/1611/1612/16
2.5%2.5%2.6%2.4%2.4%2.5%2.5%2.7%2.5%2.6%2.3%2.5%
1/172/173/174/175/176/177/178/179/1710/1711/1712/17
2.5%2.4%2.5%2.4%2.3%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.3%2.0%2.1%2.1%
1/182/183/184/185/186/187/188/189/1810/1811/1812/18
2.1%2.3%2.2%2.1%2.0%2.3%2.2%2.1%2.0%2.0%2.2%2.1%
1/192/193/194/195/196/197/198/199/1910/1911/1912/19
2.4%2.2%2.0%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.2%2.1%2.0%2.1%2.0%1.9%
1/202/203/204/205/206/207/208/209/2010/2011/2012/20
2.0%1.9%2.5%8.4%7.4%6.9%6.7%5.3%4.7%4.2%4.2%3.8%
1/212/213/214/215/216/217/218/219/2110/2111/2112/21
4.0%3.8%3.7%3.5%3.2%3.5%3.1%2.8%2.5%2.4%2.3%2.1%
1/222/223/224/225/226/227/228/229/2210/2211/2212/22
2.3%2.2%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.1%2.0%1.9%1.8%1.9%2.0%1.9%
1/232/233/234/235/236/237/238/239/2310/2311/2312/23
2.0%2.0%2.0%1.9%2.1%2.0%2.0%2.2%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%
1/242/243/244/245/246/247/248/249/2410/2411/2412/24
2.1%2.2%        

Management, Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

1/082/083/084/085/086/087/088/089/0810/0811/0812/08
2.2%2.2%2.1%2.0%2.6%2.7%2.9%3.3%2.8%3.0%3.2%3.3%
1/092/093/094/095/096/097/098/099/0910/0911/0912/09
4.1%3.9%4.2%4.0%4.6%5.0%5.5%5.4%5.2%4.7%4.6%4.6%
1/102/103/104/105/106/107/108/109/1010/1011/1012/10
5.0%4.8%4.7%4.5%4.5%4.9%5.0%5.1%4.4%4.5%4.7%4.6%
1/112/113/114/115/116/117/118/119/1110/1111/1112/11
4.7%4.4%4.3%4.0%4.4%4.7%5.0%4.9%4.4%4.4%4.2%4.2%
1/122/123/124/125/126/127/128/129/1210/1211/1212/12
4.3%4.2%4.2%3.7%4.0%4.4%4.8%4.5%3.9%3.8%3.6%3.9%
1/132/133/134/135/136/137/138/139/1310/1311/1312/13
3.9%3.8%3.6%3.5%3.5%4.2%4.1%3.8%3.5%3.4%3.1%2.9%
1/142/143/144/145/146/147/148/149/1410/1411/1412/14
3.1%3.2%3.3%2.9%3.1%3.5%3.5%3.4%2.8%2.7%2.8%2.7%
1/152/153/154/155/156/157/158/159/1510/1511/1512/15
2.9%2.7%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.9%3.1%2.9%2.4%2.2%2.1%2.0%
1/162/163/164/165/166/167/168/169/1610/1611/1612/16
2.3%2.4%2.4%2.1%2.1%2.8%3.0%3.1%2.7%2.5%2.3%2.2%
1/172/173/174/175/176/177/178/179/1710/1711/1712/17
2.3%2.1%2.0%2.0%1.9%2.3%2.7%2.8%2.3%2.1%2.0%2.0%
1/182/183/184/185/186/187/188/189/1810/1811/1812/18
2.2%2.0%2.0%1.8%1.7%2.5%2.4%2.5%2.0%1.9%2.1%2.1%
1/192/193/194/195/196/197/198/199/1910/1911/1912/19
2.5%2.0%2.0%1.6%1.7%2.4%2.4%2.3%1.9%1.8%1.8%1.8%
1/202/203/204/205/206/207/208/209/2010/2011/2012/20
2.2%1.8%2.5%7.7%6.6%6.5%6.6%5.5%4.5%3.7%3.7%3.4%
1/212/213/214/215/216/217/218/219/2110/2111/2112/21
3.7%3.2%3.1%3.0%2.8%3.5%3.3%3.2%2.4%2.2%1.9%1.7%
1/222/223/224/225/226/227/228/229/2210/2211/2212/22
2.3%2.2%1.5%1.6%1.6%2.2%2.4%2.4%1.8%2.0%1.8%1.7%
1/232/233/234/235/236/237/238/239/2310/2311/2312/23
2.1%2.0%1.9%1.6%1.8%2.2%2.4%2.4%2.0%1.9%1.8%1.8%
1/242/243/244/245/246/247/248/249/2410/2411/2412/24
2.1%2.2%        

