Bob Marshall’s February 2017 BLS Analysis for Recruiters; 3/10/17
February BLS Preface
TBMG Coaching Updates and News
Bob Marshall – Coaching & Speaking Updates:
Mike Gionta’s 2017 Recruiting Virtual Summit, March 22nd, 2017
I have been asked by Mike to present again, and so I will at Mike Gionta’s (free) 8th Annual Recruiting Firm Owner Telesummit, which will run from Tuesday, March 21 through Friday, March 24. My presentation will be on Wednesday, March 22nd, 3:30pm, Eastern Time.
The title of my presentation will be: “The Foundation of Recruitment: ‘Your Desk as a Manufacturing Plant’—introducing the new technique of ‘The Marketing Waterfall’”
You can register now at: https://ysh91858.isrefer.com/go/rfos17/bmars
There’s no travel, no time away from the office and Mike is giving access to all the sessions FREE. Space is limited.
Top Echelon, Tuesday Recruiter Coaching Series, Webinar, April 11th, 2017
My next Top Echelon webinar will be on Tuesday afternoon, April 11th, 2017, at 1pm, Eastern Time. This Recruiter Coaching Series is for TE members.
The exact title and description of this presentation, which will focus on how to establish Marketing Value, will be announced in the next couple of weeks.
California Staffing Professionals (CSP) Annual Conference, Kona Kai Club, San Diego, California, May 4-5, 2017
I will be presenting to the CSP Annual Conference on Thursday, May 4th, 2017 and Friday, May 5th, 2017 in San Diego, CA. I will conduct a Recruiter Retreat all day on Thursday—from 9:00am to 4:00pm. On Friday, I will conduct a 90 minute breakout session entitled, “Establishing Elegant Rapport through Elegant Communication.”
* Special San Diego Note: For those of you in the San Diego area, if you are interested in my in-office training (individual and desk-level) and are available for that training during April 24-May 3, please let me know for a special offer. Since I will be in San Diego for my CSP presentations, I will offer a discount on my usual fees plus NO charge for my airfare or other expenses. First come, first served, so contact me for specific details as soon as possible. Thanks!
National Association of Personnel Consultants (NAPS), 2017 Annual Conference, Denver, Colorado, September 20-22, 2017
I have been invited by NAPS to present again, and so I will at the NAPS Annual Conference in Denver Colorado, September 20-22, 2017.
My presentation will be on Friday, September 22nd, 11am to 12:15pm. The title of my presentation will be: “Make Placements by Overcoming Objections with Contract Staffing.”
Taking the first step…
Over 36 years ago I began a career that turned out to be the most dynamic and rewarding professional move I have ever made. With the opportunity to earn an unlimited income at my fingertips, I began my career as a Recruiter.
Soon I became a student of the business and transitioned into Coaching. I traveled extensively and learned and listened and I packaged my material in a unique way. I studied many of the top producers in the recruiting industry and developed a series of training tools based on their proven success—training techniques that work time and time again.
I developed these tools and coaching techniques to help others achieve their goals as top producing professional recruiters. I continue to base all of my coaching and training tools on the same “nuts and bolts” approach I used as a recruiter.
I realize that taking that first step to engage a Coach to help you reach a higher level of production is not as easy as it sounds. After all, your training investment – and your time – are important and deserve every consideration. I share your feelings. I believe that how you approach your recruitment career matters…that you should get what you pay for, and then some…that you should enjoy your time with your Coach as you are benefiting from it…and that you should never settle for the ordinary.
If you are ready to take the first step, you can read descriptions of my coaching plans, and all of my products, on my website @ www.themarshallplan.org. Then, call me directly at 770-898-5550 or email me @ bob@themarshallplan.org.
“Bob Marshall is a speaker’s speaker and a trainer’s trainer. He has a gift for taking the cornerstones of the business and compelling people and teams to not only hone their skills but to execute. We’ve had Bob engage our teams a number of times over the last few years and our groups always come away more focused on the core and more energized to perform. Come ready to learn because this man knows the business and will make you better!”
—David Alexander, President, Adecco & Soliant, January, 2017
Preface
Many of you continue to correspond with me about these monthly BLS analyses and have asked if it is OK to use them in your presentations. The answer is, of course, yes! That is why I spend the time to assemble this information. I would encourage any of you who have that desire to weave any of the information I have printed below into your presentations. I write these analyses for the benefit of our recruitment industry in general and for the members of my distribution list in particular. So use this info as you deem appropriate.
I also write these monthly BLS analyses to not only counterbalance the negative/incorrect press reporting of our general economic state but, more than that, to remind all of my recruitment readers that, at the level we work, there is no unemployment and so we must recruit to find the candidates our client companies so desperately need!
So, to my recruiter colleagues, get out there and do what your name implies…RECRUIT! When your client companies have unique and difficult positions to fill, they need you. When they are being picky, they need you. When they are longing for more production from fewer employees, they need you. Go fill those needs. These should be the halcyon days in the recruitment arena!
Finally, always remember that we are not in an HR business, but in a ‘circumventing the time factor in the hiring sequence’ business—and adding value to our client companies.
Trump’s First Economic Report Card: A Strong 235,000 Jobs Added in February
NBC, Lucy Bayly, March 10, 2017
The first full jobs report of the Trump administration came in like a lion: America added 235,000 new jobs to the economy in February, beating analyst expectations that had pegged the monthly figure at 190,000, and paving the way for a Fed rate hike.
Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics also showed that the unemployment rate ticked down from 4.8% to 4.7%, indicating that slightly fewer Americans are out looking for work.
Wage growth, a key indicator that disappointed in January but had a strong showing in December, at 2.9% — the biggest uptick in 7 years — also improved for February, hitting 2.8% year on year. Higher wages indicate a tighter labor market, with employers forced to offer better pay to attract workers.
The strong jobs data represents the last piece of the puzzle for the Federal Reserve and essentially seals the deal for an interest rate hike next week at its two-day monetary policy meeting on March 14-15.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen said last week that the current labor market already meets the Fed’s goal and that policymakers judge it will be “appropriate to gradually increase the federal funds rate if the economic data continue to come in about as we expect.”
Trump’s economic report card is the first grading of his bold agenda for job creation. The President has promised to create 25,000,000 new jobs over the next decade, based on campaign promises of tax cuts, deregulation, and an increase in spending on infrastructure.
US Jobless Claims Fall to 44-year Low
Daily News, March 2, 2017
The fewest Americans in almost 44 years filed applications to collect unemployment benefits last week, indicating the job market continues to power forward, Bloomberg reports. Jobless claims fell by 19,000 to 223,000 in the week ended Feb. 25, the fewest since March 1973, the Labor Department reported today. The decline was below the lowest projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists, which called for a median forecast of 245,000 applications.
5 Recruiting Trends for Millennials in 2017
Strategic Sourceror, February 10, 2017
In an effort to deliver continuous insights on various employment trends, the MRINetwork released the results of its recent research on millennial talent management titled, 2017 Millennial Hiring Trends Study. The MRINetwork conducted a survey of over 200 recruiters in over 600 office locations, along with 181 millennial professionals to get an inside look at millennial talent trends.
From the results of this survey, we highlighted the top 5 trends:
- Most companies reported not concentrating on Millennials when recruiting, even considering succession planning as this younger generation will need to fulfill the C-Suite roles that will soon be abandoned by the Baby Boomer population.
- Advancement and mentorship in the company were lower priorities compared to compensation, which was the first priority for Millennials.
- 40% of Millennials admitted to being influenced more by market reputation compared to online presence, which is what 54% of recruiters believed was a stronger priority for this technology-driven generation.
