Bob Marshall’s November 2015 BLS Analysis for Recruiters; 12/4/15
November BLS Preface
TBMG Coaching Updates and News
Bob Marshall – Training/Coaching Updates:
Top Echelon, Free Recruiter Training Webinar, December 8th, 2015
My Top Echelon virtual presentation, “3 Proven Methods to Landing New Clients”, will be on Tuesday afternoon, December 8th, 2015, at 1pm, (Eastern Time), noon (Pacific Time). Contact Top Echelon for further details.
Thirty-Eighth Illuminati Think-Tank teleconference, Wednesday, December 9th, 2015
Mike Kittelson will participate in our thirty-eighth Illuminati Think-Tank teleconference to be held Wednesday afternoon, December 9th, 2015, at 3pm (Eastern Time), noon (Pacific Time). After the event, I will send a recording link of this session to all of the attendees. This is an open-mike event, so come with all of the questions you would like to ask Mike. Contact us for further details.
Taking the first step…
Over 35 years ago I began a career that turned out to be the most dynamic and rewarding professional move I have ever made. With the opportunity to earn an unlimited income at my fingertips, I began my career as a Recruiter.
Soon I became a student of the business and transitioned into Coaching. I traveled extensively and learned and listened and I packaged my material in a unique way. I studied many of the top producers in the recruiting industry and developed a series of training tools based on their proven success—training techniques that work time and time again.
I developed these tools and coaching techniques to help others achieve their goals as top producing professional recruiters. I continue to base all of my coaching and training tools on the same “nuts and bolts” approach I used as a recruiter.
I realize that taking that first step to engage a Coach to help you reach a higher level of production is not as easy as it sounds. After all, your training investment – and your time – are important and deserve every consideration. I share your feelings. I believe that how you approach your recruitment career matters…that you should get what you pay for, and then some…that you should enjoy your time with your Coach as you are benefiting from it…and that you should never settle for the ordinary.
If you are ready to take the first step, you can read descriptions of my coaching plans, and all of my products, on my website @ www.themarshallplan.org. Then, call me directly at 770-898-5550 or email me @ bob@themarshallplan.org.
Preface
Many of you continue to correspond with me about these monthly BLS analyses and have asked if it is OK to use them in your presentations. The answer is, of course, yes! That is why I spend the time to assemble this information. I would encourage any of you who have that desire to weave any of the information I have printed below into your presentations. I write these analyses for the benefit of our recruitment industry in general and for the members of my distribution list in particular. So use this info as you deem appropriate.
I also write these monthly BLS analyses to not only counterbalance the negative/incorrect press reporting of our general economic state but, more than that, to remind all of my recruitment readers that, at the level we work, there is no unemployment and so we must recruit to find the candidates our client companies so desperately need!
So, to my recruiter colleagues, get out there and do what your name implies…RECRUIT! When your client companies have unique and difficult positions to fill, they need you. When they are being picky, they need you. When they are longing for more production from fewer employees, they need you. Go fill those needs. These should be the halcyon days in the recruitment arena!
Finally, always remember that we are not in an HR business, but in a ‘circumventing the time factor in the hiring sequence’ business—and adding value to our client companies.
Inventories boost U.S. third-quarter GDP
by Lucia Mutikani, Reuters, November 24, 2015
The U.S. economy grew at a healthier clip in the third quarter than initially thought, but strong inventory accumulation by businesses could temper expectations of an acceleration in growth in the final three months of the year.
The Commerce Department said the nation’s gross domestic product grew at a 2.1% annual pace, not the 1.5% rate it reported last month. It said efforts by businesses to reduce an inventory bloat had not been as aggressive as previously believed.
Still, the pace of economic growth, which was also boosted by upward revisions to business spending on equipment, suggests a resilience that could help give the Federal Reserve confidence to raise interest rates next month. While consumer spending was revised down a bit, its pace remained brisk.
“This is a sturdy second GDP print for the third quarter when looking past the inventory swings,” said Robert Kavcic, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. “Importantly, domestic demand in the U.S. economy remains very solid, something that will surely give comfort to the Fed as it ponders its next move.”
When measured from the income side, the economy grew at a sturdy 3.1% clip, the fastest in a year and an acceleration from the second quarter’s 2.2% pace.
The third-quarter’s respectable expansion should set up the economy to achieve at least 2% growth in the second half of the year, around its long-run potential. In the wake of robust job growth in October and strong domestic demand, the Fed is expected to raise rates at its Dec. 15-16 policy meeting.
The GDP revision was in line with economists’ expectations.
U.S. stock index futures slightly pared losses after the data, while prices of Treasuries maintained gains. The dollar was trading lower against a basket of currencies.
LARGE INVENTORY ACCUMULATION
Businesses accumulated $90,200,000,000 worth of inventories in the third quarter, instead of the $56,800,000,000 reported last month. Businesses amassed more than $100,000,000,000 worth of inventories in each of the prior 2 quarters.
As a result, the change in inventories chopped off 0.59 percentage point from third-quarter GDP growth, rather than the 1.44 percentage points the government reported in October.
That, however, suggests inventories could be a drag on fourth quarter growth.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, grew at a 3.0 percent rate, down from the 3.2 percent rate estimated last month. The downward revisions mostly reflected weak outlays on communication services and utilities.
