BLS Analysis for April 2013

Bob Marshall’s BLS Analysis; 5/3/13

 

April BLS Preface

TBMG News

I just returned from training visits to St. Petersburg, FL (Top Echelon National Convention) and Newport, RI (NEAPS).  Both locations were beautiful.  Now I am back in Atlanta for a week and then fly to Indianapolis for the ISSA Spring Conference on May 16^th, 2013.  Here is my training schedule, so far:

May 16, 2013

Indiana Search and Staffing Association (ISSA), Indianapolis, IN; “Your Desk as a Manufacturing Plant”; “Establishing Elegant Rapport Through Elegant Communication” and “How to Teach a Recruiter to Bill $1,010,349.50 in One Year”;

September, 2013

Portland, OR and San Diego, CA, TBD.

For those of you who live and work in Oregon or Southern California and are interested in in-office training, give me a call and I will make you a special offer, since I will already be in your general vicinity.  Thanks!

All the details of my coaching plans, and products, are available to you on my website:  www.TheMarshallPlan.org or you can reach me at 770-898-5550 or email me at:   bob@themarshallplan.org.

Preface

Many of you continue to correspond with me about these monthly BLS analyses and have asked if it is OK to use them in your presentations.  The answer is, of course, yes!  That is why I spend the time to write down this information.  I would encourage any of you who have that desire to weave any of the information I have printed below into your presentations.  I write these analyses for the benefit of our recruitment industry in general and for the members of my distribution list in particular.  So use this info as you deem appropriate.

I also write these monthly BLS analyses to not only counterbalance the negative/incorrect press reporting of our general economic state but, more than that, to remind all of my recruitment readers that, at the level we work, there is no unemployment and so we must recruit to find the candidates our client companies so desperately need!

So to my recruiter colleagues, get out there and do what your name implies…RECRUIT.  When your client companies have unique and difficult positions to fill, they need you.  When they are being picky, they need you.  When they are longing for more production from fewer employees, they need you.  Go fill those needs.  These should be the halcyon days in the recruitment arena!

Finally, always remember that we are not in an HR business, but in a ‘circumventing the time factor in the hiring sequence’ business—and adding value to our client companies.

 

Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2013 (advance estimate)

April 26, 2013

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 2.5% in the first quarter of 2013 (that is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 0.4%.

The Bureau emphasized that the first-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency.  The “second” estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on May 30, 2013.

The increase in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, residential investment, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from federal government spending and state and local government spending.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The Terrifying Reality of Long-Term Unemployment

The Atlantic, Matthew O’Brien, April 13, 2013

It’s an awful catch-22: employers won’t hire you if you’ve been out of work for more than six months

Close your eyes and picture the scariest thing you can think of. Maybe it’s a giant spider or a giant Stay Puft marshmallow man or something that’s not even giant at all. Well, whatever it is, I guarantee it’s not nearly as scary as the real scariest thing in the world. That’s long-term unemployment.

There are two labor markets nowadays. There’s the market for people who have been out of work for less than six months, and the market for people who have been out of work longer. The former is working pretty normally, and the latter is horribly dysfunctional. That was the conclusion of recent research I highlighted a few months ago by Rand Ghayad, a visiting scholar at the Boston Fed and a PhD candidate in economics at Northeastern University, and William Dickens, a professor of economics at Northeastern University, that looked at Beveridge curves for different ages, industries, and education levels to see who the recovery is leaving behind.

Okay, so what is a Beveridge curve? Well, it just shows the relationship between job openings and unemployment. There should be a pretty stable relationship between the two, assuming the labor market isn’t broken. The more openings there are, the less unemployment there should be. If that isn’t true, if the Beveridge curve “shifts up” as more openings don’t translate into less unemployment, then it might be a sign of “structural” unemployment. That is, the unemployed just might not have the right skills. Now, what Ghayad and Dickens found is that the Beveridge curves look normal across all ages, industries, and education levels, as long as you haven’t been out of work for more than six months. But the curves shift up for everybody if you’ve been unemployed longer than six months. In other words, it doesn’t matter whether you’re young or old, a blue-collar or white-collar worker, or a high school or college grad; all that matters is how long you’ve been out of work.

But just how bad is it for the long-term unemployed? Ghayad ran a follow-up field experiment to find out. In a new working paper, he sent out 4800 fictitious resumes to 600 job openings, with 3600 of them for fake unemployed people. Among those 3600, he varied how long they’d been out of work, how often they’d switched jobs, and whether they had any industry experience. Everything else was kept constant. The mocked-up resumes were all male, all had randomly-selected (and racially ambiguous) names, and all had similar education backgrounds. The question was which of them would get callbacks.

It turns out long-term unemployment is much scarier than you could possibly imagine.

The results are equal parts unsurprising and terrifying. Employers prefer applicants who haven’t been out of work for very long, applicants who have industry experience, and applicants who haven’t moved between jobs that much. But how long you’ve been out of work trumps those other factors. As you can see in the chart below from Ghayad’s paper, people with relevant experience (red) who had been out of work for six months or longer got called back less than people without relevant experience (blue) who’d been out of work shorter.

