Bob Marshall’s October 2015 BLS Analysis for Recruiters; 11/6/15
October BLS Preface
TBMG Coaching Updates and News
Bob Marshall – Training/Coaching Updates:
New Client, October 11, 2015
I will conduct my first training visit to a new client in North Carolina, on Wednesday, October 11, 2015. This visit will consist of formal presentations and desk-level coaching.
Top Echelon, Free Recruiter Training Webinar, December 8, 2015
My Top Echelon virtual presentation, “3 Proven Methods to Landing New Clients”, will be on Tuesday afternoon, December 8, 2015, at 1pm, Eastern Time.
Taking the first step…
Over 35 years ago I began a career that turned out to be the most dynamic and rewarding professional move I have ever made. With the opportunity to earn an unlimited income at my fingertips, I began my career as a Recruiter.
Soon I became a student of the business and transitioned into Coaching. I traveled extensively and learned and listened and I packaged my material in a unique way. I studied many of the top producers in the recruiting industry and developed a series of training tools based on their proven success—training techniques that work time and time again.
I developed these tools and coaching techniques to help others achieve their goals as top producing professional recruiters. I continue to base all of my coaching and training tools on the same “nuts and bolts” approach I used as a recruiter.
I realize that taking that first step to engage a Coach to help you reach a higher level of production is not as easy as it sounds. After all, your training investment – and your time – are important and deserve every consideration. I share your feelings. I believe that how you approach your recruitment career matters…that you should get what you pay for, and then some…that you should enjoy your time with your Coach as you are benefiting from it…and that you should never settle for the ordinary.
If you are ready to take the first step, you can read descriptions of my coaching plans, and all of my products, on my website @ www.themarshallplan.org. Then, call me directly at 770-898-5550 or email me @ bob@themarshallplan.org.
Preface
Many of you continue to correspond with me about these monthly BLS analyses and have asked if it is OK to use them in your presentations. The answer is, of course, yes! That is why I spend the time to assemble this information. I would encourage any of you who have that desire to weave any of the information I have printed below into your presentations. I write these analyses for the benefit of our recruitment industry in general and for the members of my distribution list in particular. So use this info as you deem appropriate.
I also write these monthly BLS analyses to not only counterbalance the negative/incorrect press reporting of our general economic state but, more than that, to remind all of my recruitment readers that, at the level we work, there is no unemployment and so we must recruit to find the candidates our client companies so desperately need!
So, to my recruiter colleagues, get out there and do what your name implies…RECRUIT! When your client companies have unique and difficult positions to fill, they need you. When they are being picky, they need you. When they are longing for more production from fewer employees, they need you. Go fill those needs. These should be the halcyon days in the recruitment arena!
Finally, always remember that we are not in an HR business, but in a ‘circumventing the time factor in the hiring sequence’ business—and adding value to our client companies.
GDP estimate down to 1.5% for third quarter
Daily News, October 29, 2015
US real GDP rose in the 3rd quarter at an annual rate of 1.5%, according to an “advance” estimate issued by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. It’s below the consensus forecast for 1.7%, and follows an increase of 3.9% in the 2nd quarter.
“The economy is in better shape than captured in the growth of real GDP,” according to a report by James Marple, senior economist at TD Economics. “The headline masks solid strength in domestic demand that has historically been the best predictor of future GDP growth.”
The slow growth in GDP was largely a result of slower inventory buildup, according to Gad Levanon, managing director, macroeconomic and labor market research at The Conference Board. A better gauge of the trend in current economic activity is final sales of domestic products, which held quite well at 3.0%.
“Household spending is the main engine of the US economy right now with consumption spending growing at 3.2% and residential investment at 6.1% in the third quarter,” Lavanon said. “The still-lingering impact of the low oil prices on investment is still visible in the structures components, but overall investment in equipment recovered nicely to 5.3%.”
Levanon continued, “Moving forward, we continue to expect US households to push GDP growth only slightly beyond its long run trend which we estimate to be about 2% right now. In the coming year, we expect GDP growth to average about 2.5%, despite still downward pressure from net exports.”
Benefits take on new importance in recruiting, retaining employees
Daily News, October 16, 2015
Faced with a competitive job market and stagnant wages, more organizations are turning to their benefit offerings — healthcare coverage and retirement savings programs, among them — to help recruit and retain prized employees, according to the 2015 Strategic Benefits Survey released by Society for Human Resource Management.
The survey found 38% of respondents said their organization leveraged benefits to recruit employees at all levels during the past 12 months, a statistically significant increase from 26% in 2013 and 29% in 2012. More than half the respondents said their organizations had difficulty recruiting highly skilled employees, and 40% said their organizations used benefits to lure these hard-to-recruit employees during the past 12 months, an increase of 10 percentage points since 2013.