- A career pathing process has been credited as the most effective for retaining Millennials. This approach gives Millennials a layout for advancing into new roles within the company, a perspective they appreciate compared to previous generations.
- 71% of recruiters claim it’s not apparent if the market is compelled by candidates, but 53% of the Millennials surveyed felt employers had the advantage.
CIO and CTO Top List of Highest Tech Salaries in 2017
Daily News, February 9, 2017
Chief information officers and chief technical officers top this year’s list of highest-paid technology professionals, according to a report by Mondo, a provider of technology and marketing staffing, according to the annual technology salary guide released by Mondo, a New York-based IT and digital marketing staffing provider.
CIO and CTO salaries range from $170,000 to $285,000 this year, according to the report. Beyond the CIO and CTO positions, the technology jobs with the highest salaries in 2017 include:
*Demandware developer: $150,000 to $250,000
*Chief information security officer: $145,000 to $250,000
*DevOps lead/engineer: $115,000 to $250,000
*Chief data officer: $162,000 to $228,000
*Director PMO: $125,000 to $225,000
*Data scientist: $130,000 to $210,000
*Data architect: $130,000 to $210,000
*Application security engineer: $125,000 to 210,000
*Solutions architect: $140,000 to $200,000
*Project manager: $90,000 to $200,000
“Salaries for IT professionals continue to increase with more than 12 different positions earning more than $200,000 a year,” said Gianna Scorsone, senior VP of marketing and sales operations for Mondo. “This year we have seen a spike in salaries for Demandware Developers and DevOps Engineers with salaries of up to $250,000. Tech professionals with data analysis, security, and software developer expertise are in especially high demand.”
The technology salary data is based on Mondo’s placements over the past year in New York City, San Francisco, Washington DC, Philadelphia, Denver, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, Atlanta, and Dallas.
Data Scientist Tops CareerCast List of In-Demand Jobs
Daily News, February 3, 2017
Data scientist is the toughest job to fill this year, according to new CareerCast report on in-demand jobs for 2017.
The challenge Hiring Managers face for many of the most in-demand professions is finding applicants with the necessary skills, according to the report. Because data scientist is a relatively new career, there isn’t an established workforce of trained professionals. Many universities do not offer data science degree programs, which means workers enter the field from other disciplines.
“The concept of not having enough candidates might have felt foreign at the height of the recession, when unemployment lingered around 10%,” said Kyle Kensing, CareerCast’s online content editor. “However, improvements in the job market have resulted in a different issue for some industries: Labor shortages.”
CareerCast’s most in-demand jobs for 2017, with annual median salary and projected hiring growth by 2024, are:
- Data scientist: $128,240; 16%
- Financial advisor: $89,160; 30%
- General and operations manager: $97,730; 7%
- Home health aide: $21,920; 38%
- Information security analyst: $90,120; 18%
- Medical services manager: $94,500; 17%
- Physical therapist: $84,020; 34%
- Registered nurse: $67,490; 16%
- Software engineer: $100,690; 17%
- Truck driver: $40,260; 5%
The report utilizes Bureau of Labor Statistics data on growth outlook, as well as industry and profession hiring trends over the last decade; trade statistics; university graduate employment data; and the CareerCast.com database of listings to determine the factors driving hiring needs.
The new ADP/Moody’s National Employment Report: Over 76% of all new job growth in February, 2017 came from Small and Mid-size Companies!
March 8, 2017
Private sector employment increased by 298,000 jobs from January to February, (a 37,000 job increase from January’s ‘revised’ 261,000) according to the February ADP National Employment Report®.
This report is produced by ADP® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The matched sample used to develop the ADP National Employment Report® was derived from ADP payroll data, which represents 411,000 U.S. clients employing nearly 24,000,000 workers in the U.S. The January total of jobs added was revised up from 246,000 to 261,000.
By Company Size
Small businesses: 104,000
1-19 employees 51,000
20-49 employees 53,000
Medium businesses: 122,000
50-499 employees 122,000
Large businesses: 72,000
500-999 employees 28,000
1,000+ employees 43,000
By Sector
- Goods-producing 106,000
- Natural resources/mining 8,000
- Construction 66,000
- Manufacturing 32,000
- Service-providing 193,000
- Trade/transportation/utilities 9,000
- Information 25,000
- Financial activities 4,000
- Professional/business services 66,000
- Professional/technical services 42,000
- Management of companies/enterprises 7,000
- Administrative/support services 17,000
- Education/health services 40,000
- Health care/social assistance 38,000
- Education 2,000
- Leisure/hospitality 40,000
- Other services 9,000
Franchise Employment
Franchise Jobs 17,100
“February proved to be an incredibly strong month for employment with increases we have not seen in years,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Gains were driven by a surge in the goods sector, while we also saw the information industry experience a notable increase.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “February was a very good month for workers. Powering job growth were the construction, mining and manufacturing industries. Unseasonably mild winter weather undoubtedly played a role. But near record high job openings and record low layoffs underpin the entire job market.”
(The March 2017 ADP National Employment Report will be released at 8:15 a.m. ET on April 5, 2017.)
Due to the important contribution that small businesses make to economic growth, employment data that is specific to businesses with 49 or fewer employees is reported each month in the ADP Small Business Report®, a subset of the ADP National Employment Report.
February 2017 Small Business Report Highlights
Total Small Business Employment: 104,000 (+42,000 increase)
| ●By Size | |
| ►1-19 employees | 51,000 |
| ►20-49 employees | 53,000 |
| ●By Sector for 1-49 Employees | |
| ►Goods Producing | 39,000 |
| ►Service Producing | 65,000 |
| ●By Sector for 1-19 Employees | |
| ►Goods Producing | 21,000 |
| ►Service Producing | 30,000 |
| ●By Sector for 20-49 Employees | |
| ►Goods Producing | 18,000 |
| ►Service Producing | 35,000 |
Bottom-line: To my audience of recruiters, always remember this: Our ‘bread and butter’, especially on the contingency side of the house, has historically been, and continues to be, small and medium-sized client companies. Along with the large companies, these companies need to be in included in your niche!
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary – December 2016
On February 7th, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the number of job openings was little changed at 5,500,000 on the last business day of December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were also little changed at 5,300,000 and 5,000,000, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.0% and the layoffs and discharges rate was also unchanged at 1.1%. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by 4 geographic regions.
Job Openings
On the last business day of December, there were 5,500,000 job openings, little changed from November. The job openings rate was 3.6% in December. The number of job openings was little changed for total private and decreased for government (-75,000). Job openings increased in other services (+50,000) and federal government (+13,000) but decreased in state and local government, excluding education (-85,000). The number of job openings was little changed in all 4 regions.
Hires
The number of hires was essentially unchanged at 5,300,000 in December. The hires rate was 3.6%. The number of hires was little changed for total private and decreased for government (-38,000). Hires decreased in state and local government, excluding education (-33,000), and in mining and logging (-7,000). The number of hires was little changed in all 4 regions.
Separations
Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.
There were 5,000,000 total separations in December, little changed from November. The total separations rate in December was 3.4%. The number of total separations was little changed for total private and decreased for government (-37,000). Total separations decreased in state and local government education (-28,000). The number of total separations was little changed in all 4 regions.
The number of quits was little changed in December at 3,000,000. The quits rate was 2.0% . Over the month, the number of quits was little changed for total private and for government. Quits decreased in state and local government education (-14,000). The number of quits was little changed in all 4 regions.
