BLS Analysis for April 2018

Bob Marshall’s April 2018 BLS Analysis for Recruiters; 5/4/18

 

April BLS Preface

 

TBMG Coaching Updates and News

 

Bob Marshall – Coaching & Speaking Updates:

 

California Staffing Professionals (CSP) Annual Conference, Westin Mission Hills, Rancho Mirage, California, June 7th-9th, 2018

 

Again, this year, I will be presenting at the CSP Annual Conference that will be held from Thursday, June 7th, 2018 to Saturday, June 9th, 2018; this time at the Westin Resort & Spa in Rancho Mirage, CA.  On Friday morning, from 9:00am – 10:30am, I will conduct a 90-minute session entitled, “Human NLP – What Is It & How To Use It To Close Clients & Candidates”.  Then, from 10:45am – 12:15pm, I will conduct a second 90-minute session entitled, “Words Matter, Messages That Work, – Voicemails and Emails.”

 

* Special San Diego area Note:  For those of you in the San Diego area, if you are interested in my in-office training (individual and desk-level) and are available for that training during June 11-June 18, please let me know for a special offer.  Since I will be in the San Diego area for my CSP presentations, I will offer a discount on my usual fees plus NO charge for my airfare or other expenses.  First come, first served, so contact me for specific details as soon as possible.  Thanks!

 

WHY A COACH?

 

“Teachers open the door; but you must enter by yourself”—Chinese Proverb

 

In the opinion of ex-Dallas Cowboys football coach Tom Landry who coached from 1960-1988,

 

“A coach is someone who tells you what you don’t want to hear,

who has you see what you don’t want to see,

so you can be who you have always known you could be.”

 

Is now the time to pick a Coach?

 

I realize that taking that first step to engage a Coach to help you reach a higher level of production is not as easy as it sounds.  After all, your training investment – and your time – are important and deserve every consideration.  I share your feelings.  I believe that how you approach your recruitment career matters…that you should get what you pay for, and then some…that you should enjoy your time with your Coach as you are benefiting from it…and that you should never settle for the ordinary.

 

So for those of you who have been toying with the idea of working with a recruitment coach, now may be the time.  Only you can come to that decision point.

 

When considering ‘individual change management’, consider this theosophical proverb:  “When the student is ready, the teacher will appear!”

 

“Bob Marshall is a speaker’s speaker and a trainer’s trainer.  He has a gift for taking the cornerstones of the business and compelling people and teams to not only hone their skills but to execute. We’ve had Bob engage our teams a number of times over the last few years and our groups always come away more focused on the core and more energized to perform. Come ready to learn because this man knows the business and will make you better!”

 

—David Alexander, President, Adecco & Soliant, January, 2017

 

If you are ready to take the first step, you can read descriptions of my coaching plans, and all of my products, on my website @ www.themarshallplan.org.  Then, call me directly at 770-898-5550 or email me @ bob@themarshallplan.org.

 

Preface

 

Many of you continue to correspond with me about these monthly BLS analyses and have asked if it is OK to use them in your presentations.  The answer is, of course, yes!  That is why I spend the time to assemble this information.  I would encourage any of you who have that desire to weave any of the information I have printed below into your presentations.  I write these analyses for the benefit of our recruitment industry in general and for the members of my distribution list in particular.  So use this info as you deem appropriate.

 

I also write these monthly BLS analyses to not only counterbalance the negative/incorrect press reporting of our general economic state but, more than that, to remind all of my recruitment readers that, at the level we work, there is no unemployment and so we must recruit to find the candidates our client companies so desperately need!

 

So, to my recruiter colleagues, get out there and do what your name implies…RECRUIT!  When your client companies have unique and difficult positions to fill, they need you.  When they are being picky, they need you.  When they are longing for more production from fewer employees, they need you.  Go fill those needs.  These should be the halcyon days in the recruitment arena!

 

Finally, always remember that we are not in an HR business, but in a ‘circumventing the time factor in the hiring sequence’ business—and adding value to our client companies.

 

 

Randstad Workmonitor:  62% US Employees prefer working at the Office instead of Remotely

Daily News, April 26, 2018

 

Despite the shift toward a more flexible workplace, 62% of US employees prefer going to the office, according to Randstad’s first-quarter Workmonitor survey released today.

 

The percentage is higher among young workers; 65% of those aged 18 to 24 said they prefer working in a traditional office environment, challenging the widespread perception that millennial and Gen Z workers tend to prefer digital interactions over personal ones, according to the report.

 

Although flexible and remote work arrangements are a top priority for employees, that’s not necessarily the case for employers, who often don’t offer any or provide enough tools to fully support them.  Additional survey findings include:

 

*66% of workers said they like the option of occasionally working from home or another location but are not able to do so.

 

*36% of respondents report their workplaces support working from home anytime and anywhere they want.

 

*35% disagree that their employers provide the necessary technical equipment to enable them to work from home.

 

*30% of workers said they regularly have online or virtual team meetings via video conferencing.

 

The survey also found 66% of workers prefer to occasionally work from home or another location.  And 80% of workers said they like agile work — defined in the study as the ability to work from anywhere, anytime.

 

“The takeaway for employers:  Workers appreciate having the option to work when and where they want, but also value interacting with colleagues face-to-face in the workplace,” said Randstad North America CHRO Jim Link.  “Employers who strike the right balance — making flexible work arrangements as accessible as possible through technology while also cultivating a thriving office culture — will succeed in attracting and retaining top talent.”

 

The Randstad Workmonitor covers more than 30 countries around the world.  The first-quarter study was conducted online from Jan. 10 to Jan. 26, 2018.  The minimum sample size is 400 interviews per country.

 

 

In Bids for Talent, US Companies Increase Teleworking, Lower Educational Requirements for Some:  The Conference Board

Daily News, April 12, 2018

 

Companies are pursuing additional strategies to recruit untapped talent and retain workers as the labor market tightens, according to the Global Labor Market Outlook 2018 report released today by The Conference Board.  US businesses in particular are lowering educational requirements for some cohorts of workers and increasing the use of teleworking.  And companies worldwide are hiring more women and mature workers, along with increasing automation.

 

By 2019, labor market tightness could reach levels not seen for decades, especially in the US, China, Japan, UK and several countries in Central and Eastern Europe, according to the report.  With the large generation of baby boomers continuing to leave the labor force in large numbers for 10 to 15 more years, labor shortages are likely to get worse before they get better and may become a drag on growth if governments and employers are not able to accelerate their capacity to produce.