A measure of private domestic demand, which excludes trade, inventories and government spending, was revised down to a still sturdy 3.1% pace from the previously 3.2% rate. Though there are signs consumer spending slowed early in the fourth quarter, it is likely to remain supported by a tightening labor market, rising house prices, which are raising household wealth, as well as low inflation.
Growth in exports, which have been hurt by a strong dollar and sluggish global demand, were revised to show a slower 0.9 rate of increase. With imports rising at a slightly faster pace than previously reported, that left a trade deficit that subtracted 0.22 percentage point from GDP growth.
Trade was previously reported to have had a neutral impact on GDP growth.
Deep spending cuts by energy firms following a collapse in oil prices continued to weigh on growth. Spending on mining exploration, wells and shafts tumbled at a 47.1% rate, rather than the 46.9% pace reported last month.
Investment in nonresidential structures contracted at a 7.1% pace, instead of the previously reported 4.0% rate. However, business spending on equipment was revised up to a 9.5% rate from a 5.3 % pace.
The Commerce Department also reported that corporate profits after tax fell at a 1.6% rate in the third quarter after rising at a 2.6% pace in the second quarter. Profits, which have been undercut by the dollar’s strength and lower oil prices, were down 8.1% from a year ago, the biggest decline since the fourth quarter of 2008.
Construction employment up in 43 states
Daily News, November 23, 2015
Construction job growth rebounded last month as construction firms added jobs in 43 states and the District of Columbia between October 2014 and October 2015, according to an analysis of US Department of Labor data released today by the Associated General Contractors of America. Association officials cautioned that sustaining the job gains will require government support of construction training programs.
Arkansas posted the largest year-over-year percentage increase in construction employment at 18.1%. However, California led in terms of total number of jobs added, with 49,800 jobs added year over year.
“Construction job gains were more widespread than at any time since last February,” said Ken Simonson, chief economist for the association. “Several states that had recently experienced year-over-year job losses began adding workers, while net employment gains accelerated in numerous other states.”
In the past 12 months construction spending rose 14%, the fastest clip since 2006, according to Simonson. He said the spending data suggest contractors will continue to expand hiring if they can find qualified workers, but cautioned that may be difficult in many states because the number of unemployed jobseekers in October who last worked in construction was at the lowest October level since 2006.
Economists trim GDP forecast for US, but job growth estimates up
Daily News, November 13, 2015
The outlook for growth for US gross domestic product over the next two years looks slightly lower from that of 3 months ago but picks up steam in 2018, according to the fourth-quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. However, the 45 forecasters surveyed revised slightly upward their GDP estimate for 2015 and notably raised the 2018 estimate to 2.8% from 2.4% in the previous survey.
Growth in the US economy this quarter will be 2.6% at an annual rate, down from the previous estimate of 2.8%. The current projection for growth in the annual-average level of real GDP in 2015 rose to 2.4% in this survey from the previous estimate of 2.3%.
The forecasters revised upward their estimates for job gains in the first 3 quarters of 2016. However, projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job gains at a monthly rate of 241,800 in 2015 — down from the previous estimate of 244,200 — and 197,000 in 2016, down from the previous estimate of 200,500.
Unemployment rate projections are slightly improved from those of the previous survey. The forecasters predict the unemployment rate will be an annual average of 5.3% in 2015, before falling to 5.0% in 2016, 4.8% in 2017 and 4.7% in 2018.
IT skills shortage drives salaries, retention difficulty: Harvey Nash report
Daily News, November 11, 2015
A long-term IT skills shortage is driving tech salaries up and making it hard for companies to retain talent, according to the 4th annual Harvey Nash Technology Survey.
The report found 4 in 10 technologists changed jobs this year, and more than three-quarter of respondents, 77%, listed a good salary as the main motivator behind the switch. This is up 16% from a similar survey last year and pushed work/life balance — cited by 72% of respondents — out of the top spot. Opportunity to work on innovative projects rounded out the top motivators at 69%.
Globally, 53% of technology hiring managers reported skills shortages in 2015, up from 51% in the prior year’s survey.
The survey found 37% of tech workers received 10 or more inquiries from headhunters during the past year, while 62% of developers and 55% of all software engineers reported 10 or more approaches from headhunters.
“The IT skills shortage is dire, and we are seeing companies compete more than ever for this talent,” said Harvey Nash USAPAC President and CEO Bob Miano. “The technology career is changing rapidly: it’s mobile, flexible and entrepreneurial. The companies that embrace these shifts will attract and retain the best talent and successfully ride this technological wave.”
The survey, “Harvey Nash Technology Survey 2016: Are You Ready?” included 2,959 technology professionals from 30 countries and was conducted between July 14 and Oct. 26, 2015.
How GDP Data Blocks Us From Seeing the Recession
by Roger McKinney, Affluent Investor, November 9, 2015
Economists look to GDP to determine if the US economy is in a recession. Generally, it takes 2 quarters of the economy shrinking (economists call it negative growth, but they’re linguistically challenged) for the National Bureau of Economic Research to declare a recession. Of course, those 2 quarters indicate the bottom of the recession, by definition. The problem with GDP accounting is that it ignores about half the economy. GDP was designed to calculate new, value added production. Using standard accounting lingo, GDP is not gross anything; it’s net production. Net numbers, such as net profit, are the gross (total) sales minus the costs of doing business, such as material costs. That’s GDP. So GDP mostly counts retail sales and government spending while leaving out most industrial production. And that’s one reason that recessions take mainstream economists by surprise.
