Bob Marshall’s December 2016 BLS Analysis for Recruiters; 1/6/17
December BLS Preface
TBMG Coaching Updates and News
Bob Marshall – Coaching & Speaking Updates:
Mike Gionta’s free 8th Annual Recruiting Firm Owner Telesummit, the week of March 13th , 2017
During the week of March 13th, I have been asked by Mike to present at Mike Gionta’s free 8th Annual Recruiting Firm Owner Telesummit.
The tentative title of my presentation will be: “The New Value Proposition: ETV = AEW + IECS – RPF.”
There’s no travel, no time away from the office and Mike is giving access to all the sessions FREE. Space is limited. More details to be announced at a later date.
Top Echelon, Tuesday Recruiter Coaching Series, Webinar, April 11th, 2017
My next Top Echelon webinar will be on Tuesday afternoon, April 11th, 2017, at 1pm, Eastern Time. This Recruiter Coaching Series will be for TE members. The exact title and description of this presentation, which will focus on Marketing Value, will be announced at a later date.
California Staffing Professionals Annual Conference, Kona Kai Club, San Diego, California, May 4-5, 2017
I will be presenting to the CSP Annual Conference on Thursday, May 4th, 2017 and Friday, May 5th, 2017 in San Diego, CA. I will conduct a Rookie Retreat all day on Thursday—from 9:00am to 4:00pm. On Friday, I will conduct a 90 minute breakout session entitled, “Establishing Elegant Rapport through Elegant Communication.”
Taking the first step…
Over 36 years ago I began a career that turned out to be the most dynamic and rewarding professional move I have ever made. With the opportunity to earn an unlimited income at my fingertips, I began my career as a Recruiter.
Soon I became a student of the business and transitioned into Coaching. I traveled extensively and learned and listened and I packaged my material in a unique way. I studied many of the top producers in the recruiting industry and developed a series of training tools based on their proven success—training techniques that work time and time again.
I developed these tools and coaching techniques to help others achieve their goals as top producing professional recruiters. I continue to base all of my coaching and training tools on the same “nuts and bolts” approach I used as a recruiter.
I realize that taking that first step to engage a Coach to help you reach a higher level of production is not as easy as it sounds. After all, your training investment – and your time – are important and deserve every consideration. I share your feelings. I believe that how you approach your recruitment career matters…that you should get what you pay for, and then some…that you should enjoy your time with your Coach as you are benefiting from it…and that you should never settle for the ordinary.
If you are ready to take the first step, you can read descriptions of my coaching plans, and all of my products, on my website @ www.themarshallplan.org. Then, call me directly at 770-898-5550 or email me @ bob@themarshallplan.org.
“I’ve known, worked with, observed, analyzed and watched Bob’s evolution since 1980—over 30 years!! In my opinion, there is not a person in his space more valuable to you than Bob Marshall. As a student of our business, a trainer in our business and an overall consultant in our business, Bob has no peer in my opinion. I don’t believe there is another person you could work with that would bring to each of you, as well as your AE’s, a greater insight into the dynamics of our profession. This insight, coupled with his passion, has enabled me to rate him #1 in his field.”
—Alan Schonberg (legendary CEO, Management Recruiters International, February, 2013)
Preface
Many of you continue to correspond with me about these monthly BLS analyses and have asked if it is OK to use them in your presentations. The answer is, of course, yes! That is why I spend the time to assemble this information. I would encourage any of you who have that desire to weave any of the information I have printed below into your presentations. I write these analyses for the benefit of our recruitment industry in general and for the members of my distribution list in particular. So use this info as you deem appropriate.
I also write these monthly BLS analyses to not only counterbalance the negative/incorrect press reporting of our general economic state but, more than that, to remind all of my recruitment readers that, at the level we work, there is no unemployment and so we must recruit to find the candidates our client companies so desperately need!
So, to my recruiter colleagues, get out there and do what your name implies…RECRUIT! When your client companies have unique and difficult positions to fill, they need you. When they are being picky, they need you. When they are longing for more production from fewer employees, they need you. Go fill those needs. These should be the halcyon days in the recruitment arena!
Finally, always remember that we are not in an HR business, but in a ‘circumventing the time factor in the hiring sequence’ business—and adding value to our client companies.
CEO confidence at 6-year high
Daily News, January 5, 2017
CEO confidence rose sharply in the 4th quarter after a slight retreat in the prior quarter, according to The Conference Board’s measure of CEO confidence. In the 4th quarter, the measure jumped to a level of 65, up from 50 in the 3rd quarter of 2016.
A reading of more than 50 reflects more positive than negative responses.
“CEO Confidence surged in the final quarter of 2016, reaching its highest level in nearly 6 years,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. “CEOs were considerably more optimistic about short-term growth prospects in the US than in the 3rd quarter, and to a lesser degree about prospects in developed and emerging markets. Regarding prices in 2017, chief executives expect to hike prices by less than 1.5% on average.”
CEOs’ short-term outlook for the US economy also improved markedly, with approximately 67% expecting better economic conditions over the next 6 months, up from 25% last quarter. The outlook for their own industries was also more favorable, with 58% of CEOs anticipating an improvement over the next 6 months, compared to about 23% in the 3rd quarter.
Globally, CEOs’ assessment of current conditions improved for most economies, with the United States posting the largest gain. CEOs’ assessment of conditions in India was unchanged, but remained positive. Despite improving sentiment in Europe, China, Brazil and Japan, chief executives remain moderately pessimistic.
New Year’s Resolutions: 62% of US workers plan a work-related change
Daily News, December 20, 2016
New Year’s resolutions for 62% of American workers include making a work-related change, according to Spherion Staffing’s latest WorkSphere survey. Changes include overall performance improvement, learning a new professional skill, finding a new job, negotiating a higher salary, embarking on a new career or starting a new business.
The survey also found workers remain uncertain about the jobs outlook for the New Year: 27% of all workers agreed that 2017 will be better, while only slightly less, 24%, disagree. Conversely, millennials tend to be more upbeat about 2017, with 41% agreeing 2017 will be better than 2016 for jobs.
“With the New Year approaching, it’s the perfect time for employees to take a step back and determine if they are truly happy with the trajectory of their careers, and whether they would like to make any changes to improve their current professional situations,” said Spherion Division President Sandy Mazur. “It’s equally important, however, for employers to take notice of employees’ priorities for the New Year to better meet their expectations and maximize the potential for retention and job happiness.”
Not surprisingly, “making more money” topped the list of career-related resolutions for all workers in 2017, at 28%. However, the survey also found 40% of workers are interested in relocating for professional reasons, and the same is true for 62% of millennials. Furthermore, 90% of workers who have job or career-related resolutions are interested in changing industries.
The Spherion survey was conducted online in November 2016 with market research data collection organization Research Now.
CTG, Glassdoor and Futurestep unveil 2017 predictions
Daily News, December 19, 2016
As 2016 comes to a close, staffing pundits look to the New Year and what it may bring for the industry. Predictions call for everything from data overload to job automation.
Computer Task Group Inc., a Buffalo, NY-based IT staffing and solutions firm, put together predictions for 2017 for hiring and staffing, workplace dynamics, and the downstream impacts of technology’s continued evolution. Jim Nichiporuk, VP, and Rob Keranen, managing director, of CTG’s Strategic Staffing practice, predict the following:
*Recruiting processing outsourcing and contingent hiring continues to gain momentum.