There were 1,600,000 layoffs and discharges in December, essentially unchanged from November. The layoffs and discharges rate was 1.1% in December. The number of layoffs and discharges was little changed for total private and decreased for government (-27,000). The layoffs and discharges level increased in construction (+75,000) but decreased in health care and social assistance (-46,000), state and local government, excluding education (-15,000), and state and local government education (-12,000). Layoffs and discharges were little changed in all 4 regions.
In December, the number of other separations was little changed for total nonfarm, total private, and government as well as in all industries and all 4 regions.
Net Change in Employment
Large numbers of hires and separations occur every month throughout the business cycle. Net employment change results from the relationship between hires and separations. When the number of hires exceeds the number of separations, employment rises, even if the hires level is steady or declining. Conversely, when the number of hires is less than the number of separations, employment declines, even if the hires level is steady or rising. Over the 12 months ending in December, hires totaled 62,500,000 and separations totaled 60,100,000, yielding a net employment gain of 2,400,000. These totals include workers who may have been hired and separated more than once during the year.
____________
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey results for January 2017 are scheduled to be released on Thursday, March 16, 2017 at 10:00 a.m. (EDT).
As we recruiters know, that 5,500,000 number only represents 20% of the jobs currently available in the marketplace. The other 80% of job openings are unpublished and are filled through networking or word of mouth or by using a RECRUITER. So, those 5,500,000 published job openings now become a total of 27,500,000 published AND hidden job orders.
In February there were 7,528,000 unemployed workers. What was the main reason why those workers were unemployed? Two Words: Structural Unemployment. If we can’t figure out how to educate and/or reeducate those 7,528,000 unemployed, then they will keep reappearing each month as a BLS unemployment statistic—as they have. In the meantime, our recruitment marketplace flourishes!
Online Job Ads Decreased 360,200 in February
March 8, 2017
*In February, the number of online job ads dropped in all States
*11% of all online job ads are for mathematical and computer occupations
*Note: February data incorporates the HWOL annual revision
Online advertised vacancies decreased 360,200 to 4,537,600 in February, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series. The January Supply/Demand rate stands at 1.56 unemployed for each advertised vacancy, with a total of 2,700,000 more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies. The number of unemployed was approximately 7,600,000 in January.
The Professional occupational category saw losses in Healthcare Practitioners (-48.6), Computer/Math (-28.3) and Management (-24.7). The Services/Production occupational category saw losses in Office/Admin (-43.8), Transportation (-41.7), and Sales (-22.5).
OCCUPATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS
*In February, all of the largest 10 online occupational categories posted decreases.
Occupational Changes for the Month of February:
Computer and mathematical science ads decreased 28,300 to 507,800. The supply/demand rate lies at 0.25, i.e. 4 advertised openings per unemployed job-seeker.
Healthcare practitioners and technical ads decreased 48,600 to 584,100. The supply/demand rate lies at 0.14, i.e. over 7 advertised opening per unemployed job-seeker.
Management ads decreased 24,700 to 386,300. The supply/demand rate lies at 0.88, more than 1 advertised opening per unemployed job-seeker.
Sales and related ads decreased 22,500 to 451,700. The supply/demand rate for these occupations lies at 1.78, more than 1 unemployed job-seeker for every advertised available opening.
Office and administrative support ads decreased 43,800 to 481,600. The supply/demand rate lies at 1.60, i.e. over 1 unemployed job-seeker for every advertised available opening.
Transportation ads decreased 41,700 to 307,800. The supply/demand rate lies at 1.74, i.e. over 1 unemployed job-seeker for every advertised available opening.
HWOL 2017 Annual Revision
With the February 2017 press release, the HWOL program has incorporated its annual revision, which helps ensure the accuracy and consistency of the HWOL time series. This year’s annual revision includes updates to the job board coverage, a revision of the historical data from May 2005 forward, an update of the Metropolitan Statistical area definitions to 2015 Office of Management and Budget (OMB) county-based MSA definitions, and the annual update of the seasonal adjustment factors.
Special Note
Recently, the HWOL Data Series has experienced a declining trend in the number of online job ads that may not reflect broader trends in the U.S. labor market. Based on changes in how job postings appear online, The Conference Board is reviewing its HWOL methodology to ensure accuracy and alignment with market trends.
(The March 2017 Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series will be released at 10:00 AM ET on Wednesday, April 5, 2017).
U-6 Update
In February, 2017 the regular unemployment number fell one-tenth to 4.7%, and the broader U-6 measure fell to 9.2%, two-tenths less than twice as high as the regular unemployment figure.
The above 9.2% is referred to as the U-6 unemployment rate (found in the monthly BLS Employment Situation Summary, Table A-15; Table A-12 in 2008 and before). It counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts “marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons.” Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week. And the “marginally attached workers” include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work. The age considered for this calculation is 16 year and over.
Here is a look at the February U-6 numbers for the past 14 years:
February 2016 9.7%
February 2015 11.0%
February 2014 12.6%
February 2013 14.3%
February 2012 15.0%
February 2011 15.9%
February 2010 16.8%
February 2009 15.0%
February 2008 9.0%
February 2007 8.1%
February 2006 8.4%
February 2005 9.3%
February 2004 9.7%
February 2003 10.1%
The February BLS Analysis
The unemployment rate is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a division of the US Department of Labor. The rate is found by dividing the number of unemployed by the total civilian labor force. On March 10th, 2017, the BLS published the most recent unemployment rate for February 2017 of 4.7% (actually it is 4.703%, down by .077 from 4.780% in January, 2017.
The unemployment rate was determined by dividing the unemployed of 7,528,000 (–down from the month before by 107,000—since February, 2016 this number has decreased by 317,000) by the total civilian labor force of 160,056,000 (up by 340,000 from January, 2017). Since February 2016, our total civilian labor force has increased by 1,168,000 workers.
(The continuing ‘Strange BLS Math’ saga—after a one month detour when the BLS (for the first time in years) DECREASED the total Civilian Noninstitutional Population, the BLS increased this total to 254,246,000. This is an increase of 164,000 from last month’s DECREASE of 660,000. In one year’s time, this population has increased by 1,669,000. The Civilian Noninstitutional Population has increased each month—except last month—by…)
| Up from January 2017 | by | 164,000 |
| Down from December 2016 | by | 660,000 |
| Up from November 2016 | by | 202,000 |
| Up from October 2016 | by | 219,000 |
| Up from September 2016 | by | 230,000 |
| Up from August 2016 | by | 237,000 |
| Up from July 2016 | by | 234,000 |
| Up from June 2016 | by | 223,000 |
| Up from May 2016 | by | 223,000 |
| Up from April 2016 | by | 205,000 |
| Up from March 2016 | by | 201,000 |
| Up from February 2016 | by | 191,000 |
| Up from January 2016 | by | 180,000 |
| Up from December 2015 | by | 461,000 |
| Up from November 2015 | by | 189,000 |
| Up from October 2015 | by | 206,000 |
| Up from September 2015 | by | 216,000 |
| Up from August 2015 | by | 229,000 |
| Up from July 2015 | by | 220,000 |
| Up from June 2015 | by | 213,000 |
| Up from May 2015 | by | 208,000 |
| Up from April 2015 | by | 189,000 |
| Up from March 2015 | by | 186,000 |
| Up from February 2015 | by | 191,000 |
| Up from January 2015 | by | 176,000 |
| Up from December 2014 | by | 696,000 |
| Up from November 2014 | by | 143,000 |
| Up from October 2014 | by | 187,000 |
| Up from September 2014 | by | 211,000 |
| Up from August 2014 | by | 217,000 |
| Up from July 2014 | by | 206,000 |
| Up from June 2014 | by | 209,000 |
| Up from May 2014 | by | 192,000 |
| Up from April 2014 | by | 183,000 |
| Up from March 2014 | by | 181,000 |
| Up from February 2014 | by | 173,000 |
| Up from January 2014 | by | 170,000 |
| Up from December 2013 | by | 170,000 |
| Up from November 2013 | by | 178,000 |
| Up from October 2013 | by | 186,000 |
| Up from September 2013 | by | 213,000 |
| Up from August 2013 | by | 209,000 |
| Up from July 2013 | by | 203,000 |
| Up from June 2013 | by | 204,000 |
| Up from May 2013 | by | 189,000 |
| Up from April 2013 | by | 188,000 |
| Up from March 2013 | by | 180,000 |
| Up from February 2013 | by | 167,000 |
| Up from January 2013 | by | 165,000 |
| Up from December 2012 | by | 313,000 |
| Up from November 2012 | by | 176,000 |
| Up from October 2012 | by | 191,000 |
| Up from September 2012 | by | 211,000 |
| Up from August 2012 | by | 206,000 |
| Up from July 2012 | by | 212,000 |
| Up from June 2012 | by | 199,000 |
| Up from May 2012 | by | 189,000 |
| Up from April 2012 | by | 182,000 |
| Up from March 2012 | by | 180,000 |
| Up from February 2012 | by | 169,000 |
| Up from January 2012 | by | 335,000 |
| Up from December 2011 | by | 2,020,000 |
And this month the BLS has increased the Civilian Labor Force to 160,056,000 (up from January by 340,000).
