BLS Analysis for September 2013

By on October 13, 2013 in BLS Analysis

Bob Marshall’s September 2013 BLS Analysis; 10/22/13 

“Welcome Back Edition”

 The partial government shutdown is now over and our BLS Analysis can proceed without further delay.  The numbers in this Analysis are the newest numbers, released on Tuesday, October 22, 2013, covering the economic situation in September.  Enjoy.

September BLS Preface

 TBMG News

Bob Marshall – Training/Coaching Updates

Big Biller Summit 2013

Between October 22-25, 2013, I will be joining 19 of the world’s top recruiting industry experts at the free Big Biller Summit 2013, put together by Mark Whitby whose home base is in Scotland.  As of Thursday, October 17th, 1,784 people from 43 countries had registered for this event.  Keep an eye on your inbox for specific details, dates and times.

My presentation will be entitled, “When to Stop Flogging Dead Horses”.  It is scheduled to be aired as the last of the presentations on Day Two, October 23rd, 2013.

WAPS Fall Conference, Milwaukee. WI, November 2013:

I will be presenting at the Wisconsin Association of Personnel Services (WAPS) Fall Conference this November 5th, 2013, in Milwaukee.

Here is my working outline:

  1. “Your Desk as a Manufacturing Plant”
  2. “Marketing Call Mastery”
  3. “Recruiting The Placeable Candidate”
  4. “When Do You Stop Beating a Dead Horse?”

IPA National Convention 2014, Las Vegas, NV, April 3-4, 2014 :

Next year, I will be presenting at the Inter-City Personnel Associates (IPA) National Convention at Bally’s, Las Vegas, NV on April 3-4, 2014.  My topics will be determined at a later date.

 

COACHING**

**Now, if you are serious about increasing your billings, give my prized $1,000,000 billing student, David Thaler (502-531-9890), a call.  He will let you know what I did for him and what I can do for you to help you reach your maximum potential.  If you are ready to invest in yourself and to receive the info you need, to bill at high levels, I can give you that information.  Then it will be up to you to execute.  The ball is in your court.

Here are the details of my three coaching plans:

This is a 3-month plan.  In this plan, I will put in place all of the tools that you will need to become a profitable recruiter.  My five major products (training manual, daily planner, QRG, forms and the ‘Classics’ audio series) are included in this selection.  We will have a meeting, up to one hour, once per week and I will be available to continually work with you and answer your questions on a weekly, 8am-5pm basis.  Admission into the Illuminati Think Tank series is included, with access to select past recordings.

This is a month-to-month plan.  In this plan, I will be available to you for 4 separate meetings, up to one hour, to be parceled out as you choose, but must be used within a 4-5 week period.  Admission into the Illuminati Think Tank series is included.

 

This is an hourly ‘a la carte’ plan.  Once you have selected a date/time for our one hour meeting, (for coaching and/or training) and confirmed that date/time with me (and prepaid via PayPal), this plan goes into effect.  After the meeting, you are also entitled to follow-up emails during the next five days.

*All the details of my coaching plans, and products, are available to you on my website:  www.themarshallplan.org or you can reach me at 770-898-5550 or email me at:    bob@themarshallplan.org.

 

Preface

Many of you continue to correspond with me about these monthly BLS analyses and have asked if it is OK to use them in your presentations.  The answer is, of course, yes!  That is why I spend the time to assemble this information.  I would encourage any of you who have that desire to weave any of the information I have printed below into your presentations.  I write these analyses for the benefit of our recruitment industry in general and for the members of my distribution list in particular.  So use this info as you deem appropriate.

I also write these monthly BLS analyses to not only counterbalance the negative/incorrect press reporting of our general economic state but, more than that, to remind all of my recruitment readers that, at the level we work, there is no unemployment and so we must recruit to find the candidates our client companies so desperately need!

So, to my recruiter colleagues, get out there and do what your name implies…RECRUIT!  When your client companies have unique and difficult positions to fill, they need you.  When they are being picky, they need you.  When they are longing for more production from fewer employees, they need you.  Go fill those needs.  These should be the halcyon days in the recruitment arena!

Finally, always remember that we are not in an HR business, but in a ‘circumventing the time factor in the hiring sequence’ business—and adding value to our client companies.

 

Current jobs off course, survey says

Daily News, October 18 2013

Most people consider their current job “not on course at all” with their career visions, according to a U.S. poll conducted by Monster.com. 56% of respondents consider their current job “not on course at all” with their career visions, while only 6% of respondents’ current jobs are “totally on course” with their career visions.

“Creating and following your career vision are both difficult and dynamic tasks,” said Mary Ellen Slayter, career advice expert for Monster.com. “Some very lucky people know exactly where they’d like to be later in life; but many of us amend our goals as we learn about our industries and ourselves. Taking a detour from your chosen career path can serve as the catalyst for fulfilling career goals. What’s important is that you turn what could be an ‘off course’ position into an opportunity to expand your area of expertise.”