 

To help counteract labor shortages, the report includes several takeaways for employers, including:

 

*Education.  Reducing educational requirements is gaining momentum in the US.  During the financial crisis and in the 2 to 3 years following it, the share of workers with a bachelor’s or some postsecondary education increased among new workers.  But since 2012 and 2013, this trend of upskilling has mostly reversed.  These results suggest that, in recent years, as the pool of available workers became depleted, employers have hired less qualified workers for a given job opening.

 

*Remote work.  The teleworking trend is gaining momentum in the US.  In 2016, the US labor market reached unprecedented growth in the share of people that work remotely full-time, with teleworking reaching 3.1% of full-time employees.  In 2001, the share of full-time employees who teleworked comprised just 1.2%.

 

*Compensation.  Especially in mature economies, companies holding back on raising compensation should do so with caution.  Given today’s labor market, in many instances not increasing pay could lead to higher labor turnover, lower success in recruiting, and less worker satisfaction.

 

*Women and seniors.  Worldwide, employers are likely to increase their labor pools by hiring more women and senior workers.  The share of these two population groups in the workforce is increasing in many countries, partly due to legislation and higher educational attainment.  Alternative work arrangements offer additional opportunities to hire from these groups.

 

*Automation.  Businesses are now more likely to invest in automation to relieve labor shortages and contain labor costs.  When labor was abundant and cheap, it muted the incentive to harvest the benefits of technological progress. In a tight labor market, that story changes.

 

“While recruiting and retaining talent poses a growing challenge for employers, the picture looks brighter for those on the other side of the equation — the employees,” said Gad Levanon, the primary author of the report and the chief economist for North America at The Conference Board.  “As just one example, our latest Conference Board survey of US workers found increased satisfaction with wages and growth opportunities.  With more job opportunities available, employees can settle into jobs that suit them better.”

 

 

Active Listening More Important Than Candidates’ Skills During Interviews, Express Finds

Daily News, April 12, 2018

 

Listening and asking relevant questions are more important when interviewing than skills, experience and work history, according to a survey of business leaders and decision-makers released by Express Employment Professionals.

 

The survey asked business leaders and decision-makers, “What most improves a candidate’s chances during the job interview?” 21% said actively listening and asking relevant questions, while 18% said skills, experience and work history.

 

*Actively listens and asks relevant questions: 21%

*Skills and experience/work history: 18%

*Engaging personality/enthusiasm: 15%

*Cultural fit: 10%

*Excellent verbal communication skills: 9%

*Maintains eye contact/positive body language: 9%

*Other: 18%

 

“When it comes to nailing the interview, it’s not just what you say, it’s how you say it,” Express CEO Bill Stoller said.  “Attitude and interpersonal skills go a long way.  Being mindful of that can dramatically improve your chances.  After all, your interviewer isn’t looking for someone who can ace an exam; he or she wants to know whether you are coworker material and someone who will make the company a better place.”

 

The survey of 2,169 business leaders and decision makers was conducted through the Express Refresh Leadership blog.

 

 

Generation X — not millennials — is changing the nature of work

CNBC, Stephanie Neal and Richard Wellins, April 11, 2018

 

The generation that is quickly occupying the majority of business leadership roles is one that’s grown up playing video games, spends the most time shopping online, and uses social media more habitually than any other generation.

 

If you were thinking it’s millennials, that’s probably because they’ve dominated the media’s focus for the past decade.  But it’s actually Generation X, which covers those born between 1965 and 1981 by our definition.

 

As Pew Research unflatteringly referred to them in a 2014 report, Gen X is “America’s neglected ‘middle child,'” and we don’t hear much about the group.  It seems that all eyes are on the slowly retiring baby boomers or the ascending millennials, now the world’s majority generation.  But our recent study revealed that Gen X is playing a critical — and underappreciated — role in leadership as organizations grapple with digital transformation.

 

In our ‘Global Leadership Forecast 2018’—published by DDI, The Conference Board and EY with support from CNBC — we took a look at more than 25,000 leaders spanning 54 countries and 26 major industry sectors.  We found that Gen X now accounts for 51% of leadership roles globally.  With an average of 20 years of workplace experience, they are primed to quickly assume nearly all top executive roles.

 

Our research revealed that, although they aren’t typically considered digital natives to the extent that millennials are, Gen X leaders are just as likely to be comfortable leveraging technology in the workplace:  Some 54% of Gen X and 56% of millennials reported that they are digitally savvy.

 

That finding is backed up by research by Nielsen, which revealed that Gen X is the most connected generation.  Nielsen found that Gen Xers use social media 40 minutes more each week than millennials.  They were also more likely than millennials to stay on their phones at the dinner table and spend more time on every type of device — phone, computer, or tablet. And, as it turns out, Gen X is bringing this connectivity to work.

 

While Gen X may be equally capable at digital tasks as millennials, they also show a mastery of conventional leadership skills more on par with leaders of the baby boomer generation.  That includes identifying and developing new talent at their organizations and driving the execution of business strategies to bring new ideas to reality.

 

67% of Gen X leaders are also effective in “hyper-collaboration,” and are working relentlessly to break down organizational silos.  Gen X leaders’ strength for working with and through others is enabling them to shape the future of work and generate faster innovation by getting people working together to solve customers’ and their organization’s issues.

 

Despite their growing influence and responsibilities at work, Gen Xers are most overlooked for promotion and have been the slowest to advance.  We found Gen X leaders on average had only 1.2 promotions in the past 5 years, significantly lower than their younger millennial counterparts (1.6 promotions) and more senior baby boomers (1.4 promotions) during the same period of time.

 

While Gen X leaders are often under-recognized for the critical role they play in leadership, they are typically expected to take on heavy workloads.  On average, Gen X leaders have 7 direct reports, compared to only 5 direct reports for millennials.  While their advancement rate is slower and their teams larger, Gen X remain loyal employees. Only 37% contemplate leaving to advance their careers — 5% lower than millennials.

 

Demonstrating loyalty, a willingness to take on a heavy workload, and a powerful combination of digital and traditional leadership skills, Gen X is producing highly capable leaders that are in danger of being overlooked.  Organizations that want to retain and develop their Gen X leaders should:

 

– Provide leaders with more external guidance.  While Gen X leaders are loyal, they are craving insight and knowledge from mentors outside of their organization.  In fact, 67% of leaders said that they would like more external coaching, and 57% wanted external development.  Employers should invest in helping Gen X leaders participate in outside professional organizations, industry conferences and other groups to foster relationships with external peers and mentors who can provide coaching.

