BLS Analysis for November 2018

*Personal Note:  Coming from a Navy family (my father and I also served in the Navy), as I send out my monthly analysis, I want to take a minute to honor all of the WWII Pearl Harbor veterans (almost all have passed on by now)—one of whom was my grandfather, Jack Schuhmacher, a Chief Quartermaster aboard the USS Wasmuth, DD338, a minesweeper, which was anchored that day at Pearl City.  He survived the attack and the ensuing WWII to complete his 30-year naval career in 1955 as a Chief Warrant Officer.  I honor his memory and all those who lived through that day in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, Sunday, December 7th, 1941, “a date which will live in infamy”.

For those of you who are interested, I have attached my grandfather’s firsthand account of what took place in Pearl Harbor, 77 years ago.

 

Bob Marshall’s November 2018 BLS Analysis for Recruiters; 12/7/18

November BLS Preface

TBMG Coaching Updates and News

Bob Marshall – Coaching & Product Offer Updates:

 

FINAL DAYS!

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They are included in the special $500 price

 

As happened last year, I have been asked by some of my coaching clients to make available one of my products at a discount during

the Black Friday-CyberWeek Event.

I have decided to offer my audio tape series for $500 (regular price $1499)!

This is an update of my Audio Series which is based on “The Classics” tried and true methods to help insure your success in this, or any, economy.

These 43 sessions are not intended to be some sort of magic wand, just proven techniques and real solutions that really work in any economy!

The presentations include:

*Scintillating marketing presentations using the Feature-Accomplishment-Benefit (FAB) format;
*When to Stop Beating Dead Horses (Employers and Candidates);
*Techniques of the Superstars;
*The Concept of Inverted Cones – the natural progression to become a ‘Power Broker’;
*Sales Linkage – a quick way to make a non-adversarial presentation and to determine if objections are real or imagined;
*The Eight Point Candidate Prep;
*Planning & Organization, Part I & Part II
*Your Desk as a Manufacturing Plant;
…and 35 more…

This set is on 4 DVD discs, MP3 format, and included documents that are provided in both Adobe Acrobat & MS Word.

Contact us and we will ship this set the next day.

As always, I send my best,

Bob

 

WHY A COACH

“Teachers open the door; but you must enter by yourself”—Chinese Proverb

In the opinion of ex-Dallas Cowboys football coach Tom Landry who coached from 1960-1988, “A coach is someone who tells you what you don’t want to hear, who has you see what you don’t want to see, so you can be who you have always known you could be.”

Is now the time to pick a Coach?

I realize that taking that first step to engage a Coach to help you reach a higher level of production is not as easy as it sounds.  After all, your training investment – and your time – are important and deserve every consideration.  I share your feelings.  I believe that how you approach your recruitment career matters…that you should get what you pay for, and then some…that you should enjoy your time with your Coach as you are benefiting from it…and that you should never settle for the ordinary.

So for those of you who have been toying with the idea of working with a recruitment coach, now may be the time.  Only you can come to that decision point.

When considering ‘individual change management’, consider this theosophical proverb: “When the student is ready, the teacher will appear!”

“Bob Marshall is a speaker’s speaker and a trainer’s trainer.  He has a gift for taking the cornerstones of the business and compelling people and teams to not only hone their skills but to execute. We’ve had Bob engage our teams a number of times over the last few years and our groups always come away more focused on the core and more energized to perform. Come ready to learn because this man knows the business and will make you better!”

—David Alexander, President, Adecco & Soliant, January 2017

 

Preface

Many of you continue to correspond with me about these monthly BLS analyses and have asked if it is OK to use them in your presentations.  The answer is, of course, yes!  That is why I spend the time to assemble this information.  I would encourage any of you who have that desire to weave any of the information I have printed below into your presentations.  I write these analyses for the benefit of our recruitment industry in general and for the members of my distribution list in particular.  So use this info as you deem appropriate.

I also write these monthly BLS analyses to not only counterbalance the negative/incorrect press reporting of our general economic state but, more than that, to remind all of my recruitment readers that, at the level we work, there is no unemployment and so we must recruit to find the candidates our client companies so desperately need!

So, to my recruiter colleagues, get out there and do what your name implies…RECRUIT!  When your client companies have unique and difficult positions to fill, they need you.  When they are being picky, they need you.  When they are longing for more production from fewer employees, they need you.  Go fill those needs.  These should be the halcyon days in the recruitment arena!

Finally, always remember that we are not in an HR business, but in a ‘circumventing the time factor in the hiring sequence’ business—and adding value to our client companies.

 

Employees Want Holiday Bonuses, But Survey Finds 46% of Companies Don’t Give Them

Daily News, November 28, 2018

A bonus ranks as the top item employees would most like from their companies during the holidays, according to the 2018 Holidays at Work Survey commissioned by Spherion Staffing Services.

41% ranked a bonus as the #1 item they would most like.  However, 46% said their company does not give holiday bonuses or any other monetary gifts during the holidays, and for those that do get a bonus at the holidays, the majority receive less than $500.

Slightly more than half of employees surveyed, 52%, describe the holidays at their workplaces as “business as usual,” while 36% said their companies are “generous” around the holidays and 13% reported their companies are “stingy” during the holidays.

Employees cited the following as the perk’s companies are offering this year:

*          Holiday party: 36%

*          Extra time off: 28%

*          Holiday bonus: 26%

*          Office closure between Christmas and New Years’ Day: 22%

*          Company-paid holiday meal: 18%

*          Employee gift exchange: 18%

Companies are also giving back to the community, with 46% of employees surveyed saying their company will participate in charitable activities/give back to the community this holiday season.  The top activity will be food/clothing/toy/other drives at 51%, followed by company volunteer events and adopting a needy family or child, at 18% and 15% respectively.

The survey was conducted by Research Now SSI in November 2018.  It included more than 1,000 consumers.

 

No Revision in New GDP Estimate for US; Third-Quarter Growth Remains at 3.5%

Daily News, November 28, 2018

US real gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 3.5% in the 3rd quarter, according to the 2nd estimate of GDP growth released today by the US Commerce Department.  The new estimate is unchanged from the previous estimate.

The general picture of economic growth remains the same; upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and private inventory investment were offset by downward revisions to personal consumption expenditures and state and local government spending.