The poll asked, “How well does your current job meet your long-term course for your career vision? On a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being totally on course and 5 being totally off course.” The responses:

  1. Totally on course: 6%
  2. Very much on course: 5%
  3. Somewhat on course: 14%
  4. Slightly on course: 19%
  5. Not on course at all: 56%

The Monster online survey included more than 1,300 Monster.com users and took place from Aug. 19 to Sept. 2, 2013.

 

Blog:  The “True” Unemployment Rate Is the One BLS Releases Every Month*, But It’s Not the One “True” Measure of Labor Market Slack by Heidi Shierholz

October 10, 2013

“Yesterday we released a new monthly labor market indicator, an estimate of the number of “missing workers” (potential workers who are not working or looking for work because the job market is currently so weak). We also generated another new measure—what the unemployment rate would be if these missing workers were classified by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as actively looking for work. As of the latest data available, August 2013, there were nearly 5,000,000 missing workers. If these workers were actively looking for work, the unemployment rate would be 10.1%, not 7.3%.”

“Many have asked me if I think this augmented unemployment rate is the “true” or “real” unemployment rate, so I thought it’d be useful to clarify: The unemployment rate that BLS puts out is the true unemployment rate, and there are good reasons for the BLS to use the definitions it does. But the official unemployment rate is not currently the best measure of changes in the health of the labor market.”

“In other words, no, I don’t think my new measure is the “true” unemployment rate, but in today’s economy, I do think it’s a better measure than the unemployment rate for gauging trends in job opportunities and the overall health of the labor market.”

“Technically speaking, my measure is the unemployment rate plus the “participation gap” (the participation gap is the cyclical decline in the labor force participation rate, i.e. the decline in participation that is due to the weak labor market, not other trends like retiring baby boomers). In other words, unlike the unemployment rate, this measure accounts for a key component of slack in today’s labor market—the fact that many workers have dropped out of, or never entered, the labor force primarily because job opportunities are so weak. The unemployment rate misses this piece entirely because jobless workers are only counted as unemployed if they are actively seeking work. If policymakers or commentators want the best gauge of trends in the health of today’s labor market and how much productive slack exists in the economy, they should not be looking at the unemployment rate, they should be looking at this (or some other measure uninfected by cyclical changes in participation, like the employment to population ratio of prime-aged workers).”

 

World – Compensation rises for 44% of global execs, survey finds

Daily News, October 11, 2013

Increases in total compensation were reported by 44% of executives, according to the 2013 Executive Compensation Survey released on October 11th by BlueSteps, a service of the Association of Executive Search Consultants. It also found that 16% reported a decrease in total compensation.

Of executives surveyed who reported a rise in total compensation, 41.8% reported an increase of 1%-5%; 26.6% of executives had an increase of 6%- 10%; and 10% reported increases above 20%.

The average C-suite base salary among global executives surveyed decreased 8.8% year-over year to 2013 from 2012, while director level (non-board) middle management salaries increased 4.6% during the same period.

“Revenue expectations, headcount reductions and other challenges have put major strains on this level of executive,” said Peter Felix, president and CEO of AESC. “Boards and top management should be concerned when the executive talent shortage hits harder in the post-recession phase and executive mobility picks up.”

The report found the largest percentage, 26.5%, of director-level global executives and above earn an annual base salary between $151,000 and $200,000; only 2.4% earn an annual base salary above $500,000.

The AESC BlueSteps survey of 778 executives was conducted in September 2013 and included responses from BlueSteps member executives worldwide, including 53% from the Americas; 35% from Europe, the Middle East and Africa; and 12% from Asia/Pacific.

 

US – Survey finds recruiting firms optimistic

Daily News, October 16, 2013

Recruiting firm owners are generally optimistic about the growth potential for the employment markets in the next 6 months and the positive impact on their contingent recruiting businesses, according to a business barometer survey by NPA, The Worldwide Recruiting Network. The Grand Rapids, Mich.-based recruiting network conducts the survey of its global recruiters twice annually.

The survey found 86.6% of recruiting firm owners see conditions improving for their businesses over the next 180 days.

“The reported information was positive on where NPA members are headed and perhaps the contingent recruiting industry as a whole,” said Dave Nerz, president of NPA. “Globally, there are positive signs in some previously depressed global markets.”

Additional findings include:

  • 40% reported improved conditions in the last 180 days, 21% indicated no change, and 39% reported worse conditions.
  • 68% reported employment markets performing at or above expectations in the last 90 days.
  • 49% of respondents see their market getting more competitive.
  • Only 13%of the respondents have a negative outlook for the next 6 months.
  • 24% project fees to be below the levels realized in the prior 6 months.