Subtract the second number (‘civilian labor force’) from the first number (‘civilian noninstitutional population’) and you get 94,190,000 ‘Not in Labor Force’—down by 176,000 from last month’s 94,366,000. The government tells us that most of these NILFs got discouraged and just gave up looking for a job. My monthly recurring question is: “If that is the case, how do they survive when they don’t earn any money because they don’t have a job? Are they ALL relying on the government to support them??”
This month our Employment Participation Rate—the population 16 years and older working or seeking work—rose .1% to 63.0%. This is the first time we have risen to 63.0% since last March and before that in March of 2014 and most of 2013. We may be starting a trend toward the 66%’s we saw in 2007 before we started our downward spiral in 2008.
Final take on these numbers: Fewer people looking for work will always bring down the unemployment rate.
Anyway, back to the point I am trying to make. On the surface, these new unemployment rates are scary, but let’s look a little deeper and consider some other numbers.
The unemployment rate includes all types of workers—construction workers, government workers, etc. We recruiters, on the other hand, mainly place management, professional and related types of workers. That unemployment rate in February was 2.1% (this rate was .2% below last month’s 2.3%). Or, you can look at it another way. We usually place people who have college degrees. That unemployment rate in February was 2.4% (this rate was .1% below last month’s 2.5%).
Now stay with me a little longer. This gets better. It’s important to understand (and none of the pundits mention this) that the unemployment rate, for many reasons, will never be 0%, no matter how good the economy is. Without boring you any more than I have already, let me add here that Milton Friedman (the renowned Nobel Prize-winning economist), is famous for the theory of the “natural rate of unemployment” (or the term he preferred, NAIRU, which is the acronym for Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment). Basically, this theory states that full employment presupposes an ‘unavoidable and acceptable’ unemployment rate of somewhere between 4-6% with it. Economists often settle on 5%, although the “New Normal Unemployment Rate” has been suggested to fall at 6.7%.
Nevertheless (if you will allow me to apply a ‘macro’ concept to a ‘micro’ issue), if this rate is applied to our main category of Management, Professional and Related types of potential recruits, and/or our other main category of College-Degreed potential recruits, we are well below the 4-6% threshold for full employment…we find no unemployment! None! Zilch! A Big Goose Egg!
THE IMPORTANCE OF GDP
“The economic goal of any nation, as of any individual, is to get the greatest results with the least effort. The whole economic progress of mankind has consisted in getting more production with the same labor…Translated into national terms, this first principle means that our real objective is to maximize production. In doing this, full employment—that is, the absence of involuntary idleness—becomes a necessary by-product. But production is the end, employment merely the means. We cannot continuously have the fullest production without full employment. But we can very easily have full employment without full production.”
—Economics in One Lesson, by Henry Hazlitt, Chapter X, “The Fetish of Full Employment”
On February 28th, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced the real gross domestic product (GDP) — the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes — increased at an annual rate of 1.9% in the fourth quarter of 2016 according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.5%.
This GDP estimate is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 1.9%. With the 2nd estimate for the fourth quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; the increase in personal consumption expenditures was larger and increases in state and local government spending and in nonresidential fixed investment were smaller than previously estimated.
The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. These increases were partly offset by negative contributions from exports and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a downturn in exports, an acceleration in imports, and a downturn in federal government spending that were partly offset by an upturn in residential fixed investment, an acceleration in private inventory investment, and an upturn in state and local government spending. Updates to GDP The percent change in real GDP was the same as previously estimated. An upward revision to PCE was offset by downward revisions to state and local government spending and to nonresidential fixed investment. 2016 GDP Real GDP increased 1.6% in 2016 (that is, from the 2015 annual level to the 2016 annual level), compared with an increase of 2.6% in 2015. Revisions to 2016 real GDP from the advance estimate did not affect the 1.6% rate of increase. The increase in real GDP in 2016 reflected positive contributions from PCE, residential fixed investment, state and local government spending, exports, and federal government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The deceleration in real GDP from 2015 to 2016 reflected downturns in private inventory investment and in nonresidential fixed investment and decelerations in PCE, in residential fixed investment and in state and local government spending that were partly offset by a deceleration in imports and accelerations in federal government spending and in exports. Three Update Releases to GDP BEA releases 3 vintages of the current quarterly estimate for GDP: “Advance” estimates are released near the end of the first month following the end of the quarter and are based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency; “second” and “third” estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively, and are based on more detailed and more comprehensive data as they become available. Annual and comprehensive updates are typically released in late July. Annual updates generally cover at least the 3 most recent calendar years (and their associated quarters) and incorporate newly available major annual source data as well as some changes in methods and definitions to improve the accounts. Comprehensive (or benchmark) updates are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as major conceptual improvements.
(The Fourth Quarter and Annual 2016 “Third Estimate”, based on more complete data, will be released on March 30th, 2017)
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR UNEMPLOYMENT EVER TO BE ZERO
‘Unemployment’ is an emotional ‘trigger’ word…a ‘third rail’, if you will. It conjures up negative thoughts. But it is important to realize that, while we want everyone who wants a job to have the opportunity to work, unemployment can never be zero and, in fact, can be disruptive to an economy if it gets too close to zero. Very low unemployment can actually hurt the economy by creating an upward pressure on wages which invariably leads to higher production costs and prices. This can lead to inflation. The lowest the unemployment rate has been in the US was 2.5%. That was in May and June 1953 when the economy overheated due to the Korean War. When this bubble burst, it kicked off the Recession of 1953. A healthy economy will always include some percentage of unemployment.
There are five main sources of unemployment:
- Cyclical (or demand-deficient) unemployment – This type of unemployment fluctuates with the business cycle. It rises during a recession and falls during the subsequent recovery. Workers who are most affected by this type of unemployment are laid off during a recession when production volumes fall and companies use lay-offs as the easiest way to reduce costs. These workers are usually rehired, some months later, when the economy improves.
- Frictional unemployment – This comes from the normal turnover in the labor force. This is where new workers are entering the workforce and older workers are retiring and leaving vacancies to be filled by the new workers or those re-entering the workforce. This category includes workers who are between jobs.