“While the competition for talented workers has heated up, there has been little change in base salaries. So HR has strategically turned to benefits to attract — and keep — skilled professionals,” said Evren Esen, director of SHRM’s survey programs. “From unlimited vacation to unusual perks such as electric car charging stations, companies are using benefits to set themselves apart from the competition.”
To retain employees at all levels of their organization, one-third of HR professionals looked to benefits in the past 12 months, up from 18% 2013 and 20% in 2012.
In other findings, the survey results showed:
Healthcare
• 96% of organizations offered healthcare insurance plans.
• For plan year 2015, respondents said their organization is paying on average 76% of employees’ total healthcare costs.
• 46% of respondents said their organization increased the share employees pay for healthcare this plan year over last plan year.
• 72% had not considered providing subsidies to their employees to purchase healthcare insurance through a private exchange.
• “Healthcare is the benefit mostly highly valued by employees,” Esen said. “Maintaining coverage is an effective tool for recruitment and retention. In coming years, retirement savings, compensation, flexible work and career development also will play increasingly important roles in recruiting strategies.”
Wellness
• 69% said their organizations offered a wellness program, resource or service.
• 52% indicated employee participation in wellness programs increased year over year, as has been the case since 2012.
Flexible work arrangements
• 48% of HR professionals indicated their organization provided employees with the option to use flexible work arrangements.
• 29% of employers that do so reported an increase in employee participation over last year.
Assessment and communication of benefits
• Few organizations use social media to communicate information about benefits to their employees. This may change, as 9% said they plan to start using social media as a benefits communication tool within the next 12 months.
The 6-part 2015 Strategic Benefits Survey polled more than 460 randomly selected HR professionals in May and June 2015.
Gen Z are optimistic, fascinated by entrepreneurship
Daily News, October 14, 2015
The next wave of digital natives are optimistic about the future and fascinated by entrepreneurship, according to the report, “Generation Z Grows Up,” released today by Universum, a global employer brand research firm. Generation Z comprises 25% of the US population and the first wave on Gen Z will enter the workforce in 3 years.
Among Universum’s top findings for employers:
• Optimistic spirit: This generation thinks anything is possible; 65% are hopeful about the future.
• Values at work: Nearly four in 10 fear they won’t find a job that matches their personality. This desire to be themselves and express their personality at work is critical for employers to heed.
• University alternatives: Only 15% accept the idea of foregoing university outright, but 47% say they would “maybe” consider the notion of joining the workforce instead of pursuing college/university. Investing in training and development is a new imperative for employers.
• Entrepreneurial mindset: More than half, 55%, said they are interested in starting their own company, a figure that’s even higher in emerging markets. How will large global organizations recruit and retain this start-up generation?
Universum surveyed approximately 50,000 young people, born between 1996 and 2000, across 46 countries.
PNC survey finds small businesses’ hiring plans the most since 2012
Daily News, October 2, 2015
Small and mid-sized business owners in the US are increasingly optimistic about the prospects for their own businesses and more expect to increase hiring and wages for their employees over the next six months, according to the PNC Economic Outlook Survey released by The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc.
The survey found 26% expect to hire additional full-time employees, the most since 2012 and second highest since 2007. Additionally, 42% intend to increase employees’ pay, which is the most since 2007. One in four businesses, 26%, also say they have hired in the last 6 months, up significantly from 18% in PNC’s spring survey.
“Small businesses are like the economy’s grass roots based on the employment and economic activity they create,” said PNC’s Chief Economist Stuart Hoffman. “These encouraging results demonstrate the job market will continue to grow for at least 6 more months and also strongly support PNC’s forecast for real GDP growth of 2.5% — comparing 4th quarter this year to 2014.”
However, small and mid-sized business owners also find it increasingly difficult to hire qualified workers; 34% of survey respondents said it has become harder to hire qualified employees than it was a year ago, and 11% who are not hiring said they are not hiring because they cannot find the right skilled workers.
The PNC Economic Outlook survey was conducted between July 21 to August 20, 2015, by telephone within the US among 1,883 owners or senior decision-makers of small and mid-sized businesses with annual revenues of $100,000 to $250 million. The results include responses from 520 businesses nationally, while the remaining interviews were conducted among businesses within the states of Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania plus Washington, DC.
Hiring plans up for Q4, CareerBuilder survey finds
Daily News, October 8, 2015
Employers expect full-time, permanent hiring in the fourth quarter to be the most robust since 2006 and seasonal hiring to outpace last year’s projections by a healthy margin, according to CareerBuilder’s fourth-quarter 2015 US job forecast released today.
The survey found 34% of employers plan to add full-time, permanent employees in the fourth quarter, up from the 29% who planned to hire in the fourth quarter of 2014 and 25% in the last quarter of 2013.
And hiring rose when reviewing the third quarter, according to the survey; 39% of employers added full-time, permanent headcount in the third quarter, up from 34% in the third quarter of last year and 28% in 2013. Only 10% decreased headcount in the past quarter, unchanged from the third quarter of last year.