*New technology will create a bigger “talent gap.”
*The “human cloud” will become more mainstream.
*The Internet of Things causes data overload.
Glassdoor’s chief economist, Dr. Andrew Chamberlain, released his suggestions for the 5 biggest jobs trends to watch in 2017.
“With record numbers of unfilled jobs, historically low unemployment and rising pay, America’s labor market is one of the strongest in decades. In many ways, 2016 was a landmark year for hiring,” said Chamberlain. “However, technology and automation are changing the way we work forever, creating both opportunities and challenges for 2017 and beyond. In this environment, the future of jobs, employer branding and recruiting is top of mind for job seekers, employees and employers.”
Chamberlain’s predictions include:
*Data science will transform HR into “people science.”
*The gig economy will reach its limits.
*Automation will impact all jobs — not just drivers.
*Employers will take action against the gender pay gap.
*Employers will shift away from flashy benefits packages.
Futurestep, a division of Korn Ferry, also released its 2017 predictions for talent acquisition. The list is based on insights from recruitment experts worldwide and reflects trends that have emerged during the past 12 months as well as those predicted to dominate during the coming year.
According to Futurestep CEO Byrne Mulrooney, the ubiquitous presence of technology in the talent world is a common theme that ties together the trends.
“It doesn’t matter what industry our clients are in — everything from manufacturing to professional services and retail — every company can now be classified as a technology company,” said Mulrooney. “This has forever changed the way talent acquisition experts do their jobs, and what candidates have come to expect.”
Futurestep’s 2017 trends predictions are:
*Rise of the gig economy, or “Me Inc.”
*Programming the robot: Changing roles of the vital many
*Pack your bags: The vagabond HQ — and employee
*Trusted advisor: How big data is changing the role of the recruiter
*One platform = true intelligence
*Seeing into the future: Data that matters long after hire
*Big data, big brother: Keeping information safe
*Culture is the key to retaining employees and enhancing business performance
*Swipe left/swipe right: Social media and recruiting
*Embrace diversity to plug skills gap
Two CDI Shareholders call for evaluating strategic alternatives such as a SALE
Daily News, December 16, 2016
Two shareholder in CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI) called on the engineering and IT staffing provider (also owner of Management Recruiters International) to evaluate strategic alternatives, including a possible sale, and announced they intend to nominate independent directors for election at CDI’s 2017 annual meeting of shareholders.
Bradley Radoff and Joshua Schechter on Wednesday issued an open letter to CDI Board Chairman Walter Garrison stating that combined, they are the beneficial owners of approximately 7.8% of the outstanding shares of CDI and its largest unaffiliated shareholder group.
The letter cited, “disappointing operating performance, poor corporate governance and significant share price underperformance.” It referred to CDI’s long-term share price performance as “abysmal” and said CDI’s “woeful share price performance is particularly striking,” with CDI’s shares trading below its price in 1995 while two of the company’s peers, Jacobs Engineering and Robert Half, are up over tenfold during the same timeframe.
“CDI’s failure to create value for its shareholders can be directly related to a montage of poor corporate governance, conflicts of interest and excessive compensation at the board level,” the investors wrote.
CDI’s revenue fell 10.0% year over year in the third quarter to $220,000,000.
“We strongly believe the best course of action is for the board to immediately engage a financial advisor to explore strategic alternatives including a sale or a merger to the highest bidder,” the investors wrote. “Since our initial Schedule 13D filing, we have been contacted by multiple parties that have attempted to engage CDI in potential acquisition discussions. We are confident that there is significant value that can be realized through a sale of CDI which would exceed any purported risk adjusted standalone plan, especially a plan that relies on the same board whose long-term performance has been a disaster for shareholders.”
As part of a strategic alternatives review, the shareholders also demanded the board suspend its search for a permanent CEO. In September, President and CEO Scott Freidheim resigned from the Philadelphia-based firm; CFO Michael Castleman was promoted to president and interim CEO.
Businesses optimistic for 2017, but face employee recruitment challenges, survey finds
Daily News, December 12, 2016
Despite strong optimism, employers continue to face economic challenges relating to talent recruitment, according to the Employer Associations of America’s 2017 National Business Trends Survey.
The survey found 62% of employers reported recruiting is becoming more difficult, with 31% indicating dissatisfaction with their current recruiting efforts. Additionally, 32% indicated they had hired slightly to significantly more than planned in 2016, and for 2017, the survey found 48% of employers planned to increase staffing, with talent acquisition remaining a top priority.
The positions most difficult to recruit include skilled production workers, professional workers and high-potential middle managers, while the most difficult to retain are entry-level workers.
Respondents also reported concerns over wages, benefit costs, cost of regulatory compliance and skilled labor shortages. When asked about serious short-term business challenges within the next year and long-term challenges within the next 5 years, survey respondent’s serious concerns include:
*Skilled labor shortage: 41% short-term, 50% long-term
*Ability to pay for benefit costs: 37% short-term, 56% long-term
*Cost of regulatory compliance: 37% short-term, 47% long-term
*Ability to pay competitive wages: 33% short-term, 44% long-term
Survey data also found 76% of business owners expect their 2016 overall business results to be the same or better than 2015. Executives also felt strong optimism for 2017 as compared to 2016, with 89% indicating overall business results will be the same or better in 2017. And although wages and benefits remain challenging, 81% of organizations increased wages in 2016, with 35% paying variable or bonus awards. 75% of employers plan to increase wages in 2017, with 34% looking at variable/bonus pay.
The 2017 Survey included 1,270 participating organizations with responses covering 2,104 employer locations throughout the US.
The new ADP/Moody’s National Employment Report: Over 58% of all new job growth in December, 2016 came from Small and Mid-size Companies!
January 5, 2017
Private sector employment increased by 153,000 jobs from November to December, (a 63,000 job decrease from November’s 216,000) according to the December ADP National Employment Report®, which is produced by ADP® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
By Company Size
Small businesses: 18,000
1-19 employees <-3,000>
20-49 employees 21,000
Medium businesses: 71,000
50-499 employees 71,000
Large businesses: 63,000
500-999 employees 8,000
1,000+ employees 56,000
By Sector
- Goods-producing <-16,000>
- Natural resources/mining <-5,000>
- Construction <-2,000>
- Manufacturing <-9,000>
- Service-providing 169,000
- Trade/transportation/utilities 82,000
- Information <-6,000>
- Financial activities 10,000
- Professional/business services 24,000
- Professional/technical services 18,000
- Management of companies/enterprises 2,000
- Administrative/support services 3,000
- Education/health services 29,000
- Health care/social assistance 26,000
- Education 2,000
- Leisure/hospitality 18,000
- Other services 11,000
Franchise Employment
Franchise Jobs 23,300
“As we exit 2016, it’s interesting to note that the private sector generated an average of 174,000 jobs per month, down from 209,000 in 2015, “said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and head of the ADP Research Institute. “And while jobs gains in December were slightly below our monthly average, the U.S. labor market has experienced unprecedented seven years of growth that has brought us to near full employment. As we enter 2017, the tightening labor market will likely slow the growth.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth remains strong but is slowing. The gap between employment growth in the service economy and losses on the goods side persists. Smaller companies are struggling to maintain payrolls while large companies are expanding at a healthy pace.”
(The January 2017 ADP National Employment Report will be released at 8:15 a.m. ET on February 1, 2017.)