Recessions start in the mining, energy, industrial production sectors that are missing from GDP. They spread to shipping, railroads and trucking and finally hit retail, GDP, last. The odds are good that the US will hit its 2 quarters of shrinking GDP early next year, but that won’t be the beginning of the recession. It will be the bottom. The beginning will be calculated from the peak of previous GDP growth, probably the second quarter of 2015.
We have been watching the slow motion destruction of the industrial/capital goods sector for a while:
Year-over-Year, Durable Goods orders tumbled 3.6%, accelerating weakness from August, according to Zero Hedge.
From railroads to manufacturers to energy producers, businesses say they are facing a protracted slowdown in production, sales and employment that will spill into next year. Some of them say they are already experiencing a downturn, said a recent WSJ article.
“The industrial environment’s in a recession. I don’t care what anybody says,” Daniel Florness, CFO of Fastenal Co., told investors and analysts earlier this month.
Most of the new jobs created since the recession have come from the oil and gas industry.
Direct employment in the oil and gas industry rose 40% from 2007 through 2013, as compared to a decline of about 3% in the overall U.S. economy.
With the bust in oil and natural gas prices, those jobs are evaporating. Caterpillar, the epitome of capital goods production, has lost sales for a couple of years and looks forward to a bleak future:
Caterpillar said Thursday that its full-year sales and revenue for 2015 and 2016 have weakened, with 2016 revenue now projected to be 5% lower than 2015′s already diminished levels.
Walmart is facing declining sales and that may mean that the disaster in industrial production is finally bleeding over into retail. It’s only a matter of time before the stock market catches on and corrects the over valuation that has caused it to sail far above that justified by profits.
Food Stamp Beneficiaries Decline, Still Exceed 45,000,000 – Number has been over historic benchmark for 52 straight months
by Ali Meyer, AP, November 9, 2015
The number of individuals receiving benefits from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, otherwise known as food stamps, has exceeded 45,000,000 for 52 straight months, according to data released by the Department of Agriculture.
There were 45,464,508 beneficiaries of the food stamp program in August 2015, the latest month for which data is available. The number declined by 42,564 from July to August.
The USDA has been tracking data on participation in the program since fiscal year 1969, at which time average participation stood at about 2,800,000. This means that since then, participation in the program has increased by roughly 16-fold.
Dr. Edwin Feulner, the former president of the Heritage Foundation, says that it is troubling that participation in the food stamp program is so high despite improvements in the economy.
“Unemployment has dropped in recent years, yet still—far too many people are participating,” said Feulner. “1 out of every 7 Americans received SNAP benefits in 2014, and the program cost $74,100,000,000, making it one of the largest means-tested welfare programs.”
Feulner says that the program has waved work requirements for childless, able-bodied adults, which has led to an uptick in participation for this demographic.
“Before the 2008 recession, 55% of SNAP households consisted of children and the elderly,” he explains. “Now, however, a slight majority of recipients are non-elderly, able-bodied adults. There has also been an uptick in the number of working-age, able-bodied adults on SNAP who are not working.”
In addition, changes to food stamp policies made it easier for people to apply for benefits, made food stamps available to more people and the benefits became more generous, according to the department.
The number of food stamp recipients first exceeded 45,000,000 in May 2011. Since then, the number has consistently exceeded 45,000,000, hitting a record high of about 47,790,000 in December 2012.
Households on food stamps received an average benefit of $256.21 in August 2015, and total benefits for the month cost taxpayers $5,740,000,000.
The new ADP/Moody’s National Employment Report: 66% of all new job growth in November, 2015 came from Small and Mid-size Companies!
December 2, 2015
Private sector employment increased by 217,000 jobs from October to November (an increase from October’s 182,000 additions), according to the November ADP National Employment Report®, which is produced by ADP® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
By Company Size
Small businesses: 81,000
1-19 employees 46,000
20-49 employees 35,000
Medium businesses: 62,000
50-499 employees 62,000
Large businesses: 74,000
500-999 employees 57,000
1,000+ employees 17,000
By Sector
Goods producing 13,000
Service providing 204,000
Industry Snapshot
Construction 16,000
Manufacturing 6,000
Trade/transportation/utilities 30,000
Financial activities 9,000
Professional/business services 59,000
Payrolls for businesses with 49 or fewer employees increased by 81,000 jobs in November, down from October’s 91,000. Employment among companies with 50-499 employees increased by 62,000 jobs, a bit less than the 67,000 added last month. Employment at large companies – those with 500 or more employees – came in double the upwardly revised 37,000 jobs added in October at 74,000 for the month. Companies with over 1,000 employees gained 17,000 jobs, after adding 28,000 in October.
Goods-producing employment rose by 13,000 jobs in November, down from 22,000 the previous month. The construction industry added 16,000 jobs after gaining over 30,000 in each of the two previous months. Meanwhile, manufacturing rebounded from two straight months of shedding jobs to add 6,000 in November.
Service-providing employment rose by 204,000 jobs in November, a strong increase from an upwardly revised 174,000 in October. The report indicates that professional/business services contributed 59,000 jobs, the largest increase in this sector since June of this year. Trade/transportation/utilities grew by 30,000, off from 36,000 the previous month. The 9,000 new jobs added in financial activities were below the average of the last four months which ranged from 11,000 to 13,000 per month.