“Our study is reflecting a durability in the US economy and labor market,” said CareerBuilder CEO Matt Ferguson. “Employer confidence is widespread and the strongest we’ve seen since 2006. Hiring will continue on an upward trajectory for both permanent and seasonal positions, with pay expected to improve over last year as companies keep pace with minimum wage hikes and compete more aggressively for elusive talent.”
The survey was conducted online within the US by Harris Poll on behalf of CareerBuilder among 2,326 hiring and human resource managers. The survey was conducted between Aug.12 and Sept. 2, 2015.
The new ADP/Moody’s National Employment Report: 84% of all new job growth in October, 2015 came from Small and Mid-size Companies!
November 4, 2015
Private sector employment increased by 182,000 jobs from September to October (October’s jobs gain is a decrease from September’s 190,000 additions — a slight downward revision from a previously reported increase of 200,000 jobs), according to the October ADP National Employment Report®, which is produced by ADP® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
By Company Size
Small businesses: 90,000
1-19 employees 50,000
20-49 employees 4119,000
Medium businesses: 63,000
50-499 employees 63,000
Large businesses: 29,000
500-999 employees 7,000
1,000+ employees 22,000
By Sector
Goods producing 24,000
Service providing 158,000
Industry Snapshot
Construction 35,000
Manufacturing <-2,000>
Trade/transportation/utilities 35,000
Financial activities 9,000
Professional/business services 13,000
Payrolls for businesses with 49 or fewer employees increased by 90,000 jobs in October, almost double the revised September gain of 47,000. Employment among companies with 50-499 employees increased by 63,000 jobs, up 50% from the previous month. Employment gains at large companies – those with 500 or more employees – rose by 29,000 jobs in October after adding 101,000 the previous month. Companies with over 1,000 employees added 22,000 jobs, after adding 100,000 in September.
Goods-producing employment rose by 24,000 jobs in October, representing the best month in this sector since January of this year. The construction industry added 35,000 jobs in October, roughly matching September’s gain. Meanwhile, manufacturing remained in negative territory losing 2,000 jobs in October after shrinking by 17,000 in September.
Service-providing employment rose by 158,000 jobs in October, down from a downwardly revised 182,000 in September. The report indicates that professional/business services contributed 13,000 jobs in October, less than half the September number. Trade/transportation/utilities grew by 35,000, off slightly from the previous month. The 9,000 new jobs added in financial activities were the fewest in this industry in the last 6 months.
“Firm size contributions to October employment gains returned to the same pattern we had been seeing for some time prior to September as small businesses rebounded to account for almost half the jobs added,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, VP and head of the ADP Research Institute. “Large companies continue to be negatively impacted by trends such as low oil prices and the strong dollar driving weaker exports. On the other hand, small businesses can benefit from these same trends.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth as measured by the ADP Research Institute is not slowing meaningfully in contrast with the recent slowdown in the government’s data. The economy is creating close to 200,000 jobs per month. Job gains are broad based with energy and manufacturing alone subtracting from the top line. Small businesses, in particular, are contributing to the labor market’s solid performance.”
(The November 2015 ADP National Employment Report will be released at 8:15 a.m. ET on December 2, 2015).
Due to the important contribution that small businesses make to economic growth, employment data that are specific to businesses with 49 or fewer employees is reported each month in the ADP Small Business Report®, a subset of the ADP National Employment Report.
October 2015 Small Business Report Highlights
Total Small Business Employment: 90,000
●By Size
►1-19 employees 50,000
►20-49 employees 41,000
●By Sector for 1-49 Employees
►Goods Producing 13,000
►Service Producing 77,000
●By Sector for 1-19 Employees
►Goods Producing 9,000
►Service Producing 40,000
●By Sector for 20-49 Employees
►Goods Producing 4,000
►Service Producing 37,000
Bottom-line: To my audience of recruiters, always remember this: Our ‘bread and butter’, especially on the contingency side of the house, has historically been, and continues to be, small and medium-sized client companies. Along with the large companies, these companies need to be in included in your niche!
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary – August 2015
On October 16th, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the number of job openings decreased to 5,400,000 on the last business day of August. The number of hires and separations was little changed at 5,100,000 and 4,800,000, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was 1.9% for the 5th month in a row, and the layoffs and discharges rate was unchanged at 1.2%. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by four geographic regions.
Job Openings
Job openings decreased to 5,400,000 in August after reaching a series high of 5,700,000 in July. The job openings rate for August was 3.6%, the same rate as in April, May, and June. The number of job openings decreased in August for total private and government. Job openings declined in state and local government (-33,000) and nondurable goods manufacturing (-25,000). The number of openings was little changed in all 4 regions.