 

– Encourage leaders to challenge the status quo.  Many organizations may look to millennials to lead innovative projects, particularly those that are tech-based.  But Gen X leaders are likely to thrive when given the opportunity to experiment with new approaches and challenge existing methods.  Ideally, a cross-generational team — perhaps led by a Gen Xer — may deliver the most innovative solutions.

 

– Leverage technology to support traditional development.  Like those in other generations, Gen X leaders said they still want traditional learning methods, such as formal workshops, training courses and seminars.  However, they also enjoy the personalization and convenience offered by technology-based tools.  Blending traditional learning methods with tech-enabled tools to enhance and solidify learning will help them make the most of their development opportunities.

 

The oldest Gen X workers will likely still be in the workforce for at least 10 years, and the younger members of the generation may still be working for more than 30, meaning that Gen X will be forming the backbone of organizations’ leadership for quite some time.  Those that overlook Gen X in favor of focusing only on the youngest generations entering the workforce will miss out on a deep and valuable source of leadership potential.

 

Now is the time to focus on strengthening the skills of Gen X and further developing their broad range of skills.

 

 

Majority of People Open to Job Change; Benefits, Flexibility Among Top Reasons to Switch, according to Yoh Report

Daily News, April 11, 2018

 

Only 15% of employed Americans said they would not leave their current job for any reason, indicating that a significant majority of people are open to a job change if the right offer came along, according to a survey released today by Yoh.  And when excluding a pay increase, employed Americans cited better benefits and a flexible work environment as the top reasons they would consider other job offers.

 

“As a specialized recruiting company, we see this first-hand every day,” Yoh President Emmett McGrath said.  “Those with top skills have choices, and these findings indicate that benefits and workplace flexibility offerings should be clear and compelling when speaking with a prospective candidate about a position.  It is absolutely critical that recruiters identify early in the process each job seeker’s desires when considering a new role, and pair them with opportunities that fit their specific career and lifestyle needs.”

 

Employed Americans may be more open to a job that’s further from home but offers remote work capabilities, the research found.  42% of the employed Americans surveyed said they would switch jobs for a flexible work environment, while only 24% would switch for a better commute.

 

A few years ago, many companies began offering interesting perks like onsite gyms, daycare services, dry-cleaning, onsite baristas and more to keep employees engaged and content.  However, the survey found 73% of those surveyed would not leave their current job for a job that offers those types of perks, while 50% would leave for a job that offers better traditional benefits like retirement options, healthcare options, and vacation time.

 

Additional findings include:

 

*A larger proportion of employed women than men would consider leaving their current job for a flexible work environment, 44% vs. 39%, and a higher-level position may be more important for employed men as they are more likely to cite leaving for this reason than women at 40% vs. 30%.

 

*The least common reasons employed Americans said they would consider a job change were for a better commute, at 24%, and more perks such as onsite gyms, daycare, or dry cleaning, at 27%.

 

*Employed millennials ages 18 to 34 are more likely to report they would leave a current job for “a field of work I’m more interested in” than those aged 45-plus, at 43% vs. 24%.

 

*Of all age groups, those ages 35 to 44 had the highest proportion of employed Americans, 57%, indicate better benefits as a reason they would leave their current job for a new one.

 

The online survey of 816 employed US adults was conducted within the US by The Harris Poll on behalf of Braithwaite from March 27 to March 29, 2018.

 

 

Index Suggests Robust Job Growth, Friday’s Disappointing Numbers Just Noise:  The Conference Board

Daily News, April 9, 2018

 

Jobs growth in the US increased in March, The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index rose to a reading of 107.72 in March, up from a downwardly revised reading of 107.31 in February.

 

The change in March represents a 5.5% gain in the index compared to a year ago.

 

“The ETI continued its upward trend in March, suggesting that job growth will remain robust in the coming months,” said Gad Levanon, chief economist, North America, at The Conference Board.  “We interpret Friday’s disappointing job numbers as noise in an otherwise fast-growing labor market.”

 

This month’s index reflects historical revisions to initial claims for unemployment insurance, job openings and industrial production.

 

Separately, the US Department of Labor on Friday reported the US gained 103,000 jobs in March and temp jobs rose by 3.8% year over year.

 

 

The new ADP/Moody’s National Employment Report:  Almost 74% of all new job growth in April 2018 came from Small and Medium-size Companies!

May 2, 2018

 

Private sector employment increased by 204,000 jobs from March to April (a 24,000 job decrease from March’s ‘revised’ 228,000*), according to the April ADP National Employment Report®.  *The March total of jobs added was revised down from 241,000 to 228,000.

 

This report is produced by ADP® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics.  The matched sample used to develop the ADP National Employment Report® was derived from ADP payroll data, which represents 411,000 U.S. clients employing nearly 24,000,000 workers in the U.S.

 

By Company Size

 

Small businesses:          62,000

1-19 employees              31,000

20-49 employees            31,000

 

Medium businesses:     88,000

50-499 employees          88,000

 

Large businesses:        54,000

500-999 employees        12,000

1,000+ employees          42,000

 

By Sector

 

  1. Goods-producing:                               44,000

 

  1. Natural resources/mining                    7,000
  2. Construction                                     27,000
  3. Manufacturing                                     10,000

 

  1. Service-providing:     160,000

 

  1. Trade/transportation/utilities              14,000
  2. Information            <-2,000>
  3. Financial activities               7,000
  4. Professional/business services   58,000
  5. Professional/technical services                              34,000
  6. Management of companies/enterprises                     5,000
  7. Administrative/support services                            20,000
  8. Education/health services                          39,000
  9. Health care/social assistance                                  35,000
  10. Education                                                                  4,000
  11. Leisure/hospitality                                     36,000
  12. Other services                                               8,000

 

Franchise Employment

 

Franchise Jobs                        <-10,600>

 

“The labor market continues to maintain a steady pace of strong job growth with little sign of a slowdown,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.  “However, as the labor pool tightens it will become increasingly difficult for employers to find skilled talent.  Job gains in the high-skilled professional and business services industry accounted for more than half of all jobs added this month.  The construction industry, which also relies on skilled labor, continued its six-month trend of steady job gains as well.”

 

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Despite rising trade tensions, more volatile financial markets, and poor weather, businesses are adding a robust more than 200,000 jobs per month.  At this pace, unemployment will soon be in the threes, which is rarified and risky territory, as the economy threatens to overheat.”