Or employed… (,000)

1/082/083/084/085/086/087/088/089/0810/0811/0812/08
52,16552,49852,68152,81952,54452,73552,65552,62653,10453,48553,27452,548
1/092/093/094/095/096/097/098/099/0910/0911/0912/09
52,35852,19652,34552,59752,25651,77651,81051,72452,18652,98152,26352,131
1/102/103/104/105/106/107/108/109/1010/1011/1012/10
52,15952,32452,16352,35551,83951,41450,97450,87951,75751,81852,26351,704
1/112/113/114/115/116/117/118/119/1110/1111/1112/11
51,86652,55753,24353,21652,77852,12051,66251,99752,66552,86452,78752,808
1/122/123/124/125/126/127/128/129/1210/1211/1212/12
53,15253,20853,77154,05554,15653,84653,16553,69654,65555,22354,95154,635
1/132/133/134/135/136/137/138/139/1310/1311/1312/13
54,21454,56354,72154,76754,74054,32354,06454,51555,01355,15555,58354,880
1/142/143/144/145/146/147/148/149/1410/1411/1412/14
55,09655,50156,03655,89656,20255,71455,38155,64656,36556,75957,11056,888
1/152/153/154/155/156/157/158/159/1510/1511/1512/15
57,36757,59657,80557,95358,15557,71057,39257,28858,10558,45658,66759,030
1/162/163/164/165/166/167/168/169/1610/1611/1612/16
59,01459,58360,08059,69059,61359,18158,43458,52659,59959,76659,70760,069
1/172/173/174/175/176/177/178/179/1710/1711/1712/17
59,92161,06461,15661,31761,17460,70559,92359,55960,99061,06261,81862,121
1/182/183/184/185/186/187/188/189/1810/1811/1812/18
62,12362,90863,06762,56162,36061,34961,43361,59362,18162,92963,08463,642
1/192/193/194/195/196/197/198/199/1910/1911/1912/19
63,81864,28164,29963,56063,59463,41863,39463,67964,34364,99765,54865,682
1/202/203/204/205/206/207/208/209/2010/2011/2012/20
65,53366,09165,88161,15262,33063,29062,45163,09562,75963,27763,38764,007
1/212/213/214/215/216/217/218/219/2110/2111/2112/21
63,88664,47164,50364,26464,26864,31664,17964,12265,16365,33566,06066,366
1/222/223/224/225/226/227/228/229/2210/2211/2212/22
66,74067,75467,82367,31967,65267,22467,87468,37769,05668,91869.15669,297
1/232/233/234/235/236/237/238/239/2310/2311/2312/23
69,24969,98670,65170,40370,38869,95669,66269,28070,41771,38771,35070,572
1/242/243/244/245/246/247/248/249/2410/2411/2412/24
70,65070,217        

And unemployed… (,000)

1/082/083/084/085/086/087/088/089/0810/0811/0812/08
1,1641,1591,1211,0881,4071,4781,5851,7791,5391,6471,7861,802
1/092/093/094/095/096/097/098/099/0910/0911/0912/09
2,2382,1372,2922,1642,3732,7203,0342,9252,8592,5932,5302,509
1/102/103/104/105/106/107/108/109/1010/1011/1012/10
2,7622,6372,6002,4642,4502,6442,6872,7622,3812,4172,5252,468
1/112/113/114/115/116/117/118/119/1110/1111/1112/11
2,5572,4352,3812,1962,4192,5982,7422,6712,4502,4102,3362,303
1/122/123/124/125/126/127/128/129/1210/1211/1212/12
2,4102,3362,3302,0622,2752,4722,6662,5562,2452,1702,0772,221
1/132/133/134/135/136/137/138/139/1310/1311/1312/13
2,2112,1642,0201,9801,9902,3582,2862,1301,9781,9301,7491,637
1/142/143/144/145/146/147/148/149/1410/1411/1412/14
1,7841,8451,8901,6421,7952,0012,0111,9301,6171,5821,6561,568
1/152/153/154/155/156/157/158/159/1510/1511/1512/15
1,7411,6011,3981,4351,4601,7141,8071,6861,4141,3121,2761,208
1/162/163/164/165/166/167/168/169/1610/1611/1612/16
1,4041,4561,4771,2511,3051,7121,7821,8691,6521,5061,3821,361
1/172/173/174/175/176/177/178/179/1710/1711/1712/17
1,4251,3131,2651,2541,2081,4401,6561,7311,4631,2851,2661,290
1/182/183/184/185/186/187/188/189/1810/1811/1812/18
1,3741,3011,3101,1341,0831,5751,5391,5911,2991,2461,3301,368
1/192/193/194/195/196/197/198/199/1910/1911/1912/19
1,6071,3171,2891,0401,0861,5401,5911,4761,2351,1611,2081,171
1/202/203/204/205/206/207/208/209/2010/2011/2012/20
1,4541,2071,6635,0794,4324,3904,4003,6802,9462,4482,4152,235
1/212/213/214/215/216/217/218/219/2110/2111/2112/21
2,4332,1582,0632,0141,8792,3032,2032,1231,5801,4531,3081,146
1/222/223/224/225/226/227/228/229/2210/2211/2212/22
1,5831,4901,0531,0881,0981,5201,6501,6471,2911,3981,2471,198
1/232/233/234/235/236/237/238/239/2310/2311/2312/23
1,4601,4061,3681,1531,2811,6091,7011,7121,4661,4151,3011,314
1/242/243/244/245/246/247/248/249/2410/2411/2412/24
1,5271,580        