Real GDP for the US increased 4.2% in the 2nd quarter.

MarketWatch’s poll of economists had forecast 3rd quarter GDP would be revised up to 3.6% annual rate.  The economy exploded in the spring and summer, propelled by tax cuts, strong consumer spending and rapid business investment.  The unemployment rate also fell to a 48-year low of 3.7%.  Growth is unlikely to be as strong in the 4th quarter of 2018, MarketWatch reported.  Economists predict the US will expand at a 2.7% pace in the 4th quarter.

 

Third of Candidates Would Pass on Perfect Job If Culture Isn’t Right:  Robert Half

Daily News, November 27, 2018

Creating a positive corporate culture is top of mind for employers looking to recruit and retain talent, according to a study released today by Robert Half International Inc.  The research found both job seekers and employers place importance on corporate cultural fit.

The study found 35% of workers in the US and 40% in Canada wouldn’t accept a job that was a perfect match if the corporate culture clashed.  Additionally, 91% of US managers and 90% of Canadian managers said a candidate’s fit with the organizational culture is equal to or more important than their skills and experience.

While a majority of workers across North America said their ideal corporate culture is “supportive” or “team-oriented,” most described their company as “traditional.”

“In today’s competitive hiring environment, employers risk missing out on strong candidates if they don’t promote what makes their organizational culture unique,” said Paul McDonald, senior executive director for Robert Half.  “This research reinforces the notion that finding the right fit involves more than evaluating someone’s qualifications and experience.  There has to be a focus on what motivates that individual and the type of work environment in which they will thrive.”

The online surveys were developed by Robert Half and conducted by independent research firms.  They include responses from more than 1,000 US and more than 500 Canadian workers employed in office environments, and more than 5,500 US and more than 1,200 Canadian senior managers at companies with 20 more employees.

 

US Executives Optimistic for 2019, Talent Acquisition Top Serious Concern

Daily News, November 15, 2018

Executives are optimistic about their businesses growth in 2019 but concerned about a shortage of available talent, according to the Employer Associations of America’s 2018 National Business Trends Survey.

Nearly 74% of executive surveyed described their projected 2019 business outlook as a slight to significant increase in sales/revenue.  And more than half, 54%, reported they plan to hire permanent staff in 2019, with 72% hiring to fill newly created jobs.

Survey respondents’ top 5 serious concerns within the next year include:

  1. Talent acquisition: 54%
  2. Talent retention: 41%
  3. Ability to pay for benefit costs: 28%
  4. Ability to pay competitive wages: 33%
  5. Competition in general: 28%

Looking longer-term, the executives cited the following as their top serious concerns within the next 5 years:

  1. Talent acquisition: 57%
  2. Talent retention: 48%
  3. Ability to pay for benefit costs: 43%
  4. Ability to pay competitive wages: 40%
  5. Competition in general: 34%

Respondents identified adjusting pay ranges upward, focusing on existing staff receiving additional training and development, and increasing starting salaries as the top strategies to overcome recruitment and retention challenges.

The 2018 survey included 1,295 participating organizations throughout the US.

 

Manufacturing Faces Unprecedented Workforce Shortfall, 2,400,000 Jobs to go Unfilled

Daily News, November 14, 2018

The manufacturing industry’s pre-existing workforce crisis could get even worse according to a new 2018 skills gap study released today by Deloitte and The Manufacturing Institute — the social impact arm of the National Association of Manufacturers.

The widening manufacturing skills gap is expected to grow from about 488,000 jobs left open today to as many as 2,400,000 manufacturing jobs in 2028.  In turn, $454 billion in manufacturing GDP could be at risk in 2028, or more than $2.5 trillion over the next decade, according to the research.

“Manufacturers in the United States are experiencing some of the highest levels of growth we’ve seen in decades, yet the industry seems unable to keep up with the resulting rebound in job growth,” said Paul Wellener, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP, and US industrial products and construction leader.  “With nearly 2,000,000 vacant new jobs expected by 2028, compounded by 2,690,000 vacancies from retiring workers, the number of open positions could be greater than ever and might pose not only a major challenge for manufacturers but may threaten the vitality of the industry and our economy.”

5 out of 10 open positions for skilled workers in the US manufacturing industry remain unoccupied today due to the skills gap crisis, according to the report.  These include positions for skilled production workers, supply chain talent, digital talent, engineers, researchers, scientists, software engineers and operational managers.  The study points to the top reasons these positions tend to go unfilled, with the negative perception of the manufacturing industry topping the list, cited by 45% of survey participants, followed by the notable shift in desired skill sets due to the introduction of advanced technologies and retirement of baby boomers, both at 36%.

Manufacturing executives stated the top 5 skill sets expected to increase significantly in the coming 3 years due to the influx of automation and advanced technologies are:

*Technology/computer skills

*Digital skills

*Programming skills for robots/automation

*Working with tools and technology

*Critical thinking skills

To mitigate the impact of the skills shortage and begin to shrink the gap, most companies surveyed are focusing efforts on several specific areas, including adopting broader HR management practices to hire and retain talent, cited by 37%, and building knowledge transfer programs to pass on skills between retiring and new workers, cited by 32%.  24% have turned to outsourcing certain functions, according to the report.

Additional approaches surveyed manufacturers are taking to solve the employment challenge include:

*Adopting learning and development programs

*Increasing flexibility in the hiring process

*Tapping retiring, experienced workforce

*Turning to automated technologies and embracing technology

*Increasing wages and offering signing bonuses

 

Professionals Report Increased Work Stress, and 76% Cite Negative Impact on Personal Relationships:  Korn Ferry Survey

Daily News, November 9, 2018

Professionals report stress at work is increasing, according to a survey released by executive search firm Korn Ferry International Inc.  Nearly two-thirds of respondents, 65%, said their level of stress at work today is higher compared to 5 years ago.

76% of respondents said work has had a negative effect on their personal relationships and 66% said they have lost sleep due to work stressors.  In addition, 16% reported they have had to quit a job due to stress.

The survey also points to stress triggers.  The largest percentage of respondents, 35%, cited their boss as their biggest stressor at work, and 80% said a change in organizational leadership — e.g. new boss or division head — has affected their stress level.