The number of job openings (not seasonally adjusted) increased over the 12 months ending in August for total nonfarm, total private and government. Job openings rose over the year for several industries with the largest increases occurring in professional and business services (+184,000) and in health care and social assistance (+103,000). Job openings decreased over the year in arts, entertainment, and recreation (-31,000) and in mining and logging (-14,000). Among the regions, the number of job openings increased over the year in the South (+198,000), Midwest (+109,000), and the West (+109,000).
Hires
The number of hires was 5,100,000 in August, about the same as in July. The hires rate was 3.6%. The number of hires was little changed for total private and government in August. There was little change in the number of hires in all industries and regions over the month.
Over the 12 months ending in August, the number of hires (not seasonally adjusted) rose for total nonfarm, total private, and government. At the industry level, hires increased in accommodation and food services (+165,000), state and local government (+129,000), health care and social assistance (+87,000), and federal government (+9,000). Among the regions, the number of hires rose in the Northeast (+151,000) and in the South (+144,000).
Net Change in Employment
Large numbers of hires and separations occur every month throughout the business cycle. Net employment change results from the relationship between hires and separations. When the number of hires exceeds the number of separations, employment rises, even if the hires level is steady or declining. Conversely, when the number of hires is less than the number of separations, employment declines, even if the hires level is steady or rising. Over the 12 months ending in August 2015, hires totaled 60.9 million and separations totaled 58.2 million, yielding a net employment gain of 2.7 million. These
totals include workers who may have been hired and separated more than once during the year.
(The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey results for September 2015 are scheduled to be released on Thursday, November 12, 2015).
As we recruiters know, that 5,400,000 number only represents 20% of the jobs currently available in the marketplace. The other 80% of job openings are unpublished and are filled through networking or word of mouth or by using a RECRUITER. So, those 5,400,000 published job openings now become a total of 27,000,000 published and hidden job orders.
In October there were 7,908,000 unemployed workers. What was the main reason why those workers were unemployed? Two Words: Structural Unemployment. If we can’t figure out how to educate and/or reeducate those 7,908,000 unemployed, then they will keep reappearing each month as a BLS unemployment statistic—as they have. In the meantime, our recruitment marketplace flourishes!
Online Labor Demand Increased 172,300 in October
November 4, 2015
• October increase offsets the smaller September loss of 138,500
• Most States saw increases, with large gains in Ohio, Texas, Florida and Pennsylvania
• Most MSAs also saw gains
Online advertised vacancies increased 172,300 to 5,452,500 in October, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series, released today. The September Supply/Demand rate stands at 1.50 unemployed for each advertised vacancy with a total of 2,600,000 more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies. The number of unemployed was around 8,000,000 in September.
“Labor demand for 2015 continues to follow the 2014 pattern of high monthly demand levels with modest net growth,” said Gad Levanon, Managing Director of Macroeconomic and Labor Market Research at The Conference Board. “The strong monthly demand level continues to help reduce the number of unemployed and maintain a positive outlook for the US labor market.”
In October, the Services/Production category saw gains in most areas, including Transportation (+48.1), Sales (+21.1), Installation/Repair (+12.9) and Food (+12.1). The Professional category was mixed with gains in Healthcare (+5.9), Arts/Media (+4.4) and Business/Finance (+3.9), but losses in Computer/Math (−5.3) and Community/Social Services (−2.4).
The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® Data Series (HWOL) measures the number of new, first-time online jobs and jobs reposted from the previous month for over 16,000 Internet job boards, corporate boards and smaller job sites that serve niche markets and smaller geographic areas.
(The November 2015 Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series will be released at 10:00 AM ET on Wednesday, December 2, 2015).
U-6 Update
In October, 2015 the regular unemployment number dropped to 5.0%, and the broader U-6 measure dropped to 9.8%, a little less than twice as high as the regular unemployment figure.
The above 9.8% is referred to as the U6 unemployment rate (found in the monthly BLS Employment Situation Summary, Table A-15; Table A-12 in 2008 and before). It counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts “marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons.” Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week. And the “marginally attached workers” include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work. The age considered for this calculation is 16 year and over.
Here is a look at the October U-6 numbers for the past 12 years:
October 2014 11.5%
October 2013 13.7%
October 2012 14.5%
October 2011 16.0%
October 2010 17.0%
October 2009 17.4%
October 2008 12.0%
October 2007 8.4%
October 2006 8.1%
October 2005 8.6%
October 2004 9.7%
October 2003 10.2%
The October BLS Analysis
The unemployment rate is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a division of the US Department of Labor. The rate is found by dividing the number of unemployed by the total civilian labor force. On November 6th, 2015, the BLS published the most recent unemployment rate for October, 2015 of 5.0% (actually it is 5.036, down by .014% . from 5.050% in September, 2015.
The unemployment rate was determined by dividing the unemployed of 7,908,000 (— down from the month before by 7,000—since October, 2014 this number has decreased by 1,075,000) by the total civilian labor force of 157,028,000 (up by 313,000 from September, 2015). Since October 2014, our total civilian labor force has increased by 785,000 workers.