The most active markets identified by the survey were manufacturing/construction/mining and IT job openings; however, weaker-performing segments were also related to positions in the areas of manufacturing/construction/mining.

NPA has 400 member offices with more than 1,200 individual consultants in 28 countries.

 

The new ADP/Moody’s National Employment Report

Released, October 2, 2013

Private sector employment increased by 166,000 jobs from August to September, according to the September ADP National Employment Report®, which is produced by ADP®, a leading provider of human capital management solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics.  The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.  August’s job gains were revised down slightly to 176,000 from 159,000.

By Company Size

Small businesses: 74,000

1-19 employees 46,000

20-49 employees 28,000

Medium businesses: 28,000

50-499 employees 28,000

Large businesses: 64,000

500-999 employees 5,000

1,000+ employees 59,000

By Sector

Goods producing 19,000

Service providing 147,000

Industry Snapshot

Construction 16,000

Manufacturing 1,000

Trade/transportation/utilities 54,000

Financial activities

Professional/business services 27,000

Goods-producing employment rose by 19,000 jobs in September, a slight increase over its August growth rate.  Construction payrolls added 16,000 jobs, while manufacturing payrolls increased by 1,000.

Service-providing industries added 147,000 jobs in September, down from 152,000 in August.  Among the service industries reported, trade/transportation/utilities added the most jobs with 54,000 over the month.  Professional/business services employment rose by 27,000, while financial activities shed 4,000 jobs.

“During the month of September, the U.S. private sector added a total of 166,000 jobs, said Carlos A. Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP.  “As in previous months, most of the job gains occurred in the service-providing sector.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market appears to have softened in recent months.  Fiscal austerity has begun to take a toll on job creation.  The run-up in interest rates may also be doing some damage to jobs in the financial services industry.  While job growth has slowed, there remains a general resilience in the market.  Job creation continues to be consistent with a slowly declining unemployment rate.”

(The October 2013 ADP National Employment Report will be released at 8:15 a.m. ET on October 30, 2013).

Due to the important contribution that small businesses make to economic growth, employment data that are specific to businesses with 49 or fewer employees is reported monthly in theADP Small Business Report®, a subset of the ADP National Employment Report.

September 2013 Small Business Report Highlights*

Total Small Business Employment:             74,000

●By Size
►1-19 employees

46,000
►20-49 employees

28,000
●By Sector for 1-49 Employees
►Goods Producing

6,000
►Service Producing

69,000
●By Sector for 1-19 Employees
►Goods Producing

3,000
►Service Producing

43,000
●By Sector for 20-49 Employees
►Goods Producing

2,000
►Service Producing

26,000

* Sum of components may not equal total, due to rounding.

Bottom-line:  To my audience of recruiters, always remember this:  Our ‘bread and butter’, especially on the contingency side of the house, has historically been, and continues to be, small and medium-sized client companies.  Along with the large companies, these companies need to be in included in your niche!

 

Job Openings and Structural Unemployment

On September 10th, the BLS reported that there were 3,700,000 job openings on the last business day of July, down by 200,000 from June.  (The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey results for August 2013 are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, October 8th, 2013).  The 3,700,000 reflects published openings comprised of jobs that are advertised either online or in print format.

The hires rate (3.2%) and separations rate (3.0%) also were little changed in July. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by geographic region.

As we recruiters know, that 3,700,000 number only represents 20% of the jobs currently available in the marketplace.  The other 80% of job openings are unpublished and are filled through networking or word of mouth or by using a RECRUITER.   So, those 3,700,000 published job openings now become a total of 18,500,000 published and hidden job orders.

In September there were 11,255,000 unemployed workers.  What was the main reason why those workers were unemployed?  Two Words:  Structural Unemployment.  If we can’t figure out how to educate and/or reeducate those 11,255,000 unemployed, then they will keep reappearing each month as a BLS unemployment statistic—as they have.  In the

meantime, our recruitment marketplace flourishes!

 

Online Labor Demand up 209,700 in September from 86,800 in August

October 2, 2013

  • This month’s rise is the largest monthly increase in 2013
  • September gains are widespread and include large States like California, Texas, and Massachusetts as well as smaller States such as Nebraska and West Virginia

Online advertised vacancies were up 209,700 in September to 5,184,600, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series. The September rise is the first rise of over 200,000 since December 2012. The September Supply/Demand rate stands at 2.3 unemployed for each vacancy with a total of 6.3 million more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies.

 

“The 210,000 gain for September is the first optimistic sign this year that employers are seeking additional workers,” said June Shelp, Vice President of The Conference Board. This brings the gain for Q3 to 68,000/month and follows a Q2 gain of 27,000/month and a Q1 loss of 26,000/month.