 

(The May 2018 ADP National Employment Report will be released at 8:15 a.m. ET on May 30, 2018.)

 

Due to the important contribution that small businesses make to economic growth, employment data that is specific to businesses with 49 or fewer employees is reported each month in the ADP Small Business Report®, a subset of the ADP National Employment Report.

 

April 2018 Small Business Report Highlights

 

Total Small Business Employment:             62,000 (an 15,000 increase)

 

●By Size  
►1-19 employees 31,000
►20-49 employees 31,000
   
●By Sector for 1-49 Employees  
►Goods Producing 10,000
►Service Producing 53,000
   
●By Sector for 1-19 Employees  
►Goods Producing 3,000
►Service Producing 28,000
   
●By Sector for 20-49 Employees  
►Goods Producing 7,000
►Service Producing 25,000

 

Bottom-line:  To my audience of recruiters, always remember this:  Our ‘bread and butter’, especially on the contingency side of the house, has historically been, and continues to be, small and medium-sized client companies.  Along with the large companies, these companies need to be in included in your niche!

 

 

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey – February 2018

April 13, 2018

 

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the number of job openings was little changed at 6,100,000 on the last business day of February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.  Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5,500,000 and 5,200,000, respectively.  Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.2% and the layoffs and discharges rate was little changed at 1.1%.  This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by 4 geographic regions.

 

Job Openings On the last business day of February, there were 6,100,000 job openings, little changed from January.  The job openings rate was 3.9% in February.  The number of job openings edged down for total private and was little changed for government.  Job openings increased in finance and insurance (+69,000) and state and local government education (+31,000).  Job openings decreased in a number of industries with the largest decreases being in accommodation and food services (-91,000), construction (-56,000), and wholesale trade (-38,000).  The number of job openings decreased in the West region.  Hires The number of hires was little changed at 5,500,000 in February.  The hires rate was 3.7%.  The number of hires was little changed for total private and for government.  Hires decreased in educational services (-48,000).  The number of hires was little changed in all 4 regions. Separations Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations.  Total separations is referred to as turnover.  Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee.  Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs.  Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer.  Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm. The number of total separations was little changed at 5,200,000 in February.  The total separations rate was 3.5%.  The number of total separations was little changed for total private and for government.  Total separations increased in federal government (+9,000) but decreased in state and local government education (-17,000).  The number of total separations was little changed in all 4 regions. The number of quits was little changed at 3,200,000 in February.  The quits rate was 2.2%.  The number of quits was little changed for total private and for government.  Quits decreased in other services (-41,000).  The number of quits was little changed in all 4 regions. There were 1,600,000 layoffs and discharges in February, little changed from January.  The layoffs and discharges rate was 1.1% in February.  The number of layoffs and discharges was little changed for total private and unchanged for government.  Layoffs and discharges decreased in state and local government education (-13,000).  The number of layoffs and discharges decreased in the Northeast region. The number of other separations was little changed in February at 334,000.  The number of other separations was little changed for total private and for government.  Other separations increased in federal government (+7,000) but decreased in nondurable goods manufacturing (-6,000).  The number of other separations was little changed in all 4 regions. Net Change in Employment Large numbers of hires and separations occur every month throughout the business cycle. Net employment change results from the relationship between hires and separations.  When the number of hires exceeds the number of separations, employment rises, even if the hires level is steady or declining. Conversely, when the number of hires is less than the number of separations, employment declines, even if the hires level is steady or rising.  Over the 12 months ending in February, hires totaled 65,600,000 and separations totaled 63,300,000, yielding a net employment gain of 2,300,000.  These totals include workers who may have been hired and separated more than once during the year._____________________ The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey results for March 2018 are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, May 8, 2018 at 10:00 a.m. (EDT).

 

As we recruiters know, that 6,100,000 number only represents 20% of the jobs currently available in the marketplace.  The other 80% of job openings are unpublished and are filled through networking or word of mouth or by using a RECRUITER.   So, those 6,100,000 published job openings now become a total of 30,500,000 published AND hidden job orders.

 

In April there were 6,346,000 unemployed workers.  What was the main reason why those workers were unemployed?  Two Words:  Structural Unemployment.  If we can’t figure out how to educate and/or reeducate those 6,346,000 unemployed, then they will keep reappearing each month as a BLS unemployment statistic—as they have.  In the meantime, our recruitment marketplace flourishes!

 

 

Online Job Ads Decreased 69,300 in April

May 2, 2018

 

*Following the March increase, HWOL registered a small loss in April

*Professional occupation category saw small gains while Services/Production saw losses

 

Online advertised vacancies decreased 69,300 to 4,750,500 in April, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series, released today.  The March Supply/Demand rate stands at 1.37 unemployed for each advertised vacancy, with a total of 1,800,000 more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies.  The number of unemployed was approximately 6,600,000 in March.

 

The Professional occupational category saw gains in Computer and math (19.1) and Arts, design, entertainment (-8.0). The Services/Production occupational category saw changes in Sales (-20.8), Construction (-17.5), and Building and grounds (-12.3).

 

NOTE:  Recently, the HWOL Data Series has experienced a declining trend in the number of online job ads that may not reflect broader trends in the U.S. labor market.  Based on changes in how job postings appear online, The Conference Board is reviewing its HWOL methodology to ensure accuracy and alignment with market trends.

 

OCCUPATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

 

*In April 4 of the largest 10 online occupational categories posted increases and 6 declined.

 

Computer and math ads increased 19,100 to 561,500.  The supply/demand rate lies at 0.16, i.e. 6 advertised openings per unemployed job-seeker.

Arts, design, entertainment ads decreased 8,000 to 99,300.  The supply/demand rate lies at 1.36, i.e. over 1 unemployed job-seekers for every advertised available opening.

Sales and related ads decreased 20,800 to 449,700.  The supply/demand rate lies at 1.56, i.e. over 1 unemployed job-seekers for every advertised available opening.

Construction ads decreased 17,500 to 103,800.  The supply/demand rate lies at 4.60, i.e. over 4 unemployed job-seekers for every advertised available opening.

Building and grounds ads decreased 12,300 to 97,000.  The supply/demand rate lies at 3.32, i.e. 3 unemployed job-seekers for every advertised available opening.

Office and admin ads decreased 9,500 to 477,900.  The supply/demand rate lies at 1.29, i.e. 1 unemployed job-seeker for every advertised available opening.