The survey asked, “Compared to 5 years ago, what is the stress level in your workplace?” Responses include:

*  Much higher: 26%

*  Somewhat higher: 39%

*  Somewhat lower: 24%

*  Much lower: 10%

The survey also found that a heavy workload is less stressful than looking for something to do.  More than three-quarters of respondents, 79%, said not having enough work is more stressful than having too much work.

Survey participants were also asked, “If you had to pick one, what would you say is the biggest stressor at work?”  Responses include:

*  Your boss: 35%

*  Your coworkers: 14%

*  Too much work: 12%

*  Low salary: 19%

*  Long commute: 20%

“There are many factors that cause increased stress levels at work, including keeping up with changes in technology, increased workloads and interpersonal conflict,” said Dennis Baltzley, Korn Ferry senior partner and global head of leadership development solutions.  “Obviously the capacity to deal with stress will vary from individual to individual, but organizations can take steps to help mitigate stress, such as offering training on new technologies and development for managers on how best to lead.”

The survey included 1,951 responses from professionals and took place in October 2018.

 

50 Overused Terms (and 15 Great Ones) on a Resume

Sara Gerardo, November 5, 2018

Your resume is one of the most important documents of your life.  It helps determine whether or not you’ll obtain your dream job or receive that promotion.  In today’s blog, we cover the most overused words and phrases found in resumes.  These terms are guaranteed to make a hiring manager roll their eyes and skim the rest of the document, instead of giving your resume the attention it deserves.

One of the ways we coach candidates is on ensuring their resume is unique.  If you can remove your name from your resume and it looks like it could belong to anyone, your resume needs work.  Resumes should be as unique as the person it represents.  To help make it unique, avoid these all-too-common words and phrases:

  1. Analytical
  2. Creative
  3. Cutting edge
  4. Detail-oriented
  5. Driven
  6. Due diligence
  7. Dynamic
  8. Easy to get along with
  9. Effective
  10. Enthusiastic
  11. Excellent
  12. Experienced
  13. Expert
  14. Fast-paced
  15. Focused
  16. Go-getter
  17. Hard working
  18. Highly motivated
  19. Highly qualified
  20. Hit the ground running
  21. Honest
  22. Innovative
  23. Jack of all trades
  24. Leadership
  25. Microsoft Office
  26. Motivated
  27. Multi-tasker
  28. Open-minded
  29. Organized
  30. Outstanding
  31. Patient
  32. People person
  33. Problem solver
  34. Proficient
  35. Proven track record
  36. Quick learner
  37. References available upon request
  38. Responsible
  39. Results-oriented
  40. Seasoned
  41. Skilled
  42. Specialized
  43. Strategic
  44. Strong communication skills
  45. Successful
  46. Team Player
  47. Thinks outside the box
  48. Visionary
  49. Wears many hats
  50. Windows

How overused are they?  Every year, LinkedIn scans everyone’s profiles and reveals 10 of the most commonly used words.  Every year, some combination of the above make the list.  Here are the lists for 2010, 2014 and 2017.  Do you see some commonalities?  Despite nearly a decade going by, the same words are being used repeatedly.  According to CareerBuilder, hiring managers spend less than 30 seconds on a resume, largely in part to seeing these “buzzwords” repeated.

Instead of focusing on ways to describe yourself, prove it.  Don’t say you’re “results-oriented;” list some of your results.  Did you double revenue within your first year of employment?  Were you promoted?  Did you successfully lead a team on a project?  Showing the results of your hard work will say far more than any adjective.

As we mentioned before, some of the things to avoid are common to most people within the United States.  If children are learning in elementary school how to use Microsoft Office and Windows, it shouldn’t appear on your resume.  Likewise, it assumed that if you are an adult, you have a driver’s license; you don’t need to list it.  If your resume is in English, it is assumed that you speak English.  You do not need to list that, either.

In a study by Harris Poll, the following “buzzwords” caught hiring managers’ attention, causing them to spend more time on a resume, increasing average time up to 2 minutes.  Listed in order from most attention-getting:

  1. Achieved
  2. Improved
  3. Trained/Mentored
  4. Managed
  5. Created
  6. Resolved
  7. Volunteered
  8. Influenced
  9. Increased/Decreased
  10. Ideas
  11. Negotiated
  12. Launched
  13. Revenue/Portfolio
  14. Under budget
  15. Won

The similarity in these words to words to avoid is interesting to note.  The first 50 tend to be adjectives and ways to brag about oneself; the latter 15 are similar words, but are verbs, words that show accomplishments.  These are what we look for when we work on helping someone find their ideal company.  We want to know what they have done that makes them better than others, or different and what sets them apart.

 

The new ADP/Moody’s National Employment Report:  Over 92% of all new job growth in November 2018 came from Small and Medium-size Companies!

December 6, 2018

 

Private sector employment increased by 179,000 jobs from October to November (a 2,000 job decrease from October’s downwardly ‘revised’ 225,000*), according to the November ADP National Employment Report®.  *The October total of jobs added was revised down from 227,000 to 225,000.

 

This report is produced by ADP® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics.  The matched sample used to develop the ADP National Employment Report® was derived from ADP payroll data, which represents 411,000 U.S. clients employing nearly 24,000,000 workers in the U.S.

 

By Company Size

 

Small businesses:            46,000

1-19 employees                13,000

20-49 employees              33,000

 

Medium businesses:      119,000

50-499 employees           119,000

 

Large businesses:           13,000

500-999 employees           20,000

1,000+ employees           <-7,000>

 

By Sector

 

  1. Goods-producing:                               16,000

 

  1. Natural resources/mining                   2,000
  2. Construction                                    10,000
  3. Manufacturing                                      4,000

 

  1. Service-providing:     163,000

 

  1. Trade/transportation/utilities             18,000
  2. Information           <-1,000>
  3. Financial activities              8,000
  4. Professional/business services  59,000
  5. Professional/technical services                              25,000
  6. Management of companies/enterprises                     2,000
  7. Administrative/support services                            32,000
  8. Education/health services                          49,000
  9. Health care/social assistance                                  37,000
  10. Education                                                                12,000
  11. Leisure/hospitality                                     26,000
  12. Other services                                              3,000

 

Franchise Employment

 

Franchise Jobs                        11,500

 

“Although the labor market performed well, job growth decelerated slightly,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.  “Midsized businesses added nearly 70% of all jobs this month.  This growth points to the midsized businesses’ ability to provide stronger wages and benefits.  It also suggests they could be more insulated from the global challenges large enterprises face.’