 

The National gains resulted from a mixture of gains that outnumbered the losses. The largest September gain was for food service workers, up 45,000, or 20% – a welcome increase since there are still four unemployed in this occupation for every available opening. The number of ads for management positions also rose by 24,700 in part due to greater demand for food service managers. Demand for transportation workers also rose by 20,800 as employers advertised for truck drivers. Occupations with declines in September included legal workers (-6,200) as demand for lawyers and legal support decreased. Office occupations also declined (-5,400) with less employer demand for secretaries and information clerks.

 

The September BLS Analysis

 

The unemployment rate is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a division of the US Department of Labor.  The rate is found by dividing the number of unemployed by the total civilian labor force.  On October 22nd, 2013, the BLS published the most recent unemployment rate for September, 2013 of 7.2% (actually it is 7.235%, down .043% from 7.278% in August, 2013).

The unemployment rate was determined by dividing the unemployed of 11,255,000 (—down from the month before by 61,000—since September, 2012 this number has decreased by 827,000) by the total civilian labor force of 155,559,000 (up by 73,000 from August, 2013).  Since September 2012, our total civilian labor force hasincreased by 503,000 workers.

(The continuing ‘Strange BLS Math’ saga):  The BLS continues to increase the total Civilian Working Population—this time up to 246,168,000.  In one year’s time this population has increased by 2,396,000.  This is an increase of 209,000 from last month’s increase.  The Civilian Working Population has increased each month…

 

Up from August 2013 by

209,000
Up from July 2013 by

203,000
Up from June 2013 by

204,000
Up from May 2013 by

189,000
Up from April 2013 by

188,000
Up from March 2013 by

180,000
Up from February 2013 by

167,000
Up from January 2013 by

165,000
Up from December 2012 by

313,000
Up from November 2012 by

176,000
Up from October 2012 by

191,000
Up from September 2012 by

211,000
Up from August 2012 by

206,000
Up from July 2012 by

212,000
Up from June 2012 by

199,000
Up from May 2012 by

189,000
Up from April 2012 by

182,000
Up from March 2012 by

180,000
Up from February 2012 by

169,000
Up from January 2012 by

335,000
Up from December 2011 by

2,020,000

 

And this month the BLS has increased the Civilian Labor Force to 155,559,000 (up from August by 73,000).

 Subtract the second number (‘civilian labor force’) from the first number (‘civilian working population’) and you get 90,609,000 ‘Not in Labor Force’.  That is a increase of 136,000 ‘Not in Labor Force’ in one month’s time!  Since September, 2012, 1,893,000 US workers have vanished!  Where did those 1,893,000 potential workers disappear to in one year’s time?  I am assuming they still have to eat and pay their rent.  They still need money, don’t they?  The government tells us that these NILFs got discouraged and just gave up looking for a job.  My monthly recurring question is:  “If that is the case, how do they live when they don’t earn any money because they don’t have a job???”

Our Employment Participation Rate—the population 16 years and older working or seeking work—remained at an incredibly low 63.2%.  This is the lowestEmployment Participation Rate recorded since July and August 1978…a year and a half into President Carter’s administration, 35 years ago!  One year ago, our Participation Rate in August was 63.6%.

 Final take on these numbers:  Fewer people looking for work will always bring down the unemployment rate.

 

Anyway, back to the point I am trying to make.  On the surface, these new unemployment rates are scary, but let’s look a little deeper and consider some other numbers.

The unemployment rate includes all types of workers—construction workers, government workers, etc.  We recruiters, on the other hand, mainly place management, professional and related types of workers.  That unemployment rate in September was 3.5% (this rate fell .3% from last month’s 3.8%).  Or, you can look at it another way.  We usually place people who have college degrees.  That unemployment rate in September was 3.7% (this rate rose .2% from last month’s 3.5%).

Now stay with me a little longer.  This gets better.  It’s important to understand (and none of the pundits mention this) that the unemployment rate, for many reasons, will never be 0%, no matter how good the economy is.  Without boring you any more than I have already, let me add here that Milton Friedman (the renowned Nobel Prize-winning economist), is famous for the theory of the “natural rate of unemployment” (or the term he preferred, NAIRU, which is the acronym for Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment).  Basically, this theory states that full employment presupposes an ‘unavoidable and acceptable’ unemployment rate of somewhere between 4-6% with it.  Economists often settle on 5%, although the “New Normal Unemployment Rate” has been suggested to fall at 6.7%.

Nevertheless (if you will allow me to apply a ‘macro’ concept to a ‘micro’ issue), if this rate is applied to our main category of Management, Professional and Related types of potential recruits, and/or our other main category of College-Degreed potential recruits, we are below the 4-6% threshold for full employment…we find no unemployment!  None!  Zilch!

 

THE IMPORTANCE OF GDP

“The economic goal of any nation, as of any individual, is to get the greatest results with the least effort.  The whole economic progress of mankind has consisted in getting more production with the same labor…Translated into national terms, this first principle means that our real objective is to maximize production.  In doing this, full employment—that is, the absence of involuntary idleness—becomes a necessary by-product.  But production is the end, employment merely the means.  We cannot continuously have the fullest production without full employment.  But we can very easily have full employment without full production.”