(The continuing ‘Strange BLS Math’ saga): The BLS continues to increase the total Civilian Noninstitutional Population—this time up to 251,541,000. This is an increase of 216,000 from last month’s increase. In one year’s time, this population has increased by 2,884,000. The Civilian Noninstitutional Population has increased each month by…)
Up from September 2015 by 216,000
Up from August 2015 by 229,000
Up from July 2015 by 220,000
Up from June 2015 by 213,000
Up from May 2015 by 208,000
Up from April 2015 by 189,000
Up from March 2015 by 186,000
Up from February 2015 by 191,000
Up from January 2015 by 176,000
Up from December 2014 by 696,000
Up from November 2014 by 143,000
Up from October 2014 by 187,000
Up from September 2014 by 211,000
Up from August 2014 by 217,000
Up from July 2014 by 206,000
Up from June 2014 by 209,000
Up from May 2014 by 192,000
Up from April 2014 by 183,000
Up from March 2014 by 181,000
Up from February 2014 by 173,000
Up from January 2014 by 170,000
Up from December 2013 by 170,000
Up from November 2013 by 178,000
Up from October 2013 by 186,000
Up from September 2013 by 213,000
Up from August 2013 by 209,000
Up from July 2013 by 203,000
Up from June 2013 by 204,000
Up from May 2013 by 189,000
Up from April 2013 by 188,000
Up from March 2013 by 180,000
Up from February 2013 by 167,000
Up from January 2013 by 165,000
Up from December 2012 by 313,000
Up from November 2012 by 176,000
Up from October 2012 by 191,000
Up from September 2012 by 211,000
Up from August 2012 by 206,000
Up from July 2012 by 212,000
Up from June 2012 by 199,000
Up from May 2012 by 189,000
Up from April 2012 by 182,000
Up from March 2012 by 180,000
Up from February 2012 by 169,000
Up from January 2012 by 335,000
Up from December 2011 by 2,020,000
And this month the BLS has increased the Civilian Labor Force to 157,028,000 (up from September by 313,000).
Subtract the second number (‘civilian labor force’) from the first number (‘civilian noninstitutional population’) and you get 94,513,000 ‘Not in Labor Force’—down by 97,000 from last month’s 94,610,000. Since October, 2014, 2,099,000 US workers have vanished! Where did those 2,099,000 potential workers disappear to in one year’s time? I am assuming they still have to eat and pay their rent. They still need money, don’t they? The government tells us that these NILFs got discouraged and just gave up looking for a job. My monthly recurring question is: “If that is the case, how do they survive when they don’t earn any money because they don’t have a job? Are they ALL relying on the government to support them??”
This month our Employment Participation Rate—the population 16 years and older working or seeking work—remained at a significantly low of 62.4%. This is .2% below the historically low rate of 62.6% recorded in August—and, before that, the rate recorded in October 1977—9 months into Jimmy Carter’s presidency—38 years ago!
Final take on these numbers: Fewer people looking for work will always bring down the unemployment rate.
Anyway, back to the point I am trying to make. On the surface, these new unemployment rates are scary, but let’s look a little deeper and consider some other numbers.
The unemployment rate includes all types of workers—construction workers, government workers, etc. We recruiters, on the other hand, mainly place management, professional and related types of workers. That unemployment rate in October was 2.2% (this rate was .2% lower than last month’s 2.4%). Or, you can look at it another way. We usually place people who have college degrees. That unemployment rate in October was 2.5% (this rate was the same as the last two month’s 2.5%).
Now stay with me a little longer. This gets better. It’s important to understand (and none of the pundits mention this) that the unemployment rate, for many reasons, will never be 0%, no matter how good the economy is. Without boring you any more than I have already, let me add here that Milton Friedman (the renowned Nobel Prize-winning economist), is famous for the theory of the “natural rate of unemployment” (or the term he preferred, NAIRU, which is the acronym for Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment). Basically, this theory states that full employment presupposes an ‘unavoidable and acceptable’ unemployment rate of somewhere between 4-6% with it. Economists often settle on 5%, although the “New Normal Unemployment Rate” has been suggested to fall at 6.7%.
Nevertheless (if you will allow me to apply a ‘macro’ concept to a ‘micro’ issue), if this rate is applied to our main category of Management, Professional and Related types of potential recruits, and/or our other main category of College-Degreed potential recruits, we are well below the 4-6% threshold for full employment…we find no unemployment! None! Zilch! A Big Goose Egg!
THE IMPORTANCE OF GDP
“The economic goal of any nation, as of any individual, is to get the greatest results with the least effort. The whole economic progress of mankind has consisted in getting more production with the same labor…Translated into national terms, this first principle means that our real objective is to maximize production. In doing this, full employment—that is, the absence of involuntary idleness—becomes a necessary by-product. But production is the end, employment merely the means. We cannot continuously have the fullest production without full employment. But we can very easily have full employment without full production.”