For a total Management, Professional & Related workforce of…(,000)

1/082/083/084/085/086/087/088/089/0810/0811/0812/08
53,32953,65753,80253,90753,95154,21354,24054,40554,64355,13255,06054,350
1/092/093/094/095/096/097/098/099/0910/0911/0912/09
54,59654,33354,63754,76154,62954,49654,84454,64955,04555,57454,79354,640
1/102/103/104/105/106/107/108/109/1010/1011/1012/10
54,92154,96154,76354,81954,28954,05853,66153,64154,13854,23554,78854,172
1/112/113/114/115/116/117/118/119/1110/1111/1112/11
54,42354,99255,62455,41255,19754,71854,40454,66855,11555,27455,12355,111
1/122/123/124/125/126/127/128/129/1210/1211/1212/12
55,56255,54456,10156,11756,43156,31855,83156,25256,90057,39357,02856,856
1/132/133/134/135/136/137/138/139/1310/1311/1312/13
56,42556,72756,74156,74756,73056,68156,35056,64556,99157,08557,33256,517
1/142/143/144/145/146/147/148/149/1410/1411/1412/14
56,88057,34657,92657,53857,99757,71557,39257,57657,98258,34158,76658,456
1/152/153/154/155/156/157/158/159/1510/1511/1512/15
59,10859,19759,20359,38859,61559,42459,19958,97459,51959,76859,94360,238
1/162/163/164/165/166/167/168/169/1610/1611/1612/16
60,41861,03961,55760,94160,91860,89360,21660,39561,25161,27261,08961,430
1/172/173/174/175/176/177/178/179/1710/1711/1712/17
61,34662,37762,42162,57162,38262,14561,57961,29062,45362,34763,08463,411
1/182/183/184/185/186/187/188/189/1810/1811/1812/18
63,49764,20964,37763,69563,44362,92462,97263,18463,48064,17564,41465,010
1/192/193/194/195/196/197/198/199/1910/1911/1912/19
65,42565,59865,58864,60064,68064,95864,98565,15565,57866,15866,75666,853
1/202/203/204/205/206/207/208/209/2010/2011/2012/20
66,98767,29867,54466,23166,76267,68066,85166,77565,70565,67565,80266,242
1/212/213/214/215/216/217/218/219/2110/2111/2112/21
66,31966,62966,56666,27866,14766,61966,38266,24566,74366,78867,36867,512
1/222/223/224/225/226/227/228/229/2210/2211/2212/22
68,32369,24468,87668,40768,75068,74469,52470,02470,34770,31670.40370,495
1/232/233/234/235/236/237/238/239/2310/2311/2312/23
70,70971,39272,01971,55671,66971,56571,36370,99271,88372,80272,65171,886
1/242/243/244/245/246/247/248/249/2410/2411/2412/24
72,17771,797        