–Economics in One Lesson, by Henry Hazlitt, Chapter X, “The Fetish of Full Employment”

 

On September 26th, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced the second-quarter, “third and final” estimate, of our real gross domestic product (GDP) — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States.  GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.5% in the second quarter of 2013 (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.1% (revised), down from 1.8% in the second estimate.

The Bureau emphasized that this GDP estimate is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month.  In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 2.5%.  With this third estimate for the second quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains largely the same.

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a negative contribution from federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The acceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected upturns in exports and in nonresidential fixed investment, a smaller decrease in federal government spending, and an upturn in state and local government spending that were partly offset by an acceleration in imports and decelerations in private inventory investment and in PCE.

(The advance estimate for the Third Quarter 2013 will be released on October 30, 2013).

The economy needs to expand at about 3% just to keep the unemployment rate from rising.  Two consecutive quarters of a falling GDP indicate Recession.

 

IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR UNEMPLOYMENT EVER TO BE ZERO

‘Unemployment’ is an emotional ‘trigger’ word…a ‘third rail’, if you will.  It conjures up negative thoughts.  But it is important to realize that, while we want everyone who wants a job to have the opportunity to work, unemployment can never be zero and, in fact, can be disruptive to an economy if it gets too close to zero.  Very low unemployment can actually hurt the economy by creating an upward pressure on wages which invariably leads to higher production costs and prices.  This can lead to inflation.  The lowest the unemployment rate has been in the US was 2.5%.  That was in May and June 1953 when the economy overheated due to the Korean War.  When this bubble burst, it kicked off the Recession of 1953.  A healthy economy will always include some percentage of unemployment.

There are five main sources of unemployment:

  1. Cyclical (or demand-deficient) unemployment – This type of unemployment fluctuates with the business cycle.  It rises during a recession and falls during the subsequent recovery.  Workers who are most affected by this type of unemployment are laid off during a recession when production volumes fall and companies use lay-offs as the easiest way to reduce costs.  These workers are usually rehired, some months later, when the economy improves.
  1. Frictional unemployment – This comes from the normal turnover in the labor force.  This is where new workers are entering the workforce and older workers are retiring and leaving vacancies to be filled by the new workers or those re-entering the workforce.  This category includes workers who are between jobs.
  1. Structural unemployment – This happens when the skills possessed by the unemployed worker don’t match the requirements of the opening—whether those be in characteristics and skills or in location.  This can come from new technology or foreign competition (e.g., foreign outsourcing).  This type of unemployment usually lasts longer than frictional unemployment because retraining, and sometimes relocation, is involved.  Occasionally jobs in this category can just disappear overseas.
  1. Seasonal unemployment – This happens when the workforce is affected by the climate or time of year.  Construction workers and agricultural workers aren’t needed as much during the winter season because of the inclement weather.  On the other hand, retail workers experience an increase in hiring shortly before, and during, the holiday season, but can be laid off shortly thereafter.
  1. Surplus unemployment – This is caused by minimum wage laws and unions.  When wages are set at a higher level, unemployment can often result.  Why?  To keep within the same payroll budget, the company must let go of some workers to pay the remaining workers a higher salary.

Other factors influencing the unemployment rate:

  1. Length of unemployment – Some studies indicate that an important factor influencing a workers decision to accept a new job is directly related to the length of the unemployment benefit they are receiving.  Just recently the government re-extended the eligibility for unemployment benefits from 26 weeks to as much as 73 weeks.  Studies suggest that this reduces the incentive of the unemployed to seek and accept less desirable jobs.
  1. Changes in GDP – Since hiring workers takes time, the improvement in the unemployment rate usually lags behind the improvement in the GDP.

 

WHERE RECRUITERS PLACE

Now back to the issue at hand, namely the recruiting, and placing, of professionals and those with college degrees.

If you take a look at the past few years of unemployment in the September “management, professional and related” types of worker category, you will find the following rates:

September 2012                      3.9%

September 2011                      4.4%

September 2010                      4.4%

September 2009                      5.2%

September 2008                      2.8%

September 2007                      2.1%

September 2006                      2.1%

September 2005                      2.3%

September 2004                      2.5%

September 2003                      3.2%

September 2002                      3.3%

Here are the rates, during those same time periods, for “college-degreed” workers:

September 2012                      4.1%

September 2011                      4.2%

September 2010                      4.5%

September 2009                      4.8%

September 2008                      2.6%

September 2007                      2.0%

September 2006                      2.0%

September 2005                      2.3%

September 2004                      2.6%

September 2003                      3.2%

September 2002                      2.9%

So, while September’s 2013 rates for these two categories, 3.5% and 3.7%, respectively, are trending positively, when looking at the big picture, it’s not anything to be very happy about either—especially when we see how well we had it during the 2002-2008 time frame.  But regardless, these unemployment numbers usually include a good number of job hoppers, job shoppers and rejects.  We, on the other hand, are engaged by our client companies to find those candidates who are happy, well-appreciated, making good money and currently working and we entice them to move for even better opportunities—especially where new technologies are expanding.  This will never change.  And that is why, no matter the unemployment rate, we still need to market to find the best job orders and we still need to recruit to find the best candidates.