–Economics in One Lesson, by Henry Hazlitt, Chapter X, “The Fetish of Full Employment”
On October 29th, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced the real gross domestic product (GDP) — the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes — increased at an annual rate of +1.5% in the third quarter of 2015, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.9%.
The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), state and local government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter “advance” estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency.
*The economy needs to expand at about +3% to keep the unemployment rate from rising.
(The “second” estimate for the 3rd Quarter 2015 GDP will be released on November 24, 2015).
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR UNEMPLOYMENT EVER TO BE ZERO
‘Unemployment’ is an emotional ‘trigger’ word…a ‘third rail’, if you will. It conjures up negative thoughts. But it is important to realize that, while we want everyone who wants a job to have the opportunity to work, unemployment can never be zero and, in fact, can be disruptive to an economy if it gets too close to zero. Very low unemployment can actually hurt the economy by creating an upward pressure on wages which invariably leads to higher production costs and prices. This can lead to inflation. The lowest the unemployment rate has been in the US was 2.5%. That was in May and June 1953 when the economy overheated due to the Korean War. When this bubble burst, it kicked off the Recession of 1953. A healthy economy will always include some percentage of unemployment.
There are five main sources of unemployment:
1. Cyclical (or demand-deficient) unemployment – This type of unemployment fluctuates with the business cycle. It rises during a recession and falls during the subsequent recovery. Workers who are most affected by this type of unemployment are laid off during a recession when production volumes fall and companies use lay-offs as the easiest way to reduce costs. These workers are usually rehired, some months later, when the economy improves.
2. Frictional unemployment – This comes from the normal turnover in the labor force. This is where new workers are entering the workforce and older workers are retiring and leaving vacancies to be filled by the new workers or those re-entering the workforce. This category includes workers who are between jobs.
3. Structural unemployment – This happens when the skills possessed by the unemployed worker don’t match the requirements of the opening—whether those be in characteristics and skills or in location. This can come from new technology or foreign competition (e.g., foreign outsourcing). This type of unemployment usually lasts longer than frictional unemployment because retraining, and sometimes relocation, is involved. Occasionally jobs in this category can just disappear overseas.
4. Seasonal unemployment – This happens when the workforce is affected by the climate or time of year. Construction workers and agricultural workers aren’t needed as much during the winter season because of the inclement weather. On the other hand, retail workers experience an increase in hiring shortly before, and during, the holiday season, but can be laid off shortly thereafter.
5. Surplus unemployment – This is caused by minimum wage laws and unions. When wages are set at a higher level, unemployment can often result. Why? To keep within the same payroll budget, the company must let go of some workers to pay the remaining workers a higher salary.
Other factors influencing the unemployment rate:
1. Length of unemployment – Some studies indicate that an important factor influencing a workers decision to accept a new job is directly related to the length of the unemployment benefit they are receiving. Currently, in 2015, workers in most states are eligible for up to 26 weeks of benefits from the regular state-funded unemployment compensation program, although eight states provide fewer weeks and two provide more. No additional weeks of federal benefits are available in any state: the temporary Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC) program expired at the end of 2013, and no state currently qualifies to offer more weeks under the permanent Extended Benefits (EB) program. Studies suggest that additional weeks of benefits reduce the incentive of the unemployed to seek and accept less desirable jobs.
2. Changes in GDP – Since hiring workers takes time, the improvement in the unemployment rate usually lags behind the improvement in the GDP.
WHERE RECRUITERS PLACE
Now back to the issue at hand, namely the recruiting, and placing, of professionals and those with college degrees.
If you take a look at the past few years of unemployment in the October “management, professional and related” types of worker category, you will find the following rates:
October 2014 2.7%
October 2013 3.4%
October 2012 3.8%
October 2011 4.4%
October 2010 4.5%
October 2009 4.7%
October 2008 3.0%
October 2007 2.0%
October 2006 1.9%
October 2005 2.2%
October 2004 2.4%
October 2003 2.9%
October 2002 2.8%
Here are the rates, during those same time periods, for “college-degreed” workers:
October 2014 3.1%
October 2013 3.8%
October 2012 3.7%
October 2011 4.4%
October 2010 4.7%
October 2009 4.7%
October 2008 3.1%
October 2007 2.1%
October 2006 1.9%
October 2005 2.3%
October 2004 2.5%
October 2003 3.1%
October 2002 3.0%
So, while October’s 2015 rates for these two categories, 2.2% and 2.5%, respectively, are trending very positively, when looking at the big picture, it’s not anything to be very happy about either—especially when we see how well we had it during the 2005-2007 time frame. But regardless, these unemployment numbers usually include a good number of job hoppers, job shoppers and rejects. We, on the other hand, are engaged by our client companies to find those candidates who are happy, well-appreciated, making good money and currently working and we entice them to move for even better opportunities—especially where new technologies are expanding. This will never change. And that is why, no matter the unemployment rate, we still need to market to find the best possible job orders and we still need to recruit to find the best possible candidates.