Due to the important contribution that small businesses make to economic growth, employment data that is specific to businesses with 49 or fewer employees is reported each month in the ADP Small Business Report®, a subset of the ADP National Employment Report.
December 2016 Small Business Report Highlights
Total Small Business Employment: 18,000
| ●By Size | |
| ►1-19 employees | <-3,000> |
| ►20-49 employees | 21,000 |
| ●By Sector for 1-49 Employees | |
| ►Goods Producing | <-16,000> |
| ►Service Producing | 34,000 |
| ●By Sector for 1-19 Employees | |
| ►Goods Producing | <-11,000> |
| ►Service Producing | 8,000 |
| ●By Sector for 20-49 Employees | |
| ►Goods Producing | <-4.000> |
| ►Service Producing | 25,000 |
Bottom-line: To my audience of recruiters, always remember this: Our ‘bread and butter’, especially on the contingency side of the house, has historically been, and continues to be, small and medium-sized client companies. Along with the large companies, these companies need to be in included in your niche!
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary – October 2016
On December 7th, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the number of job openings was little changed at 5,500,000 on the last business day of October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were also little changed at 5,100,000 and 4,900,000, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.1% and the layoffs and discharges rate was also unchanged at 1.0%. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by 4 geographic regions.
Job Openings
On the last business day of October, there were 5,500,000 job openings, little changed from September. The job openings rate was 3.7% in October. The number of job openings was little changed for total private and for government. Job openings increased in health care and social assistance (+139,000). Job openings decreased in professional and business services (-187,000), federal government (-13,000), and mining and logging (-8,000). The number of job openings was little changed in all 4 regions.
Hires
The number of hires was essentially unchanged at 5,100,000 in October. The hires rate was 3.5%. The number of hires was little changed for total private and for government. Hires decreased in state and local government education (-26,000) and was little changed in all other industries. The number of hires was little changed in all 4 regions.
Separations
Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.
There were 4,900,000 total separations in October, little changed from September. The total separations rate in October was 3.4%. The number of total separations was little changed for total private and decreased for government (-39,000). Total separations decreased in state and local government education (-26,000), information (-20,000), and federal government (-7,000). The number of total separations was little changed in all four regions.
The number of quits was little changed in October at 3,000,000. The quits rate was 2.1%. Over the month, the number of quits was little changed for total private, and decreased for government (-26,000). Quits decreased in information (-18,000) and state and local government, excluding education (-16,000). The number of quits was little changed in all four regions.
There were 1,500,000 layoffs and discharges in October, essentially unchanged from September. The layoffs and discharges rate was unchanged at 1.0% in October. The number of layoffs and discharges was little changed for total private and for government. The layoffs and discharges level increased in health care and social assistance (+46,000) but decreased in state and local education(-18,000). The number of layoffs and discharges was little changed in all 4 regions.
In October, the number of other separations was little changed for total nonfarm, total private, and government. Other separations increased in retail trade (+20,000) but decreased in federal government (-3,000). The number of other separations was little changed in all other industries and in all 4 regions.
Net Change in Employment
Large numbers of hires and separations occur every month throughout the business cycle. Net employment change results from the relationship between hires and separations. When the number of hires exceeds the number of separations, employment rises, even if the hires level is steady or declining. Conversely, when the number of hires is less than the number of separations, employment declines, even if the hires level is steady or rising. Over the 12 months ending in October, hires totaled 62,600,000 and separations totaled 60,100,000, yielding a net employment gain of 2,500,000. These totals include workers who may have been hired and separated more than once during the year.
____________
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey results for November 2016 are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, January 10, 2017 at 10:00 am (EST).
As we recruiters know, that 5,500,000 number only represents 20% of the jobs currently available in the marketplace. The other 80% of job openings are unpublished and are filled through networking or word of mouth or by using a RECRUITER. So, those 5,500,000 published job openings now become a total of 27.500,000 published AND hidden job orders.
In December there were 7,529,000 unemployed workers. What was the main reason why those workers were unemployed? Two Words: Structural Unemployment. If we can’t figure out how to educate and/or reeducate those 7,529,000 unemployed, then they will keep reappearing each month as a BLS unemployment statistic—as they have. In the meantime, our recruitment marketplace flourishes!
Online Job Ads Increased 74,000 in December
January 4, 2017
*The December gain followed a November decrease of 115,300
*Most States showed small gains
*Most occupations showed gains over the month
Online advertised vacancies increased 74,000 to 4,797,000 in December, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series, released today. The November Supply/Demand rate stands at 1.57 unemployed for each advertised vacancy with a total of 2,700,000 more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies. The number of unemployed was approximately 7,400,000 in November.
“The HWOL series ended 2016 on a positive note, with a 74,000 increase,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “The number of online job ads has been fluctuating around a steady trend in the 2nd half of 2016.”
The Professional occupational category saw small losses in Management (-0.8), Business/Finance (-0.1), and gains Computer/Math (8.7) and Health (10.6). The Services/Production occupational category saw gains in most occupational groups led by Sales (14.6) and Office/Admin (21.3).
Occupational Changes for the Month of December
In December, 7 of the 10 largest online occupational categories posted increases:
Healthcare practitioners and technical ads increased 10,600 to 621,200. The supply/demand rate for these occupations lies at 0.19, i.e. over 5 advertised openings per unemployed job-seeker.
Computer and mathematical science ads increased 8,700 to 509,800. The supply/demand rate lies at 0.31, i.e. over 3 advertised openings per unemployed job-seeker.
Management ads decreased 800 to 406,100. The supply/demand rate lies at 0.99 i.e. 1 unemployed job-seeker for every advertised available opening.
Sales and related ads increased 14,600 to 476,400. The supply/demand rate for these occupations lies at 1.71, more than 1 unemployed job-seeker for every advertised available opening.
Office and administrative support ads increased 21,300 to 507,800. The supply/demand rate lies at 1.53, i.e. over 1 unemployed job-seeker for every advertised available opening.
Construction and extraction ads increased 7,800 to 134,600. The supply/demand rate lies at 4.82, i.e. almost 5 unemployed job-seeker for every advertised available opening.
The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® Data Series (HWOL) measures the number of new, first-time online jobs and jobs reposted from the previous month for over 16,000 Internet job boards, corporate boards and smaller job sites that serve niche markets and smaller geographic areas.
(The January 2017 Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series will be released at 10:00 AM ET on Wednesday, February 1, 2017).
U-6 Update
In December, 2016 the regular unemployment number rose one-tenth to 4.7%, and the broader U-6 measure fell to 9.2%, two-tenths less than twice as high as the regular unemployment figure.
The above 9.2% is referred to as the U6 unemployment rate (found in the monthly BLS Employment Situation Summary, Table A-15; Table A-12 in 2008 and before). It counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts “marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons.” Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week. And the “marginally attached workers” include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work. The age considered for this calculation is 16 year and over.
Here is a look at the December U-6 numbers for the past 14 years:
December 2015 9.9%
December 2014 11.2%
December 2013 13.1%
December 2012 14.4%
December 2011 15.2%
December 2010 16.6%
December 2009 17.2%
December 2008 13.7%
December 2007 8.7%
December 2006 7.9%
December 2005 8.6%
December 2004 9.3%
December 2003 9.9%
December 2002 9.9%
The December BLS Analysis
The unemployment rate is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a division of the US Department of Labor. The rate is found by dividing the number of unemployed by the total civilian labor force. On January 6th, 2017, the BLS published the most recent unemployment rate for December 2016 of 4.7% (actually it is 4.716%, up by .076 from 4.640% in November, 2016.