Below are the numbers for the over 25 year olds:

 

Less that H.S. diploma – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08

2/08

3/08

4/08

5/08

6/08

7/08

8/08

9/08

10/08

11/08

12/08

7.7%

7.4%

8.2%

7.9%

8.4%

8.9%

8.6%

9.7%

9.8%

10.4%

10.6%

10.9%

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

12.0%

12.6%

13.3%

14.8%

15.5%

15.5%

15.4%

15.6%

15.0%

15.5%

15.0%

15.3%

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

15.2%

15.6%

14.5%

14.7%

15.0%

14.1%

13.8%

14.0%

15.4%

15.3%

15.7%

15.3%

1/11

2/11

3/11

4/11

5/11

6/11

7/11

8/11

9/11

10/11

11/11

12/11

14.2%

13.9%

13.7%

14.6%

14.7%

14.3%

15.0%

14.3%

14.0%

13.8%

13.2%

13.8%

 

1/12

2/12

3/12

4/12

5/12

6/12

7/12

8/12

9/12

10/12

11/12

12/12

13.1%

12.9%

12.6%

12.5%

13.0%

12.6%

12.7%

12.0%

11.3%

12.2%

12.2%

11.7%

 

1/13

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13

10/13

11/13

12/13

12.0%

11.2%

11.1%

11.6%

11.1%

10.7%

11.0%

11.3%

10.3%

 

H.S. Grad; no college – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08

2/08

3/08

4/08

5/08

6/08

7/08

8/08

9/08

10/08

11/08

12/08

4.6%

4.7%

5.1%

5.0%

5.2%

5.2%

5.3%

5.8%

6.3%

6.5%

6.9%

7.7%

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

8.1%

8.3%

9.0%

9.3%

10.0%

9.8%

9.4%

9.7%

10.8%

11.2%

10.4%

10.5%

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

10.1%

10.5%

10.8%

10.6%

10.9%

10.8%

10.1%

10.3%

10.0%

10.1%

10.0%

9.8%

1/11

2/11

3/11

4/11

5/11

6/11

7/11

8/11

9/11

10/11

11/11

12/11

9.4%

9.5%

9.5%

9.7%

9.5%

10.0%

9.3%

9.6%

9.7%

9.6%

8.8%

8.7%

1/12

2/12

3/12

4/12

5/12

6/12

7/12

8/12

9/12

10/12

11/12

12/12

8.4%

8.3%

8.0%

7.9%

8.1%

8.4%

8.7%

8.8%

8.7%

8.4%

8.1%

8.0%

1/13

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13

10/13

11/13

12/13

8.1%

7.9%

7.6%

7.4%

7.4%

7.6%

7.6%

7.6%

7.6%

 

Some College; or AA/AS – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08

2/08

3/08

4/08

5/08

6/08

7/08

8/08

9/08

10/08

11/08

12/08

3.7%

3.8%

3.9%

4.0%

4.3%

4.4%

4.6%

5.0%

5.1%

5.3%

5.5%

5.6%

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

6.2%

7.0%

7.2%

7.4%

7.7%

8.0%

7.9%

8.2%

8.5%

9.0%

9.0%

9.0%

 

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

8.5%

8.0%

8.2%

8.3%

8.3%

8.2%

8.3%

8.7%

9.1%

8.5%

8.7%

8.1%

1/11

2/11

3/11

4/11

5/11

6/11

7/11

8/11

9/11

10/11

11/11

12/11

8.0%

7.8%

7.4%

7.5%

8.0%

8.4%

8.3%

8.2%

8.4%

8.3%

7.6%

7.7%

 

1/12

2/12

3/12

4/12

5/12

6/12

7/12

8/12

9/12

10/12

11/12

12/12

7.2%

7.3%

7.5%

7.6%

7.9%

7.5%

7.1%

6.6%

6.5%

6.9%

6.6%

6.9%

 

1/13

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13

10/13

11/13

12/13

7.0%

6.7%

6.4%

6.4%

6.5%

6.4%

6.0%

6.1%

6.0%

 

BS/BS + – Unemployment Rate

 

 