Look at that again. As long as you’ve been out of work for less than six months, you can get called back even if you don’t have experience. But after you’ve been out of work for six months, it doesn’t matter what experience you have. Quite literally. There’s only a 2.12 percentage point difference in callback rates for the long-term unemployed with or without industry experience. That’s compared to a 7.13 and 8.95 percentage point difference for the short-and-medium-term unemployed. This is what screening out the long-term unemployed looks like. In other words, the first thing employers look at is how long you’ve been out of work, and that’s the only thing they look at if it’s been six months or longer.

This penalty for long-term unemployment is unlike any other. As you can see in the chart below, job churn is another red flag for employers, but not nearly to the same extent. Applicants who’d gone through five to six jobs but had relevant experience were still more likely to get called back than those who’d gone through three to four jobs but didn’t. And they had about as good a chance as those who’d only held one or two jobs but weren’t experienced. In other words, there is no job-switching cliff like there is an unemployment cliff.

Long-term unemployment is a terrifying trap. Once you’ve been out of work for six months, there’s little you can do to find work. Employers put you at the back of the jobs line, regardless of how strong the rest of your resume is. After all, they usually don’t even look at it.

Let’s be clear. Ghayad’s field study shows employers discriminate against the long-term unemployed. All of the fake resumes he sent out were basically identical. But firms ignored the ones from people who’d been out of work for six months or longer — even when they had better credentials. Employers look at how long you’ve been unemployed as a better proxy for skills than anything else on your resume. In other words, more jobs-training probably won’t help the long-term unemployed all that much. Even a stronger economy will only help them years in the future, rather than many years in the future.

It’s time for the government to start hiring the long-term unemployed. Or, at the least, start giving employers tax incentives to hire the long-term unemployed. The worst possible outcome for all of us is if the long-term unemployed become unemployable. That would permanently reduce our productive capacity.

We can do better, and we need to start doing so now. We can’t afford long-term thinking in either the short or the long-term.

Report:  Competition for talent is top hiring challenge

Daily News, April 17, 2013

Competition for experienced talent is a top hiring challenge for U.S. companies, according to the 2013 HireRight Employment Screening Benchmarking Report released today.

69% of survey respondents expect to increase hiring in 2013, in line with 2012 results of 71%.  However, 30% expect their workforce size to increase only 1% to 4%.  Half of respondents expect to fill some of these positions with contingent workers, which is also in line with 2012 findings.

The top 5 business challenges were:

1. Finding, retaining, developing quality talent: 52%
2. Regulatory changes and compliance: 33%
3. Revenue growth: 32%
4. Creating/sustaining competitive advantages: 26%
5. Cost containment: 23%

Competition for quality talent has companies turning to metrics to evaluate the success of their hiring programs and to improve the hiring experience for their applicants. 71% of companies surveyed took definitive steps to improve their applicants’ hiring experience in 2012 and another 9% plan to do so in 2013.

Irvine, Calif.-based HireRight provides pre-employment background checks.

Millennial and Mature Workers’ Attitudes Align

Daily News, The Staffing Stream, April 18, 2013, by Chris Mader 

Understanding generational differences in the workplace has become an important issue for companies to tackle as four generations are now working alongside each other for the first time in history. As companies once again focus on growth and expansion, it is more important than ever for organizations to engage, retain and motivate a diverse workforce to drive productivity and efficiency.

In order to build a solid employee engagement plan, HR and contingent staffing leaders must truly understand the differences, and, more importantly, the similarities of each generation when it comes to their motivations, perceptions and career goals.

In Randstad’s most recent Employment Engagement Study, we looked at how employees of different generations are most effectively engaged at work in a post-recession environment. We found several surprises, including unexpected similarities between the two most seemingly different generations:  matures (born before 1960) and millennials (1982-1994).

While there are some obvious differences between these two generations, our study found that they have the most in common when it comes to their views on the workplace, careers and current jobs. For example, 89% of mature workers and 75% of millennials say they enjoy going to work every day, and a majority of both groups feels inspired to do their best at work (95% of mature respondents and 80% of millennials).  However, this on-the-job satisfaction can be attributed to different factors. For millennials who are starting out in their careers, they are often focused on achieving career goals and moving up in their professions, while matures are likely closer to achieving their goals and appreciate opportunities to engage in the type of work they enjoy.

According to our study, millennials and matures also seem to have higher employee morale compared to other generations, with 69% of millennials and 64% of mature workers saying they experience positive energy at work – compared to a 53% average among other generational groups.

Millennials and matures also have similar thoughts on important skills essential to growing their careers, with flexibility, leadership and technology skills topping both of their lists.

We also asked employees how they viewed the current hiring landscape and economy. Again, millennials and matures feel similarly optimistic about the job market, expecting it to pick up in 2013 (67% and 55%, respectively). However, the millennial generation appears to have taken a greater hit from the recession, with 59% of respondents believing the economy has negatively altered their career plans, compared to only 35% of mature workers sharing this sentiment.