The unemployment rate was determined by dividing the unemployed of 7,529,000 (—up from the month before by 120,000—since December, 2015 this number has decreased by 398,000) by the total civilian labor force of 159,640,000 (up by 184,000 from November, 2016). Since December 2015, our total civilian labor force has increased by 1,683,000 workers.
(The continuing ‘Strange BLS Math’ saga): The BLS continues to increase the total Civilian Noninstitutional Population—this time up to 254,742,000. This is an increase of 202,000 from last month’s increase of 219,000. In one year’s time, this population has increased by 2,806,000. The Civilian Noninstitutional Population has increased each month by…)
| Up from November 2016 | by | 202,000 |
| Up from October 2016 | by | 219,000 |
| Up from September 2016 | by | 230,000 |
| Up from August 2016 | by | 237,000 |
| Up from July 2016 | by | 234,000 |
| Up from June 2016 | by | 223,000 |
| Up from May 2016 | by | 223,000 |
| Up from April 2016 | by | 205,000 |
| Up from March 2016 | by | 201,000 |
| Up from February 2016 | by | 191,000 |
| Up from January 2016 | by | 180,000 |
| Up from December 2015 | by | 461,000 |
| Up from November 2015 | by | 189,000 |
| Up from October 2015 | by | 206,000 |
| Up from September 2015 | by | 216,000 |
| Up from August 2015 | by | 229,000 |
| Up from July 2015 | by | 220,000 |
| Up from June 2015 | by | 213,000 |
| Up from May 2015 | by | 208,000 |
| Up from April 2015 | by | 189,000 |
| Up from March 2015 | by | 186,000 |
| Up from February 2015 | by | 191,000 |
| Up from January 2015 | by | 176,000 |
| Up from December 2014 | by | 696,000 |
| Up from November 2014 | by | 143,000 |
| Up from October 2014 | by | 187,000 |
| Up from September 2014 | by | 211,000 |
| Up from August 2014 | by | 217,000 |
| Up from July 2014 | by | 206,000 |
| Up from June 2014 | by | 209,000 |
| Up from May 2014 | by | 192,000 |
| Up from April 2014 | by | 183,000 |
| Up from March 2014 | by | 181,000 |
| Up from February 2014 | by | 173,000 |
| Up from January 2014 | by | 170,000 |
| Up from December 2013 | by | 170,000 |
| Up from November 2013 | by | 178,000 |
| Up from October 2013 | by | 186,000 |
| Up from September 2013 | by | 213,000 |
| Up from August 2013 | by | 209,000 |
| Up from July 2013 | by | 203,000 |
| Up from June 2013 | by | 204,000 |
| Up from May 2013 | by | 189,000 |
| Up from April 2013 | by | 188,000 |
| Up from March 2013 | by | 180,000 |
| Up from February 2013 | by | 167,000 |
| Up from January 2013 | by | 165,000 |
| Up from December 2012 | by | 313,000 |
| Up from November 2012 | by | 176,000 |
| Up from October 2012 | by | 191,000 |
| Up from September 2012 | by | 211,000 |
| Up from August 2012 | by | 206,000 |
| Up from July 2012 | by | 212,000 |
| Up from June 2012 | by | 199,000 |
| Up from May 2012 | by | 189,000 |
| Up from April 2012 | by | 182,000 |
| Up from March 2012 | by | 180,000 |
| Up from February 2012 | by | 169,000 |
| Up from January 2012 | by | 335,000 |
| Up from December 2011 | by | 2,020,000 |
And this month the BLS has increased the Civilian Labor Force to 159,640,000 (up from November by 184,000).
Subtract the second number (‘civilian labor force’) from the first number (‘civilian noninstitutional population’) and you get 95,102,000 ‘Not in Labor Force’—up by 18,000 from last month’s 95,084,000. The government tells us that most of these NILFs got discouraged and just gave up looking for a job. My monthly recurring question is: “If that is the case, how do they survive when they don’t earn any money because they don’t have a job? Are they ALL relying on the government to support them??”
This month our Employment Participation Rate—the population 16 years and older working or seeking work—rose .1% to 62.7%. This is .3% above the historically low rate of 62.4% recorded in September 2015—and, before that, the rate recorded in October 1977—9 months into Jimmy Carter’s presidency—38 years ago!
Final take on these numbers: Fewer people looking for work will always bring down the unemployment rate.
Anyway, back to the point I am trying to make. On the surface, these new unemployment rates are scary, but let’s look a little deeper and consider some other numbers.
The unemployment rate includes all types of workers—construction workers, government workers, etc. We recruiters, on the other hand, mainly place management, professional and related types of workers. That unemployment rate in December was 2.2% (this rate was .1% below last month’s 2.3%). Or, you can look at it another way. We usually place people who have college degrees. That unemployment rate in December was 2.5% (this rate was .2% above last month’s 2.3%).
Now stay with me a little longer. This gets better. It’s important to understand (and none of the pundits mention this) that the unemployment rate, for many reasons, will never be 0%, no matter how good the economy is. Without boring you any more than I have already, let me add here that Milton Friedman (the renowned Nobel Prize-winning economist), is famous for the theory of the “natural rate of unemployment” (or the term he preferred, NAIRU, which is the acronym for Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment). Basically, this theory states that full employment presupposes an ‘unavoidable and acceptable’ unemployment rate of somewhere between 4-6% with it. Economists often settle on 5%, although the “New Normal Unemployment Rate” has been suggested to fall at 6.7%.
Nevertheless (if you will allow me to apply a ‘macro’ concept to a ‘micro’ issue), if this rate is applied to our main category of Management, Professional and Related types of potential recruits, and/or our other main category of College-Degreed potential recruits, we are well below the 4-6% threshold for full employment…we find no unemployment! None! Zilch! A Big Goose Egg!
THE IMPORTANCE OF GDP
“The economic goal of any nation, as of any individual, is to get the greatest results with the least effort. The whole economic progress of mankind has consisted in getting more production with the same labor…Translated into national terms, this first principle means that our real objective is to maximize production. In doing this, full employment—that is, the absence of involuntary idleness—becomes a necessary by-product. But production is the end, employment merely the means. We cannot continuously have the fullest production without full employment. But we can very easily have full employment without full production.”
—Economics in One Lesson, by Henry Hazlitt, Chapter X, “The Fetish of Full Employment”
On December 22nd, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced the real gross domestic product (GDP) — the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes — increased at an annual rate of 3.5% (.3% above the second estimate) in the third quarter of 2016 according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.4%.
The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.2%. With this third estimate for the third quarter, nonresidential fixed investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and state and local government spending increased more than previously estimated, but the general picture of economic growth remains the same. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE, exports, private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and federal government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected an upturn in private inventory investment, an acceleration in exports, a smaller decrease in state and local government spending, an upturn in federal government spending, and a smaller decrease in residential investment, that were partly offset by a smaller increase in PCE and an acceleration in imports. Updates to GDP BEA releases 3 vintages of the current quarterly estimate for GDP: “Advance” estimates are released near the end of the first month following the end of the quarter and are based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency; “second” and “third” estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively, and are based on more detailed and more comprehensive data as they become available. Annual and comprehensive updates are typically released in late July. Annual updates generally cover at least the 3 most recent calendar years (and their associated quarters) and incorporate newly available major annual source data as well as some changes in methods and definitions to improve the accounts. Comprehensive (or benchmark) updates are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as major conceptual improvements.