 

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth is strong, but has likely peaked.  This month’s report is free of significant weather effects and suggests slowing underlying job creation.  With very tight labor markets and record unfilled positions, businesses will have an increasingly tough time adding to payrolls.

 

(The December 2018 ADP National Employment Report will be released at 8:15 a.m. ET on January 3, 2019.)

 

Due to the important contribution that small businesses make to economic growth, employment data that is specific to businesses with 49 or fewer employees is reported each month in the ADP Small Business Report®, a subset of the ADP National Employment Report.

 

November 2018 Small Business Report Highlights

 

Total Small Business Employment:             46,000 (a 17,000 increase)

 

●By Size  
►1-19 employees 13,000
►20-49 employees 33,000
●By Sector for 1-49 Employees  
►Goods Producing 5,000
►Service Producing 41,000
●By Sector for 1-19 Employees  
►Goods Producing <-2,000>
►Service Producing 15,000
●By Sector for 20-49 Employees  
►Goods Producing 7,000
►Service Producing 26,000

 

Bottom-line:  To my audience of recruiters, always remember this:  Our ‘bread and butter’, especially on the contingency side of the house, has historically been, and continues to be, small and medium-sized client companies.  Along with the large companies, these companies need to be in included in your niche!

 

 

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey – September 2018

November 6, 2018

 

The number of job openings decreased to 7,000,000 on the last business day of September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.  Over the month, hires and separations were both little changed at 5,700,000.  Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.4% and the layoffs and discharges rate was little changed at 1.1%.  This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by four geographic regions. Job Openings On the last business day of September, the job openings level fell to 7,000,000 (-284,000), after reaching a revised series high of 7,300,000 in August.  The job openings rate was 4.5% in September.  The number of job openings edged down for total private (-188,000) and fell in government (-96,000).  Job openings increased in health care and social assistance (+71,000).  The number of job openings decreased in many industries, with the largest decreases in professional and business services (-118,000), finance and insurance (-82,000), and state and local government, excluding education (-67,000).  Job openings decreased in the South region. Hires The number of hires in September was little changed at 5,700,000, after reaching a revised series high of 5,900,000 in August.  The hires rate was 3.8% in September.  The number of hires was little changed for total private and for government.  Hires were little changed in all industries.  Hires decreased in the West region. Separations Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations.  Total separations is referred to as turnover.  Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee.  Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs.  Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer.  Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm. The number of total separations was little changed at 5,700,000 in September.  The total separations rate was 3.8%.  The number of total separations was little changed for total private and edged down for government (-28,000).  Total separations decreased in state and local government education (-21,000).  The number of total separations decreased in the West region. The number of quits was little changed in September at 3,600,000.  The quits rate was 2.4%.  The number of quits was little changed for total private and for government.  Quits increased in educational services (+15,000), but decreased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-20,000) and state and local government education (-10,000).  The number of quits decreased in the West region. The number of layoffs and discharges was little changed in September at 1,700,000.  The layoffs and discharges rate was 1.1%.  The number of layoffs and discharges was little changed for total private and edged down for government (-19,000).  The number of layoffs and discharges was little changed in all industries and regions. The number of other separations was little changed in September at 365,000.  The other separations level was little changed for total private and for government.  Other separations increased in professional and business services (+22,000) but decreased in state and local government education (-7,000).  The number of other separations increased in the Midwest region. Net Change in Employment Large numbers of hires and separations occur every month throughout the business cycle.  Net employment change results from the relationship between hires and separations.  When the number of hires exceeds the number of separations, employment rises, even if the hires level is steady or declining.  Conversely, when the number of hires is less than the number of separations, employment declines, even if the hires level is steady or rising.  Over the 12 months ending in September, hires totaled 67,500,000 and separations totaled 65,100,000, yielding a net employment gain of 2,500,000.  These totals include workers who may have been hired and separated more than once during the year.­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­_______________________________________________________________________ The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey results for October 2018 are scheduled to be released on Monday, December 10, 2018 at 10:00 a.m. (EDT).

 

As we recruiters know, that 7,000,000 number only represents 20% of the jobs currently available in the marketplace.  The other 80% of job openings are unpublished and are filled through networking or word of mouth or by using a RECRUITER.  So, those 7,000,000 published job openings now become a total of 35,000,000 published AND hidden job orders.

 

In November there were 5,975,000 unemployed workers.  What was the main reason why those workers were unemployed?  Two Words:  Structural Unemployment.  If we can’t figure out how to educate and/or reeducate those 5,975,000 unemployed, then they will keep reappearing each month as a BLS unemployment statistic—as they have.  In the meantime, our recruitment marketplace flourishes!

 

 

Online Labor Demand Declined in November

December 5, 2018

 

*Online demand in mining grew by 22% over the past year, faster than all other industries

 

*Among occupation groups, computer and legal related ads experienced the fastest growth in the past 12 months

 

*The Northeast region saw the fastest job ads growth in the past year

 

The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL) Index declined in November. The Index now stands at 97.1 (July 2018=100), down from 99.8 in October.

 

Beginning with the December 2018 release, The Conference Board launched the Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index and the revised Help Wanted OnLine® Data Series.  The HWOL Index measures changes over time in advertised online job vacancies, improving upon the prior Data Series’ ability to assess local labor market trends.  The index does not measure differences in the number of ads among geographies, occupations, or industries.  It measures the change in ads relative to the base period (July 2018=100).  An increase in the index is associated with an increase in job openings and hiring activity in the US economy.  The revised HWOL Data Series reflects a new methodology and universe of online job ads.  Both the revised HWOL Data Series and the HWOL Index begin in January 2012.

 

“Despite the declines in October and November, the HWOL Index still remains at a level consistent with strong hiring activity,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board.  “We expect employment growth to remain strong and labor turnover rates to increase as the labor market gets tighter.  Recruiters will be as busy as ever finding qualified workers for new jobs and replacing workers who have moved on to other jobs.  With the slack in the labor market shrinking, the average time to fill job openings is likely to keep breaking records.  In such an environment, we expect employers to continue raising wages faster, accelerating wage growth by about 0.5% by the end of 2019.”