As the job market continues to heat up and more jobs become available, employers will continue to be faced with larger and more diverse talent pools. Understanding the perceptions, needs and expectations of workers across all generations can help a company in attracting and retaining the best talent, which will in turn produce better bottom line results

The new ADP/Moody’s National Employment Report

Released, May 1, 2013

Private sector employment increased by 119,000 jobs from March to April, according to the April ADP National Employment Report®, which is produced by ADP®, a leading provider of human capital management solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics.  The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.  The March report, which reported job gains of 158,000, was revised downward to 131,000 jobs.

By Company Size

Small businesses: 50,000

1-19 employees 34,000

20-49 employees 17,000

Medium businesses: 26,000

50-499 employees 26,000

Large businesses: 43,000

500-999 employees 8,000

1,000+ employees 35,000

By Sector

Goods producing 6,000

Service providing 113,000

Industry Snapshot

Construction 15,000

Manufacturing

Trade/transportation/utilities 29,000

Financial activities 7,000

Professional/business services 20,000

Goods-producing employment rose by 6,000 jobs in April, its slowest pace of growth in seven months.  Though it accounted for most of the weakness in goods production job growth in March, construction growth picked up in April and the industry added 15,000 jobs over the month.  Meanwhile manufacturers shed 10,000 jobs in April—the first decline in three months and the largest since September 2012.

Service-providing jobs increased by 113,000, the weakest pace of growth in seven months.  Among the service industries reported in the report, trade/transportation/utilities had the largest gain with 29,000 jobs added over the month.  Professional/business services followed, adding 20,000 jobs, and financial activities added 7,000 jobs.

“During the month of April 2013, U.S. private sector employment increased by 119,000 jobs, representing the slowest pace of expansion since September 2012,” said Carlos A. Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP.  “The services sector generated the overwhelming majority of new jobs in April, contributing a total of 113,000, which helped to offset overall softness in the goods-producing sector, which was marked by a loss of 10,000 manufacturing jobs”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth appears to be slowing in response to very significant fiscal headwinds.  Tax increases and government spending cuts are beginning to hit the job market.  Job growth has slowed across all industries and most significantly among companies that employ between 20 and 499 workers.”

(The May 2013 ADP National Employment Report will be released at 8:15 a.m. ET on June 5, 2013).

ADP Small Business Report®:

Due to the important contribution that small businesses make to economic growth, employment data that are specific to businesses with 49 or fewer employees is reported monthly in the ADP Small Business Report®, a subset of the ADP National Employment Report.

April 2013 Small Business Report Highlights*

Total Small Business Employment:             50,000

●By Size
►1-19 employees	34,000
►20-49 employees	17,000
●By Sector for 1-49 Employees
►Goods Producing	9,000
►Service Producing	41,000
●By Sector for 1-19 Employees
►Goods Producing	8,000
►Service Producing	26,000
●By Sector for 20-49 Employees
►Goods Producing	1,000
►Service Producing	16,000

* Sum of components may not equal total, due to rounding.

Bottom-line:  To my audience of recruiters, always remember this:  Our ‘bread and butter’, especially on the contingency side of the house, has historically been, and continues to be, small and medium-sized client companies.  Along with the large companies, these companies need to be in included in your niche!

Job Openings and Structural Unemployment

 

On April 9^th, the BLS reported that there were 3,900,000 job openings on the last business day of February, up from 3,600,000 in January.  (The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey results for March 2013 are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, May 7^th, 2013).  The 3,900,000 reflects published openings comprised of jobs that are advertised either online or in print format.

This was the highest number of job openings since May 2008.

As we recruiters know, that 3,900,000 number only represents 20% of the jobs currently available in the marketplace.  The other 80% of job openings are unpublished and are filled through networking or word of mouth or by using a RECRUITER.   So, those 3,900,000 published job openings now become a total of 19,500,000 published and hidden job orders.

In April there were 11,659,000 unemployed workers.  What was the main reason why those job openings were open?  Two Words:  Structural Unemployment.  If we can’t figure out how to educate and/or reeducate those 11,659,000 unemployed, then they will keep reappearing each month as a BLS unemployment statistic—as they have.  In the meantime, our recruitment marketplace flourishes!

Online Labor Demand up 204,300 in April

May 1, 2013

• April rise offsets losses in February and March, leaving labor demand unchanged in 2013
• Metro areas show resilience with 24 of the 52 largest metro areas having fewer than 2 unemployed for every advertised vacancy
• Note: Revision to occupational levels for June 2012 forward

Online advertised vacancies rose 204,300 in April to 5,103,100 in The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series. The gain offsets earlier losses, leaving labor demand flat in 2013. The Supply/Demand rate stands at 2.4 unemployed for each vacancy. In March, there were 6.8 million more unemployed than the number of advertised vacancies, down from 11.9 million at the end of the recession in June 2009.

“For many workers looking for a new job, 2013 has been somewhat disappointing with the number of advertised vacancies in April largely unchanged from January,” said June Shelp, Vice President at The Conference Board. “The 204,000 rise in April is a good sign, but the question is: Will the improvement hold next month and will employers begin to add workers instead of just replacing those who leave?”