(The “advance” estimate for the 4th Quarter 2016 GDP will be released on January 27th, 2016)
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR UNEMPLOYMENT EVER TO BE ZERO
‘Unemployment’ is an emotional ‘trigger’ word…a ‘third rail’, if you will. It conjures up negative thoughts. But it is important to realize that, while we want everyone who wants a job to have the opportunity to work, unemployment can never be zero and, in fact, can be disruptive to an economy if it gets too close to zero. Very low unemployment can actually hurt the economy by creating an upward pressure on wages which invariably leads to higher production costs and prices. This can lead to inflation. The lowest the unemployment rate has been in the US was 2.5%. That was in May and June 1953 when the economy overheated due to the Korean War. When this bubble burst, it kicked off the Recession of 1953. A healthy economy will always include some percentage of unemployment.
There are five main sources of unemployment:
- Cyclical (or demand-deficient) unemployment – This type of unemployment fluctuates with the business cycle. It rises during a recession and falls during the subsequent recovery. Workers who are most affected by this type of unemployment are laid off during a recession when production volumes fall and companies use lay-offs as the easiest way to reduce costs. These workers are usually rehired, some months later, when the economy improves.
- Frictional unemployment – This comes from the normal turnover in the labor force. This is where new workers are entering the workforce and older workers are retiring and leaving vacancies to be filled by the new workers or those re-entering the workforce. This category includes workers who are between jobs.
- Structural unemployment – This happens when the skills possessed by the unemployed worker don’t match the requirements of the opening—whether those be in characteristics and skills or in location. This can come from new technology or foreign competition (e.g., foreign outsourcing). This type of unemployment usually lasts longer than frictional unemployment because retraining, and sometimes relocation, is involved. Occasionally jobs in this category can just disappear overseas.
- Seasonal unemployment – This happens when the workforce is affected by the climate or time of year. Construction workers and agricultural workers aren’t needed as much during the winter season because of the inclement weather. On the other hand, retail workers experience an increase in hiring shortly before, and during, the holiday season, but can be laid off shortly thereafter.
- Surplus unemployment – This is caused by minimum wage laws and unions. When wages are set at a higher level, unemployment can often result. Why? To keep within the same payroll budget, the company must let go of some workers to pay the remaining workers a higher salary.
Other factors influencing the unemployment rate:
- Length of unemployment – Some studies indicate that an important factor influencing a workers decision to accept a new job is directly related to the length of the unemployment benefit they are receiving. Currently, in 2015, workers in most states are eligible for up to 26 weeks of benefits from the regular state-funded unemployment compensation program, although eight states provide fewer weeks and two provide more. No additional weeks of federal benefits are available in any state: the temporary Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC) program expired at the end of 2013, and no state currently qualifies to offer more weeks under the permanent Extended Benefits (EB) program. Studies suggest that additional weeks of benefits reduce the incentive of the unemployed to seek and accept less desirable jobs.
- Changes in GDP – Since hiring workers takes time, the improvement in the unemployment rate usually lags behind the improvement in the GDP.
WHERE RECRUITERS PLACE
Now back to the issue at hand, namely the recruiting, and placing, of professionals and those with college degrees.
If you take a look at the past few years of unemployment in the December “management, professional and related” types of worker category, you will find the following rates:
December 2015 2.0%
December 2014 2.7%
December 2013 2.9%
December 2012 3.9%
December 2011 4.2%
December 2010 4.6%
December 2009 4.6%
December 2008 3.3%
December 2007 2.0%
December 2006 1.7%
December 2005 2.0%
December 2004 2.5%
December 2003 2.8%
December 2002 2.8%
Here are the rates, during those same time periods, for “college-degreed” workers:
December 2015 2.5%
December 2014 2.8%
December 2013 3.4%
December 2012 4.0%
December 2011 4.0%
December 2010 4.8%
December 2009 4.9%
December 2008 3.7%
December 2007 2.1%
December 2006 1.9%
December 2005 2.2%
December 2004 2.5%
December 2003 3.0%
December 2002 2.9%
The December 2016 rates for these two categories, 2.2% and 2.3%, respectively, are trending lower again this month and are still close to the halcyon numbers we attained in the 2005, 2006 and 2007 time frames. But regardless, these unemployment numbers usually include a good number of job hoppers, job shoppers and rejects. We, on the other hand, are engaged by our client companies to find those candidates who are happy, well-appreciated, making good money and currently working and we entice them to move for even better opportunities—especially where new technologies are expanding. This will never change. And that is why, no matter the unemployment rate, we still need to market to find the best possible job orders and we still need to recruit to find the best possible candidates.