 

(The May 2018 Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series will be released at 10:00 AM ET on Wednesday, May 30, 2018)

 

 

U-6 Update

 

In April 2018 the regular unemployment rate dropped to 3.9% and the broader U-6 measure dropped .2% to 7.8%.

 

The above 7.8% is referred to as the U-6 unemployment rate (found in the monthly BLS Employment Situation Summary, Table A-15; Table A-12 in 2008 and before).  It counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts “marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons.”  Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week.  And the “marginally attached workers” include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work.  The age considered for this calculation is 16 years and over.

 

Here is a look at the April U-6 numbers for the past 15 years:

 

April 2017                   8.6%

April 2016                   9.7%

April 2015                   10.8%

April 2014                   12.3%

April 2013                   13.9%

April 2012                   14.5%

April 2011                   15.9%

April 2010                   17.0%

April 2009                   15.8%

April 2008                   9.2%

April 2007                   8.2%

April 2006                   8.1%

April 2005                   9.0%

April 2004                   9.6%

April 2003                   10.1%

 

 

The April 2018 BLS Analysis

 

According to the April 2018 Employment Situation Summary, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a division of the US Department of Labor, the total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 164,000 in April – a increase of 29,000 from last month’s ‘revised’ 135,000—up from the originally reported, 103,000.

 

The unemployment rate is also published by the BLS.  That rate is found by dividing the number of unemployed by the total civilian labor force.  On May 4th, 2018, the BLS published the most recent unemployment rate for April 2018 of 3.9% (actually it is 3.929%, down by .142% from 4.071% in March 2018).  This is the lowest unemployment rate since 2000—18 years ago!

 

The unemployment rate was determined by dividing the unemployed of 6,346,000 (–down from the month before by 239,000—since April 2017 this number has decreased by 675,000) by the total civilian labor force of 161,527,000 (down by 236,000 from March 2018).  Since April 2017, our total civilian labor force has increased by 1,346,000 workers.

 

(The continuing ‘Strange BLS Math’ saga—after a detour in December 2016 when the BLS {for the first time in years} DECREASED the total Civilian Noninstitutional Population—this month the BLS again increased this total to 257,272,000.  This is an increase of 175,000 from last month’s increase of 163,000.  In one year’s time, this population has increased by 2,684,000. The Civilian Noninstitutional Population has increased each month—except in December 2016—by…)

 

Up from March 2018 by 175,000
Up from February 2018 by 163,000
Up from January 2018 by 154,000
Up from December 2017 by 671,000
Up from November 2017 by 160,000
Up from October 2017 by 183,000
Up from September 2017 by 204,000
Up from August 2017 by 205,000
Up from July 2017 by 206,000
Up from June 2017 by 194,000
Up from May 2017 by 173,000
Up from April 2017 by 179,000
Up from March 2017 by 174,000
Up from February 2017 by 168,000
Up from January 2017 by 164,000
Down from December 2016 by 660,000
Up from November 2016 by 202,000
Up from October 2016 by 219,000
Up from September 2016 by 230,000
Up from August 2016 by 237,000
Up from July 2016 by 234,000
Up from June 2016 by 223,000
Up from May 2016 by 223,000
Up from April 2016 by 205,000
Up from March 2016 by 201,000
Up from February 2016 by 191,000
Up from January 2016 by 180,000
Up from December 2015 by 461,000
Up from November 2015 by 189,000
Up from October 2015 by 206,000
Up from September 2015 by 216,000
Up from August 2015 by 229,000
Up from July 2015 by 220,000
Up from June 2015 by 213,000
Up from May 2015 by 208,000
Up from April 2015 by 189,000
Up from March 2015 by 186,000
Up from February 2015 by 191,000
Up from January 2015 by 176,000
Up from December 2014 by 696,000
Up from November 2014 by 143,000
Up from October 2014 by 187,000
Up from September 2014 by 211,000
Up from August 2014 by 217,000
Up from July 2014 by 206,000
Up from June 2014 by 209,000
Up from May 2014 by 192,000
Up from April 2014 by 183,000
Up from March 2014 by 181,000
Up from February 2014 by 173,000
Up from January 2014 by 170,000
Up from December 2013 by 170,000
Up from November 2013 by 178,000
Up from October 2013 by 186,000
Up from September 2013 by 213,000
Up from August 2013 by 209,000
Up from July 2013 by 203,000
Up from June 2013 by 204,000
Up from May 2013 by 189,000
Up from April 2013 by 188,000
Up from March 2013 by 180,000
Up from February 2013 by 167,000
Up from January 2013 by 165,000
Up from December 2012 by 313,000
Up from November 2012 by 176,000
Up from October 2012 by 191,000
Up from September 2012 by 211,000
Up from August 2012 by 206,000
Up from July 2012 by 212,000
Up from June 2012 by 199,000
Up from May 2012 by 189,000
Up from April 2012 by 182,000
Up from March 2012 by 180,000
Up from February 2012 by 169,000
Up from January 2012 by 335,000
Up from December 2011 by 2,020,000

 

This month the BLS has decreased the Civilian Labor Force to 161,527,000 (down from March by 236,000).

 

Subtract the second number (‘civilian labor force’) from the first number (‘civilian noninstitutional population’) and you get 95,745,000 ‘Not in Labor Force’—up by 411,000 from last month’s 95,334,000.  In one year’s time, this NILF population has increased by 1,338,000.  The government tells us that most of these NILFs got discouraged and just gave up looking for a job.  My monthly recurring question is: “If that is the case, how do they survive when they don’t earn any money because they don’t have a job?  Are they ALL relying on the government to support them??”

 

This month, our Employment Participation Rate—the population 16 years and older working or seeking work— dropped .1% to 62.8%.  This is .4% above the historically low rate of 62.4% recorded in September 2015—and, before that, the rate recorded in October 1977—9 months into Jimmy Carter’s presidency—almost 40 years ago!

 

Final take on these numbers:  Fewer people looking for work will always bring down the unemployment rate.

 

Anyway, back to the point I am trying to make.  On the surface, these new unemployment rates are scary, but let’s look a little deeper and consider some other numbers.

 

The unemployment rate includes all types of workers—construction workers, government workers, etc.  We recruiters, on the other hand, mainly place management, professional and related types of workers.  That unemployment rate in April was 1.8% (this rate was .2% lower than last month’s 2.0%).  Or, you can look at it another way.  We usually place people who have college degrees.  That unemployment rate in April was 2.1% (this rate was .1% lower as last month’s 2.2%).