Management, Business and Financial Operations – Unemployment Rate

1/082/083/084/085/086/087/088/089/0810/0811/0812/08
2.3%2.3%2.2%2.1%2.7%2.5%2.6%2.8%2.8%3.0%3.6%3.9%
1/092/093/094/095/096/097/098/099/0910/0911/0912/09
4.6%4.5%4.5%4.4%4.6%4.8%4.9%5.0%5.2%5.4%5.4%5.2%
1/102/103/104/105/106/107/108/109/1010/1011/1012/10
5.2%5.1%5.4%5.1%4.9%4.8%4.7%4.9%4.3%5.0%5.5%5.7%
1/112/113/114/115/116/117/118/119/1110/1111/1112/11
5.3%4.9%4.8%4.6%4.9%4.6%4.6%4.6%4.6%4.7%4.6%4.4%
1/122/123/124/125/126/127/128/129/1210/1211/1212/12
4.5%4.4%4.4%4.0%4.1%3.8%3.8%3.7%3.5%3.6%3.8%4.1%
1/132/133/134/135/136/137/138/139/1310/1311/1312/13
4.0%3.9%3.5%3.5%3.8%3.5%3.1%3.4%3.3%3.7%3.2%3.1%
1/142/143/144/145/146/147/148/149/1410/1411/1412/14
3.4%3.6%3.5%3.2%3.3%2.8%2.7%2.6%2.4%2.7%2.7%2.5%
1/152/153/154/155/156/157/158/159/1510/1511/1512/15
3.0%2.8%2.6%2.6%2.9%2.4%2.3%2.2%2.4%2.2%2.1%1.9%
1/162/163/164/165/166/167/168/169/1610/1611/1612/16
2.3%2.6%2.5%2.4%2.4%2.5%2.4%2.5%2.8%2.5%2.3%2.4%
1/172/173/174/175/176/177/178/179/1710/1711/1712/17
2.5%2.4%2.4%2.2%1.8%1.9%1.9%2.4%2.5%1.9%1.9%2.0%
1/182/183/184/185/186/187/188/189/1810/1811/1812/18
2.0%2.0%2.0%1.8%1.7%2.1%1.9%2.0%2.1%2.0%2.1%2.2%
1/192/193/194/195/196/197/198/199/1910/1911/1912/19
2.5%2.1%2.0%1.4%1.5%1.9%1.8%1.9%1.6%1.7%1.6%1.9%
1/202/203/204/205/206/207/208/209/2010/2011/2012/20
2.3%1.8%2.2%6.2%5.1%4.8%5.1%4.7%4.8%4.3%3.9%3.6%
1/212/213/214/215/216/217/218/219/2110/2111/2112/21
3.8%3.5%3.4%3.1%2.9%3.0%2.6%2.9%2.3%2.3%2.2%1.8%
1/222/223/224/225/226/227/228/229/2210/2211/2212/22
2.1%2.1%1.5%1.6%1.4%1.6%1.5%1.7%1.8%2.1%1.9%1.8%
1/232/233/234/235/236/237/238/239/2310/2311/2312/23
2.0%2.1%2.1%1.8%2.0%1.9%1.9%2.1%2.1%1.8%1.7%2.0%
1/242/243/244/245/246/247/248/249/2410/2411/2412/24
2.1%2.4%        

Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

1/082/083/084/085/086/087/088/089/0810/0811/0812/08
2.1%2.1%2.0%2.0%2.5%2.9%3.2%3.6%2.8%3.0%3.0%2.9%
1/102/103/104/105/106/107/108/109/1010/1011/1012/10
4.9%4.6%4.3%4.1%4.3%5.0%5.2%5.3%4.4%4.1%4.1%3.8%
1/112/113/114/115/116/117/118/119/1110/1111/1112/11
4.3%4.1%3.9%3.5%4.0%4.9%5.3%5.1%4.4%4.1%4.0%4.0%
1/122/123/124/125/126/127/128/129/1210/1211/1212/12
4.2%4.1%4.0%3.5%4.0%4.8%5.5%5.2%4.3%3.9%3.5%3.8%
1/132/133/134/135/136/137/138/139/1310/1311/1312/13
3.8%3.8%3.6%3.4%3.3%4.6%4.7%4.0%3.6%3.1%2.9%2.7%
1/142/143/144/145/146/147/148/149/1410/1411/1412/14
2.9%3.0%3.1%2.6%2.9%4.0%4.1%3.9%3.1%2.7%2.9%2.8%
1/152/153/154/155/156/157/158/159/1510/1511/1512/15
2.9%2.7%2.2%2.3%2.1%3.2%3.6%3.3%2.4%2.2%2.2%2.1%
1/162/163/164/165/166/167/168/169/1610/1611/1612/16
2.4%2.2%2.3%1.8%2.0%3.1%3.4%3.5%2.6%2.4%2.2%2.1%
1/172/173/174/175/176/177/178/179/1710/1711/1712/17
2.2%1.9%1.8%1.8%2.0%2.6%3.3%3.1%2.3%2.2%2.0%2.1%
1/182/183/184/185/186/187/188/189/1810/1811/1812/18
2.3%2.0%2.1%1.8%1.7%2.8%2.8%2.9%2.0%1.9%2.1%2.1%
1/192/193/194/195/196/197/198/199/1910/1911/1912/19
2.4%2.0%1.9%1.8%1.8%2.7%2.9%2.6%2.1%1.8%1.9%1.7%
1/202/203/204/205/206/207/208/209/2010/2011/2012/20
2.1%1.8%2.6%8.8%7.7%7.7%7.6%6.1%4.3%3.3%3.5%3.2%
1/212/213/214/215/216/217/218/219/2110/2111/2112/21
3.5%3.1%2.9%3.0%2.8%3.8%3.9%3.4%2.4%2.1%1.8%1.6%
1/222/223/224/225/226/227/228/229/2210/2211/2212/22
2.5%2.2%1.6%1.6%1.7%2.6%3.0%2.8%1.9%1.9%1.7%1.6%
1/232/233/234/235/236/237/238/239/2310/2311/2312/23
2.1%1.9%1.8%1.4%1.7%2.5%2.8%2.7%2.0%2.1%1.9%1.7%
1/242/243/244/245/246/247/248/249/2410/2411/2412/24
2.1%2.1%        