- Structural unemployment – This happens when the skills possessed by the unemployed worker don’t match the requirements of the opening—whether those be in characteristics and skills or in location. This can come from new technology or foreign competition (e.g., foreign outsourcing). This type of unemployment usually lasts longer than frictional unemployment because retraining, and sometimes relocation, is involved. Occasionally jobs in this category can just disappear overseas.
- Seasonal unemployment – This happens when the workforce is affected by the climate or time of year. Construction workers and agricultural workers aren’t needed as much during the winter season because of the inclement weather. On the other hand, retail workers experience an increase in hiring shortly before, and during, the holiday season, but can be laid off shortly thereafter.
- Surplus unemployment – This is caused by minimum wage laws and unions. When wages are set at a higher level, unemployment can often result. Why? To keep within the same payroll budget, the company must let go of some workers to pay the remaining workers a higher salary.
Other factors influencing the unemployment rate:
- Length of unemployment – Some studies indicate that an important factor influencing a workers decision to accept a new job is directly related to the length of the unemployment benefit they are receiving. Currently, in 2015, workers in most states are eligible for up to 26 weeks of benefits from the regular state-funded unemployment compensation program, although eight states provide fewer weeks and two provide more. No additional weeks of federal benefits are available in any state: the temporary Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC) program expired at the end of 2013, and no state currently qualifies to offer more weeks under the permanent Extended Benefits (EB) program. Studies suggest that additional weeks of benefits reduce the incentive of the unemployed to seek and accept less desirable jobs.
- Changes in GDP – Since hiring workers takes time, the improvement in the unemployment rate usually lags behind the improvement in the GDP.
WHERE RECRUITERS PLACE
Now back to the issue at hand, namely the recruiting, and placing, of professionals and those with college degrees.
If you take a look at the past few years of unemployment in the February “management, professional and related” types of worker category, you will find the following rates:
February 2016 2.4%
February 2015 2.7%
February 2014 3.2%
February 2013 3.8%
February 2012 4.2%
February 2011 4.4%
February 2010 4.8%
February 2009 3.9%
February 2008 2.2%
February 2007 1.9%
February 2006 2.1%
February 2005 2.5%
February 2004 2.7%
February 2003 3.1%
February 2002 2.8%
Here are the rates, during those same time periods, for “college-degreed” workers:
February 2016 2.5%
February 2015 2.7%
February 2014 3.4%
February 2013 3.9%
February 2012 4.2%
February 2011 4.3%
February 2010 4.9%
February 2009 4.2%
February 2008 2.1%
February 2007 1.9%
February 2006 2.2%
February 2005 2.4%
February 2004 2.9%
February 2003 3.0%
February 2002 2.8%
The February 2017 rates for these two categories, 2.1% and 2.4%, respectively, are low again this month and are still close to the halcyon numbers we attained in the 2006 to 2008 time frames. But regardless, these unemployment numbers usually include a good number of job hoppers, job shoppers and rejects. We, on the other hand, are engaged by our client companies to find those candidates who are happy, well-appreciated, making good money and currently working and we entice them to move for even better opportunities—especially where new technologies are expanding. This will never change. And that is why, no matter the unemployment rate, we still need to market to find the best possible job orders and we still need to recruit to find the best possible candidates.
Below are the numbers for the over 25 year olds:
Less than H.S. diploma – Unemployment Rate
| 1/08 | 2/08 | 3/08 | 4/08 | 5/08 | 6/08 | 7/08 | 8/08 | 9/08 | 10/08 | 11/08 | 12/08 |
| 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 10.9% |
| 1/09 | 2/09 | 3/09 | 4/09 | 5/09 | 6/09 | 7/09 | 8/09 | 9/09 | 10/09 | 11/09 | 12/09 |
| 12.0% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 14.8% | 15.5% | 15.5% | 15.4% | 15.6% | 15.0% | 15.5% | 15.0% | 15.3% |
| 1/10 | 2/10 | 3/10 | 4/10 | 5/10 | 6/10 | 7/10 | 8/10 | 9/10 | 10/10 | 11/10 | 12/10 |
| 15.2% | 15.6% | 14.5% | 14.7% | 15.0% | 14.1% | 13.8% | 14.0% | 15.4% | 15.3% | 15.7% | 15.3% |
| 1/11 | 2/11 | 3/11 | 4/11 | 5/11 | 6/11 | 7/11 | 8/11 | 9/11 | 10/11 | 11/11 | 12/11 |
| 14.2% | 13.9% | 13.7% | 14.6% | 14.7% | 14.3% | 15.0% | 14.3% | 14.0% | 13.8% | 13.2% | 13.8% |
| 1/12 | 2/12 | 3/12 | 4/12 | 5/12 | 6/12 | 7/12 | 8/12 | 9/12 | 10/12 | 11/12 | 12/12 |
| 13.1% | 12.9% | 12.6% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 11.7% |
| 1/13 | 2/13 | 3/13 | 4/13 | 5/13 | 6/13 | 7/13 | 8/13 | 9/13 | 10/13 | 11/13 | 12/13 |
| 12.0% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 9.8% |
| 1/14 | 2/14 | 3/14 | 4/14 | 5/14 | 6/14 | 7/14 | 8/14 | 9/14 | 10/14 | 11/14 | 12/14 |
| 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.8% |
| 1/15 | 2/15 | 3/15 | 4/15 | 5/15 | 6/15 | 7/15 | 8/15 | 9/15 | 10/15 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% |