 

Now stay with me a little longer.  This gets better.  It’s important to understand (and none of the pundits mention this) that the unemployment rate, for many reasons, will never be 0%, no matter how good the economy is.  Without boring you any more than I have already, let me add here that Milton Friedman (the renowned Nobel Prize-winning economist), is famous for the theory of the “natural rate of unemployment” (or the term he preferred, NAIRU, which is the acronym for Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment).  Basically, this theory states that full employment presupposes an ‘unavoidable and acceptable’ unemployment rate of somewhere between 4-6% with it.  Economists often settle on 5%, although the “New Normal Unemployment Rate” has been suggested to fall at 6.7%.

 

Nevertheless (if you will allow me to apply a ‘macro’ concept to a ‘micro’ issue), if this rate is applied to our main category of Management, Professional and Related types of potential recruits, and/or our other main category of College-Degreed potential recruits, we are well below the 4-6% threshold for full employment…we find no unemployment!  None!  Zilch!  A Big Goose Egg!

 

 

THE IMPORTANCE OF GDP

 

“The economic goal of any nation, as of any individual, is to get the greatest results with the least effort.  The whole economic progress of mankind has consisted in getting more production with the same labor…Translated into national terms, this first principle means that our real objective is to maximize production.  In doing this, full employment—that is, the absence of involuntary idleness—becomes a necessary by-product.  But production is the end, employment merely the means.  We cannot continuously have the fullest production without full employment.  But we can very easily have full employment without full production.”

 

Economics in One Lesson, by Henry Hazlitt, Chapter X, “The Fetish of Full Employment”

On April 27th, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced the real gross domestic product (GDP) — the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes — increased at an annual rate of 2.3% in the first quarter of 2018, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the fourth quarter of 2017, real GDP increased 2.9%.

 

The Bureau emphasized that the first-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency.  The “second” estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on May 30, 2018.

 

The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected positive contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, private inventory investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

 

The deceleration in real GDP growth in the first quarter reflected decelerations in PCE, residential fixed investment, exports, and state and local government spending.  These movements were partly offset by an upturn in private inventory investment.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decelerated.

Three Update Releases to GDP BEA releases 3 vintages of the current quarterly estimate for GDP:  “Advance” estimates are released near the end of the first month following the end of the quarter and are based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency; “second” and “third” estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively, and are based on more detailed and more comprehensive data as they become available. Annual and comprehensive updates are typically released in late July.  Annual updates generally cover at least the 3 most recent calendar years (and their associated quarters) and incorporate newly available major annual source data as well as some changes in methods and definitions to improve the accounts.  Comprehensive (or benchmark) updates are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as major conceptual improvements.

 

 (First Quarter 2018 “Second” Estimate will be released on May 30, 2018)

 

 

IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR UNEMPLOYMENT EVER TO BE ZERO

 

‘Unemployment’ is an emotional ‘trigger’ word…a ‘third rail’, if you will.  It conjures up negative thoughts.  But it is important to realize that, while we want everyone who wants a job to have the opportunity to work, unemployment can never be zero and, in fact, can be disruptive to an economy if it gets too close to zero.  Very low unemployment can actually hurt the economy by creating an upward pressure on wages which invariably leads to higher production costs and prices.  This can lead to inflation.  The lowest the unemployment rate has been in the US was 2.5%.  That was in May and June 1953 when the economy overheated due to the Korean War.  When this bubble burst, it kicked off the Recession of 1953.  A healthy economy will always include some percentage of unemployment.

 

There are five main sources of unemployment:

 

  1. Cyclical (or demand-deficient) unemployment – This type of unemployment fluctuates with the business cycle. It rises during a recession and falls during the subsequent recovery.  Workers who are most affected by this type of unemployment are laid off during a recession when production volumes fall, and companies use lay-offs as the easiest way to reduce costs.  These workers are usually rehired, some months later, when the economy improves.

 

  1. Frictional unemployment – This comes from the normal turnover in the labor force. This is where new workers are entering the workforce and older workers are retiring and leaving vacancies to be filled by the new workers or those re-entering the workforce.  This category includes workers who are between jobs.

 

  1. Structural unemployment – This happens when the skills possessed by the unemployed worker don’t match the requirements of the opening—whether those be in characteristics and skills or in location. This can come from new technology or foreign competition (e.g., foreign outsourcing).  This type of unemployment usually lasts longer than frictional unemployment because retraining, and sometimes relocation, is involved.  Occasionally jobs in this category can just disappear overseas.

 

  1. Seasonal unemployment – This happens when the workforce is affected by the climate or time of year. Construction workers and agricultural workers aren’t needed as much during the winter season because of the inclement weather.  On the other hand, retail workers experience an increase in hiring shortly before, and during, the holiday season, but can be laid off shortly thereafter.

 

  1. Surplus unemployment – This is caused by minimum wage laws and unions. When wages are set at a higher level, unemployment can often result.  Why?  To keep within the same payroll budget, the company must let go of some workers to pay the remaining workers a higher salary.

 

Other factors influencing the unemployment rate:

 

  1. Length of unemployment – Some studies indicate that an important factor influencing a worker’s decision to accept a new job is directly related to the length of the unemployment benefit they are receiving. Currently, in 2018, workers in most states are eligible for up to 26 weeks of benefits from the regular state-funded unemployment compensation program.  Studies suggest that additional weeks of benefits reduce the incentive of the unemployed to seek and accept less desirable jobs.

 

  1. Changes in GDP – Since hiring workers takes time, the improvement in the unemployment rate usually lags the improvement in the GDP.

 

WHERE RECRUITERS PLACE

 

Now back to the issue at hand, namely the recruiting, and placing, of professionals and those with college degrees.