 

(The December 2018 Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series

will be released at 10:00 AM ET on Wednesday, January 9, 2019)

 

 

U-6 Update

 

In November 2018 the regular unemployment rate remained at 3.7% and the broader U-6 measure rose .2% to 7.6%.

 

The above 7.6% is referred to as the U-6 unemployment rate (found in the monthly BLS Employment Situation Summary, Table A-15; Table A-12 in 2008 and before).  It counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts “marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons.”  Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week.  And the “marginally attached workers” include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work.  The age considered for this calculation is 16 years and over.

 

Here is a look at the November U-6 numbers for the past 15 years:

 

November 2017                      8.0%

November 2016                      9.3%

November 2015                      9.9%

November 2014                      11.4%

November 2013                      13.1%

November 2012                      14.4%

November 2011                      15,6%

November 2010                      17.0%

November 2009                      17.2%

November 2008                      12.6%

November 2007                      8.4%

November 2006                      8.0%

November 2005                      8.7%

November 2004                      9.4%

November 2003                      10.1%

 

 

The November 2018 BLS Analysis

 

According to the November 2018 Employment Situation Summary, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a division of the US Department of Labor, the total nonfarm

payroll employment rose by 155,000 in November – a decrease of 82,000 from last month’s ‘revised’ 237,000—down from the originally reported 250,000.  The change for September was revised up from 118,000 to 119,000.  With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 12,000 less than previously reported.  (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)  After revisions, job gains have averaged 170,000 per month over the last 3 months.

 

The unemployment rate is also published by the BLS.  That rate is found by dividing the number of unemployed by the total civilian labor force.  On December 7th, 2018, the BLS published the most recent unemployment rate for November 2018 of 3.7% (actually it is 3.671%, down by .064% from 3.735% in October 2018).

 

The unemployment rate was determined by dividing the unemployed of 5,975,000 (–down from the month before by 100,000—since November 2017 this number has decreased by 641,000) by the total civilian labor force of 162,770,000 (up by 133,000 from October 2018).  Since November 2017, our total civilian labor force has increased by 2,237,000 workers.

 

(The continuing ‘Strange BLS Math’ saga—after a detour in December 2016 when the BLS {for the first time in years} DECREASED the total Civilian Noninstitutional Population—this month the BLS again increased this total to 258,708,000.  This is an increase of 194,000 from last month’s increase of 224,000.  In one year’s time, this population has increased by 2,759,000. For the last 3 years the Civilian Noninstitutional Population has increased each month—except in December 2016—by…)

 

Up from October 2018 by 194,000
Up from September 2018 by 224,000
Up from August 2018 by 224,000
Up from July 2018 by 223,000
Up from June 2018 by 201,000
Up from May 2018 by 188,000
Up from April 2018 by 182,000
Up from March 2018 by 175,000
Up from February 2018 by 163,000
Up from January 2018 by 154,000
Up from December 2017 by 671,000
Up from November 2017 by 160,000
Up from October 2017 by 183,000
Up from September 2017 by 204,000
Up from August 2017 by 205,000
Up from July 2017 by 206,000
Up from June 2017 by 194,000
Up from May 2017 by 173,000
Up from April 2017 by 179,000
Up from March 2017 by 174,000
Up from February 2017 by 168,000
Up from January 2017 by 164,000
Down from December 2016 by 660,000
Up from November 2016 by 202,000
Up from October 2016 by 219,000
Up from September 2016 by 230,000
Up from August 2016 by 237,000
Up from July 2016 by 234,000
Up from June 2016 by 223,000
Up from May 2016 by 223,000
Up from April 2016 by 205,000
Up from March 2016 by 201,000
Up from February 2016 by 191,000
Up from January 2016 by 180,000

 

This month the BLS has increased the Civilian Labor Force to 162,770,000 (up from October by 133,000).

 

Subtract the second number (‘civilian labor force’) from the first number (‘civilian noninstitutional population’) and you get 95,938,000 ‘Not in Labor Force’—up by 60,000 from last month’s 95,877,000.  In one year’s time, this NILF population has increased by 521,000.  The government tells us that most of these NILFs got discouraged and just gave up looking for a job.  My monthly recurring question is: “If that is the case, how do they survive when they don’t earn any money because they don’t have a job?  Are they ALL relying on the government to support them??”

 

This month, our Employment Participation Rate—the population 16 years and older working or seeking work— remained at 62.9%.  This is .5% above the historically low rate of 62.4% recorded in September 2015—and, before that, the rate recorded in October 1977—9 months into Jimmy Carter’s presidency—almost 40 years ago!

 

Final take on these numbers:  Fewer people looking for work will always bring down the unemployment rate.

 

Anyway, back to the point I am trying to make.  On the surface, these new unemployment rates are scary, but let’s look a little deeper and consider some other numbers.

 

The unemployment rate includes all types of workers—construction workers, government workers, etc.  We recruiters, on the other hand, mainly place management, professional and related types of workers.  That unemployment rate in November was 2.1% (this rate was .2% higher than last month’s 1.9%).  Or, you can look at it another way.  We usually place people who have college degrees.  That unemployment rate in November was 2.2% (this rate was .2% higher than last month’s 2.0%).

 

Now stay with me a little longer.  This gets better.  It’s important to understand (and none of the pundits mention this) that the unemployment rate, for many reasons, will never be 0%, no matter how good the economy is.  Without boring you any more than I have already, let me add here that Milton Friedman (the renowned Nobel Prize-winning economist), is famous for the theory of the “natural rate of unemployment” (or the term he preferred, NAIRU, which is the acronym for Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment).  Basically, this theory states that full employment presupposes an ‘unavoidable and acceptable’ unemployment rate of somewhere between 4-6% with it.  Economists often settle on 5%, although the “New Normal Unemployment Rate” has been suggested to fall at 6.7%.

 

Nevertheless (if you will allow me to apply a ‘macro’ concept to a ‘micro’ issue), if this rate is applied to our main category of Management, Professional and Related types of potential recruits, and/or our other main category of College-Degreed potential recruits, we are well below the 4-6% threshold for full employment…we find no unemployment!  None!  Zilch!  A Big Goose Egg!