1/08

2/08

3/08

4/08

5/08

6/08

7/08

8/08

9/08

10/08

11/08

12/08

2.1%

2.1%

2.1%

2.1%

2.3%

2.4%

2.5%

2.7%

2.6%

3.1%

3.2%

3.7%

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

3.8%

4.1%

4.3%

4.4%

4.8%

4.7%

4.7%

4.7%

4.9%

4.7%

4.9%

5.0%

 

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

4.9%

5.0%

4.9%

4.9%

4.7%

4.4%

4.5%

4.6%

4.4%

4.7%

5.1%

4.8%

 

1/11

2/11

3/11

4/11

5/11

6/11

7/11

8/11

9/11

10/11

11/11

12/11

4.2%

4.3%

4.4%

4.5%

4.5%

4.4%

4.3%

4.3%

4.2%

4.4%

4.4%

4.1%

 

1/12

2/12

3/12

4/12

5/12

6/12

7/12

8/12

9/12

10/12

11/12

12/12

4.2%

4.2%

4.2%

4.0%

3.9%

4.1%

4.1%

4.1%

4.1%

3.8%

3.8%

3.9%

 

1/13

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13

10/13

11/13

12/13

3.7%

3.8%

3.8%

3.9%

3.8%

3.9%

3.8%

3.5%

3.7%

 

Management, Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08

2/08

3/08

4/08

5/08

6/08

7/08

8/08

9/08

10/08

11/08

12/08

2.2%

2.2%

2.1%

2.0%

2.6%

2.7%

2.9%

3.3%

2.8%

3.0%

3.2%

3.3%

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

4.1%

3.9%

4.2%

4.0%

4.6%

5.0%

5.5%

5.4%

5.2%

4.7%

4.6%

4.6%

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

5.0%

4.8%

4.7%

4.5%

4.5%

4.9%

5.0%

5.1%

4.4%

4.5%

4.7%

4.6%

1/11

2/11

3/11

4/11

5/11

6/11

7/11

8/11

9/11

10/11

11/11

12/11

4.7%

4.4%

4.3%

4.0%

4.4%

4.7%

5.0%

4.9%

4.4%

4.4%

4.2%

4.2%

1/12

2/12

3/12

4/12

5/12

6/12

7/12

8/12

9/12

10/12

11/12

12/12

4.3%

4.2%

4.2%

3.7%

4.0%

4.4%

4.8%

4.5%

3.9%

3.8%

3.6%

3.9%

 

1/13

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13

10/13

11/13

12/13

3.9%

3.8%

3.6%

3.5%

3.5%

4.2%

4.1%

3.8%

3.5%

 

Or employed…(,000)

 

1/08

2/08

3/08

4/08

5/08

6/08

7/08

8/08

9/08

10/08

11/08

12/08

52,165

52,498

52,681

52,819

52,544

52,735

52,655

52,626

53,104

53,485

53,274

52,548

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

52,358

52,196

52,345

52,597

52,256

51,776

51,810

51,724

52,186

52,981

52,263

52,131

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

52,159

52,324

52,163

52,355

51,839

51,414

50,974

50,879

51,757

51,818

52,263

51,704

1/11

2/11

3/11

4/11

5/11

6/11

7/11

8/11

9/11

10/11

11/11

12/11

51,866

52,557

53,243

53,216

52,778

52,120

51,662

51,997

52,665

52,864

52,787

52,808

1/12

2/12

3/12

4/12

5/12

6/12

7/12

8/12

9/12

10/12

11/12

12/12

53,152

53,208

53,771

54,055

54,156

53,846

53,165

53,696

54,655

55,223

54,951

54,635

 

1/13

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13

10/13

11/13

12/13

54,214

54,563

54,721

54,767

54,740

54,323

54,064

54,515

55,013

 

And unemployed…(,000)

 

1/08

2/08

3/08

4/08

5/08

6/08

7/08

8/08

9/08

10/08

11/08

12/08

1,164

1,159

1,121

1,088

1,407

1,478

1,585

1,779

1,539

1,647

1,786

1,802

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

2,238

2,137

2,292

2,164

2,373

2,720

3,034

2,925

2,859

2,593

2,530

2,509

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

2,762

2,637

2,600

2,464

2,450

2,644

2,687

2,762

2,381

2,417

2,525

2,468

1/11

2/11

3/11

4/11

5/11

6/11

7/11

8/11

9/11

10/11

11/11

12/11

2,557

2,435

2,381

2,196

2,419

2,598

2,742

2,671

2,450

2,410

2,336

2,303

1/12

2/12

3/12

4/12

5/12

6/12

7/12

8/12

9/12

10/12

11/12

12/12

2,410

2,336

2,330

2,062

2,275

2,472

2,666

2,556

2,245

2,170

2,077

2,221

 

1/13

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13

10/13

11/13

12/13

2,211

2,164

2,020

1,980

1,990

2,358

2,286

2,130

1,978

 

For a total Management, Professional & Related workforce of…(,000)

 