 

If you look at the past few years of unemployment in the April “management, professional and related” types of worker category, you will find the following rates:

 

April 2017                   2.0%

April 2016                   2.1%

April 2015                   2.4%

April 2014                   2.9%

April 2013                   3.5%

April 2012                   3.7%

April 2011                   4.0%

April 2010                   4.5%

April 2009                   4.0%

April 2008                   2.0%

April 2007                   1.8%

April 2006                   1.9%

April 2005                   2.2%

April 2004                   2.6%

April 2003                   2.9%

April 2002                   2.7%

April 2001                   2.1%

April 2000                   1.7%

 

Here are the rates, during those same time periods, for “college-degreed” workers:

 

April 2017                   2.4%

April 2016                   2.4%

April 2015                   2.7%

April 2014                   3.3%

April 2013                   3.9%

April 2012                   4.0%

April 2011                   4.5%

April 2010                   4.8%

April 2009                   4.4%

April 2008                   2.1%

April 2007                   1.8%

April 2006                   2.2%

April 2005                   2.4%

April 2004                   2.9%

April 2003                   3.1%

April 2002                   3.0%

April 2001                   2.2%

April 2000                   1.6%

 

The April 2018 rates for these two categories, 1.8% and 2.1%, respectively, are very low again this month and are at, or close to, the halcyon numbers we attained in the 2006-2008 & 2000-2001-time frames.  But regardless, these unemployment numbers usually include a good number of job hoppers, job shoppers and rejects.  We, on the other hand, are engaged by our client companies to find those candidates who are happy, well-appreciated, making good money and currently working and we entice them to move for even better opportunities—especially where new technologies are expanding.  This will never change.  And that is why, no matter the overall unemployment rate, we still need to MARKET to find the best possible job orders to work and we still need to RECRUIT to find the best possible candidates for those Job Orders.

 

 

 

Below are the numbers for the over 25-year old’s:

 

 

Less than H.S. diploma – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
7.7% 7.4% 8.2% 7.9% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 9.7% 9.8% 10.4% 10.6% 10.9%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
12.0% 12.6% 13.3% 14.8% 15.5% 15.5% 15.4% 15.6% 15.0% 15.5% 15.0% 15.3%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
15.2% 15.6% 14.5% 14.7% 15.0% 14.1% 13.8% 14.0% 15.4% 15.3% 15.7% 15.3%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
14.2% 13.9% 13.7% 14.6% 14.7% 14.3% 15.0% 14.3% 14.0% 13.8% 13.2% 13.8%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
13.1% 12.9% 12.6% 12.5% 13.0% 12.6% 12.7% 12.0% 11.3% 12.2% 12.2% 11.7%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
12.0% 11.2% 11.1% 11.6% 11.1% 10.7% 11.0% 11.3% 10.3% 10.9% 10.8% 9.8%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
9.6% 9.8% 9.6% 8.9% 9.1% 9.1% 9.6% 9.1% 8.4% 7.9% 8.5% 8.8%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
8.5% 8.4% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.2% 8.3% 7.7% 7.7% 7.3% 6.8% 6.7%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
7.4% 7.3% 7.4% 7.5% 7.1% 7.5% 6.3% 7.2% 8.5% 7.3% 7.9% 7.9%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
7.3% 7.9% 6.8% 6.5% 6.1% 6.4% 6.9% 6.0% 6.5% 5.7% 5.2% 6.3%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
5.4% 5.7% 5.5% 5.9%                

 

 

H.S. Grad; no college – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
4.6% 4.7% 5.1% 5.0% 5.2% 5.2% 5.3% 5.8% 6.3% 6.5% 6.9% 7.7%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
8.1% 8.3% 9.0% 9.3% 10.0% 9.8% 9.4% 9.7% 10.8% 11.2% 10.4% 10.5%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.5% 10.8% 10.6% 10.9% 10.8% 10.1% 10.3% 10.0% 10.1% 10.0% 9.8%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.4% 9.5% 9.5% 9.7% 9.5% 10.0% 9.3% 9.6% 9.7% 9.6% 8.8% 8.7%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.4% 8.3% 8.0% 7.9% 8.1% 8.4% 8.7% 8.8% 8.7% 8.4% 8.1% 8.0%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.1% 7.9% 7.6% 7.4% 7.4% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.3% 7.3% 7.1%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.5% 6.4% 6.3% 6.3% 6.5% 5.8% 6.1% 6.2% 5.3% 5.7% 5.6% 5.3%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.4% 5.8% 5.4% 5.5% 5.5% 5.3% 5.3% 5.4% 5.6%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
5.3% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 5.1% 5.2% 5.5% 4.9% 5.1%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
5.2% 5.0% 4.9% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5% 5.1% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3%                

 

 

Some College; or AA/AS – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
3.7% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.6% 5.0% 5.1% 5.3% 5.5% 5.6%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
6.2% 7.0% 7.2% 7.4% 7.7% 8.0% 7.9% 8.2% 8.5% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
8.5% 8.0% 8.2% 8.3% 8.3% 8.2% 8.3% 8.7% 9.1% 8.5% 8.7% 8.1%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
8.0% 7.8% 7.4% 7.5% 8.0% 8.4% 8.3% 8.2% 8.4% 8.3% 7.6% 7.7%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
7.2% 7.3% 7.5% 7.6% 7.9% 7.5% 7.1% 6.6% 6.5% 6.9% 6.6% 6.9%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
7.0% 6.7% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5% 6.4% 6.0% 6.1% 6.0% 6.3% 6.4% 6.1%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.0% 6.2% 6.1% 5.7% 5.5% 5.0% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.2% 5.1% 4.8% 4.7% 4.4% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.4% 4.1%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 3.9% 3.8%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
3.8% 4.0% 3.7% 3.7% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.8% 3.6% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5%                

 

 

BS/BS + – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 2.6% 3.1% 3.2% 3.7%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
3.9% 4.1% 4.3% 4.4% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.9% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.8% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.4% 4.7% 5.1% 4.8%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.2% 4.3% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.1%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% 3.4% 3.3%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 3.1% 3.2% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 2.8%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.8% 2.7% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.3% 2.5%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
2.1% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1%                

 

 

Management, Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 3.3% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 4.0% 4.6% 5.0% 5.5% 5.4% 5.2% 4.7% 4.6% 4.6%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 4.5% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 4.4% 4.5% 4.7% 4.6%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.7% 4.4% 4.3% 4.0% 4.4% 4.7% 5.0% 4.9% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 4.2%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 3.7% 4.0% 4.4% 4.8% 4.5% 3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.9%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 4.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.5% 3.4% 3.1% 2.9%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 2.9% 3.1% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 2.7%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.9% 2.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.9% 3.1% 2.9% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% 2.8% 3.0% 3.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 2.3% 2.7% 2.8% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8%                

 

 

Or employed…(,000)

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
52,165 52,498 52,681 52,819 52,544 52,735 52,655 52,626 53,104 53,485 53,274 52,548

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
52,358 52,196 52,345 52,597 52,256 51,776 51,810 51,724 52,186 52,981 52,263 52,131

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
52,159 52,324 52,163 52,355 51,839 51,414 50,974 50,879 51,757 51,818 52,263 51,704