 

 

THE IMPORTANCE OF GDP

 

“The economic goal of any nation, as of any individual, is to get the greatest results with the least effort.  The whole economic progress of mankind has consisted in getting more production with the same labor…Translated into national terms, this first principle means that our real objective is to maximize production.  In doing this, full employment—that is, the absence of involuntary idleness—becomes a necessary by-product.  But production is the end, employment merely the means.  We cannot continuously have the fullest production without full employment.  But we can very easily have full employment without full production.”

 

Economics in One Lesson, by Henry Hazlitt, Chapter X, “The Fetish of Full Employment”

On November 28th, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced the real gross domestic product (GDP) — the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes — increased at an annual rate of 3.5% in the third quarter of 2018, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the second quarter of 2018, real GDP increased 4.2%.

The GDP estimate released on November 28th is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month.  In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 3.5%.  With this 2nd estimate for the third quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and private inventory investment were offset by downward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and state and local government spending.

 

The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive contributions from PCE, private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from exports and residential fixed investment.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

 

The deceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter primarily reflected a downturn in exports and decelerations in nonresidential fixed investment and in PCE.  Imports increased in the third quarter after decreasing in the second.  These movements were partly offset by an upturn in private inventory investment.

 

 

Updates to GDP

 

The percent change in real GDP was unrevised from the second estimate, reflecting a downward revision to private inventory investment that was offset by upward revisions to state and local government spending, PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and residential fixed investment.  Imports were revised down slightly.

 

Three Update Releases to GDP BEA releases 3 vintages of the current quarterly estimate for GDP:  “Advance” estimates are released near the end of the first month following the end of the quarter and are based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency; “second” and “third” estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively, and are based on more detailed and more comprehensive data as they become available. (Third Quarter 2018 “Third Estimate” will be released on December 21, 2018) 

IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR UNEMPLOYMENT EVER TO BE ZERO

 

‘Unemployment’ is an emotional ‘trigger’ word…a ‘third rail’, if you will.  It conjures up negative thoughts.  But it is important to realize that, while we want everyone who wants a job to have the opportunity to work, unemployment can never be zero and, in fact, can be disruptive to an economy if it gets too close to zero.  Very low unemployment can actually hurt the economy by creating an upward pressure on wages which invariably leads to higher production costs and prices.  This can lead to inflation.  The lowest the unemployment rate has been in the US was 2.5%.  That was in May and June 1953 when the economy overheated due to the Korean War.  When this bubble burst, it kicked off the Recession of 1953.  A healthy economy will always include some percentage of unemployment.

 

There are five main sources of unemployment:

 

  1. Cyclical (or demand-deficient) unemployment – This type of unemployment fluctuates with the business cycle. It rises during a recession and falls during the subsequent recovery.  Workers who are most affected by this type of unemployment are laid off during a recession when production volumes fall, and companies use lay-offs as the easiest way to reduce costs.  These workers are usually rehired, some months later, when the economy improves.

 

  1. Frictional unemployment – This comes from the normal turnover in the labor force. This is where new workers are entering the workforce and older workers are retiring and leaving vacancies to be filled by the new workers or those re-entering the workforce.  This category includes workers who are between jobs.

 

  1. Structural unemployment – This happens when the skills possessed by the unemployed worker don’t match the requirements of the opening—whether those be in characteristics and skills or in location. This can come from new technology or foreign competition (e.g., foreign outsourcing).  This type of unemployment usually lasts longer than frictional unemployment because retraining, and sometimes relocation, is involved.  Occasionally jobs in this category can just disappear overseas.

 

  1. Seasonal unemployment – This happens when the workforce is affected by the climate or time of year. Construction workers and agricultural workers aren’t needed as much during the winter season because of the inclement weather.  On the other hand, retail workers experience an increase in hiring shortly before, and during, the holiday season, but can be laid off shortly thereafter.

 

  1. Surplus unemployment – This is caused by minimum wage laws and unions. When wages are set at a higher level, unemployment can often result.  Why?  To keep within the same payroll budget, the company must let go of some workers to pay the remaining workers a higher salary.

 

Other factors influencing the unemployment rate:

 

  1. Length of unemployment – Some studies indicate that an important factor influencing a worker’s decision to accept a new job is directly related to the length of the unemployment benefit they are receiving. Currently, in 2018, workers in most states are eligible for up to 26 weeks of benefits from the regular state-funded unemployment compensation program.  Studies suggest that additional weeks of benefits reduce the incentive of the unemployed to seek and accept less desirable jobs.

 

  1. Changes in GDP – Since hiring workers takes time, the improvement in the unemployment rate usually lags the improvement in the GDP.

 

WHERE RECRUITERS PLACE

 

Now back to the issue at hand, namely the recruiting, and placing, of professionals and those with college degrees.

 

If you look at the past few years of unemployment in the November “management, professional and related” types of worker category, you will find the following rates:

 

November 2017                      2.0%

November 2016                      2.3%

November 2015                      2.1%

November 2014                      2.8%

November 2013                      3.1%

November 2012                      3.6%

November 2011                      4.2%

November 2010                      4.7%

November 2009                      4.6%

November 2008                      3.2%

November 2007                      1.8%

November 2006                      1.7%

November 2005                      2.1%

November 2004                      2.4%

November 2003                      2.9%

November 2002                      2.9%

November 2001                      2.8%

November 2000                      1.7%

 

Here are the rates, during those same time periods, for “college-degreed” workers:

 

November 2017                      2.1%

November 2016                      2.3%

November 2015                      2.5%

November 2014                      3.2%

November 2013                      3.4%

November 2012                      3.9%

November 2011                      4.4%

November 2010                      5.1%

November 2009                      4.9%

November 2008                      3.2%

November 2007                      2.2%

November 2006                      1.9%

November 2005                      2.2%

November 2004                      2.5%

November 2003                      3.1%

November 2002                      2.9%

November 2001                      2.9%

November 2000                      1.6%

 

The November 2018 rates for these two categories, 2.1% and 2.2%, respectively, are very low again this month and are at, or close to, the halcyon numbers we attained in the 2005-2007 & 2000 time frames.  But regardless, these unemployment numbers usually include a good number of job hoppers, job shoppers and rejects.  We, on the other hand, are engaged by our client companies to find those candidates who are happy, well-appreciated, making good money and currently working and we entice them to move for even better opportunities—especially where new technologies are expanding.  This will never change.  And that is why, no matter the overall unemployment rate, we still need to MARKET to find the best possible job orders to work and we still need to RECRUIT to find the best possible candidates for those Job Orders.