| 1/16 | 2/16 | 3/16 | 4/16 | 5/16 | 6/16 | 7/16 | 8/16 | 9/16 | 10/16 | 11/16 | 12/16 |
| 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.9% |
| 1/17 | 2/17 | 3/17 | 4/17 | 5/17 | 6/17 | 7/17 | 8/17 | 9/17 | 10/17 | 11/17 | 12/17 |
| 7.7% | 7.9% |
H.S. Grad; no college – Unemployment Rate
| 1/08 | 2/08 | 3/08 | 4/08 | 5/08 | 6/08 | 7/08 | 8/08 | 9/08 | 10/08 | 11/08 | 12/08 |
| 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% |
| 1/09 | 2/09 | 3/09 | 4/09 | 5/09 | 6/09 | 7/09 | 8/09 | 9/09 | 10/09 | 11/09 | 12/09 |
| 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 10.5% |
| 1/10 | 2/10 | 3/10 | 4/10 | 5/10 | 6/10 | 7/10 | 8/10 | 9/10 | 10/10 | 11/10 | 12/10 |
| 10.1% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.8% |
| 1/11 | 2/11 | 3/11 | 4/11 | 5/11 | 6/11 | 7/11 | 8/11 | 9/11 | 10/11 | 11/11 | 12/11 |
| 9.4% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.7% |
| 1/12 | 2/12 | 3/12 | 4/12 | 5/12 | 6/12 | 7/12 | 8/12 | 9/12 | 10/12 | 11/12 | 12/12 |
| 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.0% |
| 1/13 | 2/13 | 3/13 | 4/13 | 5/13 | 6/13 | 7/13 | 8/13 | 9/13 | 10/13 | 11/13 | 12/13 |
| 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% |
| 1/14 | 2/14 | 3/14 | 4/14 | 5/14 | 6/14 | 7/14 | 8/14 | 9/14 | 10/14 | 11/14 | 12/14 |
| 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% |
| 1/15 | 2/15 | 3/15 | 4/15 | 5/15 | 6/15 | 7/15 | 8/15 | 9/15 | 10/15 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% |
| 1/16 | 2/16 | 3/16 | 4/16 | 5/16 | 6/16 | 7/16 | 8/16 | 9/16 | 10/16 | 11/16 | 12/16 |
| 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% |
| 1/17 | 2/17 | 3/17 | 4/17 | 5/17 | 6/17 | 7/17 | 8/17 | 9/17 | 10/17 | 11/17 | 12/17 |
| 5.3% | 5.0% |
Some College; or AA/AS – Unemployment Rate
| 1/08 | 2/08 | 3/08 | 4/08 | 5/08 | 6/08 | 7/08 | 8/08 | 9/08 | 10/08 | 11/08 | 12/08 |
| 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% |
| 1/09 | 2/09 | 3/09 | 4/09 | 5/09 | 6/09 | 7/09 | 8/09 | 9/09 | 10/09 | 11/09 | 12/09 |
| 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% |
| 1/10 | 2/10 | 3/10 | 4/10 | 5/10 | 6/10 | 7/10 | 8/10 | 9/10 | 10/10 | 11/10 | 12/10 |
| 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.1% |
| 1/11 | 2/11 | 3/11 | 4/11 | 5/11 | 6/11 | 7/11 | 8/11 | 9/11 | 10/11 | 11/11 | 12/11 |
| 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% |
| 1/12 | 2/12 | 3/12 | 4/12 | 5/12 | 6/12 | 7/12 | 8/12 | 9/12 | 10/12 | 11/12 | 12/12 |
| 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% |
| 1/13 | 2/13 | 3/13 | 4/13 | 5/13 | 6/13 | 7/13 | 8/13 | 9/13 | 10/13 | 11/13 | 12/13 |
| 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% |
| 1/14 | 2/14 | 3/14 | 4/14 | 5/14 | 6/14 | 7/14 | 8/14 | 9/14 | 10/14 | 11/14 | 12/14 |
| 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% |
| 1/15 | 2/15 | 3/15 | 4/15 | 5/15 | 6/15 | 7/15 | 8/15 | 9/15 | 10/15 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.1% |
| 1/16 | 2/16 | 3/16 | 4/16 | 5/16 | 6/16 | 7/16 | 8/16 | 9/16 | 10/16 | 11/16 | 12/16 |
| 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% |
| 1/17 | 2/17 | 3/17 | 4/17 | 5/17 | 6/17 | 7/17 | 8/17 | 9/17 | 10/17 | 11/17 | 12/17 |
| 3.8% | 4.0% |
BS/BS + – Unemployment Rate
| 1/08 | 2/08 | 3/08 | 4/08 | 5/08 | 6/08 | 7/08 | 8/08 | 9/08 | 10/08 | 11/08 | 12/08 |
| 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% |
| 1/09 | 2/09 | 3/09 | 4/09 | 5/09 | 6/09 | 7/09 | 8/09 | 9/09 | 10/09 | 11/09 | 12/09 |
| 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% |
| 1/10 | 2/10 | 3/10 | 4/10 | 5/10 | 6/10 | 7/10 | 8/10 | 9/10 | 10/10 | 11/10 | 12/10 |
| 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% |
| 1/11 | 2/11 | 3/11 | 4/11 | 5/11 | 6/11 | 7/11 | 8/11 | 9/11 | 10/11 | 11/11 | 12/11 |
| 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.1% |
| 1/12 | 2/12 | 3/12 | 4/12 | 5/12 | 6/12 | 7/12 | 8/12 | 9/12 | 10/12 | 11/12 | 12/12 |
| 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% |
| 1/13 | 2/13 | 3/13 | 4/13 | 5/13 | 6/13 | 7/13 | 8/13 | 9/13 | 10/13 | 11/13 | 12/13 |
| 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.3% |
| 1/14 | 2/14 | 3/14 | 4/14 | 5/14 | 6/14 | 7/14 | 8/14 | 9/14 | 10/14 | 11/14 | 12/14 |
| 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% |
| 1/15 | 2/15 | 3/15 | 4/15 | 5/15 | 6/15 | 7/15 | 8/15 | 9/15 | 10/15 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| 1/16 | 2/16 | 3/16 | 4/16 | 5/16 | 6/16 | 7/16 | 8/16 | 9/16 | 10/16 | 11/16 | 12/16 |
| 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.5% |
| 1/17 | 2/17 | 3/17 | 4/17 | 5/17 | 6/17 | 7/17 | 8/17 | 9/17 | 10/17 | 11/17 | 12/17 |
| 2.5% | 2.4% |
Management, Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate
| 1/08 | 2/08 | 3/08 | 4/08 | 5/08 | 6/08 | 7/08 | 8/08 | 9/08 | 10/08 | 11/08 | 12/08 |
| 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% |
| 1/09 | 2/09 | 3/09 | 4/09 | 5/09 | 6/09 | 7/09 | 8/09 | 9/09 | 10/09 | 11/09 | 12/09 |
| 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.6% |
| 1/10 | 2/10 | 3/10 | 4/10 | 5/10 | 6/10 | 7/10 | 8/10 | 9/10 | 10/10 | 11/10 | 12/10 |
| 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% |
| 1/11 | 2/11 | 3/11 | 4/11 | 5/11 | 6/11 | 7/11 | 8/11 | 9/11 | 10/11 | 11/11 | 12/11 |
| 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| 1/12 | 2/12 | 3/12 | 4/12 | 5/12 | 6/12 | 7/12 | 8/12 | 9/12 | 10/12 | 11/12 | 12/12 |
| 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% |