In the professional occupations, the only substantial rise in demand was for legal workers, up 35% since January, after having languishing in the early recovery years. The 2013 results in the service/manufacturing occupations are mixed with manufacturing stalling and sales workers and food service openings slumping. The bright note in this category is the building trades (construction and installation, maintenance and repair), which continue to post gains.

The April BLS Analysis

The unemployment rate is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a division of the US Department of Labor.  The rate is found by dividing the number of unemployed by the total civilian labor force.  On May 3^rd, 2013, the BLS published the most recent unemployment rate for April, 2013 of 7.5% (actually it is 7.510%, down .064% from 7.574%, in March, 2013).

The unemployment rate was determined by dividing the unemployed of 11,659,000—down from the month before by 83,000—since April, 2012 (one year ago), this number has decreased by 859,000) by the total civilian labor force of 155,238,000 (up by 210,000 from March, 2013).  Since April 2012, our total civilian labor force has increased by 787,000 people.

 

(The continuing ‘Strange BLS Math’ saga):  The BLS continues to increase the total Civilian Working Population—this time up to 245,175,000.  In one year’s time this population has increased by 2,391,000.  It has increased each month…

 

 

And this month the BLS have increased the Civilian Labor Force to 155,238,000 (up from March by 210,000). 

 

Subtract the second number from the first number and you get 89,937,000 (not 89,936,000 as reported) ‘Not in Labor Force’.  That is a decrease of 30,000 ‘Not in Labor Force’ in one month’s time!  Since April 2012, 1,604,000 US workers have vanished!  Where did those 1,604,000 potential workers disappear to in one year’s time?  I am assuming they still have to eat and pay their rent.  They still need money, don’t they?

 

Our Employment Participation Rate—the population 16 years and older working or seeking work—remained at 63.3%.  This is the lowest Employment Participation Rate recorded since May 1979…when Carter was President, 34 years ago!  One year ago, our Participation Rate in April was 63.6%.

 

Final take on these numbers:  Fewer people looking for work will always bring down the unemployment rate.

 

Anyway, back to the point I am trying to make.  On the surface, these new unemployment rates are scary, but let’s look a little deeper and consider some other numbers.

The unemployment rate includes all types of workers—construction workers, government workers, etc.  We recruiters, on the other hand, mainly place management, professional and related types of workers.  That unemployment rate in April dropped to 3.5% (this rate fell from last month’s 3.6%).  Or, you can look at it another way.  We usually place people who have college degrees.  That unemployment rate in April increased to 3.9% (up from last month’s 3.8%).

Now stay with me a little longer.  This gets better.  It’s important to understand (and none of the pundits mention this) that the unemployment rate, for many reasons, will never be 0%, no matter how good the economy is.  Without boring you any more than I have already, let me add here that Milton Friedman (the renowned Nobel Prize-winning economist), is famous for the theory of the “natural rate of unemployment” (or the term he preferred, NAIRU, which is the acronym for Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment).  Basically, this theory states that full employment presupposes an ‘unavoidable and acceptable’ unemployment rate of somewhere between 4-6% with it.  Economists often settle on 5%, although the “New Normal Unemployment Rate” has been suggested to fall at 6.7%.

Nevertheless (if you will allow me to apply a ‘macro’ concept to a ‘micro’ issue), if this rate is applied to our main category of Management, Professional and Related types of potential recruits, and/or our other main category of College-Degreed potential recruits, we find no unemployment!  None!  Zilch!

THE IMPORTANCE OF GDP

“The economic goal of any nation, as of any individual, is to get the greatest results with the least effort.  The whole economic progress of mankind has consisted in getting more production with the same labor…Translated into national terms, this first principle means that our real objective is to maximize production.  In doing this, full employment—that is, the absence of involuntary idleness—becomes a necessary by-product.  But production is the end, employment merely the means.  We cannot continuously have the fullest production without full employment.  But we can very easily have full employment without full production.”

 

—Economics in One Lesson, by Henry Hazlitt, Chapter X, “The Fetish of Full Employment” 

 On April 26^th, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced the first-quarter advance estimate of our real gross domestic product (GDP) — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 2.5% in the first quarter of 2013 (that is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 0.4%.

The economy needs to expand at about 3% just to keep the unemployment rate from rising.  Two consecutive quarters of a falling GDP indicate Recession.

IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR UNEMPLOYMENT EVER TO BE ZERO 

‘Unemployment’ is an emotional ‘trigger’ word…a ‘third rail’, if you will.  It conjures up negative thoughts.  But it is important to realize that, while we want everyone who wants a job to have the opportunity to work, unemployment can never be zero and, in fact, can be disruptive to an economy if it gets too close to zero.  Very low unemployment can actually hurt the economy by creating an upward pressure on wages which invariably leads to higher production costs and prices.  This can lead to inflation.  The lowest the unemployment rate has been in the US was 2.5%.  That was in May and June 1953 when the economy overheated due to the Korean War.  When this bubble burst, it kicked off the Recession of 1953.  A healthy economy will always include some percentage of unemployment.