 

 

Below are the numbers for the over 25-year old’s:

 

 

Less than H.S. diploma – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
7.7% 7.4% 8.2% 7.9% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 9.7% 9.8% 10.4% 10.6% 10.9%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
12.0% 12.6% 13.3% 14.8% 15.5% 15.5% 15.4% 15.6% 15.0% 15.5% 15.0% 15.3%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
15.2% 15.6% 14.5% 14.7% 15.0% 14.1% 13.8% 14.0% 15.4% 15.3% 15.7% 15.3%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
14.2% 13.9% 13.7% 14.6% 14.7% 14.3% 15.0% 14.3% 14.0% 13.8% 13.2% 13.8%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
13.1% 12.9% 12.6% 12.5% 13.0% 12.6% 12.7% 12.0% 11.3% 12.2% 12.2% 11.7%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
12.0% 11.2% 11.1% 11.6% 11.1% 10.7% 11.0% 11.3% 10.3% 10.9% 10.8% 9.8%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
9.6% 9.8% 9.6% 8.9% 9.1% 9.1% 9.6% 9.1% 8.4% 7.9% 8.5% 8.8%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
8.5% 8.4% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.2% 8.3% 7.7% 7.7% 7.3% 6.8% 6.7%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
7.4% 7.3% 7.4% 7.5% 7.1% 7.5% 6.3% 7.2% 8.5% 7.3% 7.9% 7.9%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
7.3% 7.9% 6.8% 6.5% 6.1% 6.4% 6.9% 6.0% 6.5% 5.7% 5.2% 6.3%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
5.4% 5.7% 5.5% 5.9% 5.4% 5.5% 5.1% 5.7% 5.5% 6.0% 5.6%

 

 

H.S. Grad; no college – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
4.6% 4.7% 5.1% 5.0% 5.2% 5.2% 5.3% 5.8% 6.3% 6.5% 6.9% 7.7%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
8.1% 8.3% 9.0% 9.3% 10.0% 9.8% 9.4% 9.7% 10.8% 11.2% 10.4% 10.5%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.5% 10.8% 10.6% 10.9% 10.8% 10.1% 10.3% 10.0% 10.1% 10.0% 9.8%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.4% 9.5% 9.5% 9.7% 9.5% 10.0% 9.3% 9.6% 9.7% 9.6% 8.8% 8.7%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.4% 8.3% 8.0% 7.9% 8.1% 8.4% 8.7% 8.8% 8.7% 8.4% 8.1% 8.0%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.1% 7.9% 7.6% 7.4% 7.4% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.3% 7.3% 7.1%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.5% 6.4% 6.3% 6.3% 6.5% 5.8% 6.1% 6.2% 5.3% 5.7% 5.6% 5.3%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.4% 5.8% 5.4% 5.5% 5.5% 5.3% 5.3% 5.4% 5.6%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
5.3% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 5.1% 5.2% 5.5% 4.9% 5.1%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
5.2% 5.0% 4.9% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5% 5.1% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 3.9% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 3.7% 4.0% 3.5%

 

 

Some College; or AA/AS – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
3.7% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.6% 5.0% 5.1% 5.3% 5.5% 5.6%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
6.2% 7.0% 7.2% 7.4% 7.7% 8.0% 7.9% 8.2% 8.5% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
8.5% 8.0% 8.2% 8.3% 8.3% 8.2% 8.3% 8.7% 9.1% 8.5% 8.7% 8.1%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
8.0% 7.8% 7.4% 7.5% 8.0% 8.4% 8.3% 8.2% 8.4% 8.3% 7.6% 7.7%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
7.2% 7.3% 7.5% 7.6% 7.9% 7.5% 7.1% 6.6% 6.5% 6.9% 6.6% 6.9%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
7.0% 6.7% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5% 6.4% 6.0% 6.1% 6.0% 6.3% 6.4% 6.1%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.0% 6.2% 6.1% 5.7% 5.5% 5.0% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.2% 5.1% 4.8% 4.7% 4.4% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.4% 4.1%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 3.9% 3.8%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
3.8% 4.0% 3.7% 3.7% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.8% 3.6% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 3.2% 3.5% 3.2% 3.0% 3.1%

 

 

BS/BS + – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 2.6% 3.1% 3.2% 3.7%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
3.9% 4.1% 4.3% 4.4% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.9% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.8% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.4% 4.7% 5.1% 4.8%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.2% 4.3% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.1%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% 3.4% 3.3%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 3.1% 3.2% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 2.8%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.8% 2.7% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.3% 2.5%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
2.1% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.2%

 

 

Management, Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 3.3% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 4.0% 4.6% 5.0% 5.5% 5.4% 5.2% 4.7% 4.6% 4.6%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 4.5% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 4.4% 4.5% 4.7% 4.6%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.7% 4.4% 4.3% 4.0% 4.4% 4.7% 5.0% 4.9% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 4.2%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 3.7% 4.0% 4.4% 4.8% 4.5% 3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.9%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 4.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.5% 3.4% 3.1% 2.9%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 2.9% 3.1% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 2.7%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.9% 2.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.9% 3.1% 2.9% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% 2.8% 3.0% 3.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 2.3% 2.7% 2.8% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.0% 1.9% 2.1%

 

 

Or employed…(,000)

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
52,165 52,498 52,681 52,819 52,544 52,735 52,655 52,626 53,104 53,485 53,274 52,548

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
52,358 52,196 52,345 52,597 52,256 51,776 51,810 51,724 52,186 52,981 52,263 52,131

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
52,159 52,324 52,163 52,355 51,839 51,414 50,974 50,879 51,757 51,818 52,263 51,704

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
51,866 52,557 53,243 53,216 52,778 52,120 51,662 51,997 52,665 52,864 52,787 52,808

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
53,152 53,208 53,771 54,055 54,156 53,846 53,165 53,696 54,655 55,223 54,951 54,635

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
54,214 54,563 54,721 54,767 54,740 54,323 54,064 54,515 55,013 55,155 55,583 54,880

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
55,096 55,501 56,036 55,896 56,202 55,714 55,381 55,646 56,365 56,759 57,110 56,888