| 1/13 | 2/13 | 3/13 | 4/13 | 5/13 | 6/13 | 7/13 | 8/13 | 9/13 | 10/13 | 11/13 | 12/13 |
| 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% |
| 1/14 | 2/14 | 3/14 | 4/14 | 5/14 | 6/14 | 7/14 | 8/14 | 9/14 | 10/14 | 11/14 | 12/14 |
| 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% |
| 1/15 | 2/15 | 3/15 | 4/15 | 5/15 | 6/15 | 7/15 | 8/15 | 9/15 | 10/15 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% |
| 1/16 | 2/16 | 3/16 | 4/16 | 5/16 | 6/16 | 7/16 | 8/16 | 9/16 | 10/16 | 11/16 | 12/16 |
| 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.2% |
| 1/17 | 2/17 | 3/17 | 4/17 | 5/17 | 6/17 | 7/17 | 8/17 | 9/17 | 10/17 | 11/17 | 12/17 |
| 2.3% | 2.1% |
Or employed…(,000)
| 1/08 | 2/08 | 3/08 | 4/08 | 5/08 | 6/08 | 7/08 | 8/08 | 9/08 | 10/08 | 11/08 | 12/08 |
| 52,165 | 52,498 | 52,681 | 52,819 | 52,544 | 52,735 | 52,655 | 52,626 | 53,104 | 53,485 | 53,274 | 52,548 |
| 1/09 | 2/09 | 3/09 | 4/09 | 5/09 | 6/09 | 7/09 | 8/09 | 9/09 | 10/09 | 11/09 | 12/09 |
| 52,358 | 52,196 | 52,345 | 52,597 | 52,256 | 51,776 | 51,810 | 51,724 | 52,186 | 52,981 | 52,263 | 52,131 |
| 1/10 | 2/10 | 3/10 | 4/10 | 5/10 | 6/10 | 7/10 | 8/10 | 9/10 | 10/10 | 11/10 | 12/10 |
| 52,159 | 52,324 | 52,163 | 52,355 | 51,839 | 51,414 | 50,974 | 50,879 | 51,757 | 51,818 | 52,263 | 51,704 |
| 1/11 | 2/11 | 3/11 | 4/11 | 5/11 | 6/11 | 7/11 | 8/11 | 9/11 | 10/11 | 11/11 | 12/11 |
| 51,866 | 52,557 | 53,243 | 53,216 | 52,778 | 52,120 | 51,662 | 51,997 | 52,665 | 52,864 | 52,787 | 52,808 |
| 1/12 | 2/12 | 3/12 | 4/12 | 5/12 | 6/12 | 7/12 | 8/12 | 9/12 | 10/12 | 11/12 | 12/12 |
| 53,152 | 53,208 | 53,771 | 54,055 | 54,156 | 53,846 | 53,165 | 53,696 | 54,655 | 55,223 | 54,951 | 54,635 |
| 1/13 | 2/13 | 3/13 | 4/13 | 5/13 | 6/13 | 7/13 | 8/13 | 9/13 | 10/13 | 11/13 | 12/13 |
| 54,214 | 54,563 | 54,721 | 54,767 | 54,740 | 54,323 | 54,064 | 54,515 | 55,013 | 55,155 | 55,583 | 54,880 |
| 1/14 | 2/14 | 3/14 | 4/14 | 5/14 | 6/14 | 7/14 | 8/14 | 9/14 | 10/14 | 11/14 | 12/14 |
| 55,096 | 55,501 | 56,036 | 55,896 | 56,202 | 55,714 | 55,381 | 55,646 | 56,365 | 56,759 | 57,110 | 56,888 |
| 1/15 | 2/15 | 3/15 | 4/15 | 5/15 | 6/15 | 7/15 | 8/15 | 9/15 | 10/15 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| 57,367 | 57,596 | 57,805 | 57,953 | 58,155 | 57,710 | 57,392 | 57,288 | 58,105 | 58,456 | 58,667 | 59,030 |
| 1/16 | 2/16 | 3/16 | 4/16 | 5/16 | 6/16 | 7/16 | 8/16 | 9/16 | 10/16 | 11/16 | 12/16 |
| 59,014 | 59,583 | 60,080 | 59,690 | 59,613 | 59,181 | 58,434 | 58,526 | 59,599 | 59,766 | 59,707 | 60,069 |
| 1/17 | 2/17 | 3/17 | 4/17 | 5/17 | 6/17 | 7/17 | 8/17 | 9/17 | 10/17 | 11/17 | 12/17 |
| 59,921 | 61,064 |
And unemployed…(,000)
| 1/08 | 2/08 | 3/08 | 4/08 | 5/08 | 6/08 | 7/08 | 8/08 | 9/08 | 10/08 | 11/08 | 12/08 |
| 1,164 | 1,159 | 1,121 | 1,088 | 1,407 | 1,478 | 1,585 | 1,779 | 1,539 | 1,647 | 1,786 | 1,802 |
| 1/09 | 2/09 | 3/09 | 4/09 | 5/09 | 6/09 | 7/09 | 8/09 | 9/09 | 10/09 | 11/09 | 12/09 |
| 2,238 | 2,137 | 2,292 | 2,164 | 2,373 | 2,720 | 3,034 | 2,925 | 2,859 | 2,593 | 2,530 | 2,509 |
| 1/10 | 2/10 | 3/10 | 4/10 | 5/10 | 6/10 | 7/10 | 8/10 | 9/10 | 10/10 | 11/10 | 12/10 |
| 2,762 | 2,637 | 2,600 | 2,464 | 2,450 | 2,644 | 2,687 | 2,762 | 2,381 | 2,417 | 2,525 | 2,468 |
| 1/11 | 2/11 | 3/11 | 4/11 | 5/11 | 6/11 | 7/11 | 8/11 | 9/11 | 10/11 | 11/11 | 12/11 |
| 2,557 | 2,435 | 2,381 | 2,196 | 2,419 | 2,598 | 2,742 | 2,671 | 2,450 | 2,410 | 2,336 | 2,303 |
| 1/12 | 2/12 | 3/12 | 4/12 | 5/12 | 6/12 | 7/12 | 8/12 | 9/12 | 10/12 | 11/12 | 12/12 |
| 2,410 | 2,336 | 2,330 | 2,062 | 2,275 | 2,472 | 2,666 | 2,556 | 2,245 | 2,170 | 2,077 | 2,221 |
| 1/13 | 2/13 | 3/13 | 4/13 | 5/13 | 6/13 | 7/13 | 8/13 | 9/13 | 10/13 | 11/13 | 12/13 |
| 2,211 | 2,164 | 2,020 | 1,980 | 1,990 | 2,358 | 2,286 | 2,130 | 1,978 | 1,930 | 1,749 | 1,637 |
| 1/14 | 2/14 | 3/14 | 4/14 | 5/14 | 6/14 | 7/14 | 8/14 | 9/14 | 10/14 | 11/14 | 12/14 |
| 1,784 | 1,845 | 1,890 | 1,642 | 1,795 | 2,001 | 2,011 | 1,930 | 1,617 | 1,582 | 1,656 | 1,568 |
| 1/15 | 2/15 | 3/15 | 4/15 | 5/15 | 6/15 | 7/15 | 8/15 | 9/15 | 10/15 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| 1,741 | 1,601 | 1,398 | 1,435 | 1,460 | 1,714 | 1,807 | 1,686 | 1,414 | 1,312 | 1,276 | 1,208 |
| 1/16 | 2/16 | 3/16 | 4/16 | 5/16 | 6/16 | 7/16 | 8/16 | 9/16 | 10/16 | 11/16 | 12/16 |
| 1,404 | 1,456 | 1,477 | 1,251 | 1,305 | 1,712 | 1,782 | 1,869 | 1,652 | 1,506 | 1,382 | 1,361 |
| 1/17 | 2/17 | 3/17 | 4/17 | 5/17 | 6/17 | 7/17 | 8/17 | 9/17 | 10/17 | 11/17 | 12/17 |
| 1,425 | 1,313 |
For a total Management, Professional & Related workforce of…(,000)
| 1/08 | 2/08 | 3/08 | 4/08 | 5/08 | 6/08 | 7/08 | 8/08 | 9/08 | 10/08 | 11/08 | 12/08 |
| 53,329 | 53,657 | 53,802 | 53,907 | 53,951 | 54,213 | 54,240 | 54,405 | 54,643 | 55,132 | 55,060 | 54,350 |
| 1/09 | 2/09 | 3/09 | 4/09 | 5/09 | 6/09 | 7/09 | 8/09 | 9/09 | 10/09 | 11/09 | 12/09 |
| 54,596 | 54,333 | 54,637 | 54,761 | 54,629 | 54,496 | 54,844 | 54,649 | 55,045 | 55,574 | 54,793 | 54,640 |
| 1/10 | 2/10 | 3/10 | 4/10 | 5/10 | 6/10 | 7/10 | 8/10 | 9/10 | 10/10 | 11/10 | 12/10 |
| 54,921 | 54,961 | 54,763 | 54,819 | 54,289 | 54,058 | 53,661 | 53,641 | 54,138 | 54,235 | 54,788 | 54,172 |
| 1/11 | 2/11 | 3/11 | 4/11 | 5/11 | 6/11 | 7/11 | 8/11 | 9/11 | 10/11 | 11/11 | 12/11 |
| 54,423 | 54,992 | 55,624 | 55,412 | 55,197 | 54,718 | 54,404 | 54,668 | 55,115 | 55,274 | 55,123 | 55,111 |