Below are the numbers for the over 25 year olds:
Less that H.S. diploma – Unemployment Rate
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
7.7% 7.4% 8.2% 7.9% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 9.7% 9.8% 10.4% 10.6% 10.9%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
12.0% 12.6% 13.3% 14.8% 15.5% 15.5% 15.4% 15.6% 15.0% 15.5% 15.0% 15.3%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
15.2% 15.6% 14.5% 14.7% 15.0% 14.1% 13.8% 14.0% 15.4% 15.3% 15.7% 15.3%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
14.2% 13.9% 13.7% 14.6% 14.7% 14.3% 15.0% 14.3% 14.0% 13.8% 13.2% 13.8%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
13.1% 12.9% 12.6% 12.5% 13.0% 12.6% 12.7% 12.0% 11.3% 12.2% 12.2% 11.7%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
12.0% 11.2% 11.1% 11.6% 11.1% 10.7% 11.0% 11.3% 10.3% 10.9% 10.8% 9.8%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
9.6% 9.8% 9.6% 8.9% 9.1% 9.1% 9.6% 9.1% 8.4% 7.9% 8.5% 8.6%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
8.5% 8.4% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.2% 8.3% 7.7% 7.9% 7.4%
H.S. Grad; no college – Unemployment Rate
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
4.6% 4.7% 5.1% 5.0% 5.2% 5.2% 5.3% 5.8% 6.3% 6.5% 6.9% 7.7%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
8.1% 8.3% 9.0% 9.3% 10.0% 9.8% 9.4% 9.7% 10.8% 11.2% 10.4% 10.5%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.5% 10.8% 10.6% 10.9% 10.8% 10.1% 10.3% 10.0% 10.1% 10.0% 9.8%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.4% 9.5% 9.5% 9.7% 9.5% 10.0% 9.3% 9.6% 9.7% 9.6% 8.8% 8.7%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.4% 8.3% 8.0% 7.9% 8.1% 8.4% 8.7% 8.8% 8.7% 8.4% 8.1% 8.0%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.1% 7.9% 7.6% 7.4% 7.4% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.3% 7.3% 7.1%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.5% 6.4% 6.3% 6.3% 6.5% 5.8% 6.1% 6.2% 5.3% 5.7% 5.6% 5.3%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.4% 5.8% 5.4% 5.5% 5.5% 5.2% 5.2%
Some College; or AA/AS – Unemployment Rate
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
3.7% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.6% 5.0% 5.1% 5.3% 5.5% 5.6%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
6.2% 7.0% 7.2% 7.4% 7.7% 8.0% 7.9% 8.2% 8.5% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
8.5% 8.0% 8.2% 8.3% 8.3% 8.2% 8.3% 8.7% 9.1% 8.5% 8.7% 8.1%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
8.0% 7.8% 7.4% 7.5% 8.0% 8.4% 8.3% 8.2% 8.4% 8.3% 7.6% 7.7%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
7.2% 7.3% 7.5% 7.6% 7.9% 7.5% 7.1% 6.6% 6.5% 6.9% 6.6% 6.9%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
7.0% 6.7% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5% 6.4% 6.0% 6.1% 6.0% 6.3% 6.4% 6.1%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.0% 6.2% 6.1% 5.7% 5.5% 5.0% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 4.8% 4.9% 4.9%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.2% 5.1% 4.8% 4.7% 4.4% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.3% 4.4%
BS/BS + – Unemployment Rate
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 2.6% 3.1% 3.2% 3.7%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
3.8% 4.1% 4.3% 4.4% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.9% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.9% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.4% 4.7% 5.1% 4.8%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.2% 4.3% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.1%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% 3.4% 3.3%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 3.1% 3.2% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 2.9%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.8% 2.7% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
Management, Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 3.3% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 4.0% 4.6% 5.0% 5.5% 5.4% 5.2% 4.7% 4.6% 4.6%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 4.5% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 4.4% 4.5% 4.7% 4.6%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.7% 4.4% 4.3% 4.0% 4.4% 4.7% 5.0% 4.9% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 4.2%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 3.7% 4.0% 4.4% 4.8% 4.5% 3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.9%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 4.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.5% 3.4% 3.1% 2.9%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 2.9% 3.1% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 2.7%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.9% 2.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.9% 3.1% 2.9% 2.4% 2.2%
Or employed…(,000)
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
52,165 52,498 52,681 52,819 52,544 52,735 52,655 52,626 53,104 53,485 53,274 52,548
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
52,358 52,196 52,345 52,597 52,256 51,776 51,810 51,724 52,186 52,981 52,263 52,131
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
52,159 52,324 52,163 52,355 51,839 51,414 50,974 50,879 51,757 51,818 52,263 51,704
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