“The strongest gains in the service sector since June led to greater employment growth in November,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, VP and head of the ADP Research Institute. “The increase was driven in large part by a rebound in professional/business services jobs.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth remains strong and steady. The current pace of job creation is twice that needed to absorb growth in the working age population. The economy is fast approaching full employment and will be there no later than next summer.”
(The December 2015 ADP National Employment Report will be released at 8:15 a.m. ET on January 6, 2015).
Due to the important contribution that small businesses make to economic growth, employment data that are specific to businesses with 49 or fewer employees is reported each month in the ADP Small Business Report®, a subset of the ADP National Employment Report.
November 2015 Small Business Report Highlights
Total Small Business Employment: 81,000
●By Size
►1-19 employees 46,000
►20-49 employees 35,000
●By Sector for 1-49 Employees
►Goods Producing 7,000
►Service Producing 74,000
●By Sector for 1-19 Employees
►Goods Producing 6,000
►Service Producing 40,000
●By Sector for 20-49 Employees
►Goods Producing 1,000
►Service Producing 34,000
Bottom-line: To my audience of recruiters, always remember this: Our ‘bread and butter’, especially on the contingency side of the house, has historically been, and continues to be, small and medium-sized client companies. Along with the large companies, these companies need to be in included in your niche!
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary – September 2015
On November 12th, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the number of job openings was little changed at 5,500,000 on the last business day of September. Hires and separations were little changed at 5,000,000 and 4,800,000, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was 1.9% for the 6th consecutive month, and the layoffs and discharges rate remained unchanged at 1.2%. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by four geographic regions.
Job Openings
Job openings were little changed at 5,500,000 in September. The job openings rate for September was 3.7%. The number of job openings was little changed in September for total private and government. Job openings increased in professional and business services (+126,000) and retail trade (+64,000). The number of openings was little changed in all 4 regions.
The number of job openings (not seasonally adjusted) increased over the 12 months ending in September for total nonfarm and total private and was little changed for government. Job openings rose over the year for several industries with the largest increases occurring in professional and business services (+311,000), health care and social assistance (+191,000), and retail trade (+184,000). Job openings decreased over the year in mining and logging (-16,000). The number of job openings increased over the year in all 4 regions: South (+283,000), West (+259,000), Midwest (+208,000), and Northeast (+102,000).
Hires
The number of hires was 5,000,000 in September, little changed from August. The hires rate was 3.5%. The number of hires was little changed for total private and government in September. There was little change in the number of hires in all industries and regions over the month.
Over the 12 months ending in September, the number of hires (not seasonally adjusted) was little changed for total nonfarm, total private, and government. At the industry level, hires decreased in educational services (-74,000), finance and insurance (-43,000), and mining and logging (-13,000). There was little change in the number of hires in all 4 regions over the year.
Net Change in Employment
Large numbers of hires and separations occur every month throughout the business cycle. Net employment change results from the relationship between hires and separations. When the number of hires exceeds the number of separations, employment rises, even if the hires level is steady or declining. Conversely, when the number of hires is less than the number of separations, employment declines, even if the hires level is steady or rising. Over the 12 months ending in September 2015, hires totaled 60,900,000 and separations totaled 58,200,000, yielding a net employment gain of 2,700,000. These totals include workers who may have been hired and separated more than once during the year.
(The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey results for October 2015 are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, December 8, 2015).
As we recruiters know, that 5,500,000 number only represents 20% of the jobs currently available in the marketplace. The other 80% of job openings are unpublished and are filled through networking or word of mouth or by using a RECRUITER. So, those 5,500,000 published job openings now become a total of 27,500,000 published and hidden job orders.
In November there were 7,937,000 unemployed workers. What was the main reason why those workers were unemployed? Two Words: Structural Unemployment. If we can’t figure out how to educate and/or reeducate those 7,937,000 unemployed, then they will keep reappearing each month as a BLS unemployment statistic—as they have. In the meantime, our recruitment marketplace flourishes!
Online Labor Demand Increased 232,000 in November
December 2, 2015
• Strong November gain follows large October increase
• Gains were widespread across States and MSAs
• Services/Production occupations saw strength in holiday/seasonal-related categories
Online advertised vacancies increased 232,000 to 5,684,500 in November, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series. The October Supply/Demand rate stands at 1.45 unemployed for each advertised vacancy with a total of 2,500,000 more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies. The number of unemployed was around 7,900,000 in October.
“Following a weak second and third quarter, employer demand has strengthened in the fourth quarter with two months of strong increases,” said Gad Levanon, Managing Director of Macroeconomic and Labor Market Research at The Conference Board. “In 2015, employers have continued to show high levels of monthly labor demand along with a moderate average monthly growth.”
In November, the Services/Production category saw gains in most areas, with large gains in Office/Admin (+42.2), Food (+34.4), Transportation (+28.2) and Sales (+27.7). The Professional category saw gains in all areas with large gains in Healthcare (+28.5), Computer/Math (+17.9) and Business/Finance (+13.6).
The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® Data Series (HWOL) measures the number of new, first-time online jobs and jobs reposted from the previous month for over 16,000 Internet job boards, corporate boards and smaller job sites that serve niche markets and smaller geographic areas.