| 1/12 | 2/12 | 3/12 | 4/12 | 5/12 | 6/12 | 7/12 | 8/12 | 9/12 | 10/12 | 11/12 | 12/12 |
| 55,562 | 55,544 | 56,101 | 56,117 | 56,431 | 56,318 | 55,831 | 56,252 | 56,900 | 57,393 | 57,028 | 56,856 |
| 1/13 | 2/13 | 3/13 | 4/13 | 5/13 | 6/13 | 7/13 | 8/13 | 9/13 | 10/13 | 11/13 | 12/13 |
| 56,425 | 56,727 | 56,741 | 56,747 | 56,730 | 56,681 | 56,350 | 56,645 | 56,991 | 57,085 | 57,332 | 56,517 |
| 1/14 | 2/14 | 3/14 | 4/14 | 5/14 | 6/14 | 7/14 | 8/14 | 9/14 | 10/14 | 11/14 | 12/14 |
| 56,880 | 57,346 | 57,926 | 57,538 | 57,997 | 57,715 | 57,392 | 57,576 | 57,982 | 58,341 | 58,766 | 58,456 |
| 1/15 | 2/15 | 3/15 | 4/15 | 5/15 | 6/15 | 7/15 | 8/15 | 9/15 | 10/15 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| 59,108 | 59,197 | 59,203 | 59,388 | 59,615 | 59,424 | 59,199 | 58,974 | 59,519 | 59,768 | 59,943 | 60,238 |
| 1/16 | 2/16 | 3/16 | 4/16 | 5/16 | 6/16 | 7/16 | 8/16 | 9/16 | 10/16 | 11/16 | 12/16 |
| 60,418 | 61,039 | 61,557 | 60,941 | 60,918 | 60,893 | 60,216 | 60,395 | 61,251 | 61,272 | 61,089 | 61,430 |
| 1/17 | 2/17 | 3/17 | 4/17 | 5/17 | 6/17 | 7/17 | 8/17 | 9/17 | 10/17 | 11/17 | 12/17 |
| 61,346 | 62,377 |
Management, Business and Financial Operations – Unemployment Rate
| 1/08 | 2/08 | 3/08 | 4/08 | 5/08 | 6/08 | 7/08 | 8/08 | 9/08 | 10/08 | 11/08 | 12/08 |
| 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% |
| 1/09 | 2/09 | 3/09 | 4/09 | 5/09 | 6/09 | 7/09 | 8/09 | 9/09 | 10/09 | 11/09 | 12/09 |
| 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% |
| 1/10 | 2/10 | 3/10 | 4/10 | 5/10 | 6/10 | 7/10 | 8/10 | 9/10 | 10/10 | 11/10 | 12/10 |
| 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% |
| 1/11 | 2/11 | 3/11 | 4/11 | 5/11 | 6/11 | 7/11 | 8/11 | 9/11 | 10/11 | 11/11 | 12/11 |
| 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% |
| 1/12 | 2/12 | 3/12 | 4/12 | 5/12 | 6/12 | 7/12 | 8/12 | 9/12 | 10/12 | 11/12 | 12/12 |
| 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% |
| 1/13 | 2/13 | 3/13 | 4/13 | 5/13 | 6/13 | 7/13 | 8/13 | 9/13 | 10/13 | 11/13 | 12/13 |
| 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% |
| 1/14 | 2/14 | 3/14 | 4/14 | 5/14 | 6/14 | 7/14 | 8/14 | 9/14 | 10/14 | 11/14 | 12/14 |
| 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% |
| 1/15 | 2/15 | 3/15 | 4/15 | 5/15 | 6/15 | 7/15 | 8/15 | 9/15 | 10/15 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% |
| 1/16 | 2/16 | 3/16 | 4/16 | 5/16 | 6/16 | 7/16 | 8/16 | 9/16 | 10/16 | 11/16 | 12/16 |
| 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% |
| 1/17 | 2/17 | 3/17 | 4/17 | 5/17 | 6/17 | 7/17 | 8/17 | 9/17 | 10/17 | 11/17 | 12/17 |
| 2.5% | 2.4% |
Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate
| 1/08 | 2/08 | 3/08 | 4/08 | 5/08 | 6/08 | 7/08 | 8/08 | 9/08 | 10/08 | 11/08 | 12/08 |
| 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% |
| 1/10 | 2/10 | 3/10 | 4/10 | 5/10 | 6/10 | 7/10 | 8/10 | 9/10 | 10/10 | 11/10 | 12/10 |
| 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.8% |
| 1/11 | 2/11 | 3/11 | 4/11 | 5/11 | 6/11 | 7/11 | 8/11 | 9/11 | 10/11 | 11/11 | 12/11 |
| 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| 1/12 | 2/12 | 3/12 | 4/12 | 5/12 | 6/12 | 7/12 | 8/12 | 9/12 | 10/12 | 11/12 | 12/12 |
| 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% |
| 1/13 | 2/13 | 3/13 | 4/13 | 5/13 | 6/13 | 7/13 | 8/13 | 9/13 | 10/13 | 11/13 | 12/13 |
| 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.7% |
| 1/14 | 2/14 | 3/14 | 4/14 | 5/14 | 6/14 | 7/14 | 8/14 | 9/14 | 10/14 | 11/14 | 12/14 |
| 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| 1/15 | 2/15 | 3/15 | 4/15 | 5/15 | 6/15 | 7/15 | 8/15 | 9/15 | 10/15 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% |
| 1/16 | 2/16 | 3/16 | 4/16 | 5/16 | 6/16 | 7/16 | 8/16 | 9/16 | 10/16 | 11/16 | 12/16 |
| 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% |
| 1/17 | 2/17 | 3/17 | 4/17 | 5/17 | 6/17 | 7/17 | 8/17 | 9/17 | 10/17 | 11/17 | 12/17 |
| 2.2% | 1.9% |
Sales & Related – Unemployment Rate
| 1/08 | 2/08 | 3/08 | 4/08 | 5/08 | 6/08 | 7/08 | 8/08 | 9/08 | 10/08 | 11/08 | 12/08 |
| 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% |
| 1/09 | 2/09 | 3/09 | 4/09 | 5/09 | 6/09 | 7/09 | 8/09 | 9/09 | 10/09 | 11/09 | 12/09 |
| 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.9% |
| 1/10 | 2/10 | 3/10 | 4/10 | 5/10 | 6/10 | 7/10 | 8/10 | 9/10 | 10/10 | 11/10 | 12/10 |
| 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% |
| 1/11 | 2/11 | 3/11 | 4/11 | 5/11 | 6/11 | 7/11 | 8/11 | 9/11 | 10/11 | 11/11 | 12/11 |
| 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% |
| 1/12 | 2/12 | 3/12 | 4/12 | 5/12 | 6/12 | 7/12 | 8/12 | 9/12 | 10/12 | 11/12 | 12/12 |
| 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% |
| 1/13 | 2/13 | 3/13 | 4/13 | 5/13 | 6/13 | 7/13 | 8/13 | 9/13 | 10/13 | 11/13 | 12/13 |
| 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% |
| 1/14 | 2/14 | 3/14 | 4/14 | 5/14 | 6/14 | 7/14 | 8/14 | 9/14 | 10/14 | 11/14 | 12/14 |
| 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% |
| 1/15 | 2/15 | 3/15 | 4/15 | 5/15 | 6/15 | 7/15 | 8/15 | 9/15 | 10/15 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% |
| 1/16 | 2/16 | 3/16 | 4/16 | 5/16 | 6/16 | 7/16 | 8/16 | 9/16 | 10/16 | 11/16 | 12/16 |
| 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.6% |
| 1/17 | 2/17 | 3/17 | 4/17 | 5/17 | 6/17 | 7/17 | 8/17 | 9/17 | 10/17 | 11/17 | 12/17 |
| 5.2% | 4.3% |