Below are the numbers for the over 25 year olds:
Less than H.S. diploma – Unemployment Rate
| 1/08 | 2/08 | 3/08 | 4/08 | 5/08 | 6/08 | 7/08 | 8/08 | 9/08 | 10/08 | 11/08 | 12/08 |
| 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 10.9% |
| 1/09 | 2/09 | 3/09 | 4/09 | 5/09 | 6/09 | 7/09 | 8/09 | 9/09 | 10/09 | 11/09 | 12/09 |
| 12.0% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 14.8% | 15.5% | 15.5% | 15.4% | 15.6% | 15.0% | 15.5% | 15.0% | 15.3% |
| 1/10 | 2/10 | 3/10 | 4/10 | 5/10 | 6/10 | 7/10 | 8/10 | 9/10 | 10/10 | 11/10 | 12/10 |
| 15.2% | 15.6% | 14.5% | 14.7% | 15.0% | 14.1% | 13.8% | 14.0% | 15.4% | 15.3% | 15.7% | 15.3% |
| 1/11 | 2/11 | 3/11 | 4/11 | 5/11 | 6/11 | 7/11 | 8/11 | 9/11 | 10/11 | 11/11 | 12/11 |
| 14.2% | 13.9% | 13.7% | 14.6% | 14.7% | 14.3% | 15.0% | 14.3% | 14.0% | 13.8% | 13.2% | 13.8% |
| 1/12 | 2/12 | 3/12 | 4/12 | 5/12 | 6/12 | 7/12 | 8/12 | 9/12 | 10/12 | 11/12 | 12/12 |
| 13.1% | 12.9% | 12.6% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 11.7% |
| 1/13 | 2/13 | 3/13 | 4/13 | 5/13 | 6/13 | 7/13 | 8/13 | 9/13 | 10/13 | 11/13 | 12/13 |
| 12.0% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 9.8% |
| 1/14 | 2/14 | 3/14 | 4/14 | 5/14 | 6/14 | 7/14 | 8/14 | 9/14 | 10/14 | 11/14 | 12/14 |
| 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.8% |
| 1/15 | 2/15 | 3/15 | 4/15 | 5/15 | 6/15 | 7/15 | 8/15 | 9/15 | 10/15 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% |
| 1/16 | 2/16 | 3/16 | 4/16 | 5/16 | 6/16 | 7/16 | 8/16 | 9/16 | 10/16 | 11/16 | 12/16 |
| 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.9% |
H.S. Grad; no college – Unemployment Rate
| 1/08 | 2/08 | 3/08 | 4/08 | 5/08 | 6/08 | 7/08 | 8/08 | 9/08 | 10/08 | 11/08 | 12/08 |
| 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% |
| 1/09 | 2/09 | 3/09 | 4/09 | 5/09 | 6/09 | 7/09 | 8/09 | 9/09 | 10/09 | 11/09 | 12/09 |
| 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 10.5% |
| 1/10 | 2/10 | 3/10 | 4/10 | 5/10 | 6/10 | 7/10 | 8/10 | 9/10 | 10/10 | 11/10 | 12/10 |
| 10.1% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.8% |
| 1/11 | 2/11 | 3/11 | 4/11 | 5/11 | 6/11 | 7/11 | 8/11 | 9/11 | 10/11 | 11/11 | 12/11 |
| 9.4% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.7% |
| 1/12 | 2/12 | 3/12 | 4/12 | 5/12 | 6/12 | 7/12 | 8/12 | 9/12 | 10/12 | 11/12 | 12/12 |
| 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.0% |
| 1/13 | 2/13 | 3/13 | 4/13 | 5/13 | 6/13 | 7/13 | 8/13 | 9/13 | 10/13 | 11/13 | 12/13 |
| 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% |
| 1/14 | 2/14 | 3/14 | 4/14 | 5/14 | 6/14 | 7/14 | 8/14 | 9/14 | 10/14 | 11/14 | 12/14 |
| 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% |
| 1/15 | 2/15 | 3/15 | 4/15 | 5/15 | 6/15 | 7/15 | 8/15 | 9/15 | 10/15 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% |
| 1/16 | 2/16 | 3/16 | 4/16 | 5/16 | 6/16 | 7/16 | 8/16 | 9/16 | 10/16 | 11/16 | 12/16 |
| 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% |
Some College; or AA/AS – Unemployment Rate
| 1/08 | 2/08 | 3/08 | 4/08 | 5/08 | 6/08 | 7/08 | 8/08 | 9/08 | 10/08 | 11/08 | 12/08 |
| 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% |
| 1/09 | 2/09 | 3/09 | 4/09 | 5/09 | 6/09 | 7/09 | 8/09 | 9/09 | 10/09 | 11/09 | 12/09 |
| 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% |
| 1/10 | 2/10 | 3/10 | 4/10 | 5/10 | 6/10 | 7/10 | 8/10 | 9/10 | 10/10 | 11/10 | 12/10 |
| 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.1% |
| 1/11 | 2/11 | 3/11 | 4/11 | 5/11 | 6/11 | 7/11 | 8/11 | 9/11 | 10/11 | 11/11 | 12/11 |
| 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% |
| 1/12 | 2/12 | 3/12 | 4/12 | 5/12 | 6/12 | 7/12 | 8/12 | 9/12 | 10/12 | 11/12 | 12/12 |
| 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% |
| 1/13 | 2/13 | 3/13 | 4/13 | 5/13 | 6/13 | 7/13 | 8/13 | 9/13 | 10/13 | 11/13 | 12/13 |
| 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% |
| 1/14 | 2/14 | 3/14 | 4/14 | 5/14 | 6/14 | 7/14 | 8/14 | 9/14 | 10/14 | 11/14 | 12/14 |
| 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% |
| 1/15 | 2/15 | 3/15 | 4/15 | 5/15 | 6/15 | 7/15 | 8/15 | 9/15 | 10/15 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.1% |
| 1/16 | 2/16 | 3/16 | 4/16 | 5/16 | 6/16 | 7/16 | 8/16 | 9/16 | 10/16 | 11/16 | 12/16 |
| 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% |
BS/BS + – Unemployment Rate
| 1/08 | 2/08 | 3/08 | 4/08 | 5/08 | 6/08 | 7/08 | 8/08 | 9/08 | 10/08 | 11/08 | 12/08 |
| 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% |
| 1/09 | 2/09 | 3/09 | 4/09 | 5/09 | 6/09 | 7/09 | 8/09 | 9/09 | 10/09 | 11/09 | 12/09 |
| 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% |
| 1/10 | 2/10 | 3/10 | 4/10 | 5/10 | 6/10 | 7/10 | 8/10 | 9/10 | 10/10 | 11/10 | 12/10 |
| 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% |
| 1/11 | 2/11 | 3/11 | 4/11 | 5/11 | 6/11 | 7/11 | 8/11 | 9/11 | 10/11 | 11/11 | 12/11 |
| 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.1% |
| 1/12 | 2/12 | 3/12 | 4/12 | 5/12 | 6/12 | 7/12 | 8/12 | 9/12 | 10/12 | 11/12 | 12/12 |
| 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% |
| 1/13 | 2/13 | 3/13 | 4/13 | 5/13 | 6/13 | 7/13 | 8/13 | 9/13 | 10/13 | 11/13 | 12/13 |
| 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.3% |
| 1/14 | 2/14 | 3/14 | 4/14 | 5/14 | 6/14 | 7/14 | 8/14 | 9/14 | 10/14 | 11/14 | 12/14 |
| 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% |