(The December 2015 Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series will be released at 10:00 AM ET on Wednesday, January 6, 2015).
U-6 Update
In November, 2015 the regular unemployment number remained at 5.0%, and the broader U-6 measure rose to 9.9%, almost twice as high as the regular unemployment figure.
The above 9.9% is referred to as the U6 unemployment rate (found in the monthly BLS Employment Situation Summary, Table A-15; Table A-12 in 2008 and before). It counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts “marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons.” Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week. And the “marginally attached workers” include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work. The age considered for this calculation is 16 year and over.
Here is a look at the November U-6 numbers for the past 12 years:
November 2014 11.4%
November 2013 13.1%
November 2012 14.4%
November 2011 15.6%
November 2010 17.0%
November 2009 17.2%
November 2008 12.6%
November 2007 8.4%
November 2006 8.0%
November 2005 8.7%
November 2004 9.4%
November 2003 10.1%
The November BLS Analysis
The unemployment rate is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a division of the US Department of Labor. The rate is found by dividing the number of unemployed by the total civilian labor force. On December 4th, 2015, the BLS published the most recent unemployment rate for November, 2015 of 5.0% (actually it is 5.046, up by .010% from 5.036% in October, 2015.
The unemployment rate was determined by dividing the unemployed of 7,937,000 (—up from the month before by 29,000—since November, 2014 this number has decreased by 1,134,000) by the total civilian labor force of 157,301,000 (up by 273,000 from October, 2015). Since November 2014, our total civilian labor force has increased by 899,000 workers.
(The continuing ‘Strange BLS Math’ saga): The BLS continues to increase the total Civilian Noninstitutional Population—this time up to 251,747,000. This is an increase of 206,000 from last month’s increase. In one year’s time, this population has increased by 2,903,000. The Civilian Noninstitutional Population has increased each month by…)
Up from October2015 by 206,000
Up from September 2015 by 216,000
Up from August 2015 by 229,000
Up from July 2015 by 220,000
Up from June 2015 by 213,000
Up from May 2015 by 208,000
Up from April 2015 by 189,000
Up from March 2015 by 186,000
Up from February 2015 by 191,000
Up from January 2015 by 176,000
Up from December 2014 by 696,000
Up from November 2014 by 143,000
Up from October 2014 by 187,000
Up from September 2014 by 211,000
Up from August 2014 by 217,000
Up from July 2014 by 206,000
Up from June 2014 by 209,000
Up from May 2014 by 192,000
Up from April 2014 by 183,000
Up from March 2014 by 181,000
Up from February 2014 by 173,000
Up from January 2014 by 170,000
Up from December 2013 by 170,000
Up from November 2013 by 178,000
Up from October 2013 by 186,000
Up from September 2013 by 213,000
Up from August 2013 by 209,000
Up from July 2013 by 203,000
Up from June 2013 by 204,000
Up from May 2013 by 189,000
Up from April 2013 by 188,000
Up from March 2013 by 180,000
Up from February 2013 by 167,000
Up from January 2013 by 165,000
Up from December 2012 by 313,000
Up from November 2012 by 176,000
Up from October 2012 by 191,000
Up from September 2012 by 211,000
Up from August 2012 by 206,000
Up from July 2012 by 212,000
Up from June 2012 by 199,000
Up from May 2012 by 189,000
Up from April 2012 by 182,000
Up from March 2012 by 180,000
Up from February 2012 by 169,000
Up from January 2012 by 335,000
Up from December 2011 by 2,020,000
And this month the BLS has increased the Civilian Labor Force to 157,301,000 (up from October by 273,000).
Subtract the second number (‘civilian labor force’) from the first number (‘civilian noninstitutional population’) and you get 94,446,000 ‘Not in Labor Force’—down by 67,000 from last month’s 94,513,000. Since November, 2014, 2,004,000 US workers have vanished! Where did those 2,004,000 potential workers disappear to in one year’s time? I am assuming they still have to eat and pay their rent. They still need money, don’t they? The government tells us that these NILFs got discouraged and just gave up looking for a job. My monthly recurring question is: “If that is the case, how do they survive when they don’t earn any money because they don’t have a job? Are they ALL relying on the government to support them??”
This month our Employment Participation Rate—the population 16 years and older working or seeking work—rose slightly to 62.5%. This is .1% above the historically low rate of 62.4% recorded in September and October—and, before that, the rate recorded in October 1977—9 months into Jimmy Carter’s presidency—38 years ago!
Final take on these numbers: Fewer people looking for work will always bring down the unemployment rate.
Anyway, back to the point I am trying to make. On the surface, these new unemployment rates are scary, but let’s look a little deeper and consider some other numbers.
The unemployment rate includes all types of workers—construction workers, government workers, etc. We recruiters, on the other hand, mainly place management, professional and related types of workers. That unemployment rate in November was 2.1% (this rate was .1% lower than last month’s 2.2%). Or, you can look at it another way. We usually place people who have college degrees. That unemployment rate in November was 2.5% (this rate was the same as the last three month’s 2.5%).