There are five main sources of unemployment:

1. Cyclical (or demand-deficient) unemployment – This type of unemployment fluctuates with the business cycle.  It rises during a recession and falls during the subsequent recovery.  Workers who are most affected by this type of unemployment are laid off during a recession when production volumes fall and companies use lay-offs as the easiest way to reduce costs.  These workers are usually rehired, some months later, when the economy improves.

1. Frictional unemployment – This comes from the normal turnover in the labor force.  This is where new workers are entering the workforce and older workers are retiring and leaving vacancies to be filled by the new workers or those re-entering the workforce.  This category includes workers who are between jobs.

1. Structural unemployment – This happens when the skills possessed by the unemployed worker don’t match the requirements of the opening—whether those be in characteristics and skills or in location.  This can come from new technology or foreign competition (e.g., foreign outsourcing).  This type of unemployment usually lasts longer than frictional unemployment because retraining, and sometimes relocation, is involved.  Occasionally jobs in this category can just disappear overseas.

1. Seasonal unemployment – This happens when the workforce is affected by the climate or time of year.  Construction workers and agricultural workers aren’t needed as much during the winter season because of the inclement weather.  On the other hand, retail workers experience an increase in hiring shortly before, and during, the holiday season, but can be laid off shortly thereafter.

1. Surplus unemployment – This is caused by minimum wage laws and unions.  When wages are set at a higher level, unemployment can often result.  Why?  To keep within the same payroll budget, the company must let go of some workers to pay the remaining workers a higher salary.

Other factors influencing the unemployment rate:

1. Length of unemployment – Some studies indicate that an important factor influencing a workers decision to accept a new job is directly related to the length of the unemployment benefit they are receiving.  Just recently the government re-extended the eligibility for unemployment benefits from 26 weeks to as much as 73 weeks.  Studies suggest that this reduces the incentive of the unemployed to seek and accept less desirable jobs.

1. Changes in GDP – Since hiring workers takes time, the improvement in the unemployment rate usually lags behind the improvement in the GDP.

 

 

WHERE RECRUITERS PLACE

Now back to the issue at hand, namely the recruiting, and placing, of professionals and those with college degrees.

If you take a look at the past few years of unemployment in the April “management, professional and related” types of worker category, you will find the following rates:

April 2012                   3.7%

April 2011                   4.0%

April 2010                   4.5%

April 2009                   4.0%

April 2008                   2.0%

April 2007                   1.8%

April 2006                   1.9%

April 2005                   2.2%

April 2004                   2.6%

April 2003                   2.9%

April 2002                   2.7%

Here are the rates, during those same time periods, for “college-degreed” workers:

April 2012                   4.0%

April 2011                   4.5%

April 2010                   4.8%

April 2009                   4.4%

April 2008                   2.1%

April 2007                   1.8%

April 2006                   2.2%

April 2005                   2.4%

April 2004                   2.9%

April 2003                   3.1%

April 2002                   3.0%

So, while April’s 2013 rates for these two categories, 3.5% and 3.9%, respectively, are trending positively, when looking at the big picture, it’s not anything to be very happy about either—especially when we see how well we had it during the 2002-2008 time frame.  But regardless, these unemployment numbers usually include a good number of job hoppers, job shoppers and rejects.  We, on the other hand, are engaged by our client companies to find those candidates who are happy, well-appreciated, making good money and currently working and we entice them to move for even better opportunities—especially where new technologies are expanding.  This will never change.  And that is why, no matter the unemployment rate, we still need to market to find the best job orders and we still need to recruit to find the best candidates.

Below are the numbers for the over 25 year olds:

Less that H.S. diploma – Unemployment Rate

1/08	2/08	3/08	4/08	5/08	6/08	7/08	8/08	9/08	10/08	11/08	12/08
7.7%	7.4%	8.2%	7.9%	8.4%	8.9%	8.6%	9.7%	9.8%	10.4%	10.6%	10.9%

1/09	2/09	3/09	4/09	5/09	6/09	7/09	8/09	9/09	10/09	11/09	12/09
12.0%	12.6%	13.3%	14.8%	15.5%	15.5%	15.4%	15.6%	15.0%	15.5%	15.0%	15.3%

1/10	2/10	3/10	4/10	5/10	6/10	7/10	8/10	9/10	10/10	11/10	12/10
15.2%	15.6%	14.5%	14.7%	15.0%	14.1%	13.8%	14.0%	15.4%	15.3%	15.7%	15.3%

1/11	2/11	3/11	4/11	5/11	6/11	7/11	8/11	9/11	10/11	11/11	12/11
14.2%	13.9%	13.7%	14.6%	14.7%	14.3%	15.0%	14.3%	14.0%	13.8%	13.2%	13.8%

1/12	2/12	3/12	4/12	5/12	6/12	7/12	8/12	9/12	10/12	11/12	12/12
13.1%	12.9%	12.6%	12.5%	13.0%	12.6%	12.7%	12.0%	11.3%	12.2%	12.2%	11.7%