| 1/15 | 2/15 | 3/15 | 4/15 | 5/15 | 6/15 | 7/15 | 8/15 | 9/15 | 10/15 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| 1/16 | 2/16 | 3/16 | 4/16 | 5/16 | 6/16 | 7/16 | 8/16 | 9/16 | 10/16 | 11/16 | 12/16 |
| 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.5% |
Management, Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate
| 1/08 | 2/08 | 3/08 | 4/08 | 5/08 | 6/08 | 7/08 | 8/08 | 9/08 | 10/08 | 11/08 | 12/08 |
| 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% |
| 1/09 | 2/09 | 3/09 | 4/09 | 5/09 | 6/09 | 7/09 | 8/09 | 9/09 | 10/09 | 11/09 | 12/09 |
| 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.6% |
| 1/10 | 2/10 | 3/10 | 4/10 | 5/10 | 6/10 | 7/10 | 8/10 | 9/10 | 10/10 | 11/10 | 12/10 |
| 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% |
| 1/11 | 2/11 | 3/11 | 4/11 | 5/11 | 6/11 | 7/11 | 8/11 | 9/11 | 10/11 | 11/11 | 12/11 |
| 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| 1/12 | 2/12 | 3/12 | 4/12 | 5/12 | 6/12 | 7/12 | 8/12 | 9/12 | 10/12 | 11/12 | 12/12 |
| 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% |
| 1/13 | 2/13 | 3/13 | 4/13 | 5/13 | 6/13 | 7/13 | 8/13 | 9/13 | 10/13 | 11/13 | 12/13 |
| 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% |
| 1/14 | 2/14 | 3/14 | 4/14 | 5/14 | 6/14 | 7/14 | 8/14 | 9/14 | 10/14 | 11/14 | 12/14 |
| 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% |
| 1/15 | 2/15 | 3/15 | 4/15 | 5/15 | 6/15 | 7/15 | 8/15 | 9/15 | 10/15 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% |
| 1/16 | 2/16 | 3/16 | 4/16 | 5/16 | 6/16 | 7/16 | 8/16 | 9/16 | 10/16 | 11/16 | 12/16 |
| 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.2% |
Or employed…(,000)
| 1/08 | 2/08 | 3/08 | 4/08 | 5/08 | 6/08 | 7/08 | 8/08 | 9/08 | 10/08 | 11/08 | 12/08 |
| 52,165 | 52,498 | 52,681 | 52,819 | 52,544 | 52,735 | 52,655 | 52,626 | 53,104 | 53,485 | 53,274 | 52,548 |
| 1/09 | 2/09 | 3/09 | 4/09 | 5/09 | 6/09 | 7/09 | 8/09 | 9/09 | 10/09 | 11/09 | 12/09 |
| 52,358 | 52,196 | 52,345 | 52,597 | 52,256 | 51,776 | 51,810 | 51,724 | 52,186 | 52,981 | 52,263 | 52,131 |
| 1/10 | 2/10 | 3/10 | 4/10 | 5/10 | 6/10 | 7/10 | 8/10 | 9/10 | 10/10 | 11/10 | 12/10 |
| 52,159 | 52,324 | 52,163 | 52,355 | 51,839 | 51,414 | 50,974 | 50,879 | 51,757 | 51,818 | 52,263 | 51,704 |
| 1/11 | 2/11 | 3/11 | 4/11 | 5/11 | 6/11 | 7/11 | 8/11 | 9/11 | 10/11 | 11/11 | 12/11 |
| 51,866 | 52,557 | 53,243 | 53,216 | 52,778 | 52,120 | 51,662 | 51,997 | 52,665 | 52,864 | 52,787 | 52,808 |
| 1/12 | 2/12 | 3/12 | 4/12 | 5/12 | 6/12 | 7/12 | 8/12 | 9/12 | 10/12 | 11/12 | 12/12 |
| 53,152 | 53,208 | 53,771 | 54,055 | 54,156 | 53,846 | 53,165 | 53,696 | 54,655 | 55,223 | 54,951 | 54,635 |
| 1/13 | 2/13 | 3/13 | 4/13 | 5/13 | 6/13 | 7/13 | 8/13 | 9/13 | 10/13 | 11/13 | 12/13 |
| 54,214 | 54,563 | 54,721 | 54,767 | 54,740 | 54,323 | 54,064 | 54,515 | 55,013 | 55,155 | 55,583 | 54,880 |
| 1/14 | 2/14 | 3/14 | 4/14 | 5/14 | 6/14 | 7/14 | 8/14 | 9/14 | 10/14 | 11/14 | 12/14 |
| 55,096 | 55,501 | 56,036 | 55,896 | 56,202 | 55,714 | 55,381 | 55,646 | 56,365 | 56,759 | 57,110 | 56,888 |
| 1/15 | 2/15 | 3/15 | 4/15 | 5/15 | 6/15 | 7/15 | 8/15 | 9/15 | 10/15 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| 57,367 | 57,596 | 57,805 | 57,953 | 58,155 | 57,710 | 57,392 | 57,288 | 58,105 | 58,456 | 58,667 | 59,030 |
| 1/16 | 2/16 | 3/16 | 4/16 | 5/16 | 6/16 | 7/16 | 8/16 | 9/16 | 10/16 | 11/16 | 12/16 |
| 59,014 | 59,583 | 60,080 | 59,690 | 59,613 | 59,181 | 58,434 | 58,526 | 59,599 | 59,766 | 59,707 | 60,069 |
And unemployed…(,000)
| 1/08 | 2/08 | 3/08 | 4/08 | 5/08 | 6/08 | 7/08 | 8/08 | 9/08 | 10/08 | 11/08 | 12/08 |
| 1,164 | 1,159 | 1,121 | 1,088 | 1,407 | 1,478 | 1,585 | 1,779 | 1,539 | 1,647 | 1,786 | 1,802 |
| 1/09 | 2/09 | 3/09 | 4/09 | 5/09 | 6/09 | 7/09 | 8/09 | 9/09 | 10/09 | 11/09 | 12/09 |
| 2,238 | 2,137 | 2,292 | 2,164 | 2,373 | 2,720 | 3,034 | 2,925 | 2,859 | 2,593 | 2,530 | 2,509 |
| 1/10 | 2/10 | 3/10 | 4/10 | 5/10 | 6/10 | 7/10 | 8/10 | 9/10 | 10/10 | 11/10 | 12/10 |
| 2,762 | 2,637 | 2,600 | 2,464 | 2,450 | 2,644 | 2,687 | 2,762 | 2,381 | 2,417 | 2,525 | 2,468 |
| 1/11 | 2/11 | 3/11 | 4/11 | 5/11 | 6/11 | 7/11 | 8/11 | 9/11 | 10/11 | 11/11 | 12/11 |
| 2,557 | 2,435 | 2,381 | 2,196 | 2,419 | 2,598 | 2,742 | 2,671 | 2,450 | 2,410 | 2,336 | 2,303 |
| 1/12 | 2/12 | 3/12 | 4/12 | 5/12 | 6/12 | 7/12 | 8/12 | 9/12 | 10/12 | 11/12 | 12/12 |
| 2,410 | 2,336 | 2,330 | 2,062 | 2,275 | 2,472 | 2,666 | 2,556 | 2,245 | 2,170 | 2,077 | 2,221 |
| 1/13 | 2/13 | 3/13 | 4/13 | 5/13 | 6/13 | 7/13 | 8/13 | 9/13 | 10/13 | 11/13 | 12/13 |
| 2,211 | 2,164 | 2,020 | 1,980 | 1,990 | 2,358 | 2,286 | 2,130 | 1,978 | 1,930 | 1,749 | 1,637 |
| 1/14 | 2/14 | 3/14 | 4/14 | 5/14 | 6/14 | 7/14 | 8/14 | 9/14 | 10/14 | 11/14 | 12/14 |
| 1,784 | 1,845 | 1,890 | 1,642 | 1,795 | 2,001 | 2,011 | 1,930 | 1,617 | 1,582 | 1,656 | 1,568 |
| 1/15 | 2/15 | 3/15 | 4/15 | 5/15 | 6/15 | 7/15 | 8/15 | 9/15 | 10/15 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| 1,741 | 1,601 | 1,398 | 1,435 | 1,460 | 1,714 | 1,807 | 1,686 | 1,414 | 1,312 | 1,276 | 1,208 |
| 1/16 | 2/16 | 3/16 | 4/16 | 5/16 | 6/16 | 7/16 | 8/16 | 9/16 | 10/16 | 11/16 | 12/16 |
| 1,404 | 1,456 | 1,477 | 1,251 | 1,305 | 1,712 | 1,782 | 1,869 | 1,652 | 1,506 | 1,382 | 1,361 |
For a total Management, Professional & Related workforce of…(,000)
| 1/08 | 2/08 | 3/08 | 4/08 | 5/08 | 6/08 | 7/08 | 8/08 | 9/08 | 10/08 | 11/08 | 12/08 |
| 53,329 | 53,657 | 53,802 | 53,907 | 53,951 | 54,213 | 54,240 | 54,405 | 54,643 | 55,132 | 55,060 | 54,350 |