1/08

2/08

3/08

4/08

5/08

6/08

7/08

8/08

9/08

10/08

11/08

12/08

53,329

53,657

53,802

53,907

53,951

54,213

54,240

54,405

54,643

55,132

55,060

54,350

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

54,596

54,333

54,637

54,761

54,629

54,496

54,844

54,649

55,045

55,574

54,793

54,640

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

54,921

54,961

54,763

54,819

54,289

54,058

53,661

53,641

54,138

54,235

54,788

54,172

1/11

2/11

3/11

4/11

5/11

6/11

7/11

8/11

9/11

10/11

11/11

12/11

54,423

54,992

55,624

55,412

55,197

54,718

54,404

54,668

55,115

55,274

55,123

55,111

1/12

2/12

3/12

4/12

5/12

6/12

7/12

8/12

9/12

10/12

11/12

12/12

55,562

55,544

56,101

56,117

56,431

56,318

55,831

56,252

56,900

57,393

57,028

56,856

 

1/13

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13

10/13

11/13

12/13

56,425

56,727

56,741

56,747

56,730

56,681

56,350

56,645

56,991

 

Management, Business and Financial Operations – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08

2/08

3/08

4/08

5/08

6/08

7/08

8/08

9/08

10/08

11/08

12/08

2.3%

2.3%

2.2%

2.1%

2.7%

2.5%

2.6%

2.8%

2.8%

3.0%

3.6%

3.9%

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

4.6%

4.5%

4.5%

4.4%

4.6%

4.8%

4.9%

5.0%

5.2%

5.4%

5.4%

5.2%

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

5.2%

5.1%

5.4%

5.1%

4.9%

4.8%

4.7%

4.9%

4.3%

5.0%

5.5%

5.7%

1/11

2/11

3/11

4/11

5/11

6/11

7/11

8/11

9/11

10/11

11/11

12/11

5.3%

4.9%

4.8%

4.6%

4.9%

4.6%

4.6%

4.6%

4.6%

4.7%

4.6%

4.4%

1/12

2/12

3/12

4/12

5/12

6/12

7/12

8/12

9/12

10/12

11/12

12/12

4.5%

4.4%

4.4%

4.0%

4.1%

3.8%

3.8%

3.7%

3.5%

3.6%

3.8%

4.1%

 

1/13

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13

10/13

11/13

12/13

4.0%

3.9%

3.5%

3.5%

3.8%

3.5%

3.1%

3.4%

3.3%

 

Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08

2/08

3/08

4/08

5/08

6/08

7/08

8/08

9/08

10/08

11/08

12/08

2.1%

2.1%

2.0%

2.0%

2.5%

2.9%

3.2%

3.6%

2.8%

3.0%

3.0%

2.9%

 

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

4.9%

4.6%

4.3%

4.1%

4.3%

5.0%

5.2%

5.3%

4.4%

4.1%

4.1%

3.8%

1/11

2/11

3/11

4/11

5/11

6/11

7/11

8/11

9/11

10/11

11/11

12/11

4.3%

4.1%

3.9%

3.5%

4.0%

4.9%

5.3%

5.1%

4.4%

4.1%

4.0%

4.0%

1/12

2/12

3/12

4/12

5/12

6/12

7/12

8/12

9/12

10/12

11/12

12/12

4.2%

4.1%

4.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.8%

5.5%

5.2%

4.3%

3.9%

3.5%

3.8%

 

1/13

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13

10/13

11/13

12/13

3.8%

3.8%

3.6%

3.4%

3.3%

4.6%

4.7%

4.0%

3.6%

 

Sales & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08

2/08

3/08

4/08

5/08

6/08

7/08

8/08

9/08

10/08

11/08

12/08

5.2%

5.2%

4.8%

4.3%

5.1%

5.6%

6.2%

6.3%

5.7%

6.1%

6.5%

7.0%

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

7.7%

8.4%

8.9%

8.6%

8.9%

9.1%

8.3%

8.7%

8.9%

9.5%

9.1%

8.9%

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

10.1%

10.2%

9.7%

9.2%

9.6%

9.4%

10.1%

9.0%

9.4%

9.1%

8.8%

8.3%

1/11

2/11

3/11

4/11

5/11

6/11

7/11

8/11

9/11

10/11

11/11

12/11

9.3%

9.0%

8.5%

8.5%

9.4%

9.7%

9.4%

8.6%

9.4%

8.2%

7.8%

7.7%

1/12

2/12

3/12

4/12

5/12

6/12

7/12

8/12

9/12

10/12

11/12

12/12

8.2%

7.9%

8.1%

7.6%

7.9%

8.4%

8.3%

8.6%

7.9%

7.0%

7.3%

7.0%

1/13

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13

10/13

11/13

12/13

8.5%

8.2%

7.7%

6.9%

7.1%

6.7%

6.9%

7.2%

7.5%