51,866 52,557 53,243 53,216 52,778 52,120 51,662 51,997 52,665 52,864 52,787 52,808
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
53,152 53,208 53,771 54,055 54,156 53,846 53,165 53,696 54,655 55,223 54,951 54,635
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
54,214 54,563 54,721 54,767 54,740 54,323 54,064 54,515 55,013 55,155 55,583 54,880
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
55,096 55,501 56,036 55,896 56,202 55,714 55,381 55,646 56,365 56,759 57,110 56,888
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
57,367 57,596 57,805 57,953 58,155 57,710 57,392 57,288 58,105 58,456
And unemployed…(,000)
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
1,164 1,159 1,121 1,088 1,407 1,478 1,585 1,779 1,539 1,647 1,786 1,802
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
2,238 2,137 2,292 2,164 2,373 2,720 3,034 2,925 2,859 2,593 2,530 2,509
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
2,762 2,637 2,600 2,464 2,450 2,644 2,687 2,762 2,381 2,417 2,525 2,468
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
2,557 2,435 2,381 2,196 2,419 2,598 2,742 2,671 2,450 2,410 2,336 2,303
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
2,410 2,336 2,330 2,062 2,275 2,472 2,666 2,556 2,245 2,170 2,077 2,221
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
2,211 2,164 2,020 1,980 1,990 2,358 2,286 2,130 1,978 1,930 1,749 1,637
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
1,784 1,845 1,890 1,642 1,795 2,001 2,011 1,930 1,617 1,582 1,656 1,568
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
1,741 1,601 1,398 1,435 1,460 1,714 1,807 1,686 1,414 1,312
For a total Management, Professional & Related workforce of…(,000)
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
53,329 53,657 53,802 53,907 53,951 54,213 54,240 54,405 54,643 55,132 55,060 54,350
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
54,596 54,333 54,637 54,761 54,629 54,496 54,844 54,649 55,045 55,574 54,793 54,640
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
54,921 54,961 54,763 54,819 54,289 54,058 53,661 53,641 54,138 54,235 54,788 54,172
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
54,423 54,992 55,624 55,412 55,197 54,718 54,404 54,668 55,115 55,274 55,123 55,111
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
55,562 55,544 56,101 56,117 56,431 56,318 55,831 56,252 56,900 57,393 57,028 56,856
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
56,425 56,727 56,741 56,747 56,730 56,681 56,350 56,645 56,991 57,085 57,332 56,517
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
56,880 57,346 57,926 57,538 57,997 57,715 57,392 57,576 57,982 58,341 58,766 58,456
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
59,108 59,197 59,203 59,388 59,615 59,424 59,199 58,974 59,519 59,768
Management, Business and Financial Operations – Unemployment Rate
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 3.0% 3.6% 3.9%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.4% 5.2%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.2% 5.1% 5.4% 5.1% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.9% 4.3% 5.0% 5.5% 5.7%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
5.3% 4.9% 4.8% 4.6% 4.9% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 4.4%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.5% 4.4% 4.4% 4.0% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 4.1%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
4.0% 3.9% 3.5% 3.5% 3.8% 3.5% 3.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.7% 3.2% 3.1%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.4% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.9% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 2.2%
Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.9% 3.2% 3.6% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.9% 4.6% 4.3% 4.1% 4.3% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3% 4.4% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.3% 4.1% 3.9% 3.5% 4.0% 4.9% 5.3% 5.1% 4.4% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.8% 5.5% 5.2% 4.3% 3.9% 3.5% 3.8%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 4.6% 4.7% 4.0% 3.6% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 2.6% 2.9% 4.0% 4.1% 3.9% 3.1% 2.7% 2.9% 2.8%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.9% 2.7% 2.2% 2.3% 2.1% 3.2% 3.6% 3.3% 2.4% 2.2%
Sales & Related – Unemployment Rate
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
5.2% 5.2% 4.8% 4.3% 5.1% 5.6% 6.2% 6.3% 5.7% 6.1% 6.5% 7.0%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
7.7% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 8.9% 9.1% 8.3% 8.7% 8.9% 9.5% 9.1% 8.9%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.2% 9.7% 9.2% 9.6% 9.4% 10.1% 9.0% 9.4% 9.1% 8.8% 8.3%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.3% 9.0% 8.5% 8.5% 9.4% 9.7% 9.4% 8.6% 9.4% 8.2% 7.8% 7.7%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.2% 7.9% 8.1% 7.6% 7.9% 8.4% 8.3% 8.6% 7.9% 7.0% 7.3% 7.0%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.5% 8.2% 7.7% 6.9% 7.1% 6.7% 6.9% 7.2% 7.5% 7.3% 7.0% 6.3%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
7.1% 7.7% 6.8% 5.8% 6.8% 6.1% 6.2% 5.6% 5.4% 5.2% 5.3% 5.0%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.8% 5.2% 5.8% 5.5% 5.8% 5.6% 5.8% 5.4% 5.6% 5.3%