1/13	2/13	3/13	4/13	5/13	6/13	7/13	8/13	9/13	10/13	11/13	12/13
12.0%	11.2%	11.1%	11.6%

H.S. Grad; no college – Unemployment Rate

1/08	2/08	3/08	4/08	5/08	6/08	7/08	8/08	9/08	10/08	11/08	12/08
4.6%	4.7%	5.1%	5.0%	5.2%	5.2%	5.3%	5.8%	6.3%	6.5%	6.9%	7.7%

1/09	2/09	3/09	4/09	5/09	6/09	7/09	8/09	9/09	10/09	11/09	12/09
8.1%	8.3%	9.0%	9.3%	10.0%	9.8%	9.4%	9.7%	10.8%	11.2%	10.4%	10.5%

1/10	2/10	3/10	4/10	5/10	6/10	7/10	8/10	9/10	10/10	11/10	12/10
10.1%	10.5%	10.8%	10.6%	10.9%	10.8%	10.1%	10.3%	10.0%	10.1%	10.0%	9.8%

1/11	2/11	3/11	4/11	5/11	6/11	7/11	8/11	9/11	10/11	11/11	12/11
9.4%	9.5%	9.5%	9.7%	9.5%	10.0%	9.3%	9.6%	9.7%	9.6%	8.8%	8.7%

1/12	2/12	3/12	4/12	5/12	6/12	7/12	8/12	9/12	10/12	11/12	12/12
8.4%	8.3%	8.0%	7.9%	8.1%	8.4%	8.7%	8.8%	8.7%	8.4%	8.1%	8.0%

1/13	2/13	3/13	4/13	5/13	6/13	7/13	8/13	9/13	10/13	11/13	12/13
8.1%	7.9%	7.6%	7.4%

Some College; or AA/AS – Unemployment Rate

1/08	2/08	3/08	4/08	5/08	6/08	7/08	8/08	9/08	10/08	11/08	12/08
3.7%	3.8%	3.9%	4.0%	4.3%	4.4%	4.6%	5.0%	5.1%	5.3%	5.5%	5.6%

1/09	2/09	3/09	4/09	5/09	6/09	7/09	8/09	9/09	10/09	11/09	12/09
6.2%	7.0%	7.2%	7.4%	7.7%	8.0%	7.9%	8.2%	8.5%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%

1/10	2/10	3/10	4/10	5/10	6/10	7/10	8/10	9/10	10/10	11/10	12/10
8.5%	8.0%	8.2%	8.3%	8.3%	8.2%	8.3%	8.7%	9.1%	8.5%	8.7%	8.1%

1/11	2/11	3/11	4/11	5/11	6/11	7/11	8/11	9/11	10/11	11/11	12/11
8.0%	7.8%	7.4%	7.5%	8.0%	8.4%	8.3%	8.2%	8.4%	8.3%	7.6%	7.7%

1/12	2/12	3/12	4/12	5/12	6/12	7/12	8/12	9/12	10/12	11/12	12/12
7.2%	7.3%	7.5%	7.6%	7.9%	7.5%	7.1%	6.6%	6.5%	6.9%	6.6%	6.9%

1/13	2/13	3/13	4/13	5/13	6/13	7/13	8/13	9/13	10/13	11/13	12/13
7.0%	6.7%	6.4%	6.4%

BS/BS + – Unemployment Rate

1/08	2/08	3/08	4/08	5/08	6/08	7/08	8/08	9/08	10/08	11/08	12/08
2.1%	2.1%	2.1%	2.1%	2.3%	2.4%	2.5%	2.7%	2.6%	3.1%	3.2%	3.7%

1/09	2/09	3/09	4/09	5/09	6/09	7/09	8/09	9/09	10/09	11/09	12/09
3.8%	4.1%	4.3%	4.4%	4.8%	4.7%	4.7%	4.7%	4.9%	4.7%	4.9%	5.0%

1/10	2/10	3/10	4/10	5/10	6/10	7/10	8/10	9/10	10/10	11/10	12/10
4.9%	5.0%	4.9%	4.9%	4.7%	4.4%	4.5%	4.6%	4.4%	4.7%	5.1%	4.8%

1/11	2/11	3/11	4/11	5/11	6/11	7/11	8/11	9/11	10/11	11/11	12/11
4.2%	4.3%	4.4%	4.5%	4.5%	4.4%	4.3%	4.3%	4.2%	4.4%	4.4%	4.1%

1/12	2/12	3/12	4/12	5/12	6/12	7/12	8/12	9/12	10/12	11/12	12/12
4.2%	4.2%	4.2%	4.0%	3.9%	4.1%	4.1%	4.1%	4.1%	3.8%	3.8%	3.9%

1/13	2/13	3/13	4/13	5/13	6/13	7/13	8/13	9/13	10/13	11/13	12/13
3.7%	3.8%	3.8%	3.9%