Now stay with me a little longer. This gets better. It’s important to understand (and none of the pundits mention this) that the unemployment rate, for many reasons, will never be 0%, no matter how good the economy is. Without boring you any more than I have already, let me add here that Milton Friedman (the renowned Nobel Prize-winning economist), is famous for the theory of the “natural rate of unemployment” (or the term he preferred, NAIRU, which is the acronym for Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment). Basically, this theory states that full employment presupposes an ‘unavoidable and acceptable’ unemployment rate of somewhere between 4-6% with it. Economists often settle on 5%, although the “New Normal Unemployment Rate” has been suggested to fall at 6.7%.
Nevertheless (if you will allow me to apply a ‘macro’ concept to a ‘micro’ issue), if this rate is applied to our main category of Management, Professional and Related types of potential recruits, and/or our other main category of College-Degreed potential recruits, we are well below the 4-6% threshold for full employment…we find no unemployment! None! Zilch! A Big Goose Egg!
THE IMPORTANCE OF GDP
“The economic goal of any nation, as of any individual, is to get the greatest results with the least effort. The whole economic progress of mankind has consisted in getting more production with the same labor…Translated into national terms, this first principle means that our real objective is to maximize production. In doing this, full employment—that is, the absence of involuntary idleness—becomes a necessary by-product. But production is the end, employment merely the means. We cannot continuously have the fullest production without full employment. But we can very easily have full employment without full production.”
–Economics in One Lesson, by Henry Hazlitt, Chapter X, “The Fetish of Full Employment”
On November 24th, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced the real gross domestic product (GDP) — the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes — increased at an annual rate of +2.1% in the third quarter of 2015, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.9%.
The GDP estimate is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.5%. With the second estimate for the third quarter, the decrease in private inventory investment was smaller than previously estimated.
The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, residential fixed investment, and exports that were partly offset by a negative contribution from private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
*The economy needs to expand at about +3% to keep the unemployment rate from rising.
(The “third” estimate for the 3rd Quarter 2015 GDP will be released on December 22, 2015).
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR UNEMPLOYMENT EVER TO BE ZERO
‘Unemployment’ is an emotional ‘trigger’ word…a ‘third rail’, if you will. It conjures up negative thoughts. But it is important to realize that, while we want everyone who wants a job to have the opportunity to work, unemployment can never be zero and, in fact, can be disruptive to an economy if it gets too close to zero. Very low unemployment can actually hurt the economy by creating an upward pressure on wages which invariably leads to higher production costs and prices. This can lead to inflation. The lowest the unemployment rate has been in the US was 2.5%. That was in May and June 1953 when the economy overheated due to the Korean War. When this bubble burst, it kicked off the Recession of 1953. A healthy economy will always include some percentage of unemployment.
There are five main sources of unemployment:
1. Cyclical (or demand-deficient) unemployment – This type of unemployment fluctuates with the business cycle. It rises during a recession and falls during the subsequent recovery. Workers who are most affected by this type of unemployment are laid off during a recession when production volumes fall and companies use lay-offs as the easiest way to reduce costs. These workers are usually rehired, some months later, when the economy improves.
2. Frictional unemployment – This comes from the normal turnover in the labor force. This is where new workers are entering the workforce and older workers are retiring and leaving vacancies to be filled by the new workers or those re-entering the workforce. This category includes workers who are between jobs.
3. Structural unemployment – This happens when the skills possessed by the unemployed worker don’t match the requirements of the opening—whether those be in characteristics and skills or in location. This can come from new technology or foreign competition (e.g., foreign outsourcing). This type of unemployment usually lasts longer than frictional unemployment because retraining, and sometimes relocation, is involved. Occasionally jobs in this category can just disappear overseas.
4. Seasonal unemployment – This happens when the workforce is affected by the climate or time of year. Construction workers and agricultural workers aren’t needed as much during the winter season because of the inclement weather. On the other hand, retail workers experience an increase in hiring shortly before, and during, the holiday season, but can be laid off shortly thereafter.
5. Surplus unemployment – This is caused by minimum wage laws and unions. When wages are set at a higher level, unemployment can often result. Why? To keep within the same payroll budget, the company must let go of some workers to pay the remaining workers a higher salary.
Other factors influencing the unemployment rate:
1. Length of unemployment – Some studies indicate that an important factor influencing a workers decision to accept a new job is directly related to the length of the unemployment benefit they are receiving. Currently, in 2015, workers in most states are eligible for up to 26 weeks of benefits from the regular state-funded unemployment compensation program, although eight states provide fewer weeks and two provide more. No additional weeks of federal benefits are available in any state: the temporary Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC) program expired at the end of 2013, and no state currently qualifies to offer more weeks under the permanent Extended Benefits (EB) program. Studies suggest that additional weeks of benefits reduce the incentive of the unemployed to seek and accept less desirable jobs.
2. Changes in GDP – Since hiring workers takes time, the improvement in the unemployment rate usually lags behind the improvement in the GDP.
WHERE RECRUITERS PLACE
Now back to the issue at hand, namely the recruiting, and placing, of professionals and those with college degrees.