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
51,866 52,557 53,243 53,216 52,778 52,120 51,662 51,997 52,665 52,864 52,787 52,808

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
53,152 53,208 53,771 54,055 54,156 53,846 53,165 53,696 54,655 55,223 54,951 54,635

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
54,214 54,563 54,721 54,767 54,740 54,323 54,064 54,515 55,013 55,155 55,583 54,880

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
55,096 55,501 56,036 55,896 56,202 55,714 55,381 55,646 56,365 56,759 57,110 56,888

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
57,367 57,596 57,805 57,953 58,155 57,710 57,392 57,288 58,105 58,456 58,667 59,030

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
59,014 59,583 60,080 59,690 59,613 59,181 58,434 58,526 59,599 59,766 59,707 60,069

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
59,921 61,064 61,156 61,317 61,174 60,705 59,923 59,559 60,990 61,062 61,818 62,121

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
62,123 62,908 63,067 62,561                

 

 

And unemployed…(,000)

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
1,164 1,159 1,121 1,088 1,407 1,478 1,585 1,779 1,539 1,647 1,786 1,802

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
2,238 2,137 2,292 2,164 2,373 2,720 3,034 2,925 2,859 2,593 2,530 2,509

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
2,762 2,637 2,600 2,464 2,450 2,644 2,687 2,762 2,381 2,417 2,525 2,468

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
2,557 2,435 2,381 2,196 2,419 2,598 2,742 2,671 2,450 2,410 2,336 2,303

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
2,410 2,336 2,330 2,062 2,275 2,472 2,666 2,556 2,245 2,170 2,077 2,221

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
2,211 2,164 2,020 1,980 1,990 2,358 2,286 2,130 1,978 1,930 1,749 1,637

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
1,784 1,845 1,890 1,642 1,795 2,001 2,011 1,930 1,617 1,582 1,656 1,568

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
1,741 1,601 1,398 1,435 1,460 1,714 1,807 1,686 1,414 1,312 1,276 1,208

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
1,404 1,456 1,477 1,251 1,305 1,712 1,782 1,869 1,652 1,506 1,382 1,361

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
1,425 1,313 1,265 1,254 1,208 1,440 1,656 1,731 1,463 1,285 1,266 1,290

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
1,374 1,301 1,310 1,134                

 

 

For a total Management, Professional & Related workforce of…(,000)

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
53,329 53,657 53,802 53,907 53,951 54,213 54,240 54,405 54,643 55,132 55,060 54,350

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
54,596 54,333 54,637 54,761 54,629 54,496 54,844 54,649 55,045 55,574 54,793 54,640

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
54,921 54,961 54,763 54,819 54,289 54,058 53,661 53,641 54,138 54,235 54,788 54,172

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
54,423 54,992 55,624 55,412 55,197 54,718 54,404 54,668 55,115 55,274 55,123 55,111

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
55,562 55,544 56,101 56,117 56,431 56,318 55,831 56,252 56,900 57,393 57,028 56,856

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
56,425 56,727 56,741 56,747 56,730 56,681 56,350 56,645 56,991 57,085 57,332 56,517

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
56,880 57,346 57,926 57,538 57,997 57,715 57,392 57,576 57,982 58,341 58,766 58,456

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
59,108 59,197 59,203 59,388 59,615 59,424 59,199 58,974 59,519 59,768 59,943 60,238

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
60,418 61,039 61,557 60,941 60,918 60,893 60,216 60,395 61,251 61,272 61,089 61,430

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
61,346 62,377 62,421 62,571 62,382 62,145 61,579 61,290 62,453 62,347 63,084 63,411

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
63,497 64,209 64,377 63,695                

 

 

Management, Business and Financial Operations – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 3.0% 3.6% 3.9%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.4% 5.2%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.2% 5.1% 5.4% 5.1% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.9% 4.3% 5.0% 5.5% 5.7%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
5.3% 4.9% 4.8% 4.6% 4.9% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 4.4%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.5% 4.4% 4.4% 4.0% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 4.1%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
4.0% 3.9% 3.5% 3.5% 3.8% 3.5% 3.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.7% 3.2% 3.1%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.4% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.9% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 1.9%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.3% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.8% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.4% 2.5% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8%                

 

 

Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.9% 3.2% 3.6% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.9% 4.6% 4.3% 4.1% 4.3% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3% 4.4% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.3% 4.1% 3.9% 3.5% 4.0% 4.9% 5.3% 5.1% 4.4% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.8% 5.5% 5.2% 4.3% 3.9% 3.5% 3.8%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 4.6% 4.7% 4.0% 3.6% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 2.6% 2.9% 4.0% 4.1% 3.9% 3.1% 2.7% 2.9% 2.8%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.9% 2.7% 2.2% 2.3% 2.1% 3.2% 3.6% 3.3% 2.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.4% 2.2% 2.3% 1.8% 2.0% 3.1% 3.4% 3.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.2% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 2.6% 3.3% 3.1% 2.3% 2.2% 2.0% 2.1%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
2.3% 2.0% 2.1% 1.8%                

 

 

Sales & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
5.2% 5.2% 4.8% 4.3% 5.1% 5.6% 6.2% 6.3% 5.7% 6.1% 6.5% 7.0%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
7.7% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 8.9% 9.1% 8.3% 8.7% 8.9% 9.5% 9.1% 8.9%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.2% 9.7% 9.2% 9.6% 9.4% 10.1% 9.0% 9.4% 9.1% 8.8% 8.3%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.3% 9.0% 8.5% 8.5% 9.4% 9.7% 9.4% 8.6% 9.4% 8.2% 7.8% 7.7%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.2% 7.9% 8.1% 7.6% 7.9% 8.4% 8.3% 8.6% 7.9% 7.0% 7.3% 7.0%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.5% 8.2% 7.7% 6.9% 7.1% 6.7% 6.9% 7.2% 7.5% 7.3% 7.0% 6.3%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
7.1% 7.7% 6.8% 5.8% 6.8% 6.1% 6.2% 5.6% 5.4% 5.2% 5.3% 5.0%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.8% 5.2% 5.8% 5.5% 5.8% 5.6% 5.8% 5.4% 5.6% 5.3% 5.1% 4.3%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
5.0% 4.4% 4.4% 5.2% 5.1% 4.9% 4.9% 4.8% 5.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.6%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
5.2% 4.3% 3.9% 4.2% 4.5% 4.8% 4.2% 4.2% 3.7% 4.0% 4.1% 3.8%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.1%