Management, Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

1/08	2/08	3/08	4/08	5/08	6/08	7/08	8/08	9/08	10/08	11/08	12/08
2.2%	2.2%	2.1%	2.0%	2.6%	2.7%	2.9%	3.3%	2.8%	3.0%	3.2%	3.3%

1/09	2/09	3/09	4/09	5/09	6/09	7/09	8/09	9/09	10/09	11/09	12/09
4.1%	3.9%	4.2%	4.0%	4.6%	5.0%	5.5%	5.4%	5.2%	4.7%	4.6%	4.6%

1/10	2/10	3/10	4/10	5/10	6/10	7/10	8/10	9/10	10/10	11/10	12/10
5.0%	4.8%	4.7%	4.5%	4.5%	4.9%	5.0%	5.1%	4.4%	4.5%	4.7%	4.6%

1/11	2/11	3/11	4/11	5/11	6/11	7/11	8/11	9/11	10/11	11/11	12/11
4.7%	4.4%	4.3%	4.0%	4.4%	4.7%	5.0%	4.9%	4.4%	4.4%	4.2%	4.2%

1/12	2/12	3/12	4/12	5/12	6/12	7/12	8/12	9/12	10/12	11/12	12/12
4.3%	4.2%	4.2%	3.7%	4.0%	4.4%	4.8%	4.5%	3.9%	3.8%	3.6%	3.9%

1/13	2/13	3/13	4/13	5/13	6/13	7/13	8/13	9/13	10/13	11/13	12/13
3.9%	3.8%	3.6%	3.5%

Or employed…(,000)

1/08	2/08	3/08	4/08	5/08	6/08	7/08	8/08	9/08	10/08	11/08	12/08
52,165	52,498	52,681	52,819	52,544	52,735	52,655	52,626	53,104	53,485	53,274	52,548

1/09	2/09	3/09	4/09	5/09	6/09	7/09	8/09	9/09	10/09	11/09	12/09
52,358	52,196	52,345	52,597	52,256	51,776	51,810	51,724	52,186	52,981	52,263	52,131

1/10	2/10	3/10	4/10	5/10	6/10	7/10	8/10	9/10	10/10	11/10	12/10
52,159	52,324	52,163	52,355	51,839	51,414	50,974	50,879	51,757	51,818	52,263	51,704

1/11	2/11	3/11	4/11	5/11	6/11	7/11	8/11	9/11	10/11	11/11	12/11
51,866	52,557	53,243	53,216	52,778	52,120	51,662	51,997	52,665	52,864	52,787	52,808

1/12	2/12	3/12	4/12	5/12	6/12	7/12	8/12	9/12	10/12	11/12	12/12
53,152	53,208	53,771	54,055	54,156	53,846	53,165	53,696	54,655	55,223	54,951	54,635

1/13	2/13	3/13	4/13	5/13	6/13	7/13	8/13	9/13	10/13	11/13	12/13
54,214	54,563	54,721	54,767

And unemployed…(,000)

1/08	2/08	3/08	4/08	5/08	6/08	7/08	8/08	9/08	10/08	11/08	12/08
1,164	1,159	1,121	1,088	1,407	1,478	1,585	1,779	1,539	1,647	1,786	1,802

1/09	2/09	3/09	4/09	5/09	6/09	7/09	8/09	9/09	10/09	11/09	12/09
2,238	2,137	2,292	2,164	2,373	2,720	3,034	2,925	2,859	2,593	2,530	2,509

1/10	2/10	3/10	4/10	5/10	6/10	7/10	8/10	9/10	10/10	11/10	12/10
2,762	2,637	2,600	2,464	2,450	2,644	2,687	2,762	2,381	2,417	2,525	2,468

1/11	2/11	3/11	4/11	5/11	6/11	7/11	8/11	9/11	10/11	11/11	12/11
2,557	2,435	2,381	2,196	2,419	2,598	2,742	2,671	2,450	2,410	2,336	2,303

1/12	2/12	3/12	4/12	5/12	6/12	7/12	8/12	9/12	10/12	11/12	12/12
2,410	2,336	2,330	2,062	2,275	2,472	2,666	2,556	2,245	2,170	2,077	2,221

1/13	2/13	3/13	4/13	5/13	6/13	7/13	8/13	9/13	10/13	11/13	12/13
2,211	2,164	2,020	1,980

For a total Management, Professional & Related workforce of…(,000)

1/08	2/08	3/08	4/08	5/08	6/08	7/08	8/08	9/08	10/08	11/08	12/08
53,329	53,657	53,802	53,907	53,951	54,213	54,240	54,405	54,643	55,132	55,060	54,350

1/09	2/09	3/09	4/09	5/09	6/09	7/09	8/09	9/09	10/09	11/09	12/09
54,596	54,333	54,637	54,761	54,629	54,496	54,844	54,649	55,045	55,574	54,793	54,640

1/10	2/10	3/10	4/10	5/10	6/10	7/10	8/10	9/10	10/10	11/10	12/10
54,921	54,961	54,763	54,819	54,289	54,058	53,661	53,641	54,138	54,235	54,788	54,172