Sales & Related – Unemployment Rate

1/082/083/084/085/086/087/088/089/0810/0811/0812/08
5.2%5.2%4.8%4.3%5.1%5.6%6.2%6.3%5.7%6.1%6.5%7.0%
1/092/093/094/095/096/097/098/099/0910/0911/0912/09
7.7%8.4%8.9%8.6%8.9%9.1%8.3%8.7%8.9%9.5%9.1%8.9%
1/102/103/104/105/106/107/108/109/1010/1011/1012/10
10.1%10.2%9.7%9.2%9.6%9.4%10.1%9.0%9.4%9.1%8.8%8.3%
1/112/113/114/115/116/117/118/119/1110/1111/1112/11
9.3%9.0%8.5%8.5%9.4%9.7%9.4%8.6%9.4%8.2%7.8%7.7%
1/122/123/124/125/126/127/128/129/1210/1211/1212/12
8.2%7.9%8.1%7.6%7.9%8.4%8.3%8.6%7.9%7.0%7.3%7.0%
1/132/133/134/135/136/137/138/139/1310/1311/1312/13
8.5%8.2%7.7%6.9%7.1%6.7%6.9%7.2%7.5%7.3%7.0%6.3%
1/142/143/144/145/146/147/148/149/1410/1411/1412/14
7.1%7.7%6.8%5.8%6.8%6.1%6.2%5.6%5.4%5.2%5.3%5.0%
1/152/153/154/155/156/157/158/159/1510/1511/1512/15
5.8%5.2%5.8%5.5%5.8%5.6%5.8%5.4%5.6%5.3%5.1%4.3%
1/162/163/164/165/166/167/168/169/1610/1611/1612/16
5.0%4.4%4.4%5.2%5.1%4.9%4.9%4.8%5.2%4.4%4.6%4.6%
1/172/173/174/175/176/177/178/179/1710/1711/1712/17
5.2%4.3%3.9%4.2%4.5%4.8%4.2%4.2%3.7%4.0%4.1%3.8%
1/182/183/184/185/186/187/188/189/1810/1811/1812/18
4.6%4.5%4.5%4.1%4.2%4.4%4.0%3.5%4.0%3.6%3.7%3.6%
1/192/193/194/195/196/197/198/199/1910/1911/1912/19
4.5%5.0%4.6%3.9%3.6%3.4%3.2%3.8%3.6%3.4%3.3%3.3%
1/202/203/204/205/206/207/208/209/2010/2011/2012/20
4.5%4.2%4.3%17.1%16.2%13.3%10.9%8.6%8.9%7.0%6.3%5.3%
1/212/213/214/215/216/217/218/219/2110/2111/2112/21
6.6%6.6%6.3%6.3%6.4%6.0%6.0%5.5%5.2%4.5%4.2%3.6%
1/222/223/224/225/226/227/228/229/2210/2211/2212/22
4.2%3.6%4.3%4.1%4.2%4.1%4.1%4.0%3.8%3.4%3.3%3.4%
1/232/233/234/235/236/237/238/239/2310/2311/2312/23
4.4%4.0%3.7%3.0%4.0%4.0%3.7%3.9%4.1%3.9%3.7%4.4%
1/242/243/244/245/246/247/248/249/2410/2411/2412/24
4.5%4.7%