If you take a look at the past few years of unemployment in the November “management, professional and related” types of worker category, you will find the following rates:
November 2014 2.8%
November 2013 3.1%
November 2012 3.6%
November 2011 4.2%
November 2010 4.7%
November 2009 4.6%
November 2008 3.2%
November 2007 1.8%
November 2006 1.7%
November 2005 2.1%
November 2004 2.4%
November 2003 2.9%
November 2002 2.9%
Here are the rates, during those same time periods, for “college-degreed” workers:
November 2014 3.2%
November 2013 3.4%
November 2012 3.9%
November 2011 4.4%
November 2010 5.1%
November 2009 4.9%
November 2008 3.2%
November 2007 2.2%
November 2006 1.9%
November 2005 2.2%
November 2004 2.5%
November 2003 3.1%
November 2002 2.9%
So, while November’s 2015 rates for these two categories, 2.1% and 2.5%, respectively, are trending very positively, when looking at the big picture, it’s not anything to be very happy about either—especially when we see how well we had it during the 2005-2007 time frame. But regardless, these unemployment numbers usually include a good number of job hoppers, job shoppers and rejects. We, on the other hand, are engaged by our client companies to find those candidates who are happy, well-appreciated, making good money and currently working and we entice them to move for even better opportunities—especially where new technologies are expanding. This will never change. And that is why, no matter the unemployment rate, we still need to market to find the best possible job orders and we still need to recruit to find the best possible candidates.
Below are the numbers for the over 25 year olds:
Less that H.S. diploma – Unemployment Rate
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
7.7% 7.4% 8.2% 7.9% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 9.7% 9.8% 10.4% 10.6% 10.9%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
12.0% 12.6% 13.3% 14.8% 15.5% 15.5% 15.4% 15.6% 15.0% 15.5% 15.0% 15.3%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
15.2% 15.6% 14.5% 14.7% 15.0% 14.1% 13.8% 14.0% 15.4% 15.3% 15.7% 15.3%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
14.2% 13.9% 13.7% 14.6% 14.7% 14.3% 15.0% 14.3% 14.0% 13.8% 13.2% 13.8%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
13.1% 12.9% 12.6% 12.5% 13.0% 12.6% 12.7% 12.0% 11.3% 12.2% 12.2% 11.7%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
12.0% 11.2% 11.1% 11.6% 11.1% 10.7% 11.0% 11.3% 10.3% 10.9% 10.8% 9.8%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
9.6% 9.8% 9.6% 8.9% 9.1% 9.1% 9.6% 9.1% 8.4% 7.9% 8.5% 8.6%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
8.5% 8.4% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.2% 8.3% 7.7% 7.9% 7.4% 6.9%
H.S. Grad; no college – Unemployment Rate
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
4.6% 4.7% 5.1% 5.0% 5.2% 5.2% 5.3% 5.8% 6.3% 6.5% 6.9% 7.7%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
8.1% 8.3% 9.0% 9.3% 10.0% 9.8% 9.4% 9.7% 10.8% 11.2% 10.4% 10.5%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.5% 10.8% 10.6% 10.9% 10.8% 10.1% 10.3% 10.0% 10.1% 10.0% 9.8%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.4% 9.5% 9.5% 9.7% 9.5% 10.0% 9.3% 9.6% 9.7% 9.6% 8.8% 8.7%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.4% 8.3% 8.0% 7.9% 8.1% 8.4% 8.7% 8.8% 8.7% 8.4% 8.1% 8.0%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.1% 7.9% 7.6% 7.4% 7.4% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.3% 7.3% 7.1%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.5% 6.4% 6.3% 6.3% 6.5% 5.8% 6.1% 6.2% 5.3% 5.7% 5.6% 5.3%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.4% 5.8% 5.4% 5.5% 5.5% 5.2% 5.2% 5.4%
Some College; or AA/AS – Unemployment Rate
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
3.7% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.6% 5.0% 5.1% 5.3% 5.5% 5.6%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
6.2% 7.0% 7.2% 7.4% 7.7% 8.0% 7.9% 8.2% 8.5% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
8.5% 8.0% 8.2% 8.3% 8.3% 8.2% 8.3% 8.7% 9.1% 8.5% 8.7% 8.1%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
8.0% 7.8% 7.4% 7.5% 8.0% 8.4% 8.3% 8.2% 8.4% 8.3% 7.6% 7.7%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
7.2% 7.3% 7.5% 7.6% 7.9% 7.5% 7.1% 6.6% 6.5% 6.9% 6.6% 6.9%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
7.0% 6.7% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5% 6.4% 6.0% 6.1% 6.0% 6.3% 6.4% 6.1%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.0% 6.2% 6.1% 5.7% 5.5% 5.0% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 4.8% 4.9% 4.9%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.2% 5.1% 4.8% 4.7% 4.4% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.3% 4.4% 4.4%
BS/BS + – Unemployment Rate
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 2.6% 3.1% 3.2% 3.7%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
3.8% 4.1% 4.3% 4.4% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.9% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.9% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.4% 4.7% 5.1% 4.8%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.2% 4.3% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.1%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% 3.4% 3.3%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 3.1% 3.2% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 2.9%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.8% 2.7% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
Management, Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 3.3% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 4.0% 4.6% 5.0% 5.5% 5.4% 5.2% 4.7% 4.6% 4.6%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 4.5% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 4.4% 4.5% 4.7% 4.6%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.7% 4.4% 4.3% 4.0% 4.4% 4.7% 5.0% 4.9% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 4.2%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 3.7% 4.0% 4.4% 4.8% 4.5% 3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.9%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 4.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.5% 3.4% 3.1% 2.9%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 2.9% 3.1% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 2.7%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.9% 2.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.9% 3.1% 2.9% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1%