1/11	2/11	3/11	4/11	5/11	6/11	7/11	8/11	9/11	10/11	11/11	12/11
54,423	54,992	55,624	55,412	55,197	54,718	54,404	54,668	55,115	55,274	55,123	55,111

1/12	2/12	3/12	4/12	5/12	6/12	7/12	8/12	9/12	10/12	11/12	12/12
55,562	55,544	56,101	56,117	56,431	56,318	55,831	56,252	56,900	57,393	57,028	56,856

1/13	2/13	3/13	4/13	5/13	6/13	7/13	8/13	9/13	10/13	11/13	12/13
56,425	56,727	56,741	56,747

Management, Business and Financial Operations – Unemployment Rate

1/08	2/08	3/08	4/08	5/08	6/08	7/08	8/08	9/08	10/08	11/08	12/08
2.3%	2.3%	2.2%	2.1%	2.7%	2.5%	2.6%	2.8%	2.8%	3.0%	3.6%	3.9%

1/09	2/09	3/09	4/09	5/09	6/09	7/09	8/09	9/09	10/09	11/09	12/09
4.6%	4.5%	4.5%	4.4%	4.6%	4.8%	4.9%	5.0%	5.2%	5.4%	5.4%	5.2%

1/10	2/10	3/10	4/10	5/10	6/10	7/10	8/10	9/10	10/10	11/10	12/10
5.2%	5.1%	5.4%	5.1%	4.9%	4.8%	4.7%	4.9%	4.3%	5.0%	5.5%	5.7%

1/11	2/11	3/11	4/11	5/11	6/11	7/11	8/11	9/11	10/11	11/11	12/11
5.3%	4.9%	4.8%	4.6%	4.9%	4.6%	4.6%	4.6%	4.6%	4.7%	4.6%	4.4%

1/12	2/12	3/12	4/12	5/12	6/12	7/12	8/12	9/12	10/12	11/12	12/12
4.5%	4.4%	4.4%	4.0%	4.1%	3.8%	3.8%	3.7%	3.5%	3.6%	3.8%	4.1%

1/13	2/13	3/13	4/13	5/13	6/13	7/13	8/13	9/13	10/13	11/13	12/13
4.0%	3.9%	3.5%	3.5%

Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

1/08	2/08	3/08	4/08	5/08	6/08	7/08	8/08	9/08	10/08	11/08	12/08
2.1%	2.1%	2.0%	2.0%	2.5%	2.9%	3.2%	3.6%	2.8%	3.0%	3.0%	2.9%

1/10	2/10	3/10	4/10	5/10	6/10	7/10	8/10	9/10	10/10	11/10	12/10
4.9%	4.6%	4.3%	4.1%	4.3%	5.0%	5.2%	5.3%	4.4%	4.1%	4.1%	3.8%

1/11	2/11	3/11	4/11	5/11	6/11	7/11	8/11	9/11	10/11	11/11	12/11
4.3%	4.1%	3.9%	3.5%	4.0%	4.9%	5.3%	5.1%	4.4%	4.1%	4.0%	4.0%

1/12	2/12	3/12	4/12	5/12	6/12	7/12	8/12	9/12	10/12	11/12	12/12
4.2%	4.1%	4.0%	3.5%	4.0%	4.8%	5.5%	5.2%	4.3%	3.9%	3.5%	3.8%

1/13	2/13	3/13	4/13	5/13	6/13	7/13	8/13	9/13	10/13	11/13	12/13
3.8%	3.8%	3.6%	3.4%

Sales & Related – Unemployment Rate

1/08	2/08	3/08	4/08	5/08	6/08	7/08	8/08	9/08	10/08	11/08	12/08
5.2%	5.2%	4.8%	4.3%	5.1%	5.6%	6.2%	6.3%	5.7%	6.1%	6.5%	7.0%

1/09	2/09	3/09	4/09	5/09	6/09	7/09	8/09	9/09	10/09	11/09	12/09
7.7%	8.4%	8.9%	8.6%	8.9%	9.1%	8.3%	8.7%	8.9%	9.5%	9.1%	8.9%

1/10	2/10	3/10	4/10	5/10	6/10	7/10	8/10	9/10	10/10	11/10	12/10
10.1%	10.2%	9.7%	9.2%	9.6%	9.4%	10.1%	9.0%	9.4%	9.1%	8.8%	8.3%

1/11	2/11	3/11	4/11	5/11	6/11	7/11	8/11	9/11	10/11	11/11	12/11
9.3%	9.0%	8.5%	8.5%	9.4%	9.7%	9.4%	8.6%	9.4%	8.2%	7.8%	7.7%

1/12	2/12	3/12	4/12	5/12	6/12	7/12	8/12	9/12	10/12	11/12	12/12
8.2%	7.9%	8.1%	7.6%	7.9%	8.4%	8.3%	8.6%	7.9%	7.0%	7.3%	7.0%

1/13	2/13	3/13	4/13	5/13	6/13	7/13	8/13	9/13	10/13	11/13	12/13
8.5%	8.2%	7.7%	6.9%