| 1/09 | 2/09 | 3/09 | 4/09 | 5/09 | 6/09 | 7/09 | 8/09 | 9/09 | 10/09 | 11/09 | 12/09 |
| 54,596 | 54,333 | 54,637 | 54,761 | 54,629 | 54,496 | 54,844 | 54,649 | 55,045 | 55,574 | 54,793 | 54,640 |
| 1/10 | 2/10 | 3/10 | 4/10 | 5/10 | 6/10 | 7/10 | 8/10 | 9/10 | 10/10 | 11/10 | 12/10 |
| 54,921 | 54,961 | 54,763 | 54,819 | 54,289 | 54,058 | 53,661 | 53,641 | 54,138 | 54,235 | 54,788 | 54,172 |
| 1/11 | 2/11 | 3/11 | 4/11 | 5/11 | 6/11 | 7/11 | 8/11 | 9/11 | 10/11 | 11/11 | 12/11 |
| 54,423 | 54,992 | 55,624 | 55,412 | 55,197 | 54,718 | 54,404 | 54,668 | 55,115 | 55,274 | 55,123 | 55,111 |
| 1/12 | 2/12 | 3/12 | 4/12 | 5/12 | 6/12 | 7/12 | 8/12 | 9/12 | 10/12 | 11/12 | 12/12 |
| 55,562 | 55,544 | 56,101 | 56,117 | 56,431 | 56,318 | 55,831 | 56,252 | 56,900 | 57,393 | 57,028 | 56,856 |
| 1/13 | 2/13 | 3/13 | 4/13 | 5/13 | 6/13 | 7/13 | 8/13 | 9/13 | 10/13 | 11/13 | 12/13 |
| 56,425 | 56,727 | 56,741 | 56,747 | 56,730 | 56,681 | 56,350 | 56,645 | 56,991 | 57,085 | 57,332 | 56,517 |
| 1/14 | 2/14 | 3/14 | 4/14 | 5/14 | 6/14 | 7/14 | 8/14 | 9/14 | 10/14 | 11/14 | 12/14 |
| 56,880 | 57,346 | 57,926 | 57,538 | 57,997 | 57,715 | 57,392 | 57,576 | 57,982 | 58,341 | 58,766 | 58,456 |
| 1/15 | 2/15 | 3/15 | 4/15 | 5/15 | 6/15 | 7/15 | 8/15 | 9/15 | 10/15 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| 59,108 | 59,197 | 59,203 | 59,388 | 59,615 | 59,424 | 59,199 | 58,974 | 59,519 | 59,768 | 59,943 | 60,238 |
| 1/16 | 2/16 | 3/16 | 4/16 | 5/16 | 6/16 | 7/16 | 8/16 | 9/16 | 10/16 | 11/16 | 12/16 |
| 60,418 | 61,039 | 61,557 | 60,941 | 60,918 | 60,893 | 60,216 | 60,395 | 61,251 | 61,272 | 61,089 | 61,430 |
Management, Business and Financial Operations – Unemployment Rate
| 1/08 | 2/08 | 3/08 | 4/08 | 5/08 | 6/08 | 7/08 | 8/08 | 9/08 | 10/08 | 11/08 | 12/08 |
| 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% |
| 1/09 | 2/09 | 3/09 | 4/09 | 5/09 | 6/09 | 7/09 | 8/09 | 9/09 | 10/09 | 11/09 | 12/09 |
| 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% |
| 1/10 | 2/10 | 3/10 | 4/10 | 5/10 | 6/10 | 7/10 | 8/10 | 9/10 | 10/10 | 11/10 | 12/10 |
| 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% |
| 1/11 | 2/11 | 3/11 | 4/11 | 5/11 | 6/11 | 7/11 | 8/11 | 9/11 | 10/11 | 11/11 | 12/11 |
| 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% |
| 1/12 | 2/12 | 3/12 | 4/12 | 5/12 | 6/12 | 7/12 | 8/12 | 9/12 | 10/12 | 11/12 | 12/12 |
| 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% |
| 1/13 | 2/13 | 3/13 | 4/13 | 5/13 | 6/13 | 7/13 | 8/13 | 9/13 | 10/13 | 11/13 | 12/13 |
| 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% |
| 1/14 | 2/14 | 3/14 | 4/14 | 5/14 | 6/14 | 7/14 | 8/14 | 9/14 | 10/14 | 11/14 | 12/14 |
| 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% |
| 1/15 | 2/15 | 3/15 | 4/15 | 5/15 | 6/15 | 7/15 | 8/15 | 9/15 | 10/15 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% |
| 1/16 | 2/16 | 3/16 | 4/16 | 5/16 | 6/16 | 7/16 | 8/16 | 9/16 | 10/16 | 11/16 | 12/16 |
| 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% |
Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate
| 1/08 | 2/08 | 3/08 | 4/08 | 5/08 | 6/08 | 7/08 | 8/08 | 9/08 | 10/08 | 11/08 | 12/08 |
| 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% |
| 1/10 | 2/10 | 3/10 | 4/10 | 5/10 | 6/10 | 7/10 | 8/10 | 9/10 | 10/10 | 11/10 | 12/10 |
| 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.8% |
| 1/11 | 2/11 | 3/11 | 4/11 | 5/11 | 6/11 | 7/11 | 8/11 | 9/11 | 10/11 | 11/11 | 12/11 |
| 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| 1/12 | 2/12 | 3/12 | 4/12 | 5/12 | 6/12 | 7/12 | 8/12 | 9/12 | 10/12 | 11/12 | 12/12 |
| 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% |
| 1/13 | 2/13 | 3/13 | 4/13 | 5/13 | 6/13 | 7/13 | 8/13 | 9/13 | 10/13 | 11/13 | 12/13 |
| 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.7% |
| 1/14 | 2/14 | 3/14 | 4/14 | 5/14 | 6/14 | 7/14 | 8/14 | 9/14 | 10/14 | 11/14 | 12/14 |
| 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| 1/15 | 2/15 | 3/15 | 4/15 | 5/15 | 6/15 | 7/15 | 8/15 | 9/15 | 10/15 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% |
| 1/16 | 2/16 | 3/16 | 4/16 | 5/16 | 6/16 | 7/16 | 8/16 | 9/16 | 10/16 | 11/16 | 12/16 |
| 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% |
Sales & Related – Unemployment Rate
| 1/08 | 2/08 | 3/08 | 4/08 | 5/08 | 6/08 | 7/08 | 8/08 | 9/08 | 10/08 | 11/08 | 12/08 |
| 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% |
| 1/09 | 2/09 | 3/09 | 4/09 | 5/09 | 6/09 | 7/09 | 8/09 | 9/09 | 10/09 | 11/09 | 12/09 |
| 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.9% |
| 1/10 | 2/10 | 3/10 | 4/10 | 5/10 | 6/10 | 7/10 | 8/10 | 9/10 | 10/10 | 11/10 | 12/10 |
| 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% |
| 1/11 | 2/11 | 3/11 | 4/11 | 5/11 | 6/11 | 7/11 | 8/11 | 9/11 | 10/11 | 11/11 | 12/11 |
| 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% |
| 1/12 | 2/12 | 3/12 | 4/12 | 5/12 | 6/12 | 7/12 | 8/12 | 9/12 | 10/12 | 11/12 | 12/12 |
| 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% |
| 1/13 | 2/13 | 3/13 | 4/13 | 5/13 | 6/13 | 7/13 | 8/13 | 9/13 | 10/13 | 11/13 | 12/13 |
| 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% |
| 1/14 | 2/14 | 3/14 | 4/14 | 5/14 | 6/14 | 7/14 | 8/14 | 9/14 | 10/14 | 11/14 | 12/14 |
| 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% |
| 1/15 | 2/15 | 3/15 | 4/15 | 5/15 | 6/15 | 7/15 | 8/15 | 9/15 | 10/15 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% |
| 1/16 | 2/16 | 3/16 | 4/16 | 5/16 | 6/16 | 7/16 | 8/16 | 9/16 | 10/16 | 11/16 | 12/16 |
| 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.6% |