Or employed…(,000)
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
52,165 52,498 52,681 52,819 52,544 52,735 52,655 52,626 53,104 53,485 53,274 52,548
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
52,358 52,196 52,345 52,597 52,256 51,776 51,810 51,724 52,186 52,981 52,263 52,131
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
52,159 52,324 52,163 52,355 51,839 51,414 50,974 50,879 51,757 51,818 52,263 51,704
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
51,866 52,557 53,243 53,216 52,778 52,120 51,662 51,997 52,665 52,864 52,787 52,808
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
53,152 53,208 53,771 54,055 54,156 53,846 53,165 53,696 54,655 55,223 54,951 54,635
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
54,214 54,563 54,721 54,767 54,740 54,323 54,064 54,515 55,013 55,155 55,583 54,880
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
55,096 55,501 56,036 55,896 56,202 55,714 55,381 55,646 56,365 56,759 57,110 56,888
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
57,367 57,596 57,805 57,953 58,155 57,710 57,392 57,288 58,105 58,456 58,667
And unemployed…(,000)
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
1,164 1,159 1,121 1,088 1,407 1,478 1,585 1,779 1,539 1,647 1,786 1,802
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
2,238 2,137 2,292 2,164 2,373 2,720 3,034 2,925 2,859 2,593 2,530 2,509
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
2,762 2,637 2,600 2,464 2,450 2,644 2,687 2,762 2,381 2,417 2,525 2,468
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
2,557 2,435 2,381 2,196 2,419 2,598 2,742 2,671 2,450 2,410 2,336 2,303
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
2,410 2,336 2,330 2,062 2,275 2,472 2,666 2,556 2,245 2,170 2,077 2,221
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
2,211 2,164 2,020 1,980 1,990 2,358 2,286 2,130 1,978 1,930 1,749 1,637
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
1,784 1,845 1,890 1,642 1,795 2,001 2,011 1,930 1,617 1,582 1,656 1,568
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
1,741 1,601 1,398 1,435 1,460 1,714 1,807 1,686 1,414 1,312 1,276
For a total Management, Professional & Related workforce of…(,000)
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
53,329 53,657 53,802 53,907 53,951 54,213 54,240 54,405 54,643 55,132 55,060 54,350
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
54,596 54,333 54,637 54,761 54,629 54,496 54,844 54,649 55,045 55,574 54,793 54,640
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
54,921 54,961 54,763 54,819 54,289 54,058 53,661 53,641 54,138 54,235 54,788 54,172
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
54,423 54,992 55,624 55,412 55,197 54,718 54,404 54,668 55,115 55,274 55,123 55,111
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
55,562 55,544 56,101 56,117 56,431 56,318 55,831 56,252 56,900 57,393 57,028 56,856
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
56,425 56,727 56,741 56,747 56,730 56,681 56,350 56,645 56,991 57,085 57,332 56,517
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
56,880 57,346 57,926 57,538 57,997 57,715 57,392 57,576 57,982 58,341 58,766 58,456
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
59,108 59,197 59,203 59,388 59,615 59,424 59,199 58,974 59,519 59,768 59,943
Management, Business and Financial Operations – Unemployment Rate
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 3.0% 3.6% 3.9%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.4% 5.2%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.2% 5.1% 5.4% 5.1% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.9% 4.3% 5.0% 5.5% 5.7%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
5.3% 4.9% 4.8% 4.6% 4.9% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 4.4%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.5% 4.4% 4.4% 4.0% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 4.1%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
4.0% 3.9% 3.5% 3.5% 3.8% 3.5% 3.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.7% 3.2% 3.1%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.4% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.9% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1%
Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.9% 3.2% 3.6% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.9% 4.6% 4.3% 4.1% 4.3% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3% 4.4% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.3% 4.1% 3.9% 3.5% 4.0% 4.9% 5.3% 5.1% 4.4% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.8% 5.5% 5.2% 4.3% 3.9% 3.5% 3.8%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 4.6% 4.7% 4.0% 3.6% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 2.6% 2.9% 4.0% 4.1% 3.9% 3.1% 2.7% 2.9% 2.8%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.9% 2.7% 2.2% 2.3% 2.1% 3.2% 3.6% 3.3% 2.4% 2.2% 2.2%
Sales & Related – Unemployment Rate
1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
5.2% 5.2% 4.8% 4.3% 5.1% 5.6% 6.2% 6.3% 5.7% 6.1% 6.5% 7.0%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
7.7% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 8.9% 9.1% 8.3% 8.7% 8.9% 9.5% 9.1% 8.9%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.2% 9.7% 9.2% 9.6% 9.4% 10.1% 9.0% 9.4% 9.1% 8.8% 8.3%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.3% 9.0% 8.5% 8.5% 9.4% 9.7% 9.4% 8.6% 9.4% 8.2% 7.8% 7.7%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.2% 7.9% 8.1% 7.6% 7.9% 8.4% 8.3% 8.6% 7.9% 7.0% 7.3% 7.0%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.5% 8.2% 7.7% 6.9% 7.1% 6.7% 6.9% 7.2% 7.5% 7.3% 7.0% 6.3%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
7.1% 7.7% 6.8% 5.8% 6.8% 6.1% 6.2% 5.6% 5.4% 5.2% 5.3% 5.0%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.8% 5.2% 5.8% 5.5% 5.8% 5.6% 5.8% 5.4% 5.6% 5.3% 5.1%