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
57,367 57,596 57,805 57,953 58,155 57,710 57,392 57,288 58,105 58,456 58,667 59,030

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
59,014 59,583 60,080 59,690 59,613 59,181 58,434 58,526 59,599 59,766 59,707 60,069

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
59,921 61,064 61,156 61,317 61,174 60,705 59,923 59,559 60,990 61,062 61,818 62,121

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
62,123 62,908 63,067 62,561 62,360 61,349 61,433 61,593 62,181 62,929 63,084

 

 

And unemployed…(,000)

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
1,164 1,159 1,121 1,088 1,407 1,478 1,585 1,779 1,539 1,647 1,786 1,802

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
2,238 2,137 2,292 2,164 2,373 2,720 3,034 2,925 2,859 2,593 2,530 2,509

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
2,762 2,637 2,600 2,464 2,450 2,644 2,687 2,762 2,381 2,417 2,525 2,468

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
2,557 2,435 2,381 2,196 2,419 2,598 2,742 2,671 2,450 2,410 2,336 2,303

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
2,410 2,336 2,330 2,062 2,275 2,472 2,666 2,556 2,245 2,170 2,077 2,221

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
2,211 2,164 2,020 1,980 1,990 2,358 2,286 2,130 1,978 1,930 1,749 1,637

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
1,784 1,845 1,890 1,642 1,795 2,001 2,011 1,930 1,617 1,582 1,656 1,568

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
1,741 1,601 1,398 1,435 1,460 1,714 1,807 1,686 1,414 1,312 1,276 1,208

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
1,404 1,456 1,477 1,251 1,305 1,712 1,782 1,869 1,652 1,506 1,382 1,361

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
1,425 1,313 1,265 1,254 1,208 1,440 1,656 1,731 1,463 1,285 1,266 1,290

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
1,374 1,301 1,310 1,134 1,083 1,575 1,539 1,591 1,299 1,246 1,330

 

 

For a total Management, Professional & Related workforce of…(,000)

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
53,329 53,657 53,802 53,907 53,951 54,213 54,240 54,405 54,643 55,132 55,060 54,350

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
54,596 54,333 54,637 54,761 54,629 54,496 54,844 54,649 55,045 55,574 54,793 54,640

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
54,921 54,961 54,763 54,819 54,289 54,058 53,661 53,641 54,138 54,235 54,788 54,172

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
54,423 54,992 55,624 55,412 55,197 54,718 54,404 54,668 55,115 55,274 55,123 55,111

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
55,562 55,544 56,101 56,117 56,431 56,318 55,831 56,252 56,900 57,393 57,028 56,856

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
56,425 56,727 56,741 56,747 56,730 56,681 56,350 56,645 56,991 57,085 57,332 56,517

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
56,880 57,346 57,926 57,538 57,997 57,715 57,392 57,576 57,982 58,341 58,766 58,456

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
59,108 59,197 59,203 59,388 59,615 59,424 59,199 58,974 59,519 59,768 59,943 60,238

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
60,418 61,039 61,557 60,941 60,918 60,893 60,216 60,395 61,251 61,272 61,089 61,430

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
61,346 62,377 62,421 62,571 62,382 62,145 61,579 61,290 62,453 62,347 63,084 63,411

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
63,497 64,209 64,377 63,695 63,443 62,924 62,972 63,184 63,480 64,175 64,414

 

 

Management, Business and Financial Operations – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 3.0% 3.6% 3.9%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.4% 5.2%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.2% 5.1% 5.4% 5.1% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.9% 4.3% 5.0% 5.5% 5.7%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
5.3% 4.9% 4.8% 4.6% 4.9% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 4.4%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.5% 4.4% 4.4% 4.0% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 4.1%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
4.0% 3.9% 3.5% 3.5% 3.8% 3.5% 3.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.7% 3.2% 3.1%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.4% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.9% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 1.9%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.3% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.8% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.4% 2.5% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 2.1% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.0% 2.1%

 

 

Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.9% 3.2% 3.6% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.9% 4.6% 4.3% 4.1% 4.3% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3% 4.4% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.3% 4.1% 3.9% 3.5% 4.0% 4.9% 5.3% 5.1% 4.4% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.8% 5.5% 5.2% 4.3% 3.9% 3.5% 3.8%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 4.6% 4.7% 4.0% 3.6% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 2.6% 2.9% 4.0% 4.1% 3.9% 3.1% 2.7% 2.9% 2.8%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.9% 2.7% 2.2% 2.3% 2.1% 3.2% 3.6% 3.3% 2.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.4% 2.2% 2.3% 1.8% 2.0% 3.1% 3.4% 3.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.2% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 2.6% 3.3% 3.1% 2.3% 2.2% 2.0% 2.1%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
2.3% 2.0% 2.1% 1.8% 1.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 2.0% 1.9% 2.1%

 

 

Sales & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
5.2% 5.2% 4.8% 4.3% 5.1% 5.6% 6.2% 6.3% 5.7% 6.1% 6.5% 7.0%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
7.7% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 8.9% 9.1% 8.3% 8.7% 8.9% 9.5% 9.1% 8.9%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.2% 9.7% 9.2% 9.6% 9.4% 10.1% 9.0% 9.4% 9.1% 8.8% 8.3%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.3% 9.0% 8.5% 8.5% 9.4% 9.7% 9.4% 8.6% 9.4% 8.2% 7.8% 7.7%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.2% 7.9% 8.1% 7.6% 7.9% 8.4% 8.3% 8.6% 7.9% 7.0% 7.3% 7.0%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.5% 8.2% 7.7% 6.9% 7.1% 6.7% 6.9% 7.2% 7.5% 7.3% 7.0% 6.3%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
7.1% 7.7% 6.8% 5.8% 6.8% 6.1% 6.2% 5.6% 5.4% 5.2% 5.3% 5.0%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.8% 5.2% 5.8% 5.5% 5.8% 5.6% 5.8% 5.4% 5.6% 5.3% 5.1% 4.3%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
5.0% 4.4% 4.4% 5.2% 5.1% 4.9% 4.9% 4.8% 5.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.6%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
5.2% 4.3% 3.9% 4.2% 4.5% 4.8% 4.2% 4.2% 3.7% 4.0% 4.1% 3.8%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.1% 4.2% 4.4% 4.0% 3.5% 4.0% 3